<p>你好，读者。</p>
<p>今天的 <strong><em>聪明投资</em></strong> 由汤姆·杨带来。</p>
<p>两周前，加拿大水文学家达里·埃伊索森报告称，他在短短六天内建立了一个人工智能交易平台。</p>
<p>“我告诉你这个是因为这让我感到恐惧，” 他在一篇广受关注的彭博社评论文章中写道。“我拥有北极环境科学的博士学位。我一生中从未交易过任何东西。”</p>
<p>通过使用 Anthropic 的 Claude Code，埃伊索森创建了一个系统，“五年前，这将是一个获得资金的金融科技初创公司的核心知识产权，团队有八人。” 该平台从 RSS 源、网络搜索、Reddit 和 Twitter 获取新闻，然后在三个金融交易所进行交易。</p>
<p>现在，我确实相信他的算法非常成功。新闻和社交媒体通常能预测股市回报。事实上，我希望他继续赚钱；博士们的薪水远远不够他们所做的工作。</p>
<p>但我也很担心……出于完全不同的原因。</p>
<p>你看，埃伊索森担心建立一个人工智能交易平台是多么简单。如果他能做到，那么还有什么能阻止其他人这样做呢？他担心像他这样的交易机器人可能很快会接管金融市场。</p>
<p>与此同时，我感到震惊，因为我知道这些算法是如何工作的。</p>
<p>我自己也建立过几个这样的算法，而埃伊索森的具体方法的成功意味着我们正进入一个股市的狂热阶段，在这个阶段，炒作和关注比基本面更重要。</p>
<p>这就是为什么今天我想考虑最新人工智能狂热的危险——以及更聪明的投资路径。</p>
<h2><strong>人工智能的热门交易正在过热</strong></h2>
<p>过去两个月，半导体股票经历了疯狂的波动——这些公司处于人工智能革命的一个瓶颈。数据中心需要大量的芯片，而全球生产根本无法满足需求。</p>
<p>为了说明这一点，左边是一张曼哈顿的图片，这个 23 平方英里的岛屿上居住着 166 万人，约占犹他州人口的一半。而右边是《鲨鱼坦克》明星凯文·欧莱利的 “Stratos” 提案的叠加图，这是一个计划在犹他州博克斯埃尔德县建设的 9 千兆瓦人工智能数据中心。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-8.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-8.jpg"/></p>
<p>这个大约 62 平方英里的项目将几乎是曼哈顿的三倍，消耗的电力是其居民目前使用的四倍。</p>
<p>更令人震惊的是，Stratos 只是未来几年计划建设的几个超大规模数据中心之一。<strong>Meta Platforms Inc. (META)</strong> 目前正在路易斯安那州建设一个名为 Hyperion 的 5 千兆瓦数据中心，<strong>而软银集团公司 (SFTBY)</strong> 和能源部最近共同宣布在俄亥俄州建设一个 10 千兆瓦的站点。</p>
<p>这些雄心勃勃的项目每个都需要数英里长的服务器机架，每个机架上堆满了成千上万的芯片。而这些芯片几乎在安装后就需要更换，因为 GPU 的使用寿命只有五到七年。</p>
<p>想象一下，把你家每一平方英尺都填满计算机……然后再这样做 968,000 次……每当你的烟雾报警器需要更换时，就再重复一次。</p>
<p>这为芯片制造商和内存制造商带来了丰厚的利润，供应根本无法跟上需求。这也使华尔街变成了一个赌场，任何押注于芯片制造商的人似乎都能获胜。</p>
<p>在过去六周中，半导体股票的价格（以 <strong>iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)</strong> 为衡量标准）上涨了多达 70%，在本周早些时候的抛售之前。这一上涨包括了像 <strong>Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)</strong> 这样的稳健公司和像 <strong>Macom Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. (MTSI)</strong> 这样的波动不定的公司，后者在 2025 年尽管需求强劲，却仍然亏损了 5400 万美元。</p>
<p>我们知道这一趋势越来越受到散户投资者的推动。</p>
<p>这就是为什么我并不感到惊讶，水文学家埃伊索森的算法据说表现得如此出色。研究表明，投资者情绪可以帮助预测次日的股票走势，尤其是在像 2021 年 1 月那样的散户交易狂潮期间，<strong>GameStop Corp. (GME)</strong> 和 <strong>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC)</strong> 飙升至聚光灯下。</p>
<p>同样的力量现在正在推动半导体股票价格达到疯狂的高度……</p>
<h2><strong>人工智能狂热开始显得危险</strong></h2>
<p><strong>Intel Corp. (INTC)</strong> 的股票现在交易的前瞻性市盈率约为 100 倍，市销率为 10 倍——甚至高于互联网泡沫的巅峰。Macom（去年亏损 5400 万美元的那家公司）现在的前瞻性市盈率约为 60 倍。</p>
<p>“半导体的价格变得荒谬，在某些情况下甚至比 1999 年更极端，” Strategas Securities 的技术和宏观策略负责人克里斯·维罗恩在给客户的报告中写道。“抛物线图表可能会自我发展，我们不假装知道财富何时会逆转。”</p>
<p>然而，我们都知道 1999 年和 2021 年对投机者来说都以不好的结局告终。单靠动量无法证明高得离谱的价格，而 “荒谬” 的价格往往会急剧回落。</p>
<p>GameStop 的股票在 2021 年 1 月底达到历史高点后暴跌，目前仍比那时低 80%。<strong>Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)</strong> 花了 25 年才重新达到其互联网泡沫的高峰。</p>
<p>这就是为什么远离大幅下跌风险的股票至关重要。也是为什么我和埃里克对参与半导体热潮持谨慎态度。我们看到的估值是，股票仅凭情绪就有可能损失 50% 或更多。</p>
<p>相反，埃里克推荐了一种名为 <strong>“人工智能幸存者”</strong> 的投资类别。这些 “未来-proof” 的企业生产人工智能无法复制或替代的商品和服务。</p>
<p>例如，包括在主要行业中运营的公司，如……</p>
<ul>
<li>农业</li>
<li>各种形式的能源</li>
<li>矿业</li>
<li>酒店和旅游</li>
</ul>
<p>他们与人工智能热潮的距离几乎可以说是遥不可及。因此，他们提供的安全边际在这个泡沫市场中变得越来越重要。</p>
<p>人工智能的资源消耗也远超任何人的预期。芯片依然短缺，内存和硬盘等行业在经历多年行业起伏后，现在仅由少数几家公司控制。制造过程现在对新竞争者来说实在过于复杂，难以进入市场。</p>
<p>因此，当清算来临时——这一定会发生——结果将抹去多年的业绩。</p>
<p>在人工智能方面更聪明的做法不是追逐每个人已经拥有的股票。找出 Eric 推荐的替代方案——在 <strong><em>Fry’s Investment Report</em></strong> 中。</p>
<p><strong>点击这里了解更多。</strong></p>
<p>下次再见，</p>
<p>Thomas Yeung, CFA</p>
<p>市场分析师，<strong>InvestorPlace</strong></p>

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

<p>这篇文章讨论了由加拿大水文学家 Darri Eythorsson 在短短六天内创建的一个人工智能交易平台，提出了对这种技术在金融市场中潜在风险的担忧。Eythorsson 的平台利用新闻和社交媒体在金融交易所进行交易，突显了创建人工智能交易系统的简易性。文章还提到，由于对人工智能数据中心的需求，半导体股票最近出现了激增，并指出市场的波动性和散户投资者的影响。作者警告说，炒作可能掩盖投资中的基本面，带来危险</p>

<p>Hello, Reader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你好，读者。</p>
</div><p>Tom Yeung here with today’s <strong><em>Smart Money</em></strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的 <strong><em>聪明投资</em></strong> 由汤姆·杨带来。</p>
</div><p>Two weeks ago, Canadian hydrologist Darri Eythorsson reported that he had built an AI trading platform in just six days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两周前，加拿大水文学家达里·埃伊索森报告称，他在短短六天内建立了一个人工智能交易平台。</p>
</div><p>“I am telling you this because it terrifies me,” he wrote in a widely viewed opinion piece on Bloomberg. “I have a Ph.D. in Arctic environmental science. I have never traded anything in my life.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我告诉你这个是因为这让我感到恐惧，” 他在一篇广受关注的彭博社评论文章中写道。“我拥有北极环境科学的博士学位。我一生中从未交易过任何东西。”</p>
</div><p>By using Anthropic’s Claude Code, Eythorsson had vibe-coded a system that “five years ago, would have been the core intellectual property of a funded fintech startup with a team of eight.” The platform takes news from RSS feeds, web searches, Reddit, and Twitter, and then trades that information on three financial exchanges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过使用 Anthropic 的 Claude Code，埃伊索森创建了一个系统，“五年前，这将是一个获得资金的金融科技初创公司的核心知识产权，团队有八人。” 该平台从 RSS 源、网络搜索、Reddit 和 Twitter 获取新闻，然后在三个金融交易所进行交易。</p>
</div><p>Now, I do believe his algorithm is very successful. News and social media often predict stock market returns. In fact, I hope he continues making money; Ph.D.s don’t get paid nearly enough for the work they do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，我确实相信他的算法非常成功。新闻和社交媒体通常能预测股市回报。事实上，我希望他继续赚钱；博士们的薪水远远不够他们所做的工作。</p>
</div><p>But I am worried, too… for an entirely different reason.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我也很担心……出于完全不同的原因。</p>
</div><p>You see, Eythorsson was concerned about how easy it was to throw together an AI trading platform. If he could do it, then what stops others from doing the same? He fretted that trading bots like his could soon take over financial markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你看，埃伊索森担心建立一个人工智能交易平台是多么简单。如果他能做到，那么还有什么能阻止其他人这样做呢？他担心像他这样的交易机器人可能很快会接管金融市场。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, I’m alarmed because I know <em>how</em> these algorithms work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，我感到震惊，因为我知道这些算法是如何工作的。</p>
</div><p>I’ve built several of them myself, and the success of Eythorsson’s specific approach means we’re entering a manic phase of stock markets where hype and attention matter more than the fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我自己也建立过几个这样的算法，而埃伊索森的具体方法的成功意味着我们正进入一个股市的狂热阶段，在这个阶段，炒作和关注比基本面更重要。</p>
</div><p>That’s why, today, I’d like to consider the dangers of the latest AI mania – and the smarter investing path to follow instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么今天我想考虑最新人工智能狂热的危险——以及更聪明的投资路径。</p>
</div><h2><strong>AI’s Hottest Trade Is Overheating</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>人工智能的热门交易正在过热</strong></h2>
</div><p>It’s been a wild two months for semiconductor stocks – the companies at one bottleneck of the AI Revolution. Data centers require immense numbers of chips, and global production is simply not enough to meet demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去两个月，半导体股票经历了疯狂的波动——这些公司处于人工智能革命的一个瓶颈。数据中心需要大量的芯片，而全球生产根本无法满足需求。</p>
</div><p>To illustrate, on the left is a picture of Manhattan, a 23-square-mile island and home to 1.66 million people, around half the population of Utah. And on the right is an overlay of <em>Shark Tank</em> star Kevin O’Leary’s “Stratos” proposal, a 9-gigawatt AI data center planned for Box Elder County, Utah.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了说明这一点，左边是一张曼哈顿的图片，这个 23 平方英里的岛屿上居住着 166 万人，约占犹他州人口的一半。而右边是《鲨鱼坦克》明星凯文·欧莱利的 “Stratos” 提案的叠加图，这是一个计划在犹他州博克斯埃尔德县建设的 9 千兆瓦人工智能数据中心。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-8.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/image-8.jpg"/></p>
<p>The roughly 62-square-mile project would be almost three times the size of Manhattan and consume four times more power than its residents currently use.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个大约 62 平方英里的项目将几乎是曼哈顿的三倍，消耗的电力是其居民目前使用的四倍。</p>
</div><p>More shockingly, Stratos is only one of several hyperscale data centers planned over the next several years. <strong>Meta Platforms Inc. (META)</strong> is currently constructing a 5-GW data center called Hyperion in Louisiana, <strong>while SoftBank Group Corp. (SFTBY)</strong> and the Department of Energy recently co-announced a 10-GW site in Ohio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人震惊的是，Stratos 只是未来几年计划建设的几个超大规模数据中心之一。<strong>Meta Platforms Inc. (META)</strong> 目前正在路易斯安那州建设一个名为 Hyperion 的 5 千兆瓦数据中心，<strong>而软银集团公司 (SFTBY)</strong> 和能源部最近共同宣布在俄亥俄州建设一个 10 千兆瓦的站点。</p>
</div><p>Each of these ambitious projects will need miles of server racks, stacked with thousands of chips each. And those chips will need to be replaced almost as soon as they’re installed, because GPUs only have a lifespan of five to seven years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些雄心勃勃的项目每个都需要数英里长的服务器机架，每个机架上堆满了成千上万的芯片。而这些芯片几乎在安装后就需要更换，因为 GPU 的使用寿命只有五到七年。</p>
</div><p>Imagine filling every square foot of your house with computers… then doing that another 968,000 times… and then doing it all over again every time your smoke alarm is due for replacement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想象一下，把你家每一平方英尺都填满计算机……然后再这样做 968,000 次……每当你的烟雾报警器需要更换时，就再重复一次。</p>
</div><p>That’s proved a bonanza for chipmakers and memory makers, where supply simply cannot keep up with demand. It’s also turned Wall Street into a casino where anyone betting on chipmakers seems to win.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为芯片制造商和内存制造商带来了丰厚的利润，供应根本无法跟上需求。这也使华尔街变成了一个赌场，任何押注于芯片制造商的人似乎都能获胜。</p>
</div><p>Over the past six weeks, prices of the semiconductor stocks, as measured by the <strong>iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)</strong>, rose as much as 70% before this week’s earlier selloff. That rise has included both solid players like <strong>Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)</strong> and wildly inconsistent ones like <strong>Macom Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. (MTSI)</strong>, a firm that managed to <em>lose</em> $54 million in 2025 despite roaring demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去六周中，半导体股票的价格（以 <strong>iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)</strong> 为衡量标准）上涨了多达 70%，在本周早些时候的抛售之前。这一上涨包括了像 <strong>Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)</strong> 这样的稳健公司和像 <strong>Macom Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. (MTSI)</strong> 这样的波动不定的公司，后者在 2025 年尽管需求强劲，却仍然亏损了 5400 万美元。</p>
</div><p>We know this trend has been increasingly driven by retail investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们知道这一趋势越来越受到散户投资者的推动。</p>
</div><p>That’s why it doesn’t surprise me that hydrologist Eythorsson’s algorithms have reportedly worked so well. Research has shown that investor sentiment can help predict next-day stock moves, especially during retail trading frenzies like the one in January 2021 that sent <strong>GameStop Corp. (GME)</strong> and <strong>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC)</strong> soaring into the spotlight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么我并不感到惊讶，水文学家埃伊索森的算法据说表现得如此出色。研究表明，投资者情绪可以帮助预测次日的股票走势，尤其是在像 2021 年 1 月那样的散户交易狂潮期间，<strong>GameStop Corp. (GME)</strong> 和 <strong>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC)</strong> 飙升至聚光灯下。</p>
</div><p>The same forces are now pushing prices of semiconductor stocks to mad heights…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样的力量现在正在推动半导体股票价格达到疯狂的高度……</p>
</div><h2><strong>AI Mania Is Starting to Look Dangerous</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>人工智能狂热开始显得危险</strong></h2>
</div><p>Shares of <strong>Intel Corp. (INTC)</strong> now trade at roughly 100X forward earnings and 10X price-to-sales – higher even than during the dot-com peak. Macom (the one that lost $54 million last year) now trades at roughly 60X forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Intel Corp. (INTC)</strong> 的股票现在交易的前瞻性市盈率约为 100 倍，市销率为 10 倍——甚至高于互联网泡沫的巅峰。Macom（去年亏损 5400 万美元的那家公司）现在的前瞻性市盈率约为 60 倍。</p>
</div><p>“Semis are getting silly and are now in some cases as or more extreme than 1999,” Chris Verrone, head of technical and macro strategy at Strategas Securities, said in a note to clients. “Parabolic charts can take a life of their own and we don’t pretend to know the day or the hour fortunes reverse.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“半导体的价格变得荒谬，在某些情况下甚至比 1999 年更极端，” Strategas Securities 的技术和宏观策略负责人克里斯·维罗恩在给客户的报告中写道。“抛物线图表可能会自我发展，我们不假装知道财富何时会逆转。”</p>
</div><p>However, we all know that 1999 and 2021 both ended poorly for speculators. Momentum alone cannot justify sky-high prices, and “silly” prices have a habit of coming back down hard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我们都知道 1999 年和 2021 年对投机者来说都以不好的结局告终。单靠动量无法证明高得离谱的价格，而 “荒谬” 的价格往往会急剧回落。</p>
</div><p>GameStop’s stock nose-dived after hitting its all-time high in late January 2021, and shares remain 80% below that. <strong>Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)</strong> took 25 years to re-achieve its dot-com peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GameStop 的股票在 2021 年 1 月底达到历史高点后暴跌，目前仍比那时低 80%。<strong>Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)</strong> 花了 25 年才重新达到其互联网泡沫的高峰。</p>
</div><p>That’s why it’s essential to stay away from stocks with large downside. And why both Eric and I are hesitant about jumping in on the semiconductor craze. We’re seeing valuations where it <em>is</em> possible for stocks to lose 50% or more on sentiment alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么远离大幅下跌风险的股票至关重要。也是为什么我和埃里克对参与半导体热潮持谨慎态度。我们看到的估值是，股票仅凭情绪就有可能损失 50% 或更多。</p>
</div><p>Instead, Eric recommends a category of AI investing called <strong>“AI Survivors.”</strong> These “future-proof” enterprises produce goods and services that AI cannot replicate or replace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，埃里克推荐了一种名为 <strong>“人工智能幸存者”</strong> 的投资类别。这些 “未来-proof” 的企业生产人工智能无法复制或替代的商品和服务。</p>
</div><p>Examples would include companies that operate in major industries like…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，包括在主要行业中运营的公司，如……</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Agriculture</li>
<li>Energy in its various forms</li>
<li>Mining</li>
<li>Hospitality and travel</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>农业</li>
<li>各种形式的能源</li>
<li>矿业</li>
<li>酒店和旅游</li>
</ul>
</div><p>They are about as far as you can get from the AI mania. Therefore, they provide a margin of safety that’s becoming increasingly important in this frothy market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们与人工智能热潮的距离几乎可以说是遥不可及。因此，他们提供的安全边际在这个泡沫市场中变得越来越重要。</p>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence also continues to consume far more resources than anyone anticipated. Chips remain in short supply, and industries like memory and hard drives are now controlled by only a few companies after years of industry ups and downs. The manufacturing process is now simply too complex for new competitors to enter the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能的资源消耗也远超任何人的预期。芯片依然短缺，内存和硬盘等行业在经历多年行业起伏后，现在仅由少数几家公司控制。制造过程现在对新竞争者来说实在过于复杂，难以进入市场。</p>
</div><p>So, when a reckoning comes – and it will – the results will wipe out years of performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，当清算来临时——这一定会发生——结果将抹去多年的业绩。</p>
</div><p>The smarter play on AI isn’t chasing the stocks everyone already owns. Find out what Eric is recommending instead — at <strong><em>Fry’s Investment Report</em></strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在人工智能方面更聪明的做法不是追逐每个人已经拥有的股票。找出 Eric 推荐的替代方案——在 <strong><em>Fry’s Investment Report</em></strong> 中。</p>
</div><p><strong>Click here to learn more.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>点击这里了解更多。</strong></p>
</div><p>Until next time,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下次再见，</p>
</div><p>Thomas Yeung, CFA</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thomas Yeung, CFA</p>
</div><p>Market Analyst, <strong>InvestorPlace</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场分析师，<strong>InvestorPlace</strong></p>
</div>

人人喜爱的 AI 交易即将变得危险