<p>比尔·彼得斯</p>
<p>沃尔玛表示，当汽油价格达到每加仑 4.50 到 5 美元时，顾客开始削减开支。</p>
<p>沃尔玛将在周四公布季度业绩，这一周对零售业的财报至关重要。</p>
<p>随着伊朗战争在三月份推动汽油价格上涨，沃尔玛高管告诉瑞银分析师，当汽油价格达到每加仑 3.50 到 4 美元时，消费者的态度开始恶化。在 4 到 4.50 美元左右，购物者开始进行替代性购买。在 4.50 到 5 美元时，他们开始削减开支。</p>
<p>分析师传达，超过 5 美元将代表需求的 “实质性下降”。</p>
<p>随着零售风向标沃尔玛（WMT）将在周四公布业绩，我们将更清楚地看到需求的表现。</p>
<p>根据 AAA 的数据，截至周五，全国平均汽油价格约为每加仑 4.53 美元。一些零售商表示，他们对更高的汽油价格并不担心，尽管高昂的燃料成本推高了运输和其他供应的成本。然而，消费者的态度却变得更加阴郁，尽管分析师指出，他们在经历自疫情以来最大的价格冲击时仍在继续消费。</p>
<p>沃尔玛与塔吉特（TGT）、家得宝（HD）以及其他一系列零售商一起在本周报告季度业绩。综合来看，这些结果将是美国企业对消费者购物模式变化的最深入观察——或者没有变化——因为市场大多对战争的影响置之不理。</p>
<p>大型零售商有更多资源来吸收这些冲击并保持价格较低。瑞银分析师迈克尔·拉瑟在周三的一份报告中表示，汽油价格上涨对沃尔玛第一季度业绩的影响可能有限。</p>
<p>此外，他们表示，较高的汽油价格可能为沃尔玛提供了捕捉增量业务的机会——特别是在富裕客户和其大型杂货业务中。分析师指出，该公司在应对较高汽油价格的影响方面比过去更具能力。</p>
<p>瑞银分析师表示：“考虑到沃尔玛最近在高收入消费者中的渗透，其整体客户群对燃料价格上涨的敏感度可能较低。”</p>
<p>他们继续说道：“此外，其电子商务业务的扩展为保留那些在过去燃料价格冲击中通常流失的消费者提供了机会，因为这些消费者不愿意开车去商店。”</p>
<p>瑞银分析师估计，杂货连锁店面临的成本至少高出 3% 到 4%——许多商家以较少的价格上涨来转嫁这些成本，因为他们试图消化额外的费用，并希望伊朗冲突能迅速结束。随着战争的持续，承受这些更高的费用将变得更加困难。</p>
<p>尽管如此，瑞穗证券分析师大卫·贝林杰在业绩公布前对沃尔玛持更谨慎的态度。他表示，低收入购物者的状况将成为焦点。</p>
<p>贝林杰表示，沃尔玛和塔吉特（周三报告业绩）都可能坚持其全年展望，这在第一季度业绩中是典型的。然而，他指出，保持这些预测 “可能被解读为对全年和整体消费的更谨慎立场。”</p>
<p>“总的来说，我们对这两份财报采取了一种谨慎的态度，” 他说。</p>
<p>塔吉特在其新任首席执行官迈克尔·菲德尔克上任之际发布财报。该零售商正试图扭转局面，重新发现其风格，因为本十年内的通货膨胀迫使消费者转向其他地方。</p>
<p>但 TD Cowen 分析师表示，考虑到塔吉特的股票今年迄今上涨了 24%，预期很高。他们表示，家居用品、服装以及电子产品和家电等商品的销售——这些商品占该零售商销售组合的约一半——对加速这一转变至关重要。</p>
<p>与此同时，家得宝和 Lowe's（LOW）也将在本周报告业绩，华尔街正为可能的房地产市场回暖做好准备。一些分析师认为，家居改善零售商可能会获得潜在收益，因为消费者只能推迟修缮老旧房屋和更换家具及家电的时间有限。在寻找优惠的过程中，罗斯商店（ROST）、TJX（TJX）和 BJ's Wholesale Club（BJ）也将发布业绩。</p>
<p>此外，孩之宝（HAS）、城市 Outfitters（URBN）、el.f. Beauty（ELF）、拉尔夫·劳伦（RL）以及 Hoka 和 Ugg 制造商 Deckers Outdoor（DECK）也将在本周发布业绩。</p>
<p>最近几个月，服装价格上涨，因为来自战争的更高油价（CL00）转化为聚酯等材料的更高成本，以及间接影响棉花。惠而浦（WHR）制造洗衣机和冰箱等家电，称其需求的回落类似于近二十年前发生的金融危机。</p>
<p>在最近几周，生产许多消费基础产品的公司（如宝洁（PG））的高管表示，一些基本家庭产品的价格可能会上涨，因为公司消化了更高的油价和其他材料成本，并试图通过新颖的产品吸引消费者。然而，经济学家对消费者在预算中能承受多少更高价格表示担忧。</p>
<p>Edgewell Personal Care（EPC）的首席执行官罗德·利特尔——该公司生产 Schick 剃须刀和 Edge 剃须膏等个人护理产品——告诉 MarketWatch，战争推高了其用于剃须刀片的钢材和铝制喷雾罐的成本。他指出，钢材和铝制品的进口也会被征收关税，而用于防晒霜和美容产品的塑料瓶中石油衍生材料的成本也上涨了。</p>
<p>利特尔补充说，Edgewell 用于其刀片的钢材仅来自芬兰和日本。他表示，这些产品的供应链在其他地方并不存在。</p>
<p>“我们在过去两年中没有提高任何价格——甚至更长时间，” 他说，关于在美国提高公司剃须和防晒产品的价格。然而，首席执行官补充说，“现在我们必须把 [价格上涨] 放在桌面上。”</p>
<p>-比尔·彼得斯</p>
<p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（结束）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>05-17-26 1100ET</p>

沃尔玛

塔吉特

家得宝

<p>沃尔玛和塔吉特即将公布季度财报，因伊朗战争导致的油价上涨影响了消费者的消费习惯。分析师指出，当油价超过 4.50 美元时，消费支出往往会显著下降。虽然沃尔玛可能因吸引更富裕的顾客而从高油价中受益，但低收入消费者的担忧依然存在。塔吉特的新任首席执行官面临重振品牌的挑战。其他零售商，包括家得宝和各种服装品牌，也将公布财报，反映出通货膨胀和消费者行为变化的更广泛影响</p>

<p>By Bill Peters</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比尔·彼得斯</p>
</div><p>Walmart has said that customers start to cut spending when gas prices hit $4.50 to $5 a gallon</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛表示，当汽油价格达到每加仑 4.50 到 5 美元时，顾客开始削减开支。</p>
</div><p>Walmart reports quarterly results on Thursday, in a big week for retail earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛将在周四公布季度业绩，这一周对零售业的财报至关重要。</p>
</div><p>As the Iran war began driving gas prices higher in March, Walmart executives told UBS analysts that consumers' attitudes start to sour when gas prices hit $3.50 to $4 a gallon. At around $4 to $4.50, shoppers start making substitute purchases. At $4.50 to $5, they cut spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着伊朗战争在三月份推动汽油价格上涨，沃尔玛高管告诉瑞银分析师，当汽油价格达到每加仑 3.50 到 4 美元时，消费者的态度开始恶化。在 4 到 4.50 美元左右，购物者开始进行替代性购买。在 4.50 到 5 美元时，他们开始削减开支。</p>
</div><p>Above $5, the analysts relayed, would represent a &#34;material drawback&#34; in demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师传达，超过 5 美元将代表需求的 “实质性下降”。</p>
</div><p>With the retail bellwether's (WMT) earnings due on Thursday, we'll see more clearly how demand has held up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着零售风向标沃尔玛（WMT）将在周四公布业绩，我们将更清楚地看到需求的表现。</p>
</div><p>As of Friday, the nation's average gas price sat at around $4.53 a gallon, according to AAA. Some retailers have said they're not worried about higher gas prices, even as elevated fuel costs drive up costs for shipping and other supplies. Consumers, though, have adopted a gloomier attitude, even as analysts note that they continue to spend despite the biggest price shocks seen since the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 AAA 的数据，截至周五，全国平均汽油价格约为每加仑 4.53 美元。一些零售商表示，他们对更高的汽油价格并不担心，尽管高昂的燃料成本推高了运输和其他供应的成本。然而，消费者的态度却变得更加阴郁，尽管分析师指出，他们在经历自疫情以来最大的价格冲击时仍在继续消费。</p>
</div><p>Walmart joins Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD) and an array of other retailers in reporting quarterly earnings this week. Taken together, the results will represent the deepest look yet from corporate America at how consumer shopping patterns have changed - or not - as markets mostly shrug off the war's impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛与塔吉特（TGT）、家得宝（HD）以及其他一系列零售商一起在本周报告季度业绩。综合来看，这些结果将是美国企业对消费者购物模式变化的最深入观察——或者没有变化——因为市场大多对战争的影响置之不理。</p>
</div><p>Major retailers have more resources to absorb those shocks and keep prices lower. The UBS analysts, led by Michael Lasser, said in a note on Wednesday that the impact of higher gas prices on Walmart's first-quarter results was likely limited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型零售商有更多资源来吸收这些冲击并保持价格较低。瑞银分析师迈克尔·拉瑟在周三的一份报告中表示，汽油价格上涨对沃尔玛第一季度业绩的影响可能有限。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, they said, higher gas prices likely represented an opportunity for the chain to capture incremental business - particularly among wealthier customers and in its large grocery business. The analysts noted that the company is also better able to handle the effects of higher gas prices than it was in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，他们表示，较高的汽油价格可能为沃尔玛提供了捕捉增量业务的机会——特别是在富裕客户和其大型杂货业务中。分析师指出，该公司在应对较高汽油价格的影响方面比过去更具能力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Given the inroads [Walmart] has made in penetrating high-income consumers of late, its overall customer base is likely less sensitive to increases in fuel prices,&#34; the UBS analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银分析师表示：“考虑到沃尔玛最近在高收入消费者中的渗透，其整体客户群对燃料价格上涨的敏感度可能较低。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;Plus, the buildout of its [e-commerce] business provides an opportunity to retain business it has typically lost in past fuel price shocks from consumers who are reluctant to drive to stores,&#34; they continued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们继续说道：“此外，其电子商务业务的扩展为保留那些在过去燃料价格冲击中通常流失的消费者提供了机会，因为这些消费者不愿意开车去商店。”</p>
</div><p>The UBS analysts estimated that grocery chains were facing costs that were at least 3% to 4% higher - with many passing on a bit less than that in the form of price increases, as they try to eat the extra costs and hope for a quick end to the Iran conflict. Stomaching those higher expenses will get more difficult the longer the war goes on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银分析师估计，杂货连锁店面临的成本至少高出 3% 到 4%——许多商家以较少的价格上涨来转嫁这些成本，因为他们试图消化额外的费用，并希望伊朗冲突能迅速结束。随着战争的持续，承受这些更高的费用将变得更加困难。</p>
</div><p>Still, Mizuho analyst David Bellinger was more cautious on Walmart heading into the results. The state of lower-income shoppers, he said, would be in focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，瑞穗证券分析师大卫·贝林杰在业绩公布前对沃尔玛持更谨慎的态度。他表示，低收入购物者的状况将成为焦点。</p>
</div><p>Bellinger said both Walmart and Target, which reports earnings on Wednesday, are likely to stick with their full-year outlooks, which would be typical of first-quarter results. However, he noted that holding on to those forecasts &#34;could be interpreted as more of a cautious stance on the balance of the year and spending at large.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贝林杰表示，沃尔玛和塔吉特（周三报告业绩）都可能坚持其全年展望，这在第一季度业绩中是典型的。然而，他指出，保持这些预测 “可能被解读为对全年和整体消费的更谨慎立场。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;All in, we take somewhat of a prudent approach into both prints,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“总的来说，我们对这两份财报采取了一种谨慎的态度，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>Target reports as its new CEO, Michael Fiddelke, settles into the job. The retailer is trying to turn itself around and rediscover its sense of style, after inflation over this decade forced consumers elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塔吉特在其新任首席执行官迈克尔·菲德尔克上任之际发布财报。该零售商正试图扭转局面，重新发现其风格，因为本十年内的通货膨胀迫使消费者转向其他地方。</p>
</div><p>But TD Cowen analysts said that with Target's stock up 24% so far this year, expectations are high. They said sales of home goods, clothes, and things like electronics and appliances - items that make up around half of the retailer's sales mix - would be crucial to accelerating that turnaround.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 TD Cowen 分析师表示，考虑到塔吉特的股票今年迄今上涨了 24%，预期很高。他们表示，家居用品、服装以及电子产品和家电等商品的销售——这些商品占该零售商销售组合的约一半——对加速这一转变至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Home Depot and Lowe's (LOW) also report this week, as Wall Street braces for the impact of a possible thaw in the housing market. Some analysts see potential gains for home-improvement retailers, since consumers can only put off repairing aging homes and replacing furniture and appliances for so long. And amid the hunt for deals, Ross Stores (ROST), TJX (TJX) and BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) also report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，家得宝和 Lowe's（LOW）也将在本周报告业绩，华尔街正为可能的房地产市场回暖做好准备。一些分析师认为，家居改善零售商可能会获得潜在收益，因为消费者只能推迟修缮老旧房屋和更换家具及家电的时间有限。在寻找优惠的过程中，罗斯商店（ROST）、TJX（TJX）和 BJ's Wholesale Club（BJ）也将发布业绩。</p>
</div><p>Elsewhere, Hasbro (HAS), Urban Outfitters (URBN), el.f. Beauty (ELF), Ralph Lauren (RL), and Hoka and Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK) report results during the week as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，孩之宝（HAS）、城市 Outfitters（URBN）、el.f. Beauty（ELF）、拉尔夫·劳伦（RL）以及 Hoka 和 Ugg 制造商 Deckers Outdoor（DECK）也将在本周发布业绩。</p>
</div><p>Prices for clothing have risen in recent months, as higher oil prices (CL00) from the war translate to higher costs for materials like polyester and, indirectly, cotton. Whirlpool (WHR), which makes appliances like washing machines and refrigerators, likened its own pullback in demand to the financial crisis that occurred nearly two decades ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近几个月，服装价格上涨，因为来自战争的更高油价（CL00）转化为聚酯等材料的更高成本，以及间接影响棉花。惠而浦（WHR）制造洗衣机和冰箱等家电，称其需求的回落类似于近二十年前发生的金融危机。</p>
</div><p>In recent weeks, executives at some of the companies that make a lot of consumer basics, like Procter &amp; Gamble (PG), have said prices on some basic household products could move higher, as companies digest higher costs for oil and other materials and try to attract shoppers with new, more innovative products. However, economists have been concerned about how much more room consumers have in their budgets for higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近几周，生产许多消费基础产品的公司（如宝洁（PG））的高管表示，一些基本家庭产品的价格可能会上涨，因为公司消化了更高的油价和其他材料成本，并试图通过新颖的产品吸引消费者。然而，经济学家对消费者在预算中能承受多少更高价格表示担忧。</p>
</div><p>Rod Little, CEO of Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) - the company that makes Schick razors and Edge shaving gel, among other personal products - told MarketWatch that the war had pushed costs higher for steel, which it uses for razor blades, and aluminum products like aerosol spray cans. Steel and aluminum imports also get tariffed, he noted, while costs for oil-derived materials used in plastic bottles for sunscreen and grooming products had also risen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Edgewell Personal Care（EPC）的首席执行官罗德·利特尔——该公司生产 Schick 剃须刀和 Edge 剃须膏等个人护理产品——告诉 MarketWatch，战争推高了其用于剃须刀片的钢材和铝制喷雾罐的成本。他指出，钢材和铝制品的进口也会被征收关税，而用于防晒霜和美容产品的塑料瓶中石油衍生材料的成本也上涨了。</p>
</div><p>Little added that the steel Edgewell uses for its blades comes only from Finland and Japan. The supply chain for those products, he said, doesn't exist anywhere else.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利特尔补充说，Edgewell 用于其刀片的钢材仅来自芬兰和日本。他表示，这些产品的供应链在其他地方并不存在。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We've not taken any pricing in the last two years - even longer than that,&#34; he said about raising prices for company's shaving and sunscreen products in the U.S. The CEO added, however, that &#34;it's a requirement that we put [price increases] on the table now.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们在过去两年中没有提高任何价格——甚至更长时间，” 他说，关于在美国提高公司剃须和防晒产品的价格。然而，首席执行官补充说，“现在我们必须把 [价格上涨] 放在桌面上。”</p>
</div><p>-Bill Peters</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-比尔·彼得斯</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（结束）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>05-17-26 1100ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-17-26 1100ET</p>
</div>

Walmart and Target are about to show just how much shopping habits have changed due to the Iran war

- 沃尔玛表示，加油价格达到 $4.50 以后消费者开始缩减开支。  
- 当前全国平均油价约为 $4.53，一些零售商对油价上涨并不担忧。  
- 分析师指出，高收入客户可能会利用油价上涨机会，提升购物需求。

沃尔玛和塔吉特即将揭示伊朗战争对购物习惯的巨大影响