<p>在霍尔木兹海峡的僵局无法打破的情况下，投资者是否应该调整他们在华尔街的高通胀持续时期的策略？</p>
<p>伊朗的冲突在最近几周仍然是一个快速发展的新闻故事，但世界上最繁忙的航运通道之一却没有同样的情况。霍尔木兹海峡负责全球海运石油贸易 20% 的运输，其长期关闭对美国的通胀预测产生了严重影响。</p>
<p>随着 4 月份的年度通胀率攀升至 3.8%，预测市场 Kalshi 的交易者已将通胀率超过 5% 的可能性考虑在内，概率为 40%。这一变化将使通胀率达到自 2023 年 2 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>Vanguard 最近提供了一个更为平稳的 预测为 2.8%，但也承认中东的长期战争将使通胀率难以降至 3% 以下。</p>
<p>由于地缘政治的不确定性，通胀是否会对华尔街产生比预期更长久的影响？让我们看看如果利率继续上升，投资者如何应对市场：</p>
<h2>高通胀意味着加息</h2>
<p>投资者应牢记的最大因素之一是，通胀不可避免地会导致美联储加息。这是因为采取措施减缓借贷可以帮助平抑消费并减缓生活成本的上升。</p>
<p>在 4 月份公布的通胀数据高于预期后，市场交易者预计在 2026 年底之前加息的概率为 37%。美联储干预的可能性将取决于能源成本以及飙升的油价是否能够得到平抑。</p>
<p>对于投资者来说，预期的加息将直接影响高科技股票，如标准普尔 500 指数的 “七大巨头”。这将是由于借贷成本的增加，可能对更具投机性的股票产生不利影响。</p>
<p>高通胀在美国并不新鲜，标准普尔 500 指数在 2022 年以-18.11% 的总回报收尾，利率在 6 月份达到 9.1% 的峰值。该指数的表现为自 2008 年金融危机以来的最差年份铺平了道路。</p>
<p>这对投资者意味着什么？为高通胀率做准备应包括购买在加息面前具有一定韧性的股票，并考虑周期性选择，以便在中东冲突继续影响市场时提供长期的稳定性。</p>
<h2>建筑行业的机会</h2>
<p>未来几年可能提供更多韧性的一个行业是建筑业，该行业将受益于特朗普政府的保护主义政策和努力将供应链带回美国的措施。</p>
<p>美国的重大项目在 2025 年 总计 1970 亿美元，这是连续第四年超过 10 亿美元的建筑项目增长。</p>
<p>这可能会为领先的建筑股票如卡特彼勒 (NYSE: CAT) 和沃尔坎材料 (NYSE: VMC) 提供更多增长机会，因为越来越多的公司希望转向国内供应链。</p>
<p>建筑行业也可能会看到更多增长，因为它继续采用新兴技术以提高准确性和减少超支，人工智能和集中项目管理系统为这个在数字转型方面挣扎的行业带来了更大的效率。</p>
<h2>消费品的强劲表现</h2>
<p>高通胀时期可能使投资者更难以增长他们的投资组合，但寻找具有品牌忠诚度等经济护城河的韧性股票可以帮助确保稳定的收入流，从而支持底线。</p>
<p>拥有忠实客户基础的公司，如丘奇&amp;德怀特 (NYSE: CHD) 和味好美 (NYSE: MKC)，可能会发现自己在根据通胀提高价格时处于更有利的位置，同时避免消费者需求的损失。</p>
<p>鉴于中东的地缘政治不确定性是由能源紧缩驱动的，公用事业股票如德文能源 (NYSE: DVN) 也有很多机会，可能会受益于对支持人工智能数据中心供电的需求增加。</p>
<h2>克服通胀压力</h2>
<p>你只需看看 2022 年就能看到高通胀如何阻碍华尔街的增长，但这并不意味着没有机会可以有效应对不确定性。</p>
<p>另一个需要记住的事情是，标准普尔 500 指数迅速从疫情后的下滑中恢复，并飙升至新的历史高点。这意味着重新调整你的投资组合而不是抛售可能是管理财富的好方法。</p>
<p>通过关注那些具有韧性的股票，准备应对高通胀时期将变得更加容易，这也是保护自己免受霍尔木兹海峡长期干扰前景的良好措施。</p>
<p><em>免责声明：在发布之日，Dmytro Spilka 并未直接或间接持有本文提到的任何证券的头寸。本文中表达的观点仅代表作者本人。Dmytro Spilka 不打算在接下来的 72 小时内对上述任何证券进行交易。</em></p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性的编辑。</em></strong></p>

味好美-Non-Voting

丘奇&德怀特

全球必需消费品股指数 ETF - iShares

日常消费品 ETF - Vanguard

日常消费品 ETF - SPDR

塔吉特

开市客

克罗格

<p>霍尔木兹海峡的持续冲突引发了对持续高通胀的担忧，预计通胀率可能上升至超过 5%。投资者被建议调整策略，关注建筑和日常消费品等抗压性行业。高通胀通常会导致美联储加息，从而影响高科技股票。由于保护主义政策和国内供应链的变化，建筑行业可能会出现机会。拥有强大品牌忠诚度的公司，如丘奇&德怀特和味好美，更能有效应对价格上涨。总体而言，应对通胀需要战略性地调整投资组合</p>

<p>With the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz refusing to break, should investors adapt their strategy for a sustained period of high inflation on Wall Street?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在霍尔木兹海峡的僵局无法打破的情况下，投资者是否应该调整他们在华尔街的高通胀持续时期的策略？</p>
</div><p>The conflict in Iran has remained a fast-moving news story in recent weeks, but the same can't be said for one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. The Strait of Hormuz has been responsible for the passage of 20% of the global supply of the seaborne oil trade, and its prolonged closure has had a severe impact on inflation forecasts in the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的冲突在最近几周仍然是一个快速发展的新闻故事，但世界上最繁忙的航运通道之一却没有同样的情况。霍尔木兹海峡负责全球海运石油贸易 20% 的运输，其长期关闭对美国的通胀预测产生了严重影响。</p>
</div><p>With headline annual inflation climbing to 3.8% in April, traders on prediction market Kalshi have factored in the prospect of a rise to beyond 5% at a 40% chance. The move would see the highest rate of inflation since February 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 4 月份的年度通胀率攀升至 3.8%，预测市场 Kalshi 的交易者已将通胀率超过 5% 的可能性考虑在内，概率为 40%。这一变化将使通胀率达到自 2023 年 2 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Vanguard has offered a calmer prediction of 2.8% in recent days but also acknowledges that a prolonged war in the Middle East would make it ‘difficult' for inflation to move below 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Vanguard 最近提供了一个更为平稳的 预测为 2.8%，但也承认中东的长期战争将使通胀率难以降至 3% 以下。</p>
</div><p>Could inflation impact Wall Street for longer than expected as a result of geopolitical uncertainty? Let's take a look at how investors can navigate markets should rates continue to rise:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于地缘政治的不确定性，通胀是否会对华尔街产生比预期更长久的影响？让我们看看如果利率继续上升，投资者如何应对市场：</p>
</div><h2>High Inflation Means Rate Hikes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高通胀意味着加息</h2>
</div><p>One of the biggest factors investors should keep in mind is that inflation invariably leads to Fed rate hikes. This is because taking measures to slow borrowing can help calm spending and slow the rising cost of living.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应牢记的最大因素之一是，通胀不可避免地会导致美联储加息。这是因为采取措施减缓借贷可以帮助平抑消费并减缓生活成本的上升。</p>
</div><p>Following the announcement of higher-than-expected inflation figures in April, market traders priced in a 37% probability of a rate hike before the end of 2026. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve intervention will boil down to energy costs and whether soaring oil prices can be calmed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 月份公布的通胀数据高于预期后，市场交易者预计在 2026 年底之前加息的概率为 37%。美联储干预的可能性将取决于能源成本以及飙升的油价是否能够得到平抑。</p>
</div><p>For investors, a prospective rate hike will directly impact high-tech stocks like the S&amp;P 500's Magnificent Seven. This will be down to increases in the cost of borrowing, which could adversely impact more speculative stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者来说，预期的加息将直接影响高科技股票，如标准普尔 500 指数的 “七大巨头”。这将是由于借贷成本的增加，可能对更具投机性的股票产生不利影响。</p>
</div><p>High inflation is nothing new in the United States, and the S&amp;P 500 closed out 2022 with a total return of -18.11% as rates peaked at 9.1% in June. The performance of the index paved the way for its worst year since the financial crisis of 2008.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高通胀在美国并不新鲜，标准普尔 500 指数在 2022 年以-18.11% 的总回报收尾，利率在 6 月份达到 9.1% 的峰值。该指数的表现为自 2008 年金融危机以来的最差年份铺平了道路。</p>
</div><p>What does this mean for investors? Preparing for high inflation rates should involve buying stocks that have some resilience in the face of interest rate hikes, and factoring in cyclical options could offer long-term strength should the conflict in the Middle East continue to impact markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对投资者意味着什么？为高通胀率做准备应包括购买在加息面前具有一定韧性的股票，并考虑周期性选择，以便在中东冲突继续影响市场时提供长期的稳定性。</p>
</div><h2>Opportunities in Construction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>建筑行业的机会</h2>
</div><p>One sector that may offer more resilience over the coming years is construction, which is set to benefit from the Trump administration’s protectionist policies and efforts to reshore supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来几年可能提供更多韧性的一个行业是建筑业，该行业将受益于特朗普政府的保护主义政策和努力将供应链带回美国的措施。</p>
</div><p>Megaprojects in the US totaled $197 billion in 2025, representing the fourth consecutive year of growth for construction projects worth more than one billion dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的重大项目在 2025 年 总计 1970 亿美元，这是连续第四年超过 10 亿美元的建筑项目增长。</p>
</div><p>This is likely to see more opportunities for growth among leading construction stocks like Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC), both of which are likely to see demand for their products grow as more firms look to switch to domestic supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能会为领先的建筑股票如卡特彼勒 (NYSE: CAT) 和沃尔坎材料 (NYSE: VMC) 提供更多增长机会，因为越来越多的公司希望转向国内供应链。</p>
</div><p>The construction industry is also likely to see more growth as it continues to embrace emerging technologies for more accuracy and fewer overruns, with AI and centralized project management systems driving far greater efficiency for an industry that's struggled to embrace digital transformation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建筑行业也可能会看到更多增长，因为它继续采用新兴技术以提高准确性和减少超支，人工智能和集中项目管理系统为这个在数字转型方面挣扎的行业带来了更大的效率。</p>
</div><h2>Strength in Consumer Staples</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>消费品的强劲表现</h2>
</div><p>Periods of high inflation can make it far more difficult for investors to grow their portfolios, but finding resilient stocks with high economic moats in the form of brand loyalty can help to ensure steady revenue streams that can support bottom lines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高通胀时期可能使投资者更难以增长他们的投资组合，但寻找具有品牌忠诚度等经济护城河的韧性股票可以帮助确保稳定的收入流，从而支持底线。</p>
</div><p>Companies that have a loyal customer base, like Church &amp; Dwight (NYSE: CHD) and McCormick &amp; Company (NYSE: MKC), may find themselves better positioned to raise their prices in line with inflation while avoiding losses in consumer demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拥有忠实客户基础的公司，如丘奇&amp;德怀特 (NYSE: CHD) 和味好美 (NYSE: MKC)，可能会发现自己在根据通胀提高价格时处于更有利的位置，同时避免消费者需求的损失。</p>
</div><p>Given that the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has been driven by an energy squeeze, there's also plenty of opportunity when it comes to utilities stocks like Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), which may also benefit from increased demand to support the powering of AI data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于中东的地缘政治不确定性是由能源紧缩驱动的，公用事业股票如德文能源 (NYSE: DVN) 也有很多机会，可能会受益于对支持人工智能数据中心供电的需求增加。</p>
</div><h2>Overcoming Inflation Stresses</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>克服通胀压力</h2>
</div><p>You only have to look to 2022 to see how high inflation can hamper growth on Wall Street, but this doesn't have to mean that there aren't opportunities to navigate the uncertainty effectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你只需看看 2022 年就能看到高通胀如何阻碍华尔街的增长，但这并不意味着没有机会可以有效应对不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Another thing to keep in mind is that the S&amp;P 500 was quick to recover from its post-pandemic downturn and soar to new record highs. This means that repurposing your portfolio rather than selling up can be a great way to manage your wealth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个需要记住的事情是，标准普尔 500 指数迅速从疫情后的下滑中恢复，并飙升至新的历史高点。这意味着重新调整你的投资组合而不是抛售可能是管理财富的好方法。</p>
</div><p>By looking to stocks that are characterized by their resilience, it's far easier to brace yourself for a period of high inflation and it can be a great measure to protect yourself against the prospect of a prolonged period of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过关注那些具有韧性的股票，准备应对高通胀时期将变得更加容易，这也是保护自己免受霍尔木兹海峡长期干扰前景的良好措施。</p>
</div><p><em>Disclosure: On the date of publication, Dmytro Spilka did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. Dmytro Spilka does not intend to make a trade in any of the securities mentioned above in the next 72 hours.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>免责声明：在发布之日，Dmytro Spilka 并未直接或间接持有本文提到的任何证券的头寸。本文中表达的观点仅代表作者本人。Dmytro Spilka 不打算在接下来的 72 小时内对上述任何证券进行交易。</em></p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性的编辑。</em></strong></p>
</div>

用于应对通胀压力的股票