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<p>在互联网泡沫崩溃 25 年后，曾经象征着互联网繁荣过度的公司再次成为华尔街最火热的反弹中心，这些公司曾在市场价值上消失了数万亿美元。</p>
<p>思科系统、英特尔和康宁——这三家公司在 2000 年科技泡沫中经历了迅猛的崛起与崩溃——如今正因投资者对人工智能的热情而上演戏剧性的复苏。</p>
<p>它们的联合复苏重新点燃了关于市场是否正在经历另一个投机狂潮早期阶段的辩论。</p>
<p>本周，思科发布了强于预期的财报，并大幅提高了对人工智能相关需求的展望，进一步加速了这一轮反弹。</p>
<p>这家网络巨头的股价在周四飙升 17%，创下历史新高，标志着其 20 多年来最大单日涨幅，也是自 2002 年互联网泡沫崩溃以来的最佳表现。</p>
<p>这一举动进一步推动了与人工智能基础设施相关的传统科技股的整体反弹，帮助 State Street 科技精选行业 ETF 在本周早些时候创下历史新高。</p>
<p>然而，许多投资者发现，90 年代末的相似之处越来越难以忽视。</p>
<h2>思科的人工智能复苏让华尔街感到惊讶</h2>
<p>本周早些时候，期权交易者开始大量押注思科的看涨期权，预计其人工智能基础设施业务将推动强劲的财报。</p>
<p>这些押注得到了回报。</p>
<p>思科在收入和盈利方面均超出华尔街预期，同时报告了来自重度投资人工智能数据中心的超大规模云服务提供商的需求急剧上升。</p>
<p>该公司表示，在本财年迄今已获得来自超大规模云服务商的 53 亿美元人工智能基础设施订单，并将全年预期从 50 亿美元上调至 90 亿美元。</p>
<p>管理层表示，这一增长是由于需求激增，且没有减缓的迹象。</p>
<p>思科越来越多地将自己定位为人工智能数据中心所需网络设备、光学和硅的关键供应商，受益于科技巨头在建设人工智能基础设施方面的巨额支出。</p>
<p>该股今年以来已上涨超过 50%。</p>
<p>“这里有着 90 年代的巨大既视感——但实际上这可能只是思科投资于硅和光学的回报刚刚开始，” Melius Research 分析师 Ben Reitzes 在一份报告中写道。</p>
<p>“思科在这里的感觉很像英特尔，因为冰球已经滑向首席执行官 Chuck Robbins 投资的地方——这为公司定制的硅和光学带来了回报，” Melius 的分析师补充道。</p>
<p>Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 也指出了互联网繁荣时代的回声。</p>
<p>“1999 年打电话过来了，它想要回它的网络繁荣，” Daryanani 在巴伦周刊的报道中表示，同时提高了对思科股票的目标价。</p>
<p>“这是一个突破性的表现，我们预计随着投资者认识到增长的持久性，股票应该会继续上涨。”</p>
<h2>英特尔和康宁加入老科技复兴</h2>
<p>思科并不是唯一复苏的公司。</p>
<p>英特尔，曾被认为是互联网泡沫后最大的受害者之一，上个月在一轮反弹中超过了崩溃前的峰值，今年股价大约上涨了 200%。</p>
<p>该公司的复苏部分归因于对人工智能芯片的乐观情绪以及对首席执行官 Lip-Bu Tan 的转型战略的信心。</p>
<p>自 Tan 去年 3 月接任以来，英特尔的市值增加了超过 5000 亿美元。</p>
<p>康宁，这家光纤和特种玻璃制造商，在互联网泡沫破裂后股价暴跌，如今也实现了显著反弹。</p>
<p>该股今年上涨超过 115%，并超过了 2000 年 9 月创下的历史最高点。</p>
<p>康宁受益于与人工智能基础设施相关的交易，包括与英伟达的合作，同时还为苹果的 iPhone 提供玻璃。</p>
<p>思科、英特尔和康宁共同成为了更广泛的 “老科技” 复兴的象征，随着投资者寻找能够从人工智能支出中受益的基础设施公司。</p>
<h2>泡沫担忧开始 resurfacing</h2>
<p>然而，这一轮反弹也唤起了对 90 年代末不安的记忆。</p>
<p>在 2000 年春季，思科、英特尔和康宁都在科技市场以壮观的方式崩溃前创下了历史新高。</p>
<p>思科在 1999 年互联网繁荣期间上涨超过 126%，在接下来的 18 个月中因互联网泡沫破裂而损失了约 90% 的价值。</p>
<p>该股在上个月之前未能在月度基础上收于 2000 年 3 月的峰值之上。</p>
<p>一些市场老兵现在担心，当前对人工智能的痴迷开始类似于那个时代的投机热潮。</p>
<p>上周，著名投资者迈克尔·伯里——因预测《大空头》中描绘的住房崩溃而闻名——警告称，市场对人工智能的迷恋越来越像互联网泡沫的最后阶段。</p>
<p>“绝对是不断的人工智能。没有人在整天谈论其他事情，” 伯里在一篇 Substack 文章中写道。</p>
<p>“股票的涨跌与就业或消费者情绪无关，” 他写道。</p>
<p>“它们直线上涨，因为它们一直在直线上涨。基于一个每个人都认为自己理解的两字论点……感觉就像 1999-2000 年泡沫的最后几个月。”</p>
<p>对冲基金亿万富翁保罗·都铎·琼斯也将当前的人工智能反弹与 20 多年前科技崩溃前的环境进行了比较。</p>
<p>琼斯本周表示，今天的市场感觉与 1999 年相似——大约在科技股达到峰值前的一年——尽管他认为反弹仍有继续的空间。</p>
<p>“想象一下，如果股市再上涨 40%，” 琼斯在 CNBC 上说。</p>
<p>“股市 GDP 可能会达到 300%、350%。你只知道会有一些……令人震惊的修正。”</p>
<h2>为什么分析师认为这轮周期可能有所不同</h2>
<p>尽管担忧日益加剧，但许多分析师认为，今天的人工智能热潮与互联网泡沫时代的投机过度之间存在重要差异。</p>
<p>LPL Financial 的首席股票策略师 Jeff Buchbinder 在《巴伦周刊》的报道中表示：“人工智能牛市周期与 1990 年代末的互联网泡沫之间有明显相似之处。”</p>
<p>“科技股提供了市场领导力；估值较高；市场存在投机的部分；科技进步改变了生活。”</p>
<p>然而，Buchbinder 指出，人工智能的建设主要是通过真实的现金流来资助，而不仅仅是投机。</p>
<p>今天的主导科技公司也比 1990 年代末的许多互联网公司盈利能力更强。</p>
<p>“在当前科技革命中，哪些公司处于领先地位，股市如何对它们进行估值，投机程度如何，以及我们处于周期的哪个阶段，我们看到重要的区别，” 他补充道。</p>
<p>“我们认为这轮牛市还有很长的路要走，并预计科技行业将继续引领。”</p>
<p>前摩根大通首席经济学家 Anthony Chan 也表达了相同的观点。</p>
<p>Chan 写道：“目前主导市场的许多领先人工智能公司都是盈利的，并且产生了巨额现金流。”</p>
<p>“在互联网泡沫时代，许多互联网公司几乎没有盈利或收入。今天的领先科技公司是历史上最盈利的公司之一。像微软、Alphabet 和 NVIDIA 这样的公司每年产生数十亿美元的收益，并在数字经济的关键领域拥有强大的定价能力。”</p>
<p>关于人工智能的时间机器：思科、英特尔和康宁如何重燃对科技崩溃的恐惧，首发于 Invezz</p>

英特尔

思科

康宁

2 倍做多 INTC ETF - GraniteShares

CSCL

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

纳斯达克半导体 ETF - First Trust

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

动态半导体 ETF - Invesco

<p>思科、英特尔和康宁正在经历显著的复苏，令人想起互联网泡沫时代，这一切都源于投资者对人工智能的热情。在报告强劲的财报并上调人工智能需求展望后，思科的股价上涨了 17%。英特尔和康宁也实现了可观的涨幅，英特尔的股票今年上涨了 200%。这一复苏引发了人们对可能出现类似于 1990 年代末的投机狂潮的担忧，因为这些公司成为了在人工智能基础设施投资不断增加的背景下 “旧科技” 复兴的象征</p>

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<p>More than 25 years after the dot-com crash wiped out trillions of dollars in market value, some of the same companies that once symbolised the excesses of the internet boom are once again at the centre of Wall Street’s hottest rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在互联网泡沫崩溃 25 年后，曾经象征着互联网繁荣过度的公司再次成为华尔街最火热的反弹中心，这些公司曾在市场价值上消失了数万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Cisco Systems, Intel and Corning — three companies whose meteoric rise and collapse came to define the technology bubble of 2000 — are now staging dramatic comebacks powered by investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>思科系统、英特尔和康宁——这三家公司在 2000 年科技泡沫中经历了迅猛的崛起与崩溃——如今正因投资者对人工智能的热情而上演戏剧性的复苏。</p>
</div><p>Their combined resurgence has reignited debate over whether markets are witnessing the early stages of another speculative mania.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它们的联合复苏重新点燃了关于市场是否正在经历另一个投机狂潮早期阶段的辩论。</p>
</div><p>The renewed rally accelerated this week after Cisco delivered stronger-than-expected earnings and sharply raised its outlook for AI-related demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，思科发布了强于预期的财报，并大幅提高了对人工智能相关需求的展望，进一步加速了这一轮反弹。</p>
</div><p>The networking giant’s shares surged 17% on Thursday to a record high, marking their biggest single-day gain in more than two decades and their best performance since the aftermath of the dot-com collapse in 2002.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家网络巨头的股价在周四飙升 17%，创下历史新高，标志着其 20 多年来最大单日涨幅，也是自 2002 年互联网泡沫崩溃以来的最佳表现。</p>
</div><p>The move added to a broader rally across legacy technology stocks tied to AI infrastructure, helping propel the State Street Technology Select Sector ETF to fresh all-time highs earlier this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举动进一步推动了与人工智能基础设施相关的传统科技股的整体反弹，帮助 State Street 科技精选行业 ETF 在本周早些时候创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>Yet the similarities to the late 1990s are becoming difficult for many investors to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，许多投资者发现，90 年代末的相似之处越来越难以忽视。</p>
</div><h2>Cisco’s AI comeback surprises Wall Street</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>思科的人工智能复苏让华尔街感到惊讶</h2>
</div><p>Earlier this week, options traders had begun piling into bullish bets on Cisco, anticipating a strong earnings report driven by its AI infrastructure business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周早些时候，期权交易者开始大量押注思科的看涨期权，预计其人工智能基础设施业务将推动强劲的财报。</p>
</div><p>Those wagers paid off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些押注得到了回报。</p>
</div><p>Cisco beat Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings while reporting a sharp rise in demand from hyperscale cloud providers investing heavily in AI data centres.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>思科在收入和盈利方面均超出华尔街预期，同时报告了来自重度投资人工智能数据中心的超大规模云服务提供商的需求急剧上升。</p>
</div><p>The company said it had booked $5.3 billion in AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers so far this fiscal year and raised its full-year expectations to $9 billion from $5 billion previously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司表示，在本财年迄今已获得来自超大规模云服务商的 53 亿美元人工智能基础设施订单，并将全年预期从 50 亿美元上调至 90 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Management said the increase was driven by booming demand that showed little sign of slowing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层表示，这一增长是由于需求激增，且没有减缓的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Cisco has increasingly positioned itself as a crucial supplier of networking gear, optics and silicon used in AI data centres, benefiting from massive spending by technology giants racing to build AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>思科越来越多地将自己定位为人工智能数据中心所需网络设备、光学和硅的关键供应商，受益于科技巨头在建设人工智能基础设施方面的巨额支出。</p>
</div><p>The stock has gained more than 50% this year alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股今年以来已上涨超过 50%。</p>
</div><p>“Massive déjà vu here from 1990s — but it actually could be just beginning for Cisco as their investments in silicon and optics pay off,” Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes wrote in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这里有着 90 年代的巨大既视感——但实际上这可能只是思科投资于硅和光学的回报刚刚开始，” Melius Research 分析师 Ben Reitzes 在一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>“Cisco feels a lot like Intel here, as the puck has gone to where CEO Chuck Robbins invested — rewarding the company for its custom silicon and optics,” analysts at Melius added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“思科在这里的感觉很像英特尔，因为冰球已经滑向首席执行官 Chuck Robbins 投资的地方——这为公司定制的硅和光学带来了回报，” Melius 的分析师补充道。</p>
</div><p>Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani also pointed to echoes of the internet boom era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore ISI 分析师 Amit Daryanani 也指出了互联网繁荣时代的回声。</p>
</div><p>“1999 called, and it wants its networking boom back,” Daryanani said in a Barron's report while lifting his price target on Cisco shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“1999 年打电话过来了，它想要回它的网络繁荣，” Daryanani 在巴伦周刊的报道中表示，同时提高了对思科股票的目标价。</p>
</div><p>“This is a breakout print, and we expect as investors appreciate the durability of growth here the stock should work higher.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是一个突破性的表现，我们预计随着投资者认识到增长的持久性，股票应该会继续上涨。”</p>
</div><h2>Intel and Corning join the old-tech revival</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英特尔和康宁加入老科技复兴</h2>
</div><p>Cisco is not alone in its resurgence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>思科并不是唯一复苏的公司。</p>
</div><p>Intel, once considered one of the biggest casualties of the post-dot-com era, surpassed its pre-crash peak last month amid a rally that has seen the stock surge roughly 200% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔，曾被认为是互联网泡沫后最大的受害者之一，上个月在一轮反弹中超过了崩溃前的峰值，今年股价大约上涨了 200%。</p>
</div><p>The company’s revival has been tied partly to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence chips and confidence in CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s turnaround strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的复苏部分归因于对人工智能芯片的乐观情绪以及对首席执行官 Lip-Bu Tan 的转型战略的信心。</p>
</div><p>Since Tan took over in March last year, Intel has added more than $500 billion in market value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 Tan 去年 3 月接任以来，英特尔的市值增加了超过 5000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Corning, the fibre-optics and specialty glass maker whose shares collapsed after the internet bubble burst, has also staged a remarkable rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>康宁，这家光纤和特种玻璃制造商，在互联网泡沫破裂后股价暴跌，如今也实现了显著反弹。</p>
</div><p>The stock has climbed more than 115% this year and exceeded its previous record high set in September 2000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股今年上涨超过 115%，并超过了 2000 年 9 月创下的历史最高点。</p>
</div><p>Corning has benefited from deals tied to AI infrastructure, including partnerships with Nvidia, while also supplying glass for Apple’s iPhones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>康宁受益于与人工智能基础设施相关的交易，包括与英伟达的合作，同时还为苹果的 iPhone 提供玻璃。</p>
</div><p>Together, Cisco, Intel and Corning have become symbols of a broader “old tech” revival that has swept through markets as investors hunt for infrastructure companies positioned to benefit from AI spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>思科、英特尔和康宁共同成为了更广泛的 “老科技” 复兴的象征，随着投资者寻找能够从人工智能支出中受益的基础设施公司。</p>
</div><h2>Bubble fears begin to resurface</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>泡沫担忧开始 resurfacing</h2>
</div><p>However, the rally has also revived uncomfortable memories of the late 1990s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一轮反弹也唤起了对 90 年代末不安的记忆。</p>
</div><p>In the spring of 2000, Cisco, Intel and Corning all hit record highs shortly before technology markets collapsed in spectacular fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2000 年春季，思科、英特尔和康宁都在科技市场以壮观的方式崩溃前创下了历史新高。</p>
</div><p>Cisco, which had surged more than 126% during the internet boom in 1999, went on to lose roughly 90% of its value over the following 18 months as the dot-com bubble burst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>思科在 1999 年互联网繁荣期间上涨超过 126%，在接下来的 18 个月中因互联网泡沫破裂而损失了约 90% 的价值。</p>
</div><p>The stock failed to close above its March 2000 peak on a monthly basis until last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股在上个月之前未能在月度基础上收于 2000 年 3 月的峰值之上。</p>
</div><p>Some market veterans now worry that the current obsession with AI is beginning to resemble the speculative fervour of that era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些市场老兵现在担心，当前对人工智能的痴迷开始类似于那个时代的投机热潮。</p>
</div><p>Last week, famed investor Michael Burry — known for predicting the housing crash depicted in “The Big Short” — warned that the market’s fixation on AI looked increasingly similar to the final phase of the dot-com bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，著名投资者迈克尔·伯里——因预测《大空头》中描绘的住房崩溃而闻名——警告称，市场对人工智能的迷恋越来越像互联网泡沫的最后阶段。</p>
</div><p>“Absolutely non-stop AI. Nobody is talking about anything else all day,” Burry wrote in a Substack post.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“绝对是不断的人工智能。没有人在整天谈论其他事情，” 伯里在一篇 Substack 文章中写道。</p>
</div><p>“Stocks are not up or down because of jobs or consumer sentiment,” he wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“股票的涨跌与就业或消费者情绪无关，” 他写道。</p>
</div><p>“They are going straight up because they have been going straight up. On a two letter thesis that everyone thinks they understand. ... Feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“它们直线上涨，因为它们一直在直线上涨。基于一个每个人都认为自己理解的两字论点……感觉就像 1999-2000 年泡沫的最后几个月。”</p>
</div><p>Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones has also drawn comparisons between the current AI rally and the environment that preceded the technology crash more than two decades ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对冲基金亿万富翁保罗·都铎·琼斯也将当前的人工智能反弹与 20 多年前科技崩溃前的环境进行了比较。</p>
</div><p>Jones said this week that markets today feel similar to 1999 — roughly a year before technology stocks peaked — though he believes the rally may still have room to continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>琼斯本周表示，今天的市场感觉与 1999 年相似——大约在科技股达到峰值前的一年——尽管他认为反弹仍有继续的空间。</p>
</div><p>“Just imagine the stock market went up another 40%,” Jones said on CNBC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“想象一下，如果股市再上涨 40%，” 琼斯在 CNBC 上说。</p>
</div><p>“The stock market GDP is going to probably be good lord 300%, 350%. You just know that there’ll be some ... breathtaking kind of corrections.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“股市 GDP 可能会达到 300%、350%。你只知道会有一些……令人震惊的修正。”</p>
</div><h2>Why analysts say this cycle may be different</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么分析师认为这轮周期可能有所不同</h2>
</div><p>Despite growing concerns, many analysts argue there are important differences between today’s AI boom and the speculative excesses of the dot-com era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管担忧日益加剧，但许多分析师认为，今天的人工智能热潮与互联网泡沫时代的投机过度之间存在重要差异。</p>
</div><p>“There are clear similarities between the AI bull market cycle and the dot-com boom of the late 1990s,” Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said in a Barron’s report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LPL Financial 的首席股票策略师 Jeff Buchbinder 在《巴伦周刊》的报道中表示：“人工智能牛市周期与 1990 年代末的互联网泡沫之间有明显相似之处。”</p>
</div><p>“Technology stocks provided market leadership; valuations were elevated; there were segments of market speculation; and technology advances were life changing.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“科技股提供了市场领导力；估值较高；市场存在投机的部分；科技进步改变了生活。”</p>
</div><p>However, Buchbinder noted that the AI buildout is being funded largely through real cash flows rather than speculation alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Buchbinder 指出，人工智能的建设主要是通过真实的现金流来资助，而不仅仅是投机。</p>
</div><p>Today’s dominant technology companies are also vastly more profitable than many internet firms during the late 1990s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的主导科技公司也比 1990 年代末的许多互联网公司盈利能力更强。</p>
</div><p>“In terms of what companies are leading the current technology revolution, how the stock market is valuing them, how much speculation is taking place, and what stage of the cycle we’re in, we see important distinctions,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在当前科技革命中，哪些公司处于领先地位，股市如何对它们进行估值，投机程度如何，以及我们处于周期的哪个阶段，我们看到重要的区别，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><p>“We think this bull market still has a way to go and expect the technology sector to lead.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为这轮牛市还有很长的路要走，并预计科技行业将继续引领。”</p>
</div><p>Former Chase chief economist Anthony Chan echoed that view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前摩根大通首席经济学家 Anthony Chan 也表达了相同的观点。</p>
</div><p>“Many of the leading AI companies currently dominating the market are profitable and generating enormous cash flows,” Chan wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chan 写道：“目前主导市场的许多领先人工智能公司都是盈利的，并且产生了巨额现金流。”</p>
</div><p>“During the dot-com era, numerous internet companies had little or no earnings and limited revenues. Today’s leading technology firms are among the most profitable corporations in history. Companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, and NVIDIA generate billions in earnings and possess substantial pricing power in critical areas of the digital economy.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在互联网泡沫时代，许多互联网公司几乎没有盈利或收入。今天的领先科技公司是历史上最盈利的公司之一。像微软、Alphabet 和 NVIDIA 这样的公司每年产生数十亿美元的收益，并在数字经济的关键领域拥有强大的定价能力。”</p>
</div><p>The post AI’s time machine: How Cisco, Intel, and Corning are reviving fears of the tech crash appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于人工智能的时间机器：思科、英特尔和康宁如何重燃对科技崩溃的恐惧，首发于 Invezz</p>
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AI’s time machine: How Cisco, Intel, and Corning are reviving fears of the tech crash

- 思科、英特尔和康宁等旧科技股因 AI 热潮复苏，市值回升。  
- 思科报告强劲财报，股价单日暴涨 17%，引发市场关注。  
- 然而，部分投资者忧虑当前 AI 热潮是否重演互联网泡沫。

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AI 的时间机器：思科、英特尔和康宁如何重新引发对科技崩溃的担忧