<p>摩根大通发布了一份研究报告，指出中国 4 月份的信贷数据显著低于预期，社会融资规模（流量）和新增人民币贷款均远低于市场共识和银行的预测。其中，家庭贷款和企业贷款的单月收缩均为历史最大。该银行认为，4 月份信贷表现疲弱部分受到季节性因素的影响，但幅度超出预期。它建议采取更为防御性的投资组合定位，并青睐贷款管道更强的四大国有银行。</p>
<p>报告指出，4 月份社会融资规模（流量）为 6200 亿元人民币，约为市场预期的 1.25 万亿元人民币和摩根大通预测的 1.24 万亿元人民币的一半。新增人民币贷款减少了 100 亿元人民币，远低于市场预期的 300 亿元人民币和银行预测的 271 亿元人民币。家庭贷款环比收缩 7870 亿元人民币，而企业贷款环比收缩 8700 亿元人民币，均创下单月最大降幅。票据融资大幅增加了 1.24 万亿元人民币以填补缺口，该银行认为这对综合贷款收益率和净利差发出了负面信号。</p>
<p>该银行指出，零售贷款需求进一步恶化，同比下降幅度扩大至 0.7%。短期贷款和中长期贷款均出现环比收缩，表明抵押贷款和消费信贷需求持续疲弱。尽管一线和二线城市的房地产交易量略有改善，但抵押贷款的疲软表现仍令人惊讶。M1 和 M2 的增长差距略微扩大至负 3.6%，反映出相对于预防性储蓄，交易性货币需求较弱，进一步强化了信贷需求疲软的信号。 (ad/u)</p>

建设银行

中国银行

IDCBY

<p>摩根大通的报告指出，中国四月份的信贷数据显著低于预期，社会融资规模为 6200 亿元人民币，新发人民币贷款减少了 100 亿元。家庭和企业贷款的月度降幅创下历史新高。该银行建议采取防御性策略，偏向于四大国有银行，因为它们的贷款管道更为强劲，同时指出零售贷款需求恶化以及 M1 与 M2 增长之间的差距扩大</p>

<p>JPM released a research report stating that Chinas credit data for April were significantly weaker than expected, with Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy (Flow) and new RMB loans both far below market consensus and the banks forecasts. Among them, the single-month contraction in both household loans and corporate loans was the largest on record. The bank believes Aprils weak credit performance was partly affected by seasonal factors, but the magnitude exceeded expectations. It recommends a more defensive portfolio positioning and favors the Big Four state-owned banks with stronger loan pipelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通发布了一份研究报告，指出中国 4 月份的信贷数据显著低于预期，社会融资规模（流量）和新增人民币贷款均远低于市场共识和银行的预测。其中，家庭贷款和企业贷款的单月收缩均为历史最大。该银行认为，4 月份信贷表现疲弱部分受到季节性因素的影响，但幅度超出预期。它建议采取更为防御性的投资组合定位，并青睐贷款管道更强的四大国有银行。</p>
</div><p>The report noted that Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy (Flow) in April amounted to RMB620 billion, about half of the market expectation of RMB1.25 trillion and JPMs forecast of RMB1.24 trillion. New RMB loans decreased by RMB10 billion, far below the market expectation of RMB300 billion and the banks forecast of RMB271 billion. Household loans contracted by RMB787 billion MoM, while corporate loans contracted by RMB870 billion MoM, both marking the largest single-month declines on record. Bill financing increased sharply by RMB1.24 trillion to fill the gap, which the bank believes sends a negative signal for blended loan yields and NIM.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，4 月份社会融资规模（流量）为 6200 亿元人民币，约为市场预期的 1.25 万亿元人民币和摩根大通预测的 1.24 万亿元人民币的一半。新增人民币贷款减少了 100 亿元人民币，远低于市场预期的 300 亿元人民币和银行预测的 271 亿元人民币。家庭贷款环比收缩 7870 亿元人民币，而企业贷款环比收缩 8700 亿元人民币，均创下单月最大降幅。票据融资大幅增加了 1.24 万亿元人民币以填补缺口，该银行认为这对综合贷款收益率和净利差发出了负面信号。</p>
</div><p>The bank pointed out that retail loan demand further deteriorated, with the YoY decline widening to 0.7%. Both short-term and medium- to long-term loans recorded MoM contractions, indicating continued weakness in mortgage and consumer credit demand. Although property transaction volumes in first- and second-tier cities showed slight improvement, the weak performance of mortgage loans remained surprising. The gap between M1 and M2 growth slightly widened to negative 3.6%, reflecting weaker transactional money demand relative to precautionary savings, further reinforcing signals of subdued credit demand. (ad/u)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行指出，零售贷款需求进一步恶化，同比下降幅度扩大至 0.7%。短期贷款和中长期贷款均出现环比收缩，表明抵押贷款和消费信贷需求持续疲弱。尽管一线和二线城市的房地产交易量略有改善，但抵押贷款的疲软表现仍令人惊讶。M1 和 M2 的增长差距略微扩大至负 3.6%，反映出相对于预防性储蓄，交易性货币需求较弱，进一步强化了信贷需求疲软的信号。 (ad/u)</p>
</div>

JPM: China Apr Credit Data Far Below Expectations, Favor Big Four State-owned Banks for Defensive Positioning

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摩根大通表示，中国四月份的信贷数据远低于预期，建议选择四大国有银行以采取防御性策略