<ul>
<li>日本国债的熊市陡峭化信号显示出财政和通胀担忧上升</li>
<li>能源冲击风险加剧日本的经常账户前景</li>
<li>日本央行外汇干预风险加剧长期国债的压力</li>
<li>市场现在预计美联储今年将加息 14 个基点</li>
</ul>
<h2>债券警惕者重返日本？</h2>
<p>日本的债券市场发出了越来越令人不安的信号，表明全球能源市场长期中断所带来的风险，长期收益率飙升和日元再次走弱表明市场对政策制定者能否在不最终牺牲货币或债券市场的情况下控制后果的信心正在减弱。</p>
<p>这种紧张局势在周一再次显现，报道称政府可能编制另一份补充预算，以缓解中东冲突带来的经济冲击，这可能需要在投资者已经要求大幅提高持有长期国债的补偿时，进行新的债务发行。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131032-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131032-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>10 年期日本国债收益率攀升至 1996 年以来的最高水平，而 20 年和 30 年期收益率在另一轮熊市陡峭化中继续大幅上升。尽管曲线远端的交易条件往往变得稀薄且不连贯，夸大了个别波动的幅度，但投资者对日益加剧的通胀、经济和财政担忧的更广泛信号正变得越来越难以忽视。</p>
<p>重要的是，尽管美国短期收益率仍然是美元/日元的主要驱动因素，尤其是市场现在预计今年将加息约 14 个基点，但日本的国内背景在理解当局为何在抵御进一步日元贬值的能力上显得越来越受限时，正变得越来越重要。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131224-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131224-2.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>为了明确，JGB 的波动并不反映市场对日本央行激进加息的预期。如果是那样，曲线可能会因短期收益率上升而变得平坦或扭曲。相反，掉期交易者似乎更担心日本央行落后于形势，加上财政和经济风险加剧。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131310-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131310-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Bloomberg</p>
<h2>日本的能源脆弱性暴露</h2>
<p>在这种环境下，日本尤其脆弱，因为其几乎完全依赖进口能源。持续高企的油气价格不仅威胁到进一步抬高通胀，还可能削弱日本的经常账户状况，因为更多资金流向海外以支付能源进口。</p>
<p>简单来说，如果日本需要出售更多日元以购买外币用于能源采购，而出口收入未能跟上，这可能在错误的时机对货币施加进一步的下行压力。</p>
<h2>捍卫日元还是限制收益率？</h2>
<p>本月早些时候在怀疑干预活动后的市场反应也可能为政策制定者提供了重要警示。一旦当局采取措施减缓美元/日元的上涨压力，压力立即转移到 JGB 曲线的后端，长期收益率飙升。压力并没有消失，而是找到了另一个出口。</p>
<p>这使得日本政策制定者面临越来越困难的平衡。允许收益率上升，债务可持续性担忧加剧。但如果日本央行试图通过加大市场操作，包括在波动性进一步上升时进行非计划或紧急的债券购买，来抑制长期债券的波动，压力释放阀可能反而会通过更弱的日元来实现。</p>
<h2>美元/日元朝着 160 迈进</h2>
<p>如果日本央行宣布大规模购买 JGB，可能会导致美元/日元大幅上涨，可能与年初至今的高点 160.73 相撞，如果突破，将与 2024 年设定的数十年高点 161.95 相遇。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131413-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131413-4.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>目前，该货币对正在测试 159.00 的次要阻力，继续在本月早些时候日本央行代表政府进行干预活动时设定的低点上升。价格现在高于每个关键的中长期移动平均线，早些时候已经突破 50 日均线。突破 159.00 将增加重新测试年初至今高点的可能性。</p>
<p>在当前水平下，值得关注的下行支撑区包括 50 日均线、157.92 的突破区，以及 100 日均线。</p>
<p>在当前环境下，动量指标的作用较小，因为本月早些时候的下行是由非市场力量驱动的。但即便如此，RSI（14）在 50 以上持续上升，而 MACD 已从下方穿越信号线，正朝着正区间迈进。结合近期价格走势，仍然倾向于上涨。</p>
<p>在当前市场环境中，日本央行的干预风险可能适得其反，可能仅仅是为多头提供更好的入场水平。如本月早些时候所见，干预不仅未能阻止回归先前水平，还可能加剧 JGB 曲线的压力。</p>

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

日本指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>美元/日元的前景受到日本国债收益率上升的困扰，这表明财政和通胀方面的担忧。日本对进口能源的依赖加剧了其经常账户问题，可能导致日元走弱。日本央行面临着一个两难选择：是允许收益率上升还是进行干预，这可能进一步削弱日元。目前的市场状况表明，美元/日元可能上涨至 160，关键阻力位在 159.00。近期的干预措施未能有效稳定局势，引发了对日本债务可持续性的担忧</p>

<ul>
<li>JGB bear steepening signals rising fiscal and inflation concerns</li>
<li>Energy shock risks worsening Japan’s current account outlook</li>
<li>BOJ FX intervention risks intensifying stress in long-dated JGBs</li>
<li>Markets now price 14bp of Fed tightening this year</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本国债的熊市陡峭化信号显示出财政和通胀担忧上升</li>
<li>能源冲击风险加剧日本的经常账户前景</li>
<li>日本央行外汇干预风险加剧长期国债的压力</li>
<li>市场现在预计美联储今年将加息 14 个基点</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Bond vigilantes return to Japan?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>债券警惕者重返日本？</h2>
</div><p>Japan’s bond market is sending an increasingly uncomfortable message about the risks posed by prolonged disruption to global energy markets, with soaring long-dated yields and renewed yen weakness suggesting markets are becoming less convinced policymakers can contain the fallout without eventually sacrificing either the currency or the bond market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的债券市场发出了越来越令人不安的信号，表明全球能源市场长期中断所带来的风险，长期收益率飙升和日元再次走弱表明市场对政策制定者能否在不最终牺牲货币或债券市场的情况下控制后果的信心正在减弱。</p>
</div><p>That tension is on full display again Monday following reports the government may compile another supplementary budget to cushion the economic hit from the Middle East conflict, potentially requiring fresh debt issuance at a time investors are already demanding sharply higher compensation to hold longer-dated government bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种紧张局势在周一再次显现，报道称政府可能编制另一份补充预算，以缓解中东冲突带来的经济冲击，这可能需要在投资者已经要求大幅提高持有长期国债的补偿时，进行新的债务发行。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131032-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131032-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The 10-year JGB yield climbed to the highest level since 1996, while 20 and 30-year yields continued to push aggressively higher in another bear steepening move. While trading conditions further out the curve can often become thin and disjointed, exaggerating the size of individual moves even in Japan, the broader signal from investors about mounting inflation, economic and fiscal concerns is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期日本国债收益率攀升至 1996 年以来的最高水平，而 20 年和 30 年期收益率在另一轮熊市陡峭化中继续大幅上升。尽管曲线远端的交易条件往往变得稀薄且不连贯，夸大了个别波动的幅度，但投资者对日益加剧的通胀、经济和财政担忧的更广泛信号正变得越来越难以忽视。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, while US front-end yields remain the primary driver for USD/JPY, especially with markets now pricing around 14 basis points of additional Fed tightening this year, Japan’s domestic backdrop is becoming an increasingly important secondary story when it comes to understanding why authorities appear increasingly constrained in their ability to repel further yen weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，尽管美国短期收益率仍然是美元/日元的主要驱动因素，尤其是市场现在预计今年将加息约 14 个基点，但日本的国内背景在理解当局为何在抵御进一步日元贬值的能力上显得越来越受限时，正变得越来越重要。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131224-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131224-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>For clarity purposes, the move in JGBs does not reflect markets pricing in aggressive BOJ tightening. If that were the case, the curve would likely bear or twist flatten as short-dated yields increase more than those for longer-dated bonds. Instead, swaps traders appear more concerned by a combination of the BOJ being behind the curve coupled with escalating fiscal and economic risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了明确，JGB 的波动并不反映市场对日本央行激进加息的预期。如果是那样，曲线可能会因短期收益率上升而变得平坦或扭曲。相反，掉期交易者似乎更担心日本央行落后于形势，加上财政和经济风险加剧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131310-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131310-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Bloomberg</p>
</div><h2>Japan’s energy vulnerability exposed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日本的能源脆弱性暴露</h2>
</div><p>Japan is especially vulnerable in this environment given its near-total reliance on imported energy. Persistently high oil and gas prices threaten not only to lift inflation further but also weaken Japan’s current account position as more money flows overseas to pay for energy imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种环境下，日本尤其脆弱，因为其几乎完全依赖进口能源。持续高企的油气价格不仅威胁到进一步抬高通胀，还可能削弱日本的经常账户状况，因为更多资金流向海外以支付能源进口。</p>
</div><p>In simple terms, if Japan needs to sell more yen to buy foreign currencies for energy purchases while export revenues fail to keep pace, it can create another source of downward pressure on the currency at precisely the wrong time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，如果日本需要出售更多日元以购买外币用于能源采购，而出口收入未能跟上，这可能在错误的时机对货币施加进一步的下行压力。</p>
</div><h2>Defend the yen or cap yields?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>捍卫日元还是限制收益率？</h2>
</div><p>The market reaction following suspected intervention activity earlier this month may also provide an important warning for policymakers. Once authorities moved to slow USD/JPY upside, pressure immediately migrated into the back-end of the JGB curve with long-dated yields surging higher. Rather than disappearing, the stress simply found another outlet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候在怀疑干预活动后的市场反应也可能为政策制定者提供了重要警示。一旦当局采取措施减缓美元/日元的上涨压力，压力立即转移到 JGB 曲线的后端，长期收益率飙升。压力并没有消失，而是找到了另一个出口。</p>
</div><p>That leaves Japanese policymakers facing an increasingly difficult balancing act. Allow yields to rise and concerns around debt sustainability intensify. But if the BOJ attempts to suppress volatility in longer-dated bonds through stepped-up market operations involving heavier bond buying, including unscheduled or emergency operations should volatility spike further, the pressure release valve may instead come through a much weaker yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得日本政策制定者面临越来越困难的平衡。允许收益率上升，债务可持续性担忧加剧。但如果日本央行试图通过加大市场操作，包括在波动性进一步上升时进行非计划或紧急的债券购买，来抑制长期债券的波动，压力释放阀可能反而会通过更弱的日元来实现。</p>
</div><h2>USD/JPY marches towards 160</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/日元朝着 160 迈进</h2>
</div><p>If large-scale JGB purchases were to be announced by the BOJ, it could see USD/JPY rip higher, potentially putting it on a collision course with the YTD high of 160.73 and, if broken, the multi-decade swing high of 161.95 set in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果日本央行宣布大规模购买 JGB，可能会导致美元/日元大幅上涨，可能与年初至今的高点 160.73 相撞，如果突破，将与 2024 年设定的数十年高点 161.95 相遇。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131413-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518131413-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Right now, the pair is testing minor resistance at 159.00, continuing to push higher in an established uptrend from the lows set earlier this month during suspected intervention activity from the BOJ on behalf of the government. The price now trades above each of the key medium and longer-term moving averages, having breezed through the 50DMA earlier in the session. A break above 159.00 would increase the likelihood of a retest of the YTD highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，该货币对正在测试 159.00 的次要阻力，继续在本月早些时候日本央行代表政府进行干预活动时设定的低点上升。价格现在高于每个关键的中长期移动平均线，早些时候已经突破 50 日均线。突破 159.00 将增加重新测试年初至今高点的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Underneath current levels, downside support zones to watch include the 50DMA, the breakout zone at 157.92, followed by the 100DMA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前水平下，值得关注的下行支撑区包括 50 日均线、157.92 的突破区，以及 100 日均线。</p>
</div><p>The momentum indicators are less useful in the current environment given the downside created earlier this month was driven by non-market forces. But even then, RSI (14) is trending higher above 50 while MACD has crossed the signal line from below and is motoring towards positive territory. Combined with recent price action, it continues to favour upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前环境下，动量指标的作用较小，因为本月早些时候的下行是由非市场力量驱动的。但即便如此，RSI（14）在 50 以上持续上升，而 MACD 已从下方穿越信号线，正朝着正区间迈进。结合近期价格走势，仍然倾向于上涨。</p>
</div><p>In the current market regime, BOJ intervention risks proving counterproductive, potentially doing little more than generating better levels for bulls to enter. As seen earlier this month, intervention not only failed to prevent a return towards prior levels but also risks exacerbating stress further out the JGB curve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前市场环境中，日本央行的干预风险可能适得其反，可能仅仅是为多头提供更好的入场水平。如本月早些时候所见，干预不仅未能阻止回归先前水平，还可能加剧 JGB 曲线的压力。</p>
</div>

美元兑日元的前景：日本国债收益率曲线熊市陡峭化暗示日元面临更严重的问题