<p>在本周最后一个交易日，市场情绪明显转向防御性。油价飙升，股票承压，贵金属大幅下跌，全球债券抛售持续加剧。原油领涨，7 月合约上涨 2.93 美元，报 99.85 美元，而即将到期的 6 月合约交易于 103.99 美元，上涨 2.82 美元，临近下周到期。同时，黄金大幅下跌 94 美元，跌幅为-2.05%，报 4,554 美元，而白银暴跌 4.84 美元，跌幅为-5.88%，凸显出市场普遍的清算情绪。</p>
<p>与此同时，国债收益率在整个曲线中迅速上升，市场继续重新定价通胀和增长风险。预计美联储今年加息的概率为 60%。10 年期国债收益率上涨近 8.5 个基点，达到 4.547%，为去年 5 月以来的最高水平，而 2 年期收益率上升 6.6 个基点，回升至 4.052%，在 4% 这一关键阈值上方坚挺，此前在 4 月份曾低至 3.70%。债市越来越多地发出信号，表明通胀压力可能会持续，尤其是在能源价格再次飙升的情况下。收益率的最新突破对于股市来说变得过于显著，无法忽视，尽管股票在利率上升的情况下仍表现出韧性。</p>
<p>美国股指期货随之反应，标普 500 期货暗示下跌 72 点（现在为-92 点），纳斯达克期货下跌 394 点（现在为-500 点），道琼斯期货在盘前交易中下跌 316 点。更强的收益率背景和上升的风险厌恶情绪也推动了美元的再次上涨。EURUSD 跌至 1.1618 的会话低点，而 GBPUSD 滑落至 1.3329。英镑面临来自英国政治不确定性加剧的额外阻力，基尔·斯塔默首相的未来问题与国债收益率的急剧上升相吻合，给英镑带来了双重打击。</p>
<p>在上面的视频中，我对三大主要货币对——EURUSD、USDJPY 和 GBPUSD 进行了技术分析，并概述了推动交易的关键技术水平。本周，EURUSD 下跌-1.28%，GBPUSD 下跌-1.93%，而 USDJPY 上涨 1.21%。在经典的 “风险规避” 环境中，美元对所有主要货币走强，与商品相关的澳元和新西兰元受到的打击最为严重。在早间快照中，相对于美元的百分比变化为：EUR -0.33%，JPY -0.14%，GBP -0.31%，CHF -0.31%，CAD -0.24%，AUD -0.97%，NZD -1.15%。</p>
<p>焦点将重新回到伊朗，解决方案仍然不明确，似乎也不太接近。</p>

GOLD

中金黄金

<p>美元上涨，收益率飙升，股票大幅下跌。油价上涨，原油接近 100 美元，而黄金和白银价格下跌。国债收益率上升，表明通胀担忧，今年美联储加息的可能性为 60%。美国股指期货显示主要指数将大幅下跌。美元对主要货币走强，欧元兑美元和英镑兑美元均下跌。英国的政治不确定性给英镑带来压力</p>

<p>The broader market mood is turning decidedly more defensive heading into the final trading day of the week. Oil prices are surging higher, equities are under pressure, precious metals are tumbling, and the global bond selloff continues to intensify. Crude oil is leading the move, with the July contract up $2.93 at $99.85, while the expiring June contract is trading at $103.99, up $2.82 ahead of its expiration next week. Meanwhile, gold is down sharply by $94 or -2.05% at $4,554, while silver has plunged $4.84 or -5.88%, underscoring the broader liquidation tone across markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本周最后一个交易日，市场情绪明显转向防御性。油价飙升，股票承压，贵金属大幅下跌，全球债券抛售持续加剧。原油领涨，7 月合约上涨 2.93 美元，报 99.85 美元，而即将到期的 6 月合约交易于 103.99 美元，上涨 2.82 美元，临近下周到期。同时，黄金大幅下跌 94 美元，跌幅为-2.05%，报 4,554 美元，而白银暴跌 4.84 美元，跌幅为-5.88%，凸显出市场普遍的清算情绪。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Treasury yields are racing higher across the curve as markets continue to reprice inflation and growth risks. The expectation is for a 60% chance for a Fed rate hike this year. The 10-year yield is up nearly 8.5 basis points at 4.547% — the highest level since May of last year — while the 2-year yield has climbed 6.6 basis points to 4.052%, firmly back above the key 4% threshold after trading as low as 3.70% in April. The bond market is increasingly signaling concern that inflation pressures may remain sticky, especially with energy prices surging higher again. The latest breakout in yields is now becoming too significant for equity markets to ignore after weeks of resilience in stocks despite rising rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，国债收益率在整个曲线中迅速上升，市场继续重新定价通胀和增长风险。预计美联储今年加息的概率为 60%。10 年期国债收益率上涨近 8.5 个基点，达到 4.547%，为去年 5 月以来的最高水平，而 2 年期收益率上升 6.6 个基点，回升至 4.052%，在 4% 这一关键阈值上方坚挺，此前在 4 月份曾低至 3.70%。债市越来越多地发出信号，表明通胀压力可能会持续，尤其是在能源价格再次飙升的情况下。收益率的最新突破对于股市来说变得过于显著，无法忽视，尽管股票在利率上升的情况下仍表现出韧性。</p>
</div><p>US stock futures are reacting accordingly, with S&amp;P 500 futures implying a decline of 72 points (now -92 points), Nasdaq futures down 394 points (whoops now -500 point), and Dow futures lower by 316 points in premarket trading. The stronger yield backdrop and rising risk aversion are also fueling another leg higher in the US dollar. EURUSD has fallen to a session low of 1.1618, while GBPUSD has slid to 1.3329. Sterling is facing an added headwind from mounting political uncertainty in the UK, as questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s future coincide with sharply higher gilt yields, delivering a double blow to the pound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股指期货随之反应，标普 500 期货暗示下跌 72 点（现在为-92 点），纳斯达克期货下跌 394 点（现在为-500 点），道琼斯期货在盘前交易中下跌 316 点。更强的收益率背景和上升的风险厌恶情绪也推动了美元的再次上涨。EURUSD 跌至 1.1618 的会话低点，而 GBPUSD 滑落至 1.3329。英镑面临来自英国政治不确定性加剧的额外阻力，基尔·斯塔默首相的未来问题与国债收益率的急剧上升相吻合，给英镑带来了双重打击。</p>
</div><p>In the video above, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — and outline the key technical levels driving the trade. For the week, EURUSD is down -1.28%, GBPUSD has fallen -1.93%, while USDJPY is up 1.21%. The dollar is stronger against all the major currencies in a classic “risk-off” flow environment, with the commodity-linked AUD and NZD getting hit the hardest. In the morning snapshot, the percentage changes versus the dollar are: EUR -0.33%, JPY -0.14%, GBP -0.31%, CHF -0.31%, CAD -0.24%, AUD -0.97%, and NZD -1.15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上面的视频中，我对三大主要货币对——EURUSD、USDJPY 和 GBPUSD 进行了技术分析，并概述了推动交易的关键技术水平。本周，EURUSD 下跌-1.28%，GBPUSD 下跌-1.93%，而 USDJPY 上涨 1.21%。在经典的 “风险规避” 环境中，美元对所有主要货币走强，与商品相关的澳元和新西兰元受到的打击最为严重。在早间快照中，相对于美元的百分比变化为：EUR -0.33%，JPY -0.14%，GBP -0.31%，CHF -0.31%，CAD -0.24%，AUD -0.97%，NZD -1.15%。</p>
</div><p>Focus will return back to Iran where solutions are still unclear and seemingly not too near.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>焦点将重新回到伊朗，解决方案仍然不明确，似乎也不太接近。</p>
</div>

市场快速反转。美元上涨，收益率飙升，股票大幅下跌