<p>作者：Jeffry Bartash</p>
<p>到目前为止，伊朗战争的影响有限</p>
<p>由于消费者支出，美国经济并未受到伊朗战争的严重影响。</p>
<p>在伊朗战争开始近三个月后，美国人仍在大量消费，以保持美国经济的持续增长。虽然出现了一些压力迹象，但不足以表明经济会出现重大下滑。</p>
<p>关于消费者支出的最新证据——经济的主要引擎——显示，自 2 月底伊朗冲突开始以来，家庭购买几乎没有减少。</p>
<p>例如，美国零售销售在四月份连续第三个月以高于趋势的速度增长，信用卡消费上个月尤其强劲。</p>
<p>“美国消费者真是令人惊叹，” 桑坦德资本市场首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利表示。“无论遇到什么困难，消费者支出似乎总能在美国保持稳定。”</p>
<p>稳定的消费者支出，加上人工智能领域商业投资的大幅增长，可能会导致第二季度的强劲增长，这一增长基于被称为国内生产总值的官方经济评分标准。</p>
<p>虽然周期仍处于早期阶段，但亚特兰大联邦储备银行的 GDPNow 预测工具预测第二季度增长 4%，是第一季度 2% 增幅的两倍。</p>
<p>需求与需要</p>
<p>毫无疑问，消费者支出的一个不容忽视的部分是由于与伊朗冲突相关的油价大幅上涨。更高的能源成本已将通货膨胀率推高至三年来的最高点 3.8%——而且可能还会进一步上升。</p>
<p>然而，大多数商品和服务的成本自战争以来并没有上涨太多，除了汽油或机票等非常明显的价格。更高的能源价格需要时间才能渗透到经济的每一个角落。</p>
<p>在四月份，美国人在网上购物或外出就餐上花了很多钱。互联网销售增长超过 1%，餐厅消费在过去三个月中第二次大幅上升。</p>
<p>“显然，消费者并没有减少他们的亚马逊订单或外出就餐的次数，” 杰富瑞公司的首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯表示。</p>
<p>这些购买——需求而非需要——在经济信号中至关重要。当美国人感到经济安全时，这些消费会增加，而当家庭面临压力时则会减少。</p>
<p>“如果家庭面临严重的财务困境，他们就不会经常外出就餐，” 斯坦利认为。“我认为这一类别的良好增长是消费者感到不错的明显迹象。”</p>
<p>消费者行为分析师奇普·韦斯特表示，美国人对油价上涨的反应是更加挑剔地选择购买的商品。他们寻找更多的优惠和折扣，购买自有品牌，并使用忠诚度计划的积分。</p>
<p>“购物者对价格感到沮丧，但他们并没有停止消费，” RR Donnelley 的类别战略总监韦斯特表示。“相反，他们变得更加具有战略性和选择性。”</p>
<p>信用卡还是借记卡？</p>
<p>信用卡和银行账户数据也显示出消费者支出的韧性。</p>
<p>美国银行研究所表示，其内部数据显示，在截至四月份的 12 个月中，除了汽油外，所有商品和服务的信用卡消费增长了 4%。</p>
<p>“无论是否包括汽油，四月份的消费都很强劲，” 该研究所表示。</p>
<p>一些经济学家对此持不同意见。他们认为消费者只是原地踏步；更高的通货膨胀意味着他们的生活水平没有改善。</p>
<p>“虽然资金可能在消费，但购买的东西却不多，” 宏观复兴研究的经济学主管尼尔·达图表示。</p>
<p>其他分析师指出，信用卡消费的增加是一个警告信号，表明消费者的财务状况日益紧张，预示着随着能源价格和通货膨胀的上升，家庭财务将受到影响，消费将放缓。</p>
<p>“越来越多的消费者转向储蓄和信用来维持消费，” 安永帕特农的经济学家格雷戈里·达科和莉迪亚·布索尔写道。“这些趋势越来越难以维持，特别是对于低收入家庭。”</p>
<p>‘K 型’ 经济</p>
<p>美国银行研究所同意，低收入家庭感受到更多压力并在削减开支。</p>
<p>然而，它也指出，银行存款状况良好，信用卡使用处于安全水平，只有大约一半的税收退款被花费。</p>
<p>“家庭在短期内有一些缓冲来支持他们的消费，” 该研究所表示。</p>
<p>低失业率和接近历史低点的裁员水平也是进一步消费的重要支柱，因为人们在工作安全时会消费更多。</p>
<p>然而，高收入和低收入家庭之间的差距是经济学家最担忧的问题之一——他们称之为 “K 型” 经济。</p>
<p>富裕的美国人过得很好：强劲的股票牛市创造了大量 401(k) 百万富翁，他们的房产价值也相当可观。高收入人群还拥有更多的电动车和混合动力车，且在汽油上的支出较少。</p>
<p>生活在薪水到薪水之间的低收入家庭几乎没有财务缓冲。如果油价持续高企，情况将变得更糟，因为他们在燃料和交通成本上的支出占收入的比例更大。</p>
<p>最终，这些压力可能足以抑制经济，尤其是如果利率继续上升。富裕的美国人无法无限期地支撑经济——他们的数量并不足够。</p>
<p>“财富效应和个人所得税减免继续支撑美国消费者支出，但上升的通货膨胀和较高的长期利率可能会开始产生更大的压力，” BMO 资本市场的高级经济学家萨尔·瓜特里表示。</p>
<p>——Jeffry Bartash</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>05-16-26 0900ET</p>

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道琼斯美国指数

标普 500 指数

<p>尽管油价高企和通货膨胀，美国消费者支出依然强劲，支持经济增长。四月份零售销售上升，信用卡消费增加，显示出消费者的韧性。然而，一些经济学家警告称，通货膨胀可能正在侵蚀生活水平，低收入家庭感受到更大的财务压力。经济显示出 “K 型” 复苏的迹象，富裕的美国人表现得比低收入者更好</p>

<p>By Jeffry Bartash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Jeffry Bartash</p>
</div><p>The effects of Iran war have been muted so far</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，伊朗战争的影响有限</p>
</div><p>The U.S. economy hasn't been hurt much by the Iran war thanks to consumer spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于消费者支出，美国经济并未受到伊朗战争的严重影响。</p>
</div><p>Nearly three months into the Iran war, Americans are still spending plenty of money to keep the U.S. economy on the up and up. Some signs of stress have emerged, but not enough to suggest a major stumble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗战争开始近三个月后，美国人仍在大量消费，以保持美国经济的持续增长。虽然出现了一些压力迹象，但不足以表明经济会出现重大下滑。</p>
</div><p>The latest evidence on consumer spending - the main engine of the economy - shows little or no pullback in household purchases since the Iran conflict began at the end of February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于消费者支出的最新证据——经济的主要引擎——显示，自 2 月底伊朗冲突开始以来，家庭购买几乎没有减少。</p>
</div><p>U.S retail sales rose in April at an above-trend pace for the third month in a row, for example, and credit-card spending was particularly strong last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，美国零售销售在四月份连续第三个月以高于趋势的速度增长，信用卡消费上个月尤其强劲。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The U.S. consumer is simply remarkable,&#34; said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander Capital Markets. &#34;Through thick and thin, consumer spending always seems to hold up in the U.S., regardless of the headwinds that households face. &#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美国消费者真是令人惊叹，” 桑坦德资本市场首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利表示。“无论遇到什么困难，消费者支出似乎总能在美国保持稳定。”</p>
</div><p>Stable consumer spending, plus a big surge in business investment in artificial intelligence, could lead to robust second-quarter growth based on the official scorecard for the economy known as gross domestic product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稳定的消费者支出，加上人工智能领域商业投资的大幅增长，可能会导致第二季度的强劲增长，这一增长基于被称为国内生产总值的官方经济评分标准。</p>
</div><p>It's still early in the cycle, but the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecasting tool predicts 4% growth in the second quarter, double the 2% increase in the first three months of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然周期仍处于早期阶段，但亚特兰大联邦储备银行的 GDPNow 预测工具预测第二季度增长 4%，是第一季度 2% 增幅的两倍。</p>
</div><p>Wants and needs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求与需要</p>
</div><p>A not-insignificant portion of consumer spending, to be sure, is the result of a big jump in gas prices since the conflict with Iran. Higher energy costs have pushed the rate of inflation to a three-year high of 3.8% - and it could go higher still.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，消费者支出的一个不容忽视的部分是由于与伊朗冲突相关的油价大幅上涨。更高的能源成本已将通货膨胀率推高至三年来的最高点 3.8%——而且可能还会进一步上升。</p>
</div><p>The cost of most goods and services, however, haven't risen that much since the war, save for very visible prices such as gasoline or airline tickets. It takes time for higher energy prices to work their way into every nook and cranny of the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，大多数商品和服务的成本自战争以来并没有上涨太多，除了汽油或机票等非常明显的价格。更高的能源价格需要时间才能渗透到经济的每一个角落。</p>
</div><p>In April, Americans spent a lot of money shopping online or going out to eat for dinner. Internet sales rose more than 1% and restaurant spending was up sharply for the second time in the past three months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在四月份，美国人在网上购物或外出就餐上花了很多钱。互联网销售增长超过 1%，餐厅消费在过去三个月中第二次大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Clearly, consumers didn't trim back their Amazon shipments or restaurant trips,&#34; said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“显然，消费者并没有减少他们的亚马逊订单或外出就餐的次数，” 杰富瑞公司的首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯表示。</p>
</div><p>These are the sorts of purchases - wants, not needs - that are crucial as an economic signal. They rise when Americans feel secure enough financially, and soften when families are under duress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些购买——需求而非需要——在经济信号中至关重要。当美国人感到经济安全时，这些消费会增加，而当家庭面临压力时则会减少。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Households would not be going out to dinner regularly if they were in serious financial trouble,&#34; Stanley contended. &#34;The decent gains in this category are, in my view, a telltale sign that the consumer feels OK.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果家庭面临严重的财务困境，他们就不会经常外出就餐，” 斯坦利认为。“我认为这一类别的良好增长是消费者感到不错的明显迹象。”</p>
</div><p>Consumer-behavior analyst Chip West says Americans have responded to higher gas prices by being more selective in what they buy. They search for more deals and discounts, buy in-house brands and use bonus points from loyalty programs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者行为分析师奇普·韦斯特表示，美国人对油价上涨的反应是更加挑剔地选择购买的商品。他们寻找更多的优惠和折扣，购买自有品牌，并使用忠诚度计划的积分。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Shoppers are frustrated by prices, but they haven't stopped spending,&#34; said West, director of category strategy at RR Donnelley. &#34;Instead, they've become far more strategic and selective.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“购物者对价格感到沮丧，但他们并没有停止消费，” RR Donnelley 的类别战略总监韦斯特表示。“相反，他们变得更加具有战略性和选择性。”</p>
</div><p>Credit or debit?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信用卡还是借记卡？</p>
</div><p>Credit-card and banking account data also point to resilient consumer spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>信用卡和银行账户数据也显示出消费者支出的韧性。</p>
</div><p>Bank of America Institute said its internal data showed a springy 4% increase in credit-card spending in the 12 months ended in April on all goods and services other than gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行研究所表示，其内部数据显示，在截至四月份的 12 个月中，除了汽油外，所有商品和服务的信用卡消费增长了 4%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;With or without gasoline, spending was strong in April,&#34; the institute said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“无论是否包括汽油，四月份的消费都很强劲，” 该研究所表示。</p>
</div><p>Some economists disagree. They argue consumers are just running in place; higher inflation means their standard of living isn't getting any better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些经济学家对此持不同意见。他们认为消费者只是原地踏步；更高的通货膨胀意味着他们的生活水平没有改善。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Dollars might be getting spent, but not much stuff is being bought,&#34; said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Macro Renaissance Research.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然资金可能在消费，但购买的东西却不多，” 宏观复兴研究的经济学主管尼尔·达图表示。</p>
</div><p>Other analysts point to higher credit-card spending as a warning sign that consumers are increasingly stretched, foreshadowing slower spending ahead as higher energy prices and rising inflation sap household finances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他分析师指出，信用卡消费的增加是一个警告信号，表明消费者的财务状况日益紧张，预示着随着能源价格和通货膨胀的上升，家庭财务将受到影响，消费将放缓。</p>
</div><p>&#34;More consumers are turning to savings and credit to sustain spending,&#34; wrote economists Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour of EY Parthenon. &#34;These trends are becoming increasingly difficult to maintain, particularly for lower-income households.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“越来越多的消费者转向储蓄和信用来维持消费，” 安永帕特农的经济学家格雷戈里·达科和莉迪亚·布索尔写道。“这些趋势越来越难以维持，特别是对于低收入家庭。”</p>
</div><p>'K-shaped' economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘K 型’ 经济</p>
</div><p>Bank of America Institute concurred that lower-income households are feeling more stress and cutting back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行研究所同意，低收入家庭感受到更多压力并在削减开支。</p>
</div><p>Yet it also noted bank deposits are in good shape, credit-card usage is at safe levels and only about half of all tax refunds have been spent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，它也指出，银行存款状况良好，信用卡使用处于安全水平，只有大约一半的税收退款被花费。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Households have some near-term buffers to support their spending,&#34; the institute said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“家庭在短期内有一些缓冲来支持他们的消费，” 该研究所表示。</p>
</div><p>A low unemployment rate and near-record-low level of layoffs are also big pillars of support for further spending, as people spend more when they feel secure in their jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低失业率和接近历史低点的裁员水平也是进一步消费的重要支柱，因为人们在工作安全时会消费更多。</p>
</div><p>Still, the split between higher- and lower-income families is one of the chief worries of economists - what they refer to as a &#34;K-shaped&#34; economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，高收入和低收入家庭之间的差距是经济学家最担忧的问题之一——他们称之为 “K 型” 经济。</p>
</div><p>Wealthier Americans are doing fine: A powerful bull market in stocks has created scores of 401(k) millionaires, and their homes are worth a small fortune. Upper-income people also own a larger share of electric vehicles and hybrids, and don't spend as much on gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富裕的美国人过得很好：强劲的股票牛市创造了大量 401(k) 百万富翁，他们的房产价值也相当可观。高收入人群还拥有更多的电动车和混合动力车，且在汽油上的支出较少。</p>
</div><p>Lower-income families living from paycheck to paycheck have far less of a financial cushion, if any at all. The longer gas prices remain high, the worse it will get, since they spend a bigger share of their income on fuel and transportation costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生活在薪水到薪水之间的低收入家庭几乎没有财务缓冲。如果油价持续高企，情况将变得更糟，因为他们在燃料和交通成本上的支出占收入的比例更大。</p>
</div><p>Eventually, these strains could be enough to depress the economy, especially if interest rates keep rising. Richer Americans can't carry the economy by themselves indefinity -there is not enough of them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，这些压力可能足以抑制经济，尤其是如果利率继续上升。富裕的美国人无法无限期地支撑经济——他们的数量并不足够。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Wealth effects and personal income-tax cuts continue to prop up American consumer spending, but rising inflation and elevated longer-term interest rates could begin to weigh more heavily,&#34; said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“财富效应和个人所得税减免继续支撑美国消费者支出，但上升的通货膨胀和较高的长期利率可能会开始产生更大的压力，” BMO 资本市场的高级经济学家萨尔·瓜特里表示。</p>
</div><p>-Jeffry Bartash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——Jeffry Bartash</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>05-16-26 0900ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-16-26 0900ET</p>
</div>

High gas prices and inflation are stressing people out - but the economy will be fine as long as they keep spending

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BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

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