<p>日经 225 指数连续三天下跌，最低跌至¥60,910，为今年 5 月 7 日以来的最低水平。由于原油价格下跌，日本国债收益率上升，该指数已从本月的高点¥63,760 回落。</p>
<p><strong>日本股市因原油价格上涨而下跌</strong></p>
<p>日经 225 和东证指数连续第三天下跌，原因是原油价格上涨。布伦特原油，全球基准，涨至$113，而西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）涨至$110。</p>
<p>在特朗普总统威胁伊朗时间不多之后，这些基准价格上涨。在与 Axios 的简短采访中，他警告称 “时间在流逝”，美国将在更强硬的打击之前采取行动。</p>
<p>特朗普及其顾问希望一次毁灭性的攻击能迫使伊朗回到谈判桌前。</p>
<p>然而，现实是这样的攻击将导致一场持久且更危险的战争。首先，美国媒体报道表明，伊朗已重新恢复其军事行动，并且现在已完全武装。</p>
<p>伊朗还警告称，它将对地区石油基础设施发起更严重的攻击。它可能还会威胁红海的交通，这在其导弹的射程之内。</p>
<p>日本对此类事态发展高度敏感，因为它是一个净石油进口国。此外，数据显示日本的石油库存今年持续下降。每周石油库存减少了 2.75 亿升，这一趋势可能会持续。</p>
<p><strong>日本政府债券收益率飙升</strong></p>
<p>随着投资者预测通胀将保持在高位，日经 225 指数也在下滑，因为日本政府债券收益率上涨。</p>
<p>分析师还警告称，这些收益率是该国财政担忧的迹象。此外，日本的债务超过 8.58 万亿美元，债务与 GDP 比率达到 250%。</p>
<p>数据显示，日本 10 年期收益率跃升至 2.77%，而 5 年期收益率飙升至 2.01%。30 年期收益率已飙升至 4.19%，创下历史最高水平。</p>
<p><em>日本债券收益率 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>这些数字令人担忧。首先，美国和日本债券收益率之间的利差持续缩小。这可能导致更多资金回流到高收益的日本债券。</p>
<p>这也令人担忧，因为这意味着日本企业现在需要为其债务支付更高的利率。同时，人们担心日本银行将需要再次加息。</p>
<p><strong>日经 225 指数技术分析</strong></p>
<p><em>日经指数图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>日线图显示，日经 225 指数上周飙升至¥63,805 的历史高点，然后回落至当前的¥60,937。</p>
<p>仔细观察显示，反弹发生在形成了一个杯柄形态之后，其上方在¥59,462。</p>
<p>因此，当前的回撤很可能是突破再测试模式的一部分。这是一种资产突破关键阻力位后再进行测试的情况。在技术分析中，这是一个常见的看涨延续信号。</p>
<p>因此，价格可能会重新测试¥59,462 的支撑位，然后反弹。如果发生这种情况，它可能会重新测试关键阻力位¥63,805 并突破该水平。</p>

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南方两倍看多日经

南方日经225

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

<p>日经 225 指数连续三天下跌，达到¥60,910，为自五月以来的最低点。这一下降归因于原油价格上涨，布伦特原油价格为$113，WTI 原油价格为$110，受到与伊朗相关的地缘政治紧张局势的影响。此外，日本政府债券收益率飙升，引发了对通货膨胀和财政稳定的担忧，因为日本的债务与 GDP 比率高达 250%。分析师建议，该指数可能会在¥59,462 处重新测试支撑位，然后可能会反弹</p>

<p>The Nikkei 225 Index dropped for three consecutive days, reaching a low of ¥60,910, its lowest level since May 7 this year. It has pulled back from this month’s high of ¥63,760 as crude oil prices drop, and Japan bond yields jump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经 225 指数连续三天下跌，最低跌至¥60,910，为今年 5 月 7 日以来的最低水平。由于原油价格下跌，日本国债收益率上升，该指数已从本月的高点¥63,760 回落。</p>
</div><p><strong>Japan stocks drop as crude oil prices jump</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>日本股市因原油价格上涨而下跌</strong></p>
</div><p>The Nikkei 225 and Topix indices retreated for the third consecutive day as crude oil prices jumped. Brent, the global benchmark, rose to $113, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $110.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经 225 和东证指数连续第三天下跌，原因是原油价格上涨。布伦特原油，全球基准，涨至$113，而西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）涨至$110。</p>
</div><p>These benchmarks jumped after President Donald Trump threatened Iran that time was running out. In a short interview with Axios, he warned that the “clock is ticking” before the US launches harder strikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普总统威胁伊朗时间不多之后，这些基准价格上涨。在与 Axios 的简短采访中，他警告称 “时间在流逝”，美国将在更强硬的打击之前采取行动。</p>
</div><p>Trump and his advisors hope that a devastating attack would push Iran back to the negotiating table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普及其顾问希望一次毁灭性的攻击能迫使伊朗回到谈判桌前。</p>
</div><p>However, the reality is that such an attack would lead to a prolonged and more dangerous war. For one, US media reports suggest that Iran has reconstituted its military operations and is now fully armed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，现实是这样的攻击将导致一场持久且更危险的战争。首先，美国媒体报道表明，伊朗已重新恢复其军事行动，并且现在已完全武装。</p>
</div><p>Iran has also warned that it will launch a more severe attack on regional oil infrastructure. It may also threaten traffic in the Red Sea, which is within the range of its missiles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗还警告称，它将对地区石油基础设施发起更严重的攻击。它可能还会威胁红海的交通，这在其导弹的射程之内。</p>
</div><p>Japan is highly exposed to these developments because it is a net importer of oil. Also, data shows that Japan’s oil inventories have continued dropping this year. Weekly oil inventories dropped by 275 million liters, a trend that may continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本对此类事态发展高度敏感，因为它是一个净石油进口国。此外，数据显示日本的石油库存今年持续下降。每周石油库存减少了 2.75 亿升，这一趋势可能会持续。</p>
</div><p><strong>Soaring Japanese government bond yields</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>日本政府债券收益率飙升</strong></p>
</div><p>The Nikkei 225 Index is also slipping as Japanese government bond yields jump as investors predict that inflation will remain at an elevated level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着投资者预测通胀将保持在高位，日经 225 指数也在下滑，因为日本政府债券收益率上涨。</p>
</div><p>Analysts also warn that these yields are a sign of fiscal worries in the country. Besides, Japan has over $8.58 trillion in debt, giving it a debt-to-GDP ratio of 250%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师还警告称，这些收益率是该国财政担忧的迹象。此外，日本的债务超过 8.58 万亿美元，债务与 GDP 比率达到 250%。</p>
</div><p>Data show that Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to 2.77%, while the 5-year yield soared to 2.01%. The 30-year yield has soared to 4.19%, the highest level on record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据显示，日本 10 年期收益率跃升至 2.77%，而 5 年期收益率飙升至 2.01%。30 年期收益率已飙升至 4.19%，创下历史最高水平。</p>
</div><p><em>Japan bond yields | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>日本债券收益率 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>These numbers are concerning. For one, the spread between the US and Japanese bond yields has continued to narrow. This may lead to more repatriation of cash to the high-yielding Japanese bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数字令人担忧。首先，美国和日本债券收益率之间的利差持续缩小。这可能导致更多资金回流到高收益的日本债券。</p>
</div><p>It is also concerning because it means that corporate Japan will now need to pay higher interest rates for their debt. At the same time, there are concerns that the Bank of Japan will need to hike interest rates again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也令人担忧，因为这意味着日本企业现在需要为其债务支付更高的利率。同时，人们担心日本银行将需要再次加息。</p>
</div><p><strong>Nikkei 225 Index technical analysis</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>日经 225 指数技术分析</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Nikkei Index chart | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>日经指数图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily chart shows that the Nikkei 225 Index soared to a record high of ¥63,805 last week and then pulled back to the current ¥60,937.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，日经 225 指数上周飙升至¥63,805 的历史高点，然后回落至当前的¥60,937。</p>
</div><p>A closer look shows that the rebound happened after it formed a cup-and-handle pattern whose upper side is at ¥59,462.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仔细观察显示，反弹发生在形成了一个杯柄形态之后，其上方在¥59,462。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, there is a likelihood that the ongoing retreat is part of the break-and-retest pattern. This is a situation where an asset breaks above a key resistance and then retests it. It is a common bullish continuation sign in technical analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，当前的回撤很可能是突破再测试模式的一部分。这是一种资产突破关键阻力位后再进行测试的情况。在技术分析中，这是一个常见的看涨延续信号。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the price will likely retest the support at ¥59,462 and then bounce back. If this happens, it may retest the key resistance level at ¥63,805 and move above it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，价格可能会重新测试¥59,462 的支撑位，然后反弹。如果发生这种情况，它可能会重新测试关键阻力位¥63,805 并突破该水平。</p>
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日经 225 指数今日暴跌的两个主要原因