<p>[北京] 由于贸易仍然是一个显著的亮点，尽管伊朗战争对全球产生了影响，中国的消费在四月份可能扩张的速度远低于工业的增速。</p>
<p>根据彭博社调查的经济学家的中位数预测，周一（5 月 18 日）公布的数据将显示，零售销售在上个月同比增长 1.9%。这将继 3 月份的 1.7% 增长之后，延续了疫情之外任何一年最糟糕的开局之一。</p>
<p>工业生产预计增长 6%，高于前一个月的 5.7%。之前公布的数据表明，上个月出口激增 14.1%。综合来看，这些月度数据将显示出与中国经济在第一季度的类似模式，当时经济增长意外加速。</p>
<p>“我们预计 K 型分化将在四月份继续，” 花旗集团经济学家余向荣在一份预览数据的报告中写道。“工业生产仍然保持活力”，但这与 “疲软的国内需求形成对比，” 他们表示。</p>
<p>虽然美国的 “K 型” 讨论主要集中在低收入家庭被抛在后面，但在中国，这个问题与整体国内消费者有关。类似的差异在亚洲各国中也出现，例如韩国——尤其是全球人工智能繁荣的收益未能惠及大部分劳动力。</p>
<p>预计中国的出口将保持强劲，受到全球人工智能投资周期和可再生能源产品强劲需求的支持，因为伊朗战争导致石油和天然气行业受到干扰。与美国的贸易关系稳定，可能因特朗普总统访问北京而得到进一步加强，这也增强了前景。</p>
<p>相比之下，劳动力市场的长期疲软一直是北京在面对持续的房地产危机时恢复家庭信心的主要障碍。中东冲突也在挤压企业利润，因为公司在将更高成本转嫁给客户时面临困难，增加了招聘的不确定性。</p>
<p>中国政策制定者似乎对这一双速增长现象采取了观望态度，此前几年推动消费的措施仅带来了微薄的收益。政府在三月份减少了财政支出，而中央银行在市场流动性充足和信贷需求疲软的情况下，避免暗示进一步放松政策。</p>
<p>“中国四月份的活动数据将继续聚焦于中国经济中的明显失衡——供给侧强劲，需求侧疲软，” 彭博经济学分析师常舒和 David Qu 表示。“工业生产仍然受到强劲出口的支撑。另一方面，由于消费者谨慎，消费仍然疲软，私人投资正在减弱，建筑活动开始出现下滑。”</p>
<p>以下是关于国家统计局将在周一上午 10 点在北京公布的数据的进一步背景：</p>
<h2>消费</h2>
<p>根据彭博社基于政府数据的计算，反映疲软情绪的中国游客在国内的平均每日消费在本月的劳动节假期期间降至 114.1 元（新加坡元 21.48），这是今年四个公共假期中最低的，且与去年同期的 114.8 元相比有所下降。</p>
<p>假期期间的低迷数据可能部分是由于一些消费者活动因政府指导而提前到四月份进行，以分散学校和工作的短假期。</p>
<p>“更高的能源价格可能推动了汽油销售价值的增长，而今年全国范围内的春季假期促销——在四月底——可能将一些外出就餐的需求从五月前置到四月，” 高盛集团的经济学家包括王立生在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>“这些因素应该已经超过了仍然低迷的汽车和家电销售增长，这反映了正在进行的消费品以旧换新的计划效果减弱。”</p>
<h2>制造业</h2>
<p>预计四月份工业产出增长 6% 将是自九月份以来的最大增幅。</p>
<p>上个月的出口数据超出预期，反弹至两位数增长，支撑了国家的制造业。经济学家估计，半导体、计算机和其他与人工智能相关商品的销售占四月份海外出货增长的约一半。</p>
<p>持续的人工智能繁荣可能使北京不必转向刺激措施来提升国内需求，麦格理集团的经济学家包括 Larry Hu 在周三的报告中写道。</p>
<p>“主要风险是伊朗危机最终会占据主导地位，导致中国的科技出口突然崩溃，” 他们表示。“在这种情况下，北京将迅速转向刺激国内需求。”</p>
<h2>投资</h2>
<p>预计固定资产投资在前四个月同比增长 1.7%。这将与三月份的增速相同。</p>
<p>根据之前发布的数据，建筑活动的指标在上个月达到了自 2020 年 2 月以来的最低水平——这表明基础设施和房地产开发可能放缓。</p>
<p>可能抑制投资的因素之一是资金的可用性。摩根士丹利的经济学家认为前景不容乐观，取消了对下半年 “财政补充” 和更多货币宽松的预期。</p>
<p>“强劲的出口减少了刺激的紧迫性，” 这家美国银行的经济学家 Robin Xing 在本周早些时候的中期展望中写道。“中东冲突可能会加强对能源安全和技术自给自足的供给侧优先事项，消费的再平衡将逐步进行。” BLOOMBERG</p>

上证指数

深证成指

沪深300

<p>中国四月份的经济数据表明经济呈现 K 型复苏，工业生产预计增长 6%，而零售销售仅增长 1.9%。尽管受益于人工智能和可再生能源需求的强劲出口，国内消费仍然疲软，原因在于就业市场疲弱和消费者谨慎。政策制定者在持续的经济失衡中采取观望态度，同时伊朗危机可能对科技出口带来潜在风险</p>

<p>[BEIJING] Chinese consumption probably expanded far slower than the pace of industry in April, as trade remained a notable bright spot despite the global reverberations from the Iran war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[北京] 由于贸易仍然是一个显著的亮点，尽管伊朗战争对全球产生了影响，中国的消费在四月份可能扩张的速度远低于工业的增速。</p>
</div><p>Data due on Monday (May 18) will show retail sales rose 1.9 per cent last month from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would follow a 1.7 per cent rise in March, extending one of the worst starts to any year outside the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据彭博社调查的经济学家的中位数预测，周一（5 月 18 日）公布的数据将显示，零售销售在上个月同比增长 1.9%。这将继 3 月份的 1.7% 增长之后，延续了疫情之外任何一年最糟糕的开局之一。</p>
</div><p>Industrial production likely expanded 6 per cent, up from 5.7 per cent in the prior month. Previously reported data showed exports surged 14.1 per cent last month. Taken together, the monthly figures would show a similar pattern to China’s economy in the first quarter, when it had a surprise acceleration in growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工业生产预计增长 6%，高于前一个月的 5.7%。之前公布的数据表明，上个月出口激增 14.1%。综合来看，这些月度数据将显示出与中国经济在第一季度的类似模式，当时经济增长意外加速。</p>
</div><p>“We expect the K-shaped divergence to extend into April,” Citigroup economists led by Xiangrong Yu wrote in a note previewing the data. “Industrial production remains buoyant” but that’s “contrasting with sluggish domestic demand,” they said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们预计 K 型分化将在四月份继续，” 花旗集团经济学家余向荣在一份预览数据的报告中写道。“工业生产仍然保持活力”，但这与 “疲软的国内需求形成对比，” 他们表示。</p>
</div><p>While the “K-shaped” discussion in the US centres on lower-income households getting left behind, in China the issue relates to domestic consumers as a whole. Similar discrepancies have emerged across Asia, in countries such as South Korea – especially as the spoils of a global boom in artificial intelligence bypass large parts of the workforce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然美国的 “K 型” 讨论主要集中在低收入家庭被抛在后面，但在中国，这个问题与整体国内消费者有关。类似的差异在亚洲各国中也出现，例如韩国——尤其是全球人工智能繁荣的收益未能惠及大部分劳动力。</p>
</div><p>China’s exports are expected to remain strong, supported by the global AI investment cycle and robust demand for renewable-energy products amid disruptions to the oil and gas industries because of the war in Iran. Stabilising trade ties with the US, likely reinforced by President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, further bolster the outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计中国的出口将保持强劲，受到全球人工智能投资周期和可再生能源产品强劲需求的支持，因为伊朗战争导致石油和天然气行业受到干扰。与美国的贸易关系稳定，可能因特朗普总统访问北京而得到进一步加强，这也增强了前景。</p>
</div><p>In contrast, chronic weakness in the jobs market has been a major obstacle for Beijing’s efforts to revive confidence among households in the face of a prolonged property crisis. The Middle East conflict is also squeezing corporate profits as firms struggle to pass on higher costs to customers, adding to uncertainty around hiring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，劳动力市场的长期疲软一直是北京在面对持续的房地产危机时恢复家庭信心的主要障碍。中东冲突也在挤压企业利润，因为公司在将更高成本转嫁给客户时面临困难，增加了招聘的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Chinese policymakers have appeared to be taking a wait-and-see approach to the two-speed growth phenomenon, after years of consumer‑boosting measures delivered only marginal gains. The government pulled back on fiscal spending in March, while the central bank has steered clear of hinting at any further loosening in policy, amid ample market liquidity and weak demand for credit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国政策制定者似乎对这一双速增长现象采取了观望态度，此前几年推动消费的措施仅带来了微薄的收益。政府在三月份减少了财政支出，而中央银行在市场流动性充足和信贷需求疲软的情况下，避免暗示进一步放松政策。</p>
</div><p>“China’s April activity data will keep the spotlight on stark imbalances in China’s economy – strength on the supply side, weakness on the demand side,” Bloomberg Economics analysts Chang Shu and David Qu said. “Industrial production remains underpinned by resilient exports. On the other hand, consumption remains sluggish due to consumer caution, private investment is softening and construction activity is starting to stumble.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“中国四月份的活动数据将继续聚焦于中国经济中的明显失衡——供给侧强劲，需求侧疲软，” 彭博经济学分析师常舒和 David Qu 表示。“工业生产仍然受到强劲出口的支撑。另一方面，由于消费者谨慎，消费仍然疲软，私人投资正在减弱，建筑活动开始出现下滑。”</p>
</div><p>Here’s further context for the National Bureau of Statistics data due at 10 am in Beijing on Monday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是关于国家统计局将在周一上午 10 点在北京公布的数据的进一步背景：</p>
</div><h2>Consumption</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>消费</h2>
</div><p>Reflecting sluggish sentiment, average daily spending by Chinese tourists within the country fell to 114.1 yuan (S$21.48) per trip during the Labor Day holiday earlier this month, according to Bloomberg calculations based on government data. That’s the least among the four public breaks so far this year, and compares with 114.8 yuan a year earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据彭博社基于政府数据的计算，反映疲软情绪的中国游客在国内的平均每日消费在本月的劳动节假期期间降至 114.1 元（新加坡元 21.48），这是今年四个公共假期中最低的，且与去年同期的 114.8 元相比有所下降。</p>
</div><p>The muted figures during the holiday could have been partly led by some consumer activities being moved forward to April due to government guidance to spread out short breaks from school and work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假期期间的低迷数据可能部分是由于一些消费者活动因政府指导而提前到四月份进行，以分散学校和工作的短假期。</p>
</div><p>“Higher energy prices may have boosted petrol sales value growth, and the nationwide promotion of spring breaks this year – in late April – may have frontloaded some dining-out demand to April from May,” Goldman Sachs Group economists including Lisheng Wang said in a report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“更高的能源价格可能推动了汽油销售价值的增长，而今年全国范围内的春季假期促销——在四月底——可能将一些外出就餐的需求从五月前置到四月，” 高盛集团的经济学家包括王立生在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>“These factors should have more than offset still-subdued automobile and home appliance sales growth, which reflects weakening effectiveness of the ongoing consumer goods trade-in programme.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这些因素应该已经超过了仍然低迷的汽车和家电销售增长，这反映了正在进行的消费品以旧换新的计划效果减弱。”</p>
</div><h2>Manufacturing sector</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>制造业</h2>
</div><p>The 6 per cent increase in industrial output expected for April would mark the biggest gain since September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计四月份工业产出增长 6% 将是自九月份以来的最大增幅。</p>
</div><p>Export figures for last month beat expectations, rebounding to double-digit growth and underpinning the nation’s manufacturing sector. Sales of semiconductors, computers and other AI-related goods accounted for about half of April’s growth in overseas shipments, economists estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月的出口数据超出预期，反弹至两位数增长，支撑了国家的制造业。经济学家估计，半导体、计算机和其他与人工智能相关商品的销售占四月份海外出货增长的约一半。</p>
</div><p>A sustained AI boom will likely spare Beijing from having to turn to stimulus to lift domestic demand, Macquarie Group economists including Larry Hu wrote in a Wednesday report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续的人工智能繁荣可能使北京不必转向刺激措施来提升国内需求，麦格理集团的经济学家包括 Larry Hu 在周三的报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>“The main risk is that the Iran crisis eventually takes over, causing a sudden collapse in China’s tech exports,” they said. “In that scenario, Beijing would quickly pivot to stimulating domestic demand.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“主要风险是伊朗危机最终会占据主导地位，导致中国的科技出口突然崩溃，” 他们表示。“在这种情况下，北京将迅速转向刺激国内需求。”</p>
</div><h2>Investment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资</h2>
</div><p>Fixed-asset investment is forecast to increase 1.7 per cent for the first four months compared with the same period a year before. That would be the same pace as recorded for March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计固定资产投资在前四个月同比增长 1.7%。这将与三月份的增速相同。</p>
</div><p>A gauge of construction activity hit its weakest reading since February 2020 last month, previously released data showed – suggesting a likely slowdown in infrastructure and property development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据之前发布的数据，建筑活动的指标在上个月达到了自 2020 年 2 月以来的最低水平——这表明基础设施和房地产开发可能放缓。</p>
</div><p>Among the factors likely holding investment back has been the availability of funding. Morgan Stanley economists see little relief ahead, removing their calls for “fiscal top-ups” and more monetary easing in the second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能抑制投资的因素之一是资金的可用性。摩根士丹利的经济学家认为前景不容乐观，取消了对下半年 “财政补充” 和更多货币宽松的预期。</p>
</div><p>“Strong exports reduce the urgency for stimulus,” the US bank’s economists led by Robin Xing wrote in a mid-year outlook earlier this week. “The Middle East conflict may reinforce supply-side priorities on energy security and tech self-sufficiency, with rebalancing of consumption proceeding gradually.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“强劲的出口减少了刺激的紧迫性，” 这家美国银行的经济学家 Robin Xing 在本周早些时候的中期展望中写道。“中东冲突可能会加强对能源安全和技术自给自足的供给侧优先事项，消费的再平衡将逐步进行。” BLOOMBERG</p>
</div>

China’s K-shaped economic divide is extending to another quarter

- 四月中国零售销售预计同比增长 1.9%，工业生产增速达 6%。  
- 出口强劲支持制造业，但国内需求疲软制约消费。  
- 政策制定者对经济失衡现状持观望态度，刺激措施效果有限。

中国的 K 型经济分化趋势正在延续至下一个季度