<h2><strong>欧元技术展望：EUR/USD 周交易水平</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>EUR/USD 在从主要阻力位反转后，已跌破 52 周和 200 日移动平均线。</li>
<li>5 月区间的突破正在加速，随着下行动能在更广泛的下行趋势结构中积聚。</li>
<li>初步支撑现在可见——跌破将威胁到年度下跌的持续。</li>
<li>在年度开盘价以下，反弹尝试可能会面临阻力。</li>
<li>阻力位 1.1746/75（关键），1.1849，1.1917——支撑位 1.1578/98（关键），1.1483，1.1355/94</li>
</ul>
<p>在再次未能突破主要阻力位后，EUR/USD 受到新的压力，周线反转超过 1.4%，现已跌破关键移动平均线。反转将短期焦点重新转向下行，价格现在接近 1.16 附近的关键支撑区。尽管在 4 月高点拒绝后风险仍偏向下行，但短期内的下跌可能会在这一关键支撑位受到威胁，而此处的反应可能决定下一步走势。EUR/USD 周线技术图表上的战斗线已划定。</p>
<p>查看我最新的 <strong>周策略网络研讨会</strong>，深入分析此 EUR/USD 技术设置及更多内容。<strong>周一</strong> 上午 8:30（东部时间）<strong>直播</strong>。</p>
<h3><strong>欧元价格图 – EUR/USD 周线</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260515153832-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="999" height="653" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260515153832-4.png"/></p>
<p><em>图表由 Michael Boutros 准备，资深技术策略师；</em> <em>EUR/USD 在 TradingView 上</em></p>
<p><strong>技术展望：</strong> 在我上一次的 <strong>欧元技术展望</strong> 中，我们指出 EUR/USD 正在 “连续第四周交易于年度开盘附近的关键支撑区。焦点是本月初对此区域的反应，3 月的反弹在此以下显得脆弱。从交易的角度来看，如果价格在这一阶段突破，损失应限制在 52 周移动平均线之内。” 随后的第五次尝试未能维持突破，欧元在周五急剧反转，跌破月初开盘区间低点。损失总计超过 1.9%，自 4 月高点以来，跌破 52 周和 200 日移动平均线威胁到未来几周的进一步损失。</p>
<p>初步支撑现在可见，位于 2025 年上涨的 61.8% 回撤位和 1 月收盘低点 <strong>1.1578/98</strong> 附近。该水平下方是我们一直跟踪的从年度高点延伸出的中线——跌破此斜率将威胁到年度下行趋势的恢复，下一主要技术考虑在于 4 月下跌的 1.618% 扩展位 <strong>1.1483</strong> 和关键支撑位 <strong>1.1355/94</strong>——该区域由 2025 年上涨的 38.2% 回撤位、4 月高点收盘和 7 月摆动低点定义。</p>
<p>关键阻力位仍在年度开盘、2025 年高周收盘（HWC）和 2025 年高收盘 <strong>1.1746/75</strong> 附近。请注意，61.8% 的平行线在接下来的几周内与该区域重合，突破/周收盘在此之上将需要以暗示更显著的低点已形成。最终，突破上方平行线/4 月高点 <strong>1.1849</strong> 将使年度下行趋势失效，后续阻力目标瞄准 2022 年上涨的 100% 扩展/2025 年摆动高点 <strong>1.1917/19</strong> 和 2008 年更广泛下跌的 38.2% 回撤位 <strong>1.2020</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p><strong>总结：</strong> EUR/USD 对年度开盘的关键阻力作出了反应，反转现已接近初步支撑。从交易的角度来看，如果价格在这一阶段向下，反弹需限制在年度开盘之内，收盘低于 1.1578 将需要推动下跌的下一个主要阶段。</p>
<p>请记住，下周经济日历相对清淡，欧元区 PMI 数据将成为焦点。在这些低点保持灵活，并关注周收盘以获取指导。查看我最新的 <strong>欧元短期展望</strong>，以更详细地了解近期 EUR/USD 技术交易水平。</p>
<h3><strong>关键欧元/美国经济数据发布</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260515153845-5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="726" height="646" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260515153845-5.png"/></p>
<p><strong>经济日历</strong> <strong>-</strong> 最新经济动态和即将到来的事件风险。</p>
<h3><strong>活跃的周技术图表</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>美元指数 (DXY)</li>
<li>黄金 (XAU/USD)</li>
<li>日元 (USD/JPY)</li>
<li>澳元 (AUD/USD)</li>
<li>瑞士法郎 (USD/CHF)</li>
<li>比特币 (BTC/USD)</li>
<li>英镑 (GBP/USD)</li>
<li>加元 (USD/CAD)</li>
<li>标普 500、纳斯达克、道琼斯</li>
</ul>
<p>--- 由 Michael Boutros 撰写，资深技术策略师</p>
<p>在 X 上关注 Michael <strong>@MBForex</strong></p>

欧元 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>EUR/USD 已经跌破了 52 周和 200 日移动均线，表明下行趋势正在增强。初步支撑位在 1.1578/98，如果这一水平被突破，可能会进一步下跌。阻力位仍在 1.1746/75，恢复尝试可能在年初开盘价下方遇到困难。最近超过 1.4% 的反转表明市场关注下行动能，未来几周需关注关键技术水平</p>

<h2><strong>Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>欧元技术展望：EUR/USD 周交易水平</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li>EUR/USD has broken below the 52-week and 200-day moving averages after reversing from major resistance.</li>
<li>Break of the May range is accelerating as downside momentum builds within the broader downtrend structure.</li>
<li>Initial support now in view- a break below would threaten continuation of the yearly decline.</li>
<li>Recovery attempts are likely to face resistance while below the yearly open.</li>
<li>Resistance 1.1746/75 (key), 1.1849, 1.1917- Support 1.1578/98 (key), 1.1483, 1.1355/94</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>EUR/USD 在从主要阻力位反转后，已跌破 52 周和 200 日移动平均线。</li>
<li>5 月区间的突破正在加速，随着下行动能在更广泛的下行趋势结构中积聚。</li>
<li>初步支撑现在可见——跌破将威胁到年度下跌的持续。</li>
<li>在年度开盘价以下，反弹尝试可能会面临阻力。</li>
<li>阻力位 1.1746/75（关键），1.1849，1.1917——支撑位 1.1578/98（关键），1.1483，1.1355/94</li>
</ul>
</div><p>EUR/USD is under renewed pressure after failing once again at major resistance, with a weekly reversal of more than 1.4% now breaking below key moving averages. The reversal shifts the near-term focus back to the downside, with price now approaching a key pivot zone near the 1.16-handle. While the risk remains weighted to the downside following the rejection from the April highs, the immediate decline may be vulnerable into this key support, and a reaction here may determine the next move. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在再次未能突破主要阻力位后，EUR/USD 受到新的压力，周线反转超过 1.4%，现已跌破关键移动平均线。反转将短期焦点重新转向下行，价格现在接近 1.16 附近的关键支撑区。尽管在 4 月高点拒绝后风险仍偏向下行，但短期内的下跌可能会在这一关键支撑位受到威胁，而此处的反应可能决定下一步走势。EUR/USD 周线技术图表上的战斗线已划定。</p>
</div><p>Review my latest <strong>Weekly Strategy Webinar</strong> for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. <strong>Join live</strong> on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看我最新的 <strong>周策略网络研讨会</strong>，深入分析此 EUR/USD 技术设置及更多内容。<strong>周一</strong> 上午 8:30（东部时间）<strong>直播</strong>。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>欧元价格图 – EUR/USD 周线</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260515153832-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260515153832-4.png"/></p>
<p><em>Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist;</em> <em>EUR/USD on TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图表由 Michael Boutros 准备，资深技术策略师；</em> <em>EUR/USD 在 TradingView 上</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Technical Outlook:</strong> In my last <strong>Euro Technical Forecast</strong> we noted that EUR/USD was, “trading just below a key pivot zone around the yearly open for a fourth-consecutive week. The focus is on a reaction off this region early in the month with the March rally vulnerable while below. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading for a breakout on <em>this</em> stretch..” A fifth attempt the following week failed to sustain a break with Euro reversing sharply to break the monthly opening range lows on Friday. The losses amount to decline of more than 1.9% off the April highs with a break below the 52-week &amp; 200-day moving averages threatening further losses in the weeks ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>技术展望：</strong> 在我上一次的 <strong>欧元技术展望</strong> 中，我们指出 EUR/USD 正在 “连续第四周交易于年度开盘附近的关键支撑区。焦点是本月初对此区域的反应，3 月的反弹在此以下显得脆弱。从交易的角度来看，如果价格在这一阶段突破，损失应限制在 52 周移动平均线之内。” 随后的第五次尝试未能维持突破，欧元在周五急剧反转，跌破月初开盘区间低点。损失总计超过 1.9%，自 4 月高点以来，跌破 52 周和 200 日移动平均线威胁到未来几周的进一步损失。</p>
</div><p>Initial support is now in view just lower at the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 advance and the January close low at <strong>1.1578/98</strong>. Just below this level rests the median-line of the pitchfork we have been tracking off the yearly high- losses below this slope would threaten resumption of the yearly downtrend with the next major technical considerations seen at the 1.618% extension of the April decline at <strong>1.1483</strong> and key support at the <strong>1.1355/94</strong>- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance, the April high close, and July swing low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初步支撑现在可见，位于 2025 年上涨的 61.8% 回撤位和 1 月收盘低点 <strong>1.1578/98</strong> 附近。该水平下方是我们一直跟踪的从年度高点延伸出的中线——跌破此斜率将威胁到年度下行趋势的恢复，下一主要技术考虑在于 4 月下跌的 1.618% 扩展位 <strong>1.1483</strong> 和关键支撑位 <strong>1.1355/94</strong>——该区域由 2025 年上涨的 38.2% 回撤位、4 月高点收盘和 7 月摆动低点定义。</p>
</div><p>Key resistance remains with the yearly open, the 2025 high-week close (HWC), and the 2025 high-close at <strong>1.1746/75</strong>. Note that the 61.8% parallel converges on this zone over the next few weeks and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. Ultimately, a breach above upper parallel / April high at <strong>1.1849</strong> would invalidate the yearly downtrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance / the 2025 swing high at <strong>1.1917/19</strong> and the 38.2% retracement of broader the 2008 decline at <strong>1.2020</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键阻力位仍在年度开盘、2025 年高周收盘（HWC）和 2025 年高收盘 <strong>1.1746/75</strong> 附近。请注意，61.8% 的平行线在接下来的几周内与该区域重合，突破/周收盘在此之上将需要以暗示更显著的低点已形成。最终，突破上方平行线/4 月高点 <strong>1.1849</strong> 将使年度下行趋势失效，后续阻力目标瞄准 2022 年上涨的 100% 扩展/2025 年摆动高点 <strong>1.1917/19</strong> 和 2008 年更广泛下跌的 38.2% 回撤位 <strong>1.2020</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p><strong>Bottom line:</strong> EUR/USD has responded to key resistance at the yearly open with the reversal now approaching initial support. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the yearly open IF price is heading lower on <em>this</em> stretch with a close below 1.1578 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>总结：</strong> EUR/USD 对年度开盘的关键阻力作出了反应，反转现已接近初步支撑。从交易的角度来看，如果价格在这一阶段向下，反弹需限制在年度开盘之内，收盘低于 1.1578 将需要推动下跌的下一个主要阶段。</p>
</div><p>Keep in mind the economic calendar is rather light next week with Eurozone PMI data headlining the docket. Stay nimble into these lows and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest <strong>Euro Short-term Outlook</strong> for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请记住，下周经济日历相对清淡，欧元区 PMI 数据将成为焦点。在这些低点保持灵活，并关注周收盘以获取指导。查看我最新的 <strong>欧元短期展望</strong>，以更详细地了解近期 EUR/USD 技术交易水平。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>关键欧元/美国经济数据发布</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260515153845-5.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260515153845-5.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Economic Calendar</strong> <strong>-</strong> latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>经济日历</strong> <strong>-</strong> 最新经济动态和即将到来的事件风险。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Active Weekly Technical Charts</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>活跃的周技术图表</strong></h3>
</div><ul>
<li>US Dollar Index (DXY)</li>
<li>Gold (XAU/USD)</li>
<li>Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)</li>
<li>Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)</li>
<li>Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)</li>
<li>Bitcoin (BTC/USD)</li>
<li>British Pound (GBP/USD)</li>
<li>Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)</li>
<li>S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, Dow</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美元指数 (DXY)</li>
<li>黄金 (XAU/USD)</li>
<li>日元 (USD/JPY)</li>
<li>澳元 (AUD/USD)</li>
<li>瑞士法郎 (USD/CHF)</li>
<li>比特币 (BTC/USD)</li>
<li>英镑 (GBP/USD)</li>
<li>加元 (USD/CAD)</li>
<li>标普 500、纳斯达克、道琼斯</li>
</ul>
</div><p>--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>--- 由 Michael Boutros 撰写，资深技术策略师</p>
</div><p>Follow Michael on X <strong>@MBForex</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 X 上关注 Michael <strong>@MBForex</strong></p>
</div>

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Breaks Key Averages—Downtrend Risk Builds

欧元技术预测：欧元/美元突破关键均线，面临加剧的下行趋势风险