<div id="readability-page-1">Shift in rate outlook: Markets now price in over a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by December 2026, reversing earlier expectations for cuts. Inflation still stubborn: Core import prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in April, while energy costs surged amid Iran conflict-related supply disruptions. Consumers feeling strain: Lower-income households are depleting tax refunds quickly as inflation outpaces wages, raising risks of a spending slowdown.</div>

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<p>市场目前预计到 2026 年 12 月美联储加息的概率超过 50%，这与之前对降息的预期相反。4 月份核心进口价格同比上涨了 3.3%，能源成本因伊朗冲突导致的供应中断而上升。低收入家庭的税收退款迅速减少，因为通货膨胀超过了工资增长，这引发了对潜在消费放缓的担忧</p>

Markets see December Fed hike as inflation stays high

- 市场预计 2026 年 12 月美联储加息概率超过 50%。  
- 4 月核心进口价格同比上涨 3.3%，能源成本因伊朗冲突上涨。  
- 低收入家庭快速消耗退税，通胀加速拖累消费支出。

由于通胀持续高企，市场预计美联储将在 12 月加息