<p>昨天多个市场大幅下跌，今天早些时候的欧洲交易时段也出现了一些明显的下行趋势。即便是强劲的纳斯达克 100 期货也遭受了打击，在相对狭窄的科技主导反弹推动基准指数创下新高后，银价承受了最大的抛售压力，继昨天下跌 3% 后又下跌了 7%。黄金下滑了 2%，美元对所有主要货币上涨。随着全球收益率持续飙升，英国 30 年期国债收益率跃升至 5.82%，达到自 1998 年以来的最高水平。但到午餐时间，由于获利了结，一些走势有所回落，伊朗外长阿拉基表示他们收到了来自美国的消息，称希望继续进行谈判。尽管如此，只要霍尔木兹海峡的持续局势未得到解决，这将继续支撑油价，并削弱 EUR/USD 的预测，尤其是在全球债券收益率大幅上涨的背景下。</p>
<h2>造成美元强势的原因是什么？</h2>
<p>市场似乎对地缘政治乐观情绪的减退和美联储政策重新定价的组合做出了反应。人们对特朗普与习近平的会晤寄予了很大希望，期待至少能带来一些建设性的头条新闻——不仅仅是在贸易方面，可能在伊朗问题上也是如此。然而，缺乏实质性进展使得风险情绪受到影响。美国股指期货与欧洲股票一起下滑，而油价则恢复了上涨，这使得美元在风险规避的背景下再次走高，同时交易员们在本周一系列鹰派的美国数据发布后继续降低对美联储放松政策的预期。</p>
<p>与此同时，债券收益率持续上升，为全球市场增添了另一层波动性。投资者对发达经济体的政府借贷规模感到越来越不安，以及持续高企的收益率可能对增长前景、债务服务成本和更广泛的金融状况意味着什么。主权收益率的急剧上升不再被视为暂时的调整——它正日益成为一种宏观逆风。</p>
<p>通胀担忧依然是焦点。在周二美国 CPI 数据超出预期后，市场受到震动，周三生产者价格又带来了另一个上行惊喜。四月份的 PPI 录得自 2022 年 3 月以来的最大月度增幅，远高于市场预期，强化了基础价格压力远比政策制定者和市场所希望的要顽固的观点。此外，美国进口价格也大幅上涨，引发了企业要么通过降低利润率来吸收更高成本，要么将其转嫁给消费者的担忧，从而使通胀压力在经济周期中持续存在。</p>
<p>能源价格仍然是通胀故事的关键部分。高企的原油价格已经对广泛的市场情绪造成了影响，尽管半导体公司和持续的人工智能热情在此之前帮助美国科技指数抵御了更广泛的宏观压力。然而，这种韧性今天似乎终于出现了裂痕，随着收益率上升、油价坚挺以及持续的通胀担忧，甚至开始挑战市场上最强劲的动量交易。</p>
<h2>EUR/USD 预测受到关键支撑位破裂的影响</h2>
<p>尽管油价高企，仍然保持在 100 美元以上，欧元在 1.1700 水平附近吸引了买盘几天。但昨天该水平被突破，我们收盘于 20 日均线以下。这反过来为今天早些时候进一步的技术性抛售铺平了道路。</p>
<p>考虑到全球风险情绪的整体恶化和油价的新一轮上涨，EUR/USD 现在可能会保持在 1.1700 以下。同时，如果推动股市的人工智能热情也可能减退，尤其是考虑到下周 Nvidia 的财报将是一个重大事件。因此，EUR/USD 预测的下行风险正在增加，正如我们在本周所警告的那样。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.15%20eurusd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.15%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>EUR/USD 图表上的下一个支撑位在 1.1575-1.1605 区域，如果风险急剧恶化，则可能会跌至 1.1500。</p>
<h2>市场接下来会关注什么？</h2>
<p>如前所述，市场对围绕伊朗和人工智能相关主题的发展高度敏感，特别是考虑到这些因素对股票和更广泛风险偏好的影响。随着海湾局势进展有限，全球收益率上升，美元可以继续在此基础上走高。除非市场很快获得有意义的积极催化剂，否则风险继续偏向美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

德银美元指数 做空 - PowerShares

2 倍做空欧元 ETF - ProShares

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>EUR/USD 的预测面临压力，因为全球风险情绪恶化，欧元跌破关键支撑位 1.1700。美国国债收益率上升和通胀担忧，加上高企的油价，正在推动美元走强。市场对地缘政治紧张局势和对美联储政策路径的重新评估作出反应，导致波动性增加。EUR/USD 的下一个支撑位预计在 1.1575-1.1605 附近，如果风险情绪进一步恶化，可能会出现更大幅度的下跌</p>

<p>Yesterday saw a number of markets drop sharply and we have seen some good downside follow-through so far into today’s early European session. Even the mighty Nasdaq 100 futures took a hit, after a relatively narrow tech-led rally pushed the benchmark to fresh record highs. Silver took the brunt of the sell-off, down another 7% after yesterday’s 3% drop. Gold slipped 2% and the dollar was up against all major currencies. As global yields continued to surge, the UK’s 30-year yield jumped to 5.82% to reach its highest level since 1998. But by lunchtime, some of those moves unwound a little amid profit-taking and as Iran's foreign minister Araqchi said they had received messages from the US saying they are seeking continued talks. Still, for as long as ongoing situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, this should keep the price of oil support and the EUR/USD forecast undermined, especially in light of the big surge in global bond yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天多个市场大幅下跌，今天早些时候的欧洲交易时段也出现了一些明显的下行趋势。即便是强劲的纳斯达克 100 期货也遭受了打击，在相对狭窄的科技主导反弹推动基准指数创下新高后，银价承受了最大的抛售压力，继昨天下跌 3% 后又下跌了 7%。黄金下滑了 2%，美元对所有主要货币上涨。随着全球收益率持续飙升，英国 30 年期国债收益率跃升至 5.82%，达到自 1998 年以来的最高水平。但到午餐时间，由于获利了结，一些走势有所回落，伊朗外长阿拉基表示他们收到了来自美国的消息，称希望继续进行谈判。尽管如此，只要霍尔木兹海峡的持续局势未得到解决，这将继续支撑油价，并削弱 EUR/USD 的预测，尤其是在全球债券收益率大幅上涨的背景下。</p>
</div><h2>What is causing all this dollar strength?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>造成美元强势的原因是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Markets look to be reacting to a combination of fading geopolitical optimism and a fresh repricing of the Fed path. A great deal of hope had been pinned on the Trump-Xi meeting delivering at least a handful of constructive headlines — not just on trade, but potentially on Iran too. Instead, the absence of meaningful progress has left risk sentiment exposed. US equity futures have slipped alongside European stocks, while oil prices have resumed their climb, handing the dollar another leg higher both from a risk-off point of view and also as traders continue to scale back expectations for Fed easing following this week’s run of hawkish US data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场似乎对地缘政治乐观情绪的减退和美联储政策重新定价的组合做出了反应。人们对特朗普与习近平的会晤寄予了很大希望，期待至少能带来一些建设性的头条新闻——不仅仅是在贸易方面，可能在伊朗问题上也是如此。然而，缺乏实质性进展使得风险情绪受到影响。美国股指期货与欧洲股票一起下滑，而油价则恢复了上涨，这使得美元在风险规避的背景下再次走高，同时交易员们在本周一系列鹰派的美国数据发布后继续降低对美联储放松政策的预期。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, bond yields continue to grind higher, adding another layer of volatility across global markets. Investors are becoming increasingly uneasy about the scale of government borrowing across developed economies and what persistently elevated yields could mean for growth prospects, debt servicing costs, and broader financial conditions. The sharp move higher in sovereign yields is no longer being treated as a temporary adjustment — it is increasingly becoming a macro headwind in its own right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，债券收益率持续上升，为全球市场增添了另一层波动性。投资者对发达经济体的政府借贷规模感到越来越不安，以及持续高企的收益率可能对增长前景、债务服务成本和更广泛的金融状况意味着什么。主权收益率的急剧上升不再被视为暂时的调整——它正日益成为一种宏观逆风。</p>
</div><p>Inflation concerns remain front and centre. After Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected US CPI print rattled markets, Wednesday brought another upside surprise through producer prices. April’s PPI posted its strongest monthly gain since March 2022 and came in well above consensus, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain far stickier than policymakers — and markets — had hoped. Adding to that, US import prices also surged, raising concerns that companies will either have to absorb higher costs through weaker margins or pass them on to consumers, keeping inflationary pressures alive deeper into the cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀担忧依然是焦点。在周二美国 CPI 数据超出预期后，市场受到震动，周三生产者价格又带来了另一个上行惊喜。四月份的 PPI 录得自 2022 年 3 月以来的最大月度增幅，远高于市场预期，强化了基础价格压力远比政策制定者和市场所希望的要顽固的观点。此外，美国进口价格也大幅上涨，引发了企业要么通过降低利润率来吸收更高成本，要么将其转嫁给消费者的担忧，从而使通胀压力在经济周期中持续存在。</p>
</div><p>Energy prices remain a key part of the inflation story. Elevated crude oil prices have already weighed on broad market sentiment for some time, although the resilience in semiconductor names and ongoing AI enthusiasm had until now helped shield US tech indices from the broader macro pressure. That resilience finally appears to be cracking today, with higher yields, firmer oil, and persistent inflation concerns beginning to challenge even the market’s strongest momentum trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源价格仍然是通胀故事的关键部分。高企的原油价格已经对广泛的市场情绪造成了影响，尽管半导体公司和持续的人工智能热情在此之前帮助美国科技指数抵御了更广泛的宏观压力。然而，这种韧性今天似乎终于出现了裂痕，随着收益率上升、油价坚挺以及持续的通胀担忧，甚至开始挑战市场上最强劲的动量交易。</p>
</div><h2>EUR/USD forecast hit as it breaks key support</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>EUR/USD 预测受到关键支撑位破裂的影响</h2>
</div><p>Despite elevated oil prices remaining well above the $100 mark, the euro was able to attract buyers around the 1.1700 level for several days. But yesterday that level gave way and we closed below the 20-day. That, in turn, paved the way for further technical selling that took place earlier today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管油价高企，仍然保持在 100 美元以上，欧元在 1.1700 水平附近吸引了买盘几天。但昨天该水平被突破，我们收盘于 20 日均线以下。这反过来为今天早些时候进一步的技术性抛售铺平了道路。</p>
</div><p>The EUR/USD could now hold below 1.1700 given the broader deterioration in global risk sentiment, and a fresh rally in oil prices. At the same time, if the AI-driven enthusiasm that has fuelled equity markets could also fade, especially with Nvidia’s earnings next week representing a major event. So, the downside risk to the EUR/USD forecast are increasing as we have been warning throughout the week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到全球风险情绪的整体恶化和油价的新一轮上涨，EUR/USD 现在可能会保持在 1.1700 以下。同时，如果推动股市的人工智能热情也可能减退，尤其是考虑到下周 Nvidia 的财报将是一个重大事件。因此，EUR/USD 预测的下行风险正在增加，正如我们在本周所警告的那样。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.15%20eurusd.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.15%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Next support on the EUR/USD chart is seen around the 1.1575-1.1605 area, followed by 1.1500 handle if risk deteriorates sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EUR/USD 图表上的下一个支撑位在 1.1575-1.1605 区域，如果风险急剧恶化，则可能会跌至 1.1500。</p>
</div><h2>What will markets be watching next?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场接下来会关注什么？</h2>
</div><p>As before, markets remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding Iran and AI-related themes, particularly given the knock-on impact through equities and broader risk appetite. With little progress emerging from the Gulf situation, and global yields risings, the US dollar can keep on pushing higher from here. Unless markets receive a meaningful positive catalyst soon, the risks continue to favour the greenback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，市场对围绕伊朗和人工智能相关主题的发展高度敏感，特别是考虑到这些因素对股票和更广泛风险偏好的影响。随着海湾局势进展有限，全球收益率上升，美元可以继续在此基础上走高。除非市场很快获得有意义的积极催化剂，否则风险继续偏向美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

欧元/美元预测：随着收益率和美元的持续上涨，市场风险偏好受到冲击——外汇周五