<p>目前市场上没有比人工智能和半导体股票更热门的交易了，这些股票正在迅速上涨。在过去一个月的走势之后，我认为值得退一步，诚实地问一个问题：这波上涨是否来得太快、太猛，还是说背后的故事如此强大，以至于唯一的错误就是不买这些热门股票？</p>
<p>这笔交易双方的数据确实引人注目。让我们来逐步分析。</p>
<h3>让所有人都在谈论的走势</h3>
<p>首先来看 <strong>半导体 ETF (SMH)</strong>。SMH 在过去 28 天中上涨了 24 天。在这 28 天里，SMH 上涨了 <strong>50%</strong>！</p>
<p>这是一种单向的动量，往往会随着时间的推移吸引越来越多的资本——后来的投资者纷纷涌入，空头被挤压，期权市场的做市商忙于对冲。当交易者不断追逐这些股票时，这种情况就会变成自我实现的预言。</p>
<h3>那么，为什么多头如此自信？</h3>
<p>这里变得真正有趣了……</p>
<p><strong>高盛</strong> 估计，五大 AI 巨头在 2026 年的资本支出将达到 <strong>7550 亿美元</strong>，同比增长 83%。而摩根士丹利则将这一估计进一步提高，预计该集团今年的支出将超过 8000 亿美元，并在 2027 年达到 <strong>1.1 万亿美元</strong>。</p>
<p>为了让 1.1 万亿美元更具可比性，这一数字将超过美国预计的国防支出！</p>
<p>当然，关键问题一直是：所有这些支出是否产生了真正的收入？</p>
<p>[text_ad]</p>
<h3>收入故事开始追赶上来</h3>
<p>根据《金融时报》，<strong>Anthropic</strong> 的年化收入预计将超过 <strong>450 亿美元</strong>——比去年年底的 90 亿美元的年化水平增长了五倍。在几个月内实现五倍增长。</p>
<p>现在，Anthropic 是一家私营公司，仅仅是一个数据点。但这个数据点反映了更广泛的趋势：AI 应用正在从 “酷炫的演示” 阶段转向大规模的企业部署。公司们正在付费。</p>
<h3>美国银行的警告</h3>
<p>但 SMH 的动量并不是唯一值得密切关注的事情。</p>
<p>美国银行指出了一个更具结构性的问题：他们所称的 “AI 大十”——七大巨头加上 <strong>博通 (AVGO)</strong>、<strong>美光 (MU)</strong> 和 <strong>超威半导体 (AMD)</strong> 的集中度，正接近历史上通常会出现重大市场顶部的峰值水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/1d3f2d7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1060x717+0+0/resize/464x314?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/1d3f2d7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1060x717+0+0/resize/464x314"/></p>
<p>这是一种不同于 “图表看起来过度扩展” 的警告。集中风险是一个结构性问题。当少数几家公司占据了标准普尔 500 指数总市值的过大份额时，市场失去了缓冲。一旦从这些公司中仅仅几只股票发生轮动，不仅会伤害这些股票，还会对整个市场产生涟漪效应。</p>
<h3>市场的其他部分</h3>
<p>另一个担忧是，尽管 AI 和半导体股票正在迅速上涨，但 “其他” 市场的表现却只是一般。</p>
<p>正如 @bespokeinvest 在周二所指出的：“昨天，标准普尔 500 指数在另一个历史高点收盘，几乎比其 50 日移动平均线高出 8%，但该指数的新 52 周低点数量超过了新 52 周高点数量（42 比 39），而且超过其 50 日移动平均线的股票比例降到了 50% 以下（48.6%）。”</p>
<h3>同时存在的两个真相</h3>
<p>那么，这将我们置于何处？我认为我们正面临一种情况，其中两件事情可以同时成立。</p>
<p>AI 交易已经扩展。SMH 的走势是历史性的。集中度水平发出警告。任何严重的回调触发因素——来自巨头的令人失望的财报、联邦储备的语气变化、地缘政治冲击——都可能迅速使这一群体下跌 15% 至 20%。</p>
<p>尽管存在风险，但基础设施投资是真实的，收入加速正在发生，而进行支出的公司并没有表现出恐慌。</p>
<p>退一步来看，我的看法是，这是一个你需要接触的主题，但在经历如此巨大的 AI 股票上涨后全力以赴可能会在音乐停止时造成极大的痛苦。</p>
<p>[author_ad]</p>

嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF

国联安半导体ETF

国泰中证全指集成电路ETF

<p>人工智能和半导体股票正经历显著的上涨势头，半导体 ETF（SMH）在 28 天内上涨了 50%。高盛预测人工智能领域的资本支出将大幅增加，预计到 2026 年将达到 7550 亿美元。然而，美国银行警告称，顶尖人工智能股票的集中风险可能导致市场不稳定。尽管存在风险，人工智能应用的收入增长正在加速，表明有强劲的基本趋势。建议投资者在考虑投资该领域时要谨慎，以防潜在的回调</p>

<p>There is no hotter trade in the market right now than AI and Semiconductor stocks, which have been racing higher. And after the move we’ve seen over the past month, I think it’s worth stepping back and asking an honest question: Has this run come too far, too fast – or is the underlying story so powerful that the only mistake would be not buying these hot stocks?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前市场上没有比人工智能和半导体股票更热门的交易了，这些股票正在迅速上涨。在过去一个月的走势之后，我认为值得退一步，诚实地问一个问题：这波上涨是否来得太快、太猛，还是说背后的故事如此强大，以至于唯一的错误就是不买这些热门股票？</p>
</div><p>The data on both sides of this trade is genuinely compelling. Let’s walk through it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这笔交易双方的数据确实引人注目。让我们来逐步分析。</p>
</div><h3>The Move That Has Everyone Talking</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>让所有人都在谈论的走势</h3>
</div><p>Start with the <strong>Semiconductor ETF (SMH)</strong>. The SMH has been up 24 out of the last 28 days. And during those 28 days, the SMH has rallied <strong>50%</strong>!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先来看 <strong>半导体 ETF (SMH)</strong>。SMH 在过去 28 天中上涨了 24 天。在这 28 天里，SMH 上涨了 <strong>50%</strong>！</p>
</div><p>This is the kind of one-directional momentum that tends to attract more and more capital as it unfolds – latecomers piling in, shorts getting squeezed, and options market makers scrambling to hedge. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders chase these stocks higher and higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一种单向的动量，往往会随着时间的推移吸引越来越多的资本——后来的投资者纷纷涌入，空头被挤压，期权市场的做市商忙于对冲。当交易者不断追逐这些股票时，这种情况就会变成自我实现的预言。</p>
</div><h3>So Why Are the Bulls So Confident?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>那么，为什么多头如此自信？</h3>
</div><p>Here’s where it gets genuinely interesting …</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里变得真正有趣了……</p>
</div><p><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> estimates that the five largest AI hyperscalers will spend <strong>$755 billion</strong> on capital expenditures in 2026 alone – an increase of 83% year over year. And Morgan Stanley pushes that estimate even higher, seeing the group top $800 billion this year on their way to <strong>$1.1 trillion</strong> in 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>高盛</strong> 估计，五大 AI 巨头在 2026 年的资本支出将达到 <strong>7550 亿美元</strong>，同比增长 83%。而摩根士丹利则将这一估计进一步提高，预计该集团今年的支出将超过 8000 亿美元，并在 2027 年达到 <strong>1.1 万亿美元</strong>。</p>
</div><p>To put $1.1 trillion in context, that figure would exceed the projected American spending on national defense!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了让 1.1 万亿美元更具可比性，这一数字将超过美国预计的国防支出！</p>
</div><p>The critical question, of course, has always been: Is all this spending generating real revenue?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，关键问题一直是：所有这些支出是否产生了真正的收入？</p>
</div><p>[text_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[text_ad]</p>
</div><h3>The Revenue Story Is Starting to Catch Up</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>收入故事开始追赶上来</h3>
</div><p>According to the <em>Financial Times</em>, <strong>Anthropic’s</strong> annualized revenue is on track to cross <strong>$45 billion</strong> – a fivefold increase from the $9 billion run rate it was carrying at the end of last year. A fivefold increase. In a matter of months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据《金融时报》，<strong>Anthropic</strong> 的年化收入预计将超过 <strong>450 亿美元</strong>——比去年年底的 90 亿美元的年化水平增长了五倍。在几个月内实现五倍增长。</p>
</div><p>Now, Anthropic is a private company and a single data point. But it’s a data point that speaks to something broader: AI applications are moving past the “cool demo” stage and into enterprise deployment at scale. Companies are paying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，Anthropic 是一家私营公司，仅仅是一个数据点。但这个数据点反映了更广泛的趋势：AI 应用正在从 “酷炫的演示” 阶段转向大规模的企业部署。公司们正在付费。</p>
</div><h3>A Warning from Bank of America</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美国银行的警告</h3>
</div><p>But the SMH momentum isn’t the only thing worth watching carefully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 SMH 的动量并不是唯一值得密切关注的事情。</p>
</div><p>Bank of America has flagged something arguably more structural: concentration in what they’re calling the “AI Big 10” – the Magnificent 7 plus <strong>Broadcom (AVGO)</strong>, <strong>Micron (MU)</strong>, and <strong>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)</strong> – is now approaching the kind of peak levels that have historically preceded meaningful market tops.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行指出了一个更具结构性的问题：他们所称的 “AI 大十”——七大巨头加上 <strong>博通 (AVGO)</strong>、<strong>美光 (MU)</strong> 和 <strong>超威半导体 (AMD)</strong> 的集中度，正接近历史上通常会出现重大市场顶部的峰值水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/1d3f2d7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1060x717+0+0/resize/464x314!/quality/90//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vazItcHJvZC1jYWJvdC5zMy51cy1lYXN0LTEuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9icmlnaHRzcG90LzE4LzVkLzFjNzBkZTI1NGRkODgyNGFkYzU2ZmFjODBmMmMvcGVhay1jb25jZW50cmF0aW9uLWJ1YmJsZXMucG5n" alt="" original-src="https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/1d3f2d7/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1060x717+0+0/resize/464x314!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fk2-prod-cabot.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F18%2F5d%2F1c70de254dd8824adc56fac80f2c%2Fpeak-concentration-bubbles.png"/></p>
<p>This is a different kind of warning than “the chart looks extended.” Concentration risk is a structural problem. When a small handful of names account for an outsized share of total S&amp;P 500 market cap, the market loses its cushion. A rotation out of just a few of these names doesn’t just hurt those stocks – it sends ripples through everything.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一种不同于 “图表看起来过度扩展” 的警告。集中风险是一个结构性问题。当少数几家公司占据了标准普尔 500 指数总市值的过大份额时，市场失去了缓冲。一旦从这些公司中仅仅几只股票发生轮动，不仅会伤害这些股票，还会对整个市场产生涟漪效应。</p>
</div><h3>The Rest of the Market</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>市场的其他部分</h3>
</div><p>Another concern is that while the AI and Semiconductor stocks are racing higher, “the rest” of the market is doing just ok.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个担忧是，尽管 AI 和半导体股票正在迅速上涨，但 “其他” 市场的表现却只是一般。</p>
</div><p>As noted by @bespokeinvest on Tuesday: “Yesterday, on a day that the S&amp;P 500 closed at another all-time high, nearly 8% above its 50-DMA, there were more new 52-week lows in the index than new 52-week highs (42 to 39), and the % of stocks above their 50-DMAs dropped below 50% (48.6%).”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如 @bespokeinvest 在周二所指出的：“昨天，标准普尔 500 指数在另一个历史高点收盘，几乎比其 50 日移动平均线高出 8%，但该指数的新 52 周低点数量超过了新 52 周高点数量（42 比 39），而且超过其 50 日移动平均线的股票比例降到了 50% 以下（48.6%）。”</p>
</div><h3>Two Truths at the Same Time</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>同时存在的两个真相</h3>
</div><p>So where does that leave us? I think we’re looking at a situation where two things can be true at once.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，这将我们置于何处？我认为我们正面临一种情况，其中两件事情可以同时成立。</p>
</div><p>The AI trade is extended. The SMH move is historic. Concentration levels are flashing caution. Any serious pullback trigger – a disappointing earnings report from a hyperscaler, a shift in Fed tone, a geopolitical shock – could send this group down 15–20% in a hurry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 交易已经扩展。SMH 的走势是历史性的。集中度水平发出警告。任何严重的回调触发因素——来自巨头的令人失望的财报、联邦储备的语气变化、地缘政治冲击——都可能迅速使这一群体下跌 15% 至 20%。</p>
</div><p>And while there are risks, the infrastructure investment is real, the revenue acceleration is happening and the companies doing the spending are not acting like they’re spooked.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存在风险，但基础设施投资是真实的，收入加速正在发生，而进行支出的公司并没有表现出恐慌。</p>
</div><p>Stepping back, my read is this is a theme you need to have exposure to, but to go all in after such a monster run in AI stocks could be extremely painful if/when the music stops.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>退一步来看，我的看法是，这是一个你需要接触的主题，但在经历如此巨大的 AI 股票上涨后全力以赴可能会在音乐停止时造成极大的痛苦。</p>
</div><p>[author_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[author_ad]</p>
</div>

Has the AI Trade Gotten Too Hot?

CabotWealthNetwork

嘉实中证全指集成电路ETF

易方达中证半导体材料设备主题ETF

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

国泰CES半导体芯片行业ETF

招商中证半导体产业ETF

国泰中证半导体材料设备主题ETF

国联安科创芯片设计ETF

华夏国证半导体芯片ETF

高盛

摩根士丹利

美国银行

博通

美光科技

标普 500 指数

GS Hldg R

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

人工智能交易是否已经过热？