<p>国际货币基金组织（IMF）赞扬了香港经济的韧性，指出尽管经济活动尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，但经济仍在持续复苏，同时警告称，地缘政治紧张局势升级带来了下行风险。IMF 还敦促香港进行中期财政改革，包括引入商品和服务税，以稳定和增强公共收入。IMF 于三月访问香港后发布的总结声明于周五公布，预测该市的国内生产总值（GDP）增长将从 2025 年的 3.5% 放缓至今年的 2.4%。IMF 将预期的放缓归因于外部需求疲软和中东战争导致的金融环境收紧。中期来看，IMF 预计香港的 GDP 将以约 2.25% 的速度增长，通胀率将从 2025 年的 1.4% 逐渐上升至 2.5%。报告将香港去年强于预期的经济增长归因于强劲的技术出口、改善的私人需求和金融市场的反弹。报告强调，香港巩固了其作为全球金融中心和中国大陆与世界之间的 “超级连接者” 的地位。但 IMF 警告称，该市的经济复苏仍不完整，多个经济指标仍低于疫情前水平。报告指出：“经济闲置虽然逐渐缩小，但仍然存在。” 报告称：“私人投资尚未完全恢复，劳动力参与率处于历史低位，访客到达人数仍低于疫情前水平。” 报告还指出，尽管住宅物业价格趋于稳定，但商业房地产市场仍然冷淡，特别是零售和办公领域，仍面临需求结构变化和高空置率的逆风。报告预测，香港的经济增长将温和，前景偏向下行，原因包括地缘政治紧张局势升级、中东冲突加剧，以及持续的商品价格压力、更高的全球利率、贸易碎片化和金融市场波动加剧。报告指出：“鉴于香港高度开放和金融互联的特性，这些冲击将迅速传导。” 报告提到，较脆弱的行业包括中小企业和房地产行业。在公共财政方面，报告预测香港的赤字将在中期内逐步缩小，但其综合赤字将持续到 2031 年。报告称：“尽管 2026 年的财政立场似乎适当，但应重点实现更强的中期整合，包括优先考虑财政改革。” 报告强调，因人口老龄化、社会保障需求和大型基础设施项目而产生的结构性支出压力。“渐进式节省和选择性的 ‘用户付费’ 调整虽然有帮助，但将使财政状况暴露于该地区狭窄和周期性的收入基础之下，” 报告指出。“因此，未来需要更广泛的收入改革，以加强和稳定收入基础。” 在最新预算中，政府于去年二月公布，计划在未来两个财政年度内每年削减 2% 的经常性支出，同时坚持用户付费和 “可负担用户付费” 原则以增加收入。对此，财政司司长陈茂波表示，政府将分析该任务组的建议。陈表示：“我们注意到总结声明中关于香港商业房地产部门的观点，” 并强调政府已推出一系列市场稳定政策。“目前，香港的商业房地产市场已趋于稳定，交易和租赁量显著上升，价格和租金趋于平稳。” 陈还强调，政府的运营账户将在未来五年内记录不断增加的盈余，反映出收入增加和支出控制措施的有效性。他指出，综合赤字主要归因于对北部都会区大型项目的投资，该项目将在长期内产生更广泛的经济效益和额外的税收收入。“展望未来，香港的经济增长前景积极，受到全球对人工智能相关电子产品的强劲需求、访客到达人数的持续增长和强劲的跨境金融活动的支撑，” 陈表示。</p>

恒生指数

盈富基金

南方一倍看空恒指

南方两倍看多恒指

南方恒指ETF

安硕恒生指数

南方两倍看空恒指

<p>国际货币基金组织（IMF）赞扬了香港的经济韧性，但警告地缘政治紧张局势带来的风险，预测今年 GDP 增长将放缓至 2.4%。IMF 呼吁进行金融改革，包括征收商品和服务税，以稳定公共收入。报告强调了持续的经济疲软和商业房地产市场面临的挑战。财政司司长陈茂波指出，政府正在努力稳定市场，并预计未来五年运营账户的盈余将逐渐增加，强调全球对人工智能相关电子产品的需求将推动积极的增长前景</p>

<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lauded the resilience of Hong Kong’s economy, noting a sustained recovery despite economic activity having yet to return to pre-Covid levels, while warning of downside risks stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions. It also urged Hong Kong to pursue medium-term financial reforms, including the introduction of a goods and services tax, to stabilise and strengthen public revenue. A concluding statement by an IMF mission that visited Hong Kong in March, which was released on Friday, forecast that the city’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth would slow to 2.4 per cent this year, from 3.5 per cent in 2025. It attributed the anticipated slowdown to weaker external demand and tighter financial conditions amid the war in the Middle East. Over the medium term, the IMF expected Hong Kong’s GDP to grow at about 2.25 per cent, with inflation rising gradually from 1.4 per cent in 2025 to 2.5 per cent. The report attributed Hong Kong’s stronger-than-expected economic growth last year to robust technology exports, improving private demand and a rebound in financial markets. It highlighted that Hong Kong had cemented its position as a global financial centre and “superconnector” between mainland China and the world. But the IMF cautioned that the city’s economic recovery remained incomplete, with several economic indicators still below pre-Covid levels. “Economic slack, while gradually narrowing, remains,” the report read. “Private investment has yet to fully recover, the labour force participation rate is at historically low levels and visitor arrivals remain below pre-pandemic levels,” it said. The report also pointed to a lukewarm commercial real estate market despite stabilising residential property prices, particularly the retail and office segments, which continue to face headwinds from structural changes in demand and elevated vacancy rates. It forecast that Hong Kong’s economic growth would be moderate, with the outlook tilted to the downside, citing escalating geopolitical tensions and intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, along with persistent commodity price pressures, higher global interest rates, trade fragmentation and heightened financial market volatility. “Given Hong Kong’s high degree of openness and financial interconnectedness, such shocks would transmit rapidly,” the report stated, noting that the more vulnerable sectors included small and medium-sized enterprises and the real estate industry. On public finances, the report projected Hong Kong’s deficits would narrow progressively over the medium term, but its consolidated deficits would persist until 2031. “While the fiscal stance in 2026 appears appropriate, efforts should focus on achieving stronger medium-term consolidation, including prioritising fiscal reforms,” the report read. It highlighted structural spending pressures arising from an ageing population, social protection needs and large infrastructure projects. “Incremental savings and selective ‘user-pay’ adjustments, while helpful, would leave the fiscal position exposed to the territory’s narrow and cyclical revenue base,” the report stated. “Broader revenue reforms will therefore be needed over time to strengthen and stabilise the revenue base.” In the latest budget, unveiled last February, the government cut recurrent expenditure by 2 per cent annually for the next two financial years, while upholding the user pays and “affordable users pay” principles to raise revenue. In response to the IMF’s concluding statement, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said the government would analyse the mission’s recommendations. “We note the views in the concluding statement on Hong Kong’s commercial real estate sector,” Chan said, stressing that the government had introduced a series of market-stabilising policy measures. “Currently, Hong Kong’s commercial real estate market has stabilised, with transaction and leasing volumes rising significantly, and prices and rents becoming steady.” Chan also emphasised that the government’s operating account would record increasing surpluses over the next five years, reflecting the effectiveness of revenue-raising and expenditure-control measures. He noted that the consolidated deficit was largely attributable to investment in the Northern Metropolis megaproject, which would generate broader economic benefits and additional tax revenue in the long run. “Looking ahead, Hong Kong’s economic growth outlook is positive, underpinned by strong global demand for AI-related electronics, sustained growth in visitor arrivals and robust cross-boundary financial activities,” Chan said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际货币基金组织（IMF）赞扬了香港经济的韧性，指出尽管经济活动尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，但经济仍在持续复苏，同时警告称，地缘政治紧张局势升级带来了下行风险。IMF 还敦促香港进行中期财政改革，包括引入商品和服务税，以稳定和增强公共收入。IMF 于三月访问香港后发布的总结声明于周五公布，预测该市的国内生产总值（GDP）增长将从 2025 年的 3.5% 放缓至今年的 2.4%。IMF 将预期的放缓归因于外部需求疲软和中东战争导致的金融环境收紧。中期来看，IMF 预计香港的 GDP 将以约 2.25% 的速度增长，通胀率将从 2025 年的 1.4% 逐渐上升至 2.5%。报告将香港去年强于预期的经济增长归因于强劲的技术出口、改善的私人需求和金融市场的反弹。报告强调，香港巩固了其作为全球金融中心和中国大陆与世界之间的 “超级连接者” 的地位。但 IMF 警告称，该市的经济复苏仍不完整，多个经济指标仍低于疫情前水平。报告指出：“经济闲置虽然逐渐缩小，但仍然存在。” 报告称：“私人投资尚未完全恢复，劳动力参与率处于历史低位，访客到达人数仍低于疫情前水平。” 报告还指出，尽管住宅物业价格趋于稳定，但商业房地产市场仍然冷淡，特别是零售和办公领域，仍面临需求结构变化和高空置率的逆风。报告预测，香港的经济增长将温和，前景偏向下行，原因包括地缘政治紧张局势升级、中东冲突加剧，以及持续的商品价格压力、更高的全球利率、贸易碎片化和金融市场波动加剧。报告指出：“鉴于香港高度开放和金融互联的特性，这些冲击将迅速传导。” 报告提到，较脆弱的行业包括中小企业和房地产行业。在公共财政方面，报告预测香港的赤字将在中期内逐步缩小，但其综合赤字将持续到 2031 年。报告称：“尽管 2026 年的财政立场似乎适当，但应重点实现更强的中期整合，包括优先考虑财政改革。” 报告强调，因人口老龄化、社会保障需求和大型基础设施项目而产生的结构性支出压力。“渐进式节省和选择性的 ‘用户付费’ 调整虽然有帮助，但将使财政状况暴露于该地区狭窄和周期性的收入基础之下，” 报告指出。“因此，未来需要更广泛的收入改革，以加强和稳定收入基础。” 在最新预算中，政府于去年二月公布，计划在未来两个财政年度内每年削减 2% 的经常性支出，同时坚持用户付费和 “可负担用户付费” 原则以增加收入。对此，财政司司长陈茂波表示，政府将分析该任务组的建议。陈表示：“我们注意到总结声明中关于香港商业房地产部门的观点，” 并强调政府已推出一系列市场稳定政策。“目前，香港的商业房地产市场已趋于稳定，交易和租赁量显著上升，价格和租金趋于平稳。” 陈还强调，政府的运营账户将在未来五年内记录不断增加的盈余，反映出收入增加和支出控制措施的有效性。他指出，综合赤字主要归因于对北部都会区大型项目的投资，该项目将在长期内产生更广泛的经济效益和额外的税收收入。“展望未来，香港的经济增长前景积极，受到全球对人工智能相关电子产品的强劲需求、访客到达人数的持续增长和强劲的跨境金融活动的支撑，” 陈表示。</p>
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IMF lauds resilient Hong Kong economy, but warns of risks linked to Mideast war

- IMF 赞扬香港经济韧性，警告地缘政治紧张带来下行风险。  
- 预测香港 GDP 2025 年增长放缓至 3.5%，2026 年为 2.4%。  
- 政府计划财政改革以增强收入，商业房地产市场待改善。

国际货币基金组织赞扬香港经济的韧性，但警告与中东战争相关的风险