<p>不需要经济学家告诉你，今年春天美国人在财务上感受到显著压力。伊朗持续战争最明显的影响之一就是对油价的影响。</p>
<p>美国人平均每加仑支付 4.50 美元，自冲突开始以来上涨了约 50%。燃料价格影响几乎所有事物，这在四月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨中得到了体现，CPI 的增幅高于预期，达到了 3.8%。</p>
<p>分析师们现在将目光转向五月及以后，而美联储刚刚向股票投资者传递了一些糟糕的消息，发布了最新的通胀预测。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzAwMDUvMjYwODgyODAxODZfMDliZTcwMmUxYl9rLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzAwMDUvMjYwODgyODAxODZfMDliZTcwMmUxYl9rLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：美联储。</p>
<h2>通胀何时会减缓？</h2>
<p>在上个月通胀激增之后，消费者和投资者可能都在想，伊朗战争和唐纳德·特朗普总统持续的关税影响是否是暂时的。由于霍尔木兹海峡没有明确的完全重开的路径，通常通过该通道运输的商品出现短缺，进一步加大了从食品杂货到航空票价等各种费用的价格压力。</p>
<p>至少在目前，没有通胀减缓的迹象。克利夫兰联邦储备银行根据最新数据更新了五月的预测，预计本月 CPI 将上涨 4.2%。这将是自 2023 年四月以来 CPI 读数的最高年增幅。</p>
<p>克利夫兰联邦储备银行还发布了对美国制造业和服务业首席执行官的最新预期调查。他们预计未来 12 个月的通胀平均约为 3.7%，高于之前调查的 3.1%。换句话说，他们认为短期内不会出现降价。</p>
<p>虽然如果供应限制缓解，油价和其他商品相关价格可能会下降，但许多日常商品和服务的成本并不会那么容易下降。投资者应该为另一个通胀超过 3% 的年份做好准备，无论伊朗战争多快解决。然而，战争持续的时间越长，通胀可能越严重。</p>
<p>历史上，相对较高的通胀导致股票投资者的结果显著恶化。</p>
<h2>股票如何应对高通胀？</h2>
<p><strong>标普 500</strong> 历史上在通胀之前的平均年化回报率约为 10%。考虑到通胀后，这一数字降至接近 7%。</p>
<p>但股市通常不会通过更高的名义回报来抵消更高的通胀。事实上，低通胀时期通常会产生显著更好的通胀调整回报，而高通胀时期则相对较差。根据经济学家罗伯特·希勒自 1871 年以来的股票市场回报和通胀数据分析，一旦现行通胀率超过 3%，标普 500 的实际回报将显著下降。</p>
<p>这种相关性可能与各种原因有关。高通胀对消费者造成压力，可能促使他们减少消费，从而减缓经济增长。这可能促使美联储提高利率，增加企业的借贷成本，使债券对股票投资者更具吸引力。高通胀还提高了投资者对未来收益的折现率，降低了他们今天愿意为股票支付的金额。</p>
<p>到目前为止，标普 500 在很大程度上避免了通胀的负面影响。投资者对这些担忧不以为然，在三月份大幅抛售后，股票飙升。截止目前，该基准指数的交易接近历史最高点。以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 恢复得更快，人工智能股票趋势继续推动市场。</p>
<p>但到目前为止，投资者对通胀对公司盈利的影响数据有限。第一季度通胀相对温和，仅在三月份开始上升。</p>
<p>投资者可能要等到许多公司在三个月左右后报告第二季度财报时，才能看到真正的影响。通胀持续高企的时间越长，对今年剩余时间的股价影响就会越大。</p>

标普 500 指数

美国大盘成长股 ETF - Charles Schwab

罗素 2000 价值股指数 ETF - iShares

<p>美联储在五月的通胀预测中显示，消费者价格指数（CPI）将上升至 4.2%，主要受到高油价和持续供应限制的推动。首席执行官们预计未来一年通胀将平均达到 3.7%。历史上，高通胀对股票回报产生负面影响，当通胀超过 3% 时，标普 500 的实际回报显著下降。尽管当前市场处于高位，但持续的通胀可能导致投资者面临更糟糕的结果，因为即将在即将发布的报告中，企业盈利的真实影响将变得更加清晰</p>

<p>It doesn't take an economist to tell you that Americans are feeling a significant strain on their finances this spring. One of the most noticeable impacts of the ongoing war in Iran is the effect on gas prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不需要经济学家告诉你，今年春天美国人在财务上感受到显著压力。伊朗持续战争最明显的影响之一就是对油价的影响。</p>
</div><p>Americans are paying an average of $4.50 per gallon, up about 50% since the start of the conflict. Fuel prices impact just about everything, and that's reflected in April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase, which came in higher than anticipated at 3.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国人平均每加仑支付 4.50 美元，自冲突开始以来上涨了约 50%。燃料价格影响几乎所有事物，这在四月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨中得到了体现，CPI 的增幅高于预期，达到了 3.8%。</p>
</div><p>Analysts are now turning their attention to May and beyond, and the Federal Reserve just shared some terrible news for stock investors with its latest inflation forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师们现在将目光转向五月及以后，而美联储刚刚向股票投资者传递了一些糟糕的消息，发布了最新的通胀预测。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzAwMDUvMjYwODgyODAxODZfMDliZTcwMmUxYl9rLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F870005%2F26088280186_09be702e1b_k.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：美联储。</p>
</div><h2>When will inflation subside?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通胀何时会减缓？</h2>
</div><p>After last month's spike in inflation, consumers and investors alike may be wondering whether the impacts of the war in Iran and President Donald Trump's ongoing tariffs are transitory. Without a clear path to fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, there's a shortage of commodities that are typically transported through the passageway, putting further price pressure on all sorts of expenses from groceries to airline fares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上个月通胀激增之后，消费者和投资者可能都在想，伊朗战争和唐纳德·特朗普总统持续的关税影响是否是暂时的。由于霍尔木兹海峡没有明确的完全重开的路径，通常通过该通道运输的商品出现短缺，进一步加大了从食品杂货到航空票价等各种费用的价格压力。</p>
</div><p>At least for the time being, there are no signs of inflation subsiding. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland updated its forecast for May with the most recent data and expects the CPI to climb 4.2% this month. That would be the highest year-over-year increase in the CPI reading since April 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至少在目前，没有通胀减缓的迹象。克利夫兰联邦储备银行根据最新数据更新了五月的预测，预计本月 CPI 将上涨 4.2%。这将是自 2023 年四月以来 CPI 读数的最高年增幅。</p>
</div><p>The Cleveland Fed also released its most recent survey of expectations from U.S. CEOs in the manufacturing and services sectors. They see inflation averaging about 3.7% over the next 12 months, up from 3.1% in the previous survey. In other words, they don't see lower pricing coming anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克利夫兰联邦储备银行还发布了对美国制造业和服务业首席执行官的最新预期调查。他们预计未来 12 个月的通胀平均约为 3.7%，高于之前调查的 3.1%。换句话说，他们认为短期内不会出现降价。</p>
</div><p>While gas prices and other commodity-linked pricing could come down if supply constraints ease, costs for many everyday goods and services don't drop as easily. Investors should prepare for another year of inflation exceeding 3%, regardless of how quickly the war in Iran is resolved. However, the longer it goes on, the worse inflation could get.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然如果供应限制缓解，油价和其他商品相关价格可能会下降，但许多日常商品和服务的成本并不会那么容易下降。投资者应该为另一个通胀超过 3% 的年份做好准备，无论伊朗战争多快解决。然而，战争持续的时间越长，通胀可能越严重。</p>
</div><p>Historically, relatively high inflation has led to significantly worse outcomes for stock investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，相对较高的通胀导致股票投资者的结果显著恶化。</p>
</div><h2>How do stocks handle high inflation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票如何应对高通胀？</h2>
</div><p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> has historically produced an average annualized return of around 10% before inflation. That drops closer to 7% when you factor in inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>标普 500</strong> 历史上在通胀之前的平均年化回报率约为 10%。考虑到通胀后，这一数字降至接近 7%。</p>
</div><p>But the stock market doesn't usually offset higher inflation with higher nominal returns. In fact, periods of low inflation generally produce significantly better inflation-adjusted returns than periods of high inflation. There's a significant drop-off in real returns for the S&amp;P 500 once prevailing inflation rates exceed 3%, based on an analysis of stock market returns and inflation from economist Robert Shiller's data going back to 1871.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但股市通常不会通过更高的名义回报来抵消更高的通胀。事实上，低通胀时期通常会产生显著更好的通胀调整回报，而高通胀时期则相对较差。根据经济学家罗伯特·希勒自 1871 年以来的股票市场回报和通胀数据分析，一旦现行通胀率超过 3%，标普 500 的实际回报将显著下降。</p>
</div><p>That correlation could be linked to all sorts of causes. High inflation weighs on consumers, which may push them to spend less and slow down the economy. It may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, increasing borrowing costs for businesses and making bonds more attractive to stock investors. High inflation also increases the discount rate that investors assign to future earnings, decreasing the amount they're willing to pay for a stock today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种相关性可能与各种原因有关。高通胀对消费者造成压力，可能促使他们减少消费，从而减缓经济增长。这可能促使美联储提高利率，增加企业的借贷成本，使债券对股票投资者更具吸引力。高通胀还提高了投资者对未来收益的折现率，降低了他们今天愿意为股票支付的金额。</p>
</div><p>So far, the S&amp;P 500 has largely avoided the negative impact of inflation. Investors have brushed off the concerns, sending stocks soaring after a huge sell-off in March. The benchmark index now trades near an all-time high as of this writing. The tech-heavy <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> has recovered even faster, as the artificial intelligence stock trend continues to drive the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，标普 500 在很大程度上避免了通胀的负面影响。投资者对这些担忧不以为然，在三月份大幅抛售后，股票飙升。截止目前，该基准指数的交易接近历史最高点。以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 恢复得更快，人工智能股票趋势继续推动市场。</p>
</div><p>But investors have limited data on the impact of inflation on companies' bottom lines so far. Inflation remained relatively mild in the first quarter, only starting its ascent in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但到目前为止，投资者对通胀对公司盈利的影响数据有限。第一季度通胀相对温和，仅在三月份开始上升。</p>
</div><p>Investors may not see the true impact on many companies until they report their second-quarter earnings in three months or so. The longer inflation remains elevated, the worse it will be for stock prices throughout the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能要等到许多公司在三个月左右后报告第二季度财报时，才能看到真正的影响。通胀持续高企的时间越长，对今年剩余时间的股价影响就会越大。</p>
</div>

From Bad to Worse: The Federal Reserve's May Inflation Forecast Is Terrible News for Stock Investors

- 美国消费者面临财务压力，油价上涨至每加仑 $4.50，增幅达 50%。  
- 四月消费者价格指数 (CPI) 超出预期，增幅为 3.8%。  
- 联邦储备预计五月 CPI 将上升至 4.2%，并表示高通胀或导致股市表现不佳。

Motley Fool

超大盘股成长 ETF - Vanguard

罗素 1000 成长指数 ETF - iShares

Avantis US Large Cap Value ETF

标普 600 小盘价值股 ETF - SPDR

全美价值股指数 ETF - Vanguard

美国小盘价值股 ETF - Avantis

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

中盘价值股 ETF - Vanguard

核心标普美国增长 ETF - iShares

标普 500 ETF - iShares

标普 400 中盘价值股 ETF - Vanguard

全美成长股指数 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

纳指 100 ETF - Invesco

美国小盘成长股 ETF - Vanguard

纳斯达克综合指数

从坏到更糟：美联储五月的通胀预测对股票投资者而言是个坏消息