<p>投资者们热切追逐科技和人工智能股票的热潮，同时广泛承认，收益率上升威胁着股市的稳定。</p>
<p>彭博新闻对美国、亚洲和欧洲 32 位投资经理的采访评估显示，整体看法非常乐观，包括来自富国银行投资研究所、阿穆迪和 BMO 全球资产管理公司的观点。投资者对股票特别乐观，80% 的人预计在未来三到六个月内，股票将表现优于商品或债券等其他资产类别。</p>
<p>大约一半的买方专业人士的首选投资是那些在标准普尔 500 指数创下七周记录性上涨的巨型科技和人工智能股票。</p>
<p>“我们继续看到一些超大规模公司的机会，这些公司引领了人工智能的建设，并且现在开始在投资上获得实质回报，” 巴黎 Tikehau 资本市场策略负责人 Raphael Thuin 表示。</p>
<p>这种乐观情绪显而易见，科技重型指数如纳斯达克 100 和费城半导体指数（SOX）在从伊朗战争低点的急剧反弹中屡创新高。人工智能作为关键投资主题的回归以及强劲的盈利增长推动了这种狂热，投资者们将对公司过度支出的担忧抛在脑后。</p>
<p>尽管充满热情，但担忧的原因并不难找。深入观察指数层面的变动显示，这一反弹极为集中，并且显示出过热的迹象。</p>
<p>仅有四只股票就占据了 2026 年标准普尔 500 指数涨幅的一半以上。同时，SOX 目前的交易市盈率超过 25 倍，远高于过去十年的平均水平 19 倍。市场定位变得更加拥挤，技术信号显示超买水平。这使得当前的局势变得更加脆弱。</p>
<p>要打破这一反弹需要什么？大多数受访投资者指出，30 年期美国国债收益率持续高于 5%——这一水平目前已经在交易中。Indosuez 财富管理公司的首席投资官 Alexandre Drabowicz 称这是股票的 “危险区”。</p>
<p>由于霍尔木兹海峡的僵局持续，关于收益率的担忧正在上升，这增加了高油价传导至通胀并损害经济的风险。5 月 15 日，全球政府债券的抛售使得长期美国国债收益率接近 2023 年的峰值。</p>
<p>长期利率 “处于人工智能资本支出和私人信贷成本的交叉点，” Carmignac 投资委员会的 Kevin Thozet 表示。这些利率影响政府赤字的融资，他指出它们可能对消费者财富产生 “不利影响”。</p>
<p>滞涨和鹰派中央银行被 32 位投资者中的许多人视为市场未能正确定价的关键风险。这些回应强调了债券市场在股票投资者的边缘视野中作为对股市的主要威胁。</p>
<p>“尽管股票在乐观的眼光中看待，但利率仍在上升，” Natixis 财富管理公司的首席投资官 Benoit Peloille 表示。他警告称，如果收益率继续上升，可能会出现 “现实检查”。</p>
<p>对滞涨和加息的担忧仅次于对企业盈利过度乐观的恐惧，这被认为是第一个被低估的风险。对盈利增长的信心一直是这次反弹的基石，得益于异常强劲的财报季。</p>
<p>在美国，2026 年第一季度标准普尔 500 成分股的每股收益同比增长超过 27%，是分析师预期的两倍。这是自 2004 年以来，除了从重大冲击中恢复外，最强劲的增长率。</p>
<p>欧洲的业绩也超出了预期，尽管年增长率较为温和，为 7.5%。在这两个地区，强劲的表现大幅提高了 2026 年剩余时间的标准，任何失误都可能受到惩罚。</p>
<p>“如果盈利出现下滑，更多的投资者会考虑出售股票，因为这正是他们投资理论的基石，” 富国银行投资研究所全球股票和实物资产负责人 Sameer Samana 表示。</p>
<p>反弹在 5 月 15 日稍作喘息，但在此之前，标准普尔 500 和纳斯达克 100 在这一周都创下了新的历史高点。这种表现使得股票多头对未来几个月最佳回报的信心得以维持。</p>
<p>“股票全天候，” BMO 的首席投资官 Sadiq Adatia 表示。“我认为这根本没有悬念。” 彭博社</p>

纳斯达克 100 指数

标普 500 指数

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

<p>投资者对科技和人工智能股票持乐观态度，80% 的人预计它们将在未来 3-6 个月内表现优于其他资产。然而，收益率上升构成威胁，特别是如果 30 年期美国国债收益率保持在 5% 以上。对滞胀和企业盈利过度乐观的担忧可能导致市场修正。尽管标普 500 和纳斯达克 100 近期创下新高，但反弹主要集中在少数股票上，令人担忧市场可能过热</p>

<p>INVESTORS are fervently chasing the hot rally in tech and AI stocks while widely acknowledging that rising yields threaten to knock equities off course.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者们热切追逐科技和人工智能股票的热潮，同时广泛承认，收益率上升威胁着股市的稳定。</p>
</div><p>The assessments from Bloomberg News interviews with 32 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe, including at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Amundi and BMO Global Asset Management, were overwhelmingly bullish. Investors are particularly upbeat about equities, with 80 per cent expecting them to outperform other asset classes such as commodities or bonds over the next three to six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博新闻对美国、亚洲和欧洲 32 位投资经理的采访评估显示，整体看法非常乐观，包括来自富国银行投资研究所、阿穆迪和 BMO 全球资产管理公司的观点。投资者对股票特别乐观，80% 的人预计在未来三到六个月内，股票将表现优于商品或债券等其他资产类别。</p>
</div><p>The top investment choice for about half of these buy-side professionals is the megacap tech and artificial intelligence stocks at the heart of a seven-week, record-setting surge in the S&amp;P 500 Index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大约一半的买方专业人士的首选投资是那些在标准普尔 500 指数创下七周记录性上涨的巨型科技和人工智能股票。</p>
</div><p>“We continue to see opportunities in some of the hyperscalers, which have led the AI build-out and are now beginning to generate tangible returns eaon their investments,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital market strategies at Tikehau in Paris.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们继续看到一些超大规模公司的机会，这些公司引领了人工智能的建设，并且现在开始在投资上获得实质回报，” 巴黎 Tikehau 资本市场策略负责人 Raphael Thuin 表示。</p>
</div><p>The bullishness is evident as tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, hit repeated records in a sharp rebound from their Iran-war lows. The return of AI as a key investment thesis and powerful earnings growth have fuelled the frenzy, with investors setting aside worries about companies overspending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种乐观情绪显而易见，科技重型指数如纳斯达克 100 和费城半导体指数（SOX）在从伊朗战争低点的急剧反弹中屡创新高。人工智能作为关键投资主题的回归以及强劲的盈利增长推动了这种狂热，投资者们将对公司过度支出的担忧抛在脑后。</p>
</div><p>For all the exuberance, causes for concern are not hard to find. A look beneath the index-level moves shows the rally is extremely concentrated and displays signs of overheating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管充满热情，但担忧的原因并不难找。深入观察指数层面的变动显示，这一反弹极为集中，并且显示出过热的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Just four stocks are responsible for more than half of the S&amp;P 500’s gains in 2026. Meanwhile, the SOX currently trades at more than 25 times forward earnings, well above its average of 19 over the past decade. Positioning has turned far more crowded and technical signals are flashing overbought levels. That makes the set-up a lot more fragile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅有四只股票就占据了 2026 年标准普尔 500 指数涨幅的一半以上。同时，SOX 目前的交易市盈率超过 25 倍，远高于过去十年的平均水平 19 倍。市场定位变得更加拥挤，技术信号显示超买水平。这使得当前的局势变得更加脆弱。</p>
</div><p>What would it take to break this rally? Most investors interviewed pointed to the yield on 30-year US Treasuries holding sustainably above 5 per cent – the level where it is already trading. Alexandre Drabowicz, chief investment officer at Indosuez Wealth Management, called that the “danger zone” for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要打破这一反弹需要什么？大多数受访投资者指出，30 年期美国国债收益率持续高于 5%——这一水平目前已经在交易中。Indosuez 财富管理公司的首席投资官 Alexandre Drabowicz 称这是股票的 “危险区”。</p>
</div><p>Apprehension about yields is creeping higher as the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz persists, increasing the risk of elevated oil prices feeding into inflation and harming the economy. On Friday (May 15), a global rout in government bonds sent longer-dated US Treasury yields to nearly their 2023 peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于霍尔木兹海峡的僵局持续，关于收益率的担忧正在上升，这增加了高油价传导至通胀并损害经济的风险。5 月 15 日，全球政府债券的抛售使得长期美国国债收益率接近 2023 年的峰值。</p>
</div><p>Long-term interest rates “sit at the crossroads of the cost of capital for AI capex and private credit,” said Kevin Thozet, from the investment committee at Carmignac. They affect the financing of government deficits and he noted their potentially “adverse impact” on consumer wealth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期利率 “处于人工智能资本支出和私人信贷成本的交叉点，” Carmignac 投资委员会的 Kevin Thozet 表示。这些利率影响政府赤字的融资，他指出它们可能对消费者财富产生 “不利影响”。</p>
</div><p>Stagflation and hawkish central banks were cited by many of the 32 investors as key risks the market is failing to price properly. Those responses underscore how the bond market looms large in stock investors’ peripheral vision as the main threat to equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滞涨和鹰派中央银行被 32 位投资者中的许多人视为市场未能正确定价的关键风险。这些回应强调了债券市场在股票投资者的边缘视野中作为对股市的主要威胁。</p>
</div><p>“While equities are seeing life through rose‑tinted glasses, rates continue to rise,” said Benoit Peloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management. He warned that a “reality check” could follow if yields keep climbing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“尽管股票在乐观的眼光中看待，但利率仍在上升，” Natixis 财富管理公司的首席投资官 Benoit Peloille 表示。他警告称，如果收益率继续上升，可能会出现 “现实检查”。</p>
</div><p>Worries over stagflation and rate hikes were topped only by the fear that over-optimism about corporate earnings will come back to bite investors, identified as the No 1 underpriced risk. Confidence around growing profits has been a cornerstone of this rally, helped along by an exceptionally strong reporting season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对滞涨和加息的担忧仅次于对企业盈利过度乐观的恐惧，这被认为是第一个被低估的风险。对盈利增长的信心一直是这次反弹的基石，得益于异常强劲的财报季。</p>
</div><p>In the US, earnings per share for S&amp;P 500 members have climbed more than 27 per cent in the first quarter in 2026 from a year earlier, more than double analyst expectations. It’s the strongest growth rate since 2004, outside of recoveries from major shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国，2026 年第一季度标准普尔 500 成分股的每股收益同比增长超过 27%，是分析师预期的两倍。这是自 2004 年以来，除了从重大冲击中恢复外，最强劲的增长率。</p>
</div><p>European results have also surpassed projections, albeit with a more modest 7.5 per cent annual improvement. In both regions, the strong performance has raised the bar significantly for the rest of 2026, and any missteps will likely be punished.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲的业绩也超出了预期，尽管年增长率较为温和，为 7.5%。在这两个地区，强劲的表现大幅提高了 2026 年剩余时间的标准，任何失误都可能受到惩罚。</p>
</div><p>“If earnings were to hit an air pocket, a lot more investors would consider selling equities, since it’s the bedrock of their investment thesis,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果盈利出现下滑，更多的投资者会考虑出售股票，因为这正是他们投资理论的基石，” 富国银行投资研究所全球股票和实物资产负责人 Sameer Samana 表示。</p>
</div><p>The rally took a breather on May 15, but not before the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both charted fresh all-time highs during the week. It is the type of performance that sustains faith among stock bulls about where the best returns in coming months lie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反弹在 5 月 15 日稍作喘息，但在此之前，标准普尔 500 和纳斯达克 100 在这一周都创下了新的历史高点。这种表现使得股票多头对未来几个月最佳回报的信心得以维持。</p>
</div><p>“Equities all day,” said Sadiq Adatia, chief investment officer at BMO. “I don’t think it’s even close.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“股票全天候，” BMO 的首席投资官 Sadiq Adatia 表示。“我认为这根本没有悬念。” 彭博社</p>
</div>

Bond sell-off threatens to knock AI stock frenzy off course

- 投资者追逐科技和人工智能股票的热潮，80% 预期其表现优于其他资产。  
- 尽管乐观，但超额集中和利率上升令市场脆弱，尤其是 30 年期国债收益率的持续上升。  
- 企业盈利强劲是当前上涨的基础，第一季度标普 500 成分股每股盈利增长超过 27%。

债券抛售可能会使人工智能股票的狂热偏离正轨