<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/zo7oJ61l85tO9gYNlB63OA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/27e979aca214ea04390ed11aa988b3fd?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/zo7oJ61l85tO9gYNlB63OA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/27e979aca214ea04390ed11aa988b3fd"/></p>
<p>自中东冲突于二月爆发以来，印度卢比已下跌超过五个百分点（塔乌西夫·穆斯塔法）</p>
<p>随着与中东冲突相关的油价飙升，印度正急于挽救下滑的卢比，这威胁到全球增长最快的主要经济体。</p>
<p>自危机于二月爆发以来，卢比已下跌超过五个百分点，延续了 2025 年的损失，使其成为 2026 年迄今亚洲表现最差的主要货币。</p>
<p>周五，卢比兑美元汇率跌至超过 96 的历史低点，促使官员们表示，停止进一步贬值是关键的宏观经济优先事项。</p>
<p>印度央行已经投入数十亿美元来稳定货币，限制投机交易，并向石油进口商提供特别信贷额度以缓解对美元的需求。</p>
<p>印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪还呼吁自愿节约措施，以遏制对美元的需求，包括减少黄金购买和一年内的海外旅行。</p>
<p>但压力依然存在。</p>
<p>HDFC 证券的股票经纪人迪利普·帕尔马尔表示：“整个系统都受到干扰”，他提到外资大量流出、增长前景疲软和高企的原油价格。</p>
<p>“这就是你看到卢比贬值的基本问题，” 他说，并指出这最终是 “供需关系” 的结果，美元需求更高。</p>
<p>卢比的贬值正值印度面临因高昂能源进口而导致的经常账户赤字扩大。</p>
<p>根据美银证券的估计，预计本财年的赤字将超过 GDP 的 2%，是去年的两倍，可能是自 2012-13 年以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>- 赤字扩大 -</p>
<p>与此同时，自中东冲突开始以来，外国投资者已抛售超过 200 亿美元的印度股票，创下历史最快的速度，而美元流入放缓，可能导致高达 670 亿至 880 亿美元的国际收支缺口。</p>
<p>经济学家 Dhiraj Nim 对法新社表示：“2027 财年将是我们第三年出现国际收支赤字，这显然是不寻常的。”</p>
<p>这种压力对卢比造成了负担，促使央行通过消耗外汇储备来捍卫卢比——目前约为 6970 亿美元，低于中东战争前的 7200 亿美元。</p>
<p>尽管仍能覆盖约 11 个月的进口，但下降突显了压力。</p>
<p>卢比贬值正在影响国内经济。</p>
<p>许多依赖以美元计价的进口原材料的制造商和食品加工商，成本正在飙升。</p>
<p>小型企业通常缺乏对冲货币风险的能力。</p>
<p>在喀拉拉邦的腰果产业中，主要从非洲进口原料，影响尤为明显。</p>
<p>经营腰果公司的拉杰莫汉·皮莱表示：“进口对当地市场变得更加昂贵，” 他补充说，买家现在只能负担去年的约 90% 的数量。</p>
<p>他估计，近年来超过 80% 的加工单位已关闭，卢比波动是一个促成因素。</p>
<p>- '最后一根稻草' -</p>
<p>印度货币贬值也影响了希望出国留学的学生。</p>
<p>教育顾问表示，与一年前相比，在美国的学习费用现在增加了超过一百万卢比（10,450 美元）。</p>
<p>“这就是最后一根稻草，” 17 岁的心理学专业志愿者梅赫娜·森说。</p>
<p>“现在我们必须跟踪（卢比）走势，以检查我们需要多少预算来购买杂货。”</p>
<p>贬值打击了印度成为全球第三大经济体的雄心。</p>
<p>曾批评前任货币疲软的莫迪，因 GDP 比较以美元计价而看到印度的全球经济排名受到影响。</p>
<p>根据国际货币基金组织的数据，印度已滑落至第六位，主要是由于卢比贬值。</p>
<p>野村分析师警告，可能会采取更激进的措施。</p>
<p>这些措施包括可能的燃油价格上涨、对海外汇款的更严格控制，以及吸引非居民印度人的美元存款的措施——这是过去危机中使用的应对方案。</p>
<p>尽管如此，经济学家警告说，干预只能平滑波动，而无法逆转潜在压力。</p>
<p>“基本因素” 仍需解决，尼姆说，并补充道：“我甚至不排除针对未来通胀的加息。”</p>
<p>他说，印度储备银行知道自己的选择。</p>
<p>“剩下的就是看看它决定选择什么。”</p>
<p>asv/abh/sjc/abs</p>

西方石油

能源业 ETF - SPDR

美国布伦特原油期货基金

<p>印度的卢比正面临显著贬值，自 2 月份中东冲突开始以来，卢比已下跌超过 5%，成为亚洲表现最差的主要货币。中央银行正在采取措施稳定货币，包括限制投机交易和向石油进口商提供信贷额度。卢比贬值加剧了经常账户赤字，并影响了教育和制造等多个行业。分析师警告称，可能需要采取更为激烈的措施来应对潜在的经济压力</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/zo7oJ61l85tO9gYNlB63OA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/27e979aca214ea04390ed11aa988b3fd" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/zo7oJ61l85tO9gYNlB63OA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04Mjg-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/27e979aca214ea04390ed11aa988b3fd"/></p>
<p>The rupee has dropped more than five percent since the Middle East conflict erupted in February (Tauseef MUSTAFA)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自中东冲突于二月爆发以来，印度卢比已下跌超过五个百分点（塔乌西夫·穆斯塔法）</p>
</div><p>India is scrambling to salvage a sinking rupee as surging oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict threaten to disrupt the world's fastest-growing major economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着与中东冲突相关的油价飙升，印度正急于挽救下滑的卢比，这威胁到全球增长最快的主要经济体。</p>
</div><p>The currency has dropped more than five percent since the crisis erupted in February, extending losses from 2025 and making it Asia's worst-performing major currency in 2026 so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自危机于二月爆发以来，卢比已下跌超过五个百分点，延续了 2025 年的损失，使其成为 2026 年迄今亚洲表现最差的主要货币。</p>
</div><p>It hit a record low of over 96 to the dollar on Friday, prompting officials to signal that halting further depreciation is a key macroeconomic priority.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，卢比兑美元汇率跌至超过 96 的历史低点，促使官员们表示，停止进一步贬值是关键的宏观经济优先事项。</p>
</div><p>India's central bank has already poured billions of dollars to stabilise the currency, curbed speculative trading and offered a special credit line to oil importers to ease dollar demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度央行已经投入数十亿美元来稳定货币，限制投机交易，并向石油进口商提供特别信贷额度以缓解对美元的需求。</p>
</div><p>Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also urged voluntary austerity measures to rein in dollar-guzzling imports, including cutting down on gold buying and foreign travel for a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪还呼吁自愿节约措施，以遏制对美元的需求，包括减少黄金购买和一年内的海外旅行。</p>
</div><p>But the pressure persists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但压力依然存在。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The whole system has been disturbed,&#34; said Dilip Parmar of stockbroker HDFC Securities, citing heavy foreign investor outflows, weaker growth prospects and elevated crude prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HDFC 证券的股票经纪人迪利普·帕尔马尔表示：“整个系统都受到干扰”，他提到外资大量流出、增长前景疲软和高企的原油价格。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That is the basic problem which you're seeing replicated in the fall of the rupee,&#34; he said, noting that it was ultimately &#34;a function of demand and supply&#34; with dollar demand being higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这就是你看到卢比贬值的基本问题，” 他说，并指出这最终是 “供需关系” 的结果，美元需求更高。</p>
</div><p>The rupee's slide comes as India faces a widening current account deficit driven by costly energy imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卢比的贬值正值印度面临因高昂能源进口而导致的经常账户赤字扩大。</p>
</div><p>The gap is likely to be over two percent of GDP this fiscal year, more than double last year's level and potentially the widest since 2012–13, according to Bank of America Securities estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据美银证券的估计，预计本财年的赤字将超过 GDP 的 2%，是去年的两倍，可能是自 2012-13 年以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>- Widening deficit -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 赤字扩大 -</p>
</div><p>At the same time, foreign investors have dumped more than $20 billion in Indian stocks since the start of the Mideast conflict, the fastest pace on record, while dollar inflows have slowed, opening the possibility of a balance-of-payments gap as large as $67–88 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，自中东冲突开始以来，外国投资者已抛售超过 200 亿美元的印度股票，创下历史最快的速度，而美元流入放缓，可能导致高达 670 亿至 880 亿美元的国际收支缺口。</p>
</div><p>The 2027 fiscal year &#34;will be our third year of a balance-of-payment deficit, which is certainly unusual,&#34; economist Dhiraj Nim of ANZ Research told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家 Dhiraj Nim 对法新社表示：“2027 财年将是我们第三年出现国际收支赤字，这显然是不寻常的。”</p>
</div><p>This strain has weighed on the rupee, prompting the central bank to defend it by burning through foreign exchange reserves -- now at around $697 billion, down from over $720 billion before the Middle East war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种压力对卢比造成了负担，促使央行通过消耗外汇储备来捍卫卢比——目前约为 6970 亿美元，低于中东战争前的 7200 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>While still covering about 11 months of imports, the decline underscores the strain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管仍能覆盖约 11 个月的进口，但下降突显了压力。</p>
</div><p>A weaker rupee is rippling through the domestic economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卢比贬值正在影响国内经济。</p>
</div><p>Manufacturers and food processors, many dependent on imported raw materials priced in dollars, are seeing costs surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多依赖以美元计价的进口原材料的制造商和食品加工商，成本正在飙升。</p>
</div><p>Smaller firms often lack the ability to hedge currency risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小型企业通常缺乏对冲货币风险的能力。</p>
</div><p>In Kerala's cashew industry, which mostly imports raw nuts from Africa, the impact has been acute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在喀拉拉邦的腰果产业中，主要从非洲进口原料，影响尤为明显。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Imports have become far more expensive for the local market,&#34; said Rajmohan Pillai, who runs a cashew firm, adding buyers can now afford only about 90 percent of last year's volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经营腰果公司的拉杰莫汉·皮莱表示：“进口对当地市场变得更加昂贵，” 他补充说，买家现在只能负担去年的约 90% 的数量。</p>
</div><p>He estimates more than 80 percent of processing units have shut in recent years, with rupee volatility a contributing factor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他估计，近年来超过 80% 的加工单位已关闭，卢比波动是一个促成因素。</p>
</div><p>- 'Last straw' -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- '最后一根稻草' -</p>
</div><p>India's currency decline has also hit students looking to study abroad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度货币贬值也影响了希望出国留学的学生。</p>
</div><p>Education consultants say studying in the United States now costs more than one million rupees ($10,450) extra compared with a year ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>教育顾问表示，与一年前相比，在美国的学习费用现在增加了超过一百万卢比（10,450 美元）。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is the last straw,&#34; said Meghna Sen, a 17-year-old aspiring psychology student.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这就是最后一根稻草，” 17 岁的心理学专业志愿者梅赫娜·森说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Now we have to track (the rupee) movement to check how much we need for our grocery budgets.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“现在我们必须跟踪（卢比）走势，以检查我们需要多少预算来购买杂货。”</p>
</div><p>The depreciation has punctured India's ambition to become the world's third-largest economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贬值打击了印度成为全球第三大经济体的雄心。</p>
</div><p>Modi, who once criticised his predecessors over currency weakness, has seen India's global economic ranking dented because GDP comparisons are measured in dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曾批评前任货币疲软的莫迪，因 GDP 比较以美元计价而看到印度的全球经济排名受到影响。</p>
</div><p>The country has slipped behind the United Kingdom to the sixth place according to IMF data, largely due to the rupee's fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国际货币基金组织的数据，印度已滑落至第六位，主要是由于卢比贬值。</p>
</div><p>Nomura analysts warn more drastic measures may be on the anvil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村分析师警告，可能会采取更激进的措施。</p>
</div><p>These include possible fuel price hikes, tighter controls on overseas remittances and steps to attract dollar deposits from non-resident Indians -- a playbook used in past crises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些措施包括可能的燃油价格上涨、对海外汇款的更严格控制，以及吸引非居民印度人的美元存款的措施——这是过去危机中使用的应对方案。</p>
</div><p>Still, economists caution that intervention can only smooth volatility, not reverse underlying pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，经济学家警告说，干预只能平滑波动，而无法逆转潜在压力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Fundamental factors&#34; remain to be resolved, Nim said, adding &#34;I would not even rule out an interest rate hike which squarely targets future inflation&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“基本因素” 仍需解决，尼姆说，并补充道：“我甚至不排除针对未来通胀的加息。”</p>
</div><p>The Reserve Bank of India knows what its options are, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，印度储备银行知道自己的选择。</p>
</div><p>&#34;All that remains is to see what it decides to choose.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“剩下的就是看看它决定选择什么。”</p>
</div><p>asv/abh/sjc/abs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>asv/abh/sjc/abs</p>
</div>

印度紧急采取措施以稳定卢比，因油价冲击影响加剧