<ul>
<li>全球债券收益率因伊朗战争引发的能源冲击而飙升，通胀担忧加剧</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>预计各国央行将加息，今年几乎没有降息的可能</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>分析师警告在通胀波动中可能出现更高的赤字和燃料补贴</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：阿曼达·库珀</p>
<p>伦敦，5 月 15 日（路透社）- 全球债券市场在经历了一周的剧烈波动后，于周五勉强收尾，随着伊朗战争造成的经济损害证据不断增加，投资者开始假设利率将比预期更快上升，经济增长将受到影响。由于交易员预计美联储可能需要加息以遏制因伊朗战争引发的能源冲击带来的通胀压力，美国国债收益率达到了近一年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>英国国债收益率再次飙升，达到数十年来的最高水平，随着对首相基尔·斯塔默因其工党在地方选举中遭受重大损失而辞职的压力加大，挑战者也开始出现。欧元区的收益率普遍上升，而日本的债券收益率创下历史新高。</p>
<p>意大利 10 年期债券表现最差，收益率上升 11 个基点至约 3.89%，本周累计上升 16 个基点，而基准德国国债收益率几乎上升 7 个基点，达到约 3.12%，本周上涨 11 个基点。</p>
<p>本周的通胀数据显示，消费者和企业开始感受到由于战争导致的价格压力大幅增加，原油价格上涨超过 50%。</p>
<p>“我们看到全球债券风险溢价的重置，因为市场意识到我们生活在一个更加动荡的通胀气候中，” GlobalData TS Lombard 的高级宏观策略师丹尼尔·冯·阿伦表示。</p>
<p>两年期收益率对通胀和利率预期变化最为敏感，本周上涨幅度最大，但长期债券的收益率也开始上升，反映出投资者对价格冲击的长期影响的担忧。</p>
<p>“全球收益率可能已经达到足以伤害市场情绪的水平。在一个由人工智能建设推动的强劲全球经济和高企的能源价格之间，各国央行可能更担心通胀，” DBS 的高级利率策略师尤金·刘表示。</p>
<p>货币市场显示，交易员认为美联储今年加息的可能性为 60%。在战争之前，至少已经定价了两次降息。</p>
<p>利率市场还显示，全球 24 家最具影响力的央行中，只有四家有任何实质性降息的可能性，绝大多数倾向于加息，根据 LSEG 的数据。</p>
<p>“关注的焦点不仅是通胀，还有更高的赤字，” 杰富瑞的策略师莫希特·库马尔表示。</p>
<p>“我们可能会在未来几个月看到一系列支持燃料补贴的措施被宣布。”</p>
<p>库马尔表示，他预计政府债券收益率曲线将出现陡峭化的趋势，指的是长期债券收益率上升速度快于短期债券收益率的市场动态。</p>
<p>本周 G7 国家的 10 年期收益率平均上升了 17 个基点，而两年期 G7 债务收益率的平均上升为 12 个基点。基准 10 年期美国国债 US10YT=RR 的收益率最后为 4.54%，当天上涨 8 个基点，接近去年 6 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>基准 10 年期英国国债本周上涨超过 20 个基点，周五再上涨 15 个基点，达到 5.14%；而 10 年期日本债券收益率上涨 7 个基点，收于 2.7%。</p>
<p>（新加坡的瑞·韦和班加罗尔的特韦莎·迪克希特补充报道；安德鲁·海文斯、基尔斯滕·多诺万编辑）</p>

美国短期公司债 - Vanguard

美国长期公司债 - Vanguard

美国中期公司债 - Vanguard

<p>全球债券收益率因伊朗战争的经济影响而激增，通胀担忧加剧，促使市场预期中央银行将加快加息步伐。美国国债收益率达到了一年以来的最高点，而英国国债收益率则创下数十年来的高位。分析师警告称，在通胀波动加剧的背景下，赤字可能会增加，并可能出现燃料补贴，预计政府债券收益率曲线将出现陡峭化的趋势。市场预计美联储今年加息的概率为 60%，与之前的降息预期形成对比</p>

<p>* Bond yields surge globally as inflation fears rise after Iran war energy shocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>全球债券收益率因伊朗战争引发的能源冲击而飙升，通胀担忧加剧</li>
</ul>
</div><p>* Central banks expected to hike rates, with few cuts seen likely this year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>预计各国央行将加息，今年几乎没有降息的可能</li>
</ul>
</div><p>* Analysts warn of higher deficits and possible fuel subsidies amid volatile inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>分析师警告在通胀波动中可能出现更高的赤字和燃料补贴</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Amanda Cooper</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：阿曼达·库珀</p>
</div><p>LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - The global bond market limped to the end of a bruising week on Friday, as growing evidence of economic damage from the Iran war prompted investors to assume interest rates will rise faster than expected and growth will suffer. U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest in around a year as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates to rein in inflationary pressures stemming from Iran war-fuelled energy shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，5 月 15 日（路透社）- 全球债券市场在经历了一周的剧烈波动后，于周五勉强收尾，随着伊朗战争造成的经济损害证据不断增加，投资者开始假设利率将比预期更快上升，经济增长将受到影响。由于交易员预计美联储可能需要加息以遏制因伊朗战争引发的能源冲击带来的通胀压力，美国国债收益率达到了近一年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>UK gilt yields surged again, hitting their highest in decades, as pressure mounts on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign over his Labour Party's hefty losses in local elections, and as challengers emerge. Yields across the euro zone jumped, while Japanese bond yields hit record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国国债收益率再次飙升，达到数十年来的最高水平，随着对首相基尔·斯塔默因其工党在地方选举中遭受重大损失而辞职的压力加大，挑战者也开始出现。欧元区的收益率普遍上升，而日本的债券收益率创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>Italian 10-year bonds were among the worst performers, with yields up 11 basis points to around 3.89%, bringing the rise for the week to 16 bps, while benchmark German Bund yields rose almost 7 bps to around 3.12%, up 11 bps this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>意大利 10 年期债券表现最差，收益率上升 11 个基点至约 3.89%，本周累计上升 16 个基点，而基准德国国债收益率几乎上升 7 个基点，达到约 3.12%，本周上涨 11 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Inflation data this week has shown consumers and businesses are starting to see big increases in price pressures as a result of the war, which has pushed up the price of crude oil by more than 50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周的通胀数据显示，消费者和企业开始感受到由于战争导致的价格压力大幅增加，原油价格上涨超过 50%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We see a reset of this global bond risk premium because the market is just realising we're living in a much more volatile inflation climate,&#34; Daniel von Ahlen, senior macro strategist at GlobalData TS Lombard, said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们看到全球债券风险溢价的重置，因为市场意识到我们生活在一个更加动荡的通胀气候中，” GlobalData TS Lombard 的高级宏观策略师丹尼尔·冯·阿伦表示。</p>
</div><p>Two-year yields, which are the most sensitive to changes in expectations for inflation and interest rates, have risen most sharply this week, but yields on longer-dated bonds have started to increase as well, reflecting investors' concern about the longer-running impact from a price shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两年期收益率对通胀和利率预期变化最为敏感，本周上涨幅度最大，但长期债券的收益率也开始上升，反映出投资者对价格冲击的长期影响的担忧。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Global yields have probably come to the point where they are high enough to hurt sentiment. Between a resilient global economy powered by AI build-out and elevated energy prices, central banks are probably more worried about inflation,&#34; DBS senior rates strategist Eugene Leow said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“全球收益率可能已经达到足以伤害市场情绪的水平。在一个由人工智能建设推动的强劲全球经济和高企的能源价格之间，各国央行可能更担心通胀，” DBS 的高级利率策略师尤金·刘表示。</p>
</div><p>Money markets show traders see a 60% chance of the Fed delivering a rate hike this year. Before the war, at least two cuts had been priced in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币市场显示，交易员认为美联储今年加息的可能性为 60%。在战争之前，至少已经定价了两次降息。</p>
</div><p>The rates market also shows that just four out of 24 of the world's most influential central banks have any meaningful chance of delivering a rate cut this year, with the vast majority tilted in favour of hikes, according to LSEG data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率市场还显示，全球 24 家最具影响力的央行中，只有四家有任何实质性降息的可能性，绝大多数倾向于加息，根据 LSEG 的数据。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's not just inflation, but also higher deficits that should be the focus,&#34; Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“关注的焦点不仅是通胀，还有更高的赤字，” 杰富瑞的策略师莫希特·库马尔表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We are likely to see a number of support measures for fuel subsidies announced in the coming months.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们可能会在未来几个月看到一系列支持燃料补贴的措施被宣布。”</p>
</div><p>Kumar said he anticipated a steepening bias in government bond curves, referring to a market dynamic in which longer-dated bond yields rise more quickly than those of shorter maturities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>库马尔表示，他预计政府债券收益率曲线将出现陡峭化的趋势，指的是长期债券收益率上升速度快于短期债券收益率的市场动态。</p>
</div><p>Ten-year yields across the G7 nations have risen by an average of 17 bps this week, compared with an average rise of 12 bps for two-year G7 debt yields. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR were last yielding 4.54%, up 8 bps on the day and around their highest since last June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周 G7 国家的 10 年期收益率平均上升了 17 个基点，而两年期 G7 债务收益率的平均上升为 12 个基点。基准 10 年期美国国债 US10YT=RR 的收益率最后为 4.54%，当天上涨 8 个基点，接近去年 6 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Benchmark 10-year gilts, which have risen by over 20 bps this week, were up another 15 bps at 5.14% on Friday, while 10-year Japanese yields closed up 7 bps at 2.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基准 10 年期英国国债本周上涨超过 20 个基点，周五再上涨 15 个基点，达到 5.14%；而 10 年期日本债券收益率上涨 7 个基点，收于 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>(Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore and Twesha Dikshit in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrew Heavens, Kirsten Donovan)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（新加坡的瑞·韦和班加罗尔的特韦莎·迪克希特补充报道；安德鲁·海文斯、基尔斯滕·多诺万编辑）</p>
</div>

全球债券市场受到重创，因通胀加剧令投资者感到恐慌