<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Silver-bars-in-production-in-factory.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Silver-bars-in-production-in-factory.png"/></p>
<p>银价在周一连续第三个交易日下跌，XAG/USD 在亚洲时段交易约为每盎司 74.20 美元。</p>
<p>投资者对印度意外限制银进口的反应、对美联储再次加息的预期上升以及瑞银对投资需求的疲软预测做出了反应。</p>
<p>由于中东地缘政治紧张局势持续扰动投资者，贵金属也受到美元走强和金融市场普遍风险厌恶的压力。</p>
<h2>印度进口限制打击市场情绪</h2>
<p>印度在周五晚间宣布几乎全面限制银进口，旨在缓解卢比压力并增加国内供应。</p>
<p>这些限制预计将收紧进口银的本地供应，可能在短期内抬高国内溢价并支持当地价格。</p>
<p>然而，考虑到印度作为全球最大银消费国之一的重要性，这一举措被广泛视为对全球银价的看跌因素。</p>
<p>分析师表示，印度进口需求的缺失可能会在工业金属情绪已经减弱的情况下，对国际市场造成重大压力。</p>
<p>虽然本地交易者可能会因供应条件收紧和溢价上升而受益，但更广泛的全球市场可能会因整体需求减弱而受到影响。</p>
<h2>美联储加息预期加强美元</h2>
<p>银价也受到美联储可能在今年晚些时候进一步收紧货币政策的预期上升的压力。</p>
<p>市场越来越多地将 12 月美国加息的可能性纳入定价，因为能源价格上涨和地缘政治紧张局势威胁到通胀的持续高企。</p>
<p>几位美联储官员的最新评论强化了政策制定者仍然专注于控制通胀的观点，并准备在必要时将利率维持在较高水平。</p>
<p>更紧的货币政策前景提升了美元，使得以美元计价的商品（如银）对海外买家而言变得更加昂贵。</p>
<p>更高的利率通常也会通过增加持有非收益资产（如贵金属）的机会成本，降低其吸引力。</p>
<h2>瑞银下调需求展望</h2>
<p>在看跌情绪加重的背景下，瑞银分析师下调了全球银投资需求的展望，并减少了市场赤字的预测。</p>
<p>该银行现在预计全球银赤字将缩小至 6000 万至 7000 万盎司，低于之前约 3 亿盎司的估计。</p>
<p>瑞银表示，工业需求疲软和新开采银供应的增加显著改变了之前支持银价上涨预期的市场平衡。</p>
<p>根据该银行的说法，矿产生产的增加抵消了工业需求的减弱，减少了对严重供应短缺的担忧，而这种担忧曾在年初支持了银价。</p>
<p>此次下调削弱了银价的一个关键看涨论点——持续结构性稀缺的前景。</p>
<h2>地缘政治紧张加剧波动性</h2>
<p>在霍尔木兹海峡、伊朗和台湾的地缘政治紧张局势持续的背景下，市场情绪依然脆弱。</p>
<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗的公开警告以及对全球能源市场供应中断的担忧加剧了各类资产的风险厌恶情绪。</p>
<p>通常情况下，地缘政治不确定性加剧会提升对贵金属的避险需求。</p>
<p>然而，分析师表示，银的重工业暴露使其更容易受到全球增长放缓和制造活动减弱的担忧影响。</p>
<p>与黄金不同，银的需求相当大一部分来自工业应用，包括电子产品、太阳能电池板和制造业，使其对经济状况特别敏感。</p>
<h2>这对银市场意味着什么</h2>
<p>银作为工业金属和价值储存的双重角色，继续使其暴露于相互竞争的宏观经济力量之中。</p>
<p>虽然地缘政治风险和通胀担忧可能通过避险买盘提供一些支持，但这种影响目前被更强的美元、紧缩的货币政策预期和减弱的工业需求所抵消。</p>
<p>如果印度的进口限制持续一段时间，可能还会在全球需求流动中造成更持久的扭曲。</p>
<p>目前，交易者预计将继续关注美联储的政策预期、美元的走势以及任何进一步放缓的工业活动迹象。</p>
<p>随着投资需求减弱和供应担忧缓解，尽管地缘政治紧张局势高企，银价的短期前景仍然承压。</p>
<p>该文章的标题为《银价再次下跌：美联储加息担忧是否将更大程度地影响价格？》，首次发布在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>银价连续第三个交易日下跌，交易价格约为每盎司 74.20 美元，受到印度对银进口的限制、美联储加息预期上升以及瑞银对需求预测下调的影响。强势美元和地缘政治紧张局势进一步加大了市场压力。瑞银修订了全球银需求展望，预测市场赤字将缩小，这削弱了看涨的价格预期。银作为工业金属和价值储存工具的双重角色使其容易受到宏观经济力量的影响，短期前景仍然承压</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Silver-bars-in-production-in-factory.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Silver-bars-in-production-in-factory.png"/></p>
<p>Silver extended its decline for a third consecutive session on Monday, with XAG/USD trading around $74.20 per troy ounce during Asian hours.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价在周一连续第三个交易日下跌，XAG/USD 在亚洲时段交易约为每盎司 74.20 美元。</p>
</div><p>Investors reacted to India’s surprise restrictions on silver imports, rising expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike and weaker investment demand projections from UBS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对印度意外限制银进口的反应、对美联储再次加息的预期上升以及瑞银对投资需求的疲软预测做出了反应。</p>
</div><p>The precious metal also came under pressure from a stronger US Dollar and broader risk aversion across financial markets as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to unsettle investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于中东地缘政治紧张局势持续扰动投资者，贵金属也受到美元走强和金融市场普遍风险厌恶的压力。</p>
</div><h2>India import clampdown hits market sentiment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>印度进口限制打击市场情绪</h2>
</div><p>India announced a near-total curb on silver imports late on Friday in a move aimed at easing pressure on the rupee and boosting domestic supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度在周五晚间宣布几乎全面限制银进口，旨在缓解卢比压力并增加国内供应。</p>
</div><p>The restrictions are expected to tighten local availability of imported silver, potentially lifting domestic premiums and supporting local prices in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些限制预计将收紧进口银的本地供应，可能在短期内抬高国内溢价并支持当地价格。</p>
</div><p>However, the move is widely seen as bearish for global silver prices given India’s importance as one of the world’s largest consumers of the metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，考虑到印度作为全球最大银消费国之一的重要性，这一举措被广泛视为对全球银价的看跌因素。</p>
</div><p>Analysts said the absence of Indian import demand could weigh heavily on international markets at a time when sentiment toward industrial metals is already weakening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，印度进口需求的缺失可能会在工业金属情绪已经减弱的情况下，对国际市场造成重大压力。</p>
</div><p>While local traders may benefit from tighter supply conditions and stronger premiums, the broader global market is likely to feel the impact through softer overall demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然本地交易者可能会因供应条件收紧和溢价上升而受益，但更广泛的全球市场可能会因整体需求减弱而受到影响。</p>
</div><h2>Fed hike fears strengthen dollar</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储加息预期加强美元</h2>
</div><p>Silver was also pressured by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy further later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价也受到美联储可能在今年晚些时候进一步收紧货币政策的预期上升的压力。</p>
</div><p>Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a December US rate increase as higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions threaten to keep inflation elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场越来越多地将 12 月美国加息的可能性纳入定价，因为能源价格上涨和地缘政治紧张局势威胁到通胀的持续高企。</p>
</div><p>Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials reinforced the view that policymakers remain focused on controlling inflation and are prepared to keep rates higher for longer if necessary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几位美联储官员的最新评论强化了政策制定者仍然专注于控制通胀的观点，并准备在必要时将利率维持在较高水平。</p>
</div><p>The prospect of tighter monetary policy lifted the US Dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities such as silver more expensive for overseas buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更紧的货币政策前景提升了美元，使得以美元计价的商品（如银）对海外买家而言变得更加昂贵。</p>
</div><p>Higher interest rates also tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals by increasing the opportunity cost of holding them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的利率通常也会通过增加持有非收益资产（如贵金属）的机会成本，降低其吸引力。</p>
</div><h2>UBS cuts demand outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>瑞银下调需求展望</h2>
</div><p>Adding to the bearish tone, analysts at UBS lowered their outlook for global silver investment demand and reduced forecasts for the market deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在看跌情绪加重的背景下，瑞银分析师下调了全球银投资需求的展望，并减少了市场赤字的预测。</p>
</div><p>The bank now expects the global silver deficit to narrow to between 60 million and 70 million ounces, down from previous estimates of around 300 million ounces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行现在预计全球银赤字将缩小至 6000 万至 7000 万盎司，低于之前约 3 亿盎司的估计。</p>
</div><p>UBS said weaker industrial demand and a rise in newly mined silver supply had significantly altered the market balance that previously supported bullish expectations for higher prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银表示，工业需求疲软和新开采银供应的增加显著改变了之前支持银价上涨预期的市场平衡。</p>
</div><p>According to the bank, increased mine production has offset softer industrial demand, reducing fears of a severe supply shortage that had helped support silver prices earlier in the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据该银行的说法，矿产生产的增加抵消了工业需求的减弱，减少了对严重供应短缺的担忧，而这种担忧曾在年初支持了银价。</p>
</div><p>The downgrade undermined one of the key bullish arguments for silver — the prospect of sustained structural scarcity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次下调削弱了银价的一个关键看涨论点——持续结构性稀缺的前景。</p>
</div><h2>Geopolitical tensions add to volatility</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>地缘政治紧张加剧波动性</h2>
</div><p>Broader market sentiment remained fragile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and Taiwan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在霍尔木兹海峡、伊朗和台湾的地缘政治紧张局势持续的背景下，市场情绪依然脆弱。</p>
</div><p>Public warnings from US President Donald Trump to Iran and concerns over supply disruptions in global energy markets fuelled wider risk aversion across asset classes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗的公开警告以及对全球能源市场供应中断的担忧加剧了各类资产的风险厌恶情绪。</p>
</div><p>Ordinarily, heightened geopolitical uncertainty can boost safe-haven demand for precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常情况下，地缘政治不确定性加剧会提升对贵金属的避险需求。</p>
</div><p>However, analysts said silver’s heavy industrial exposure left it more vulnerable to concerns over slowing global growth and weaker manufacturing activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，分析师表示，银的重工业暴露使其更容易受到全球增长放缓和制造活动减弱的担忧影响。</p>
</div><p>Unlike gold, silver derives a substantial share of its demand from industrial applications including electronics, solar panels and manufacturing, making it especially sensitive to economic conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与黄金不同，银的需求相当大一部分来自工业应用，包括电子产品、太阳能电池板和制造业，使其对经济状况特别敏感。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for silver markets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对银市场意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>Silver’s dual role as both an industrial metal and a store of value continues to leave it exposed to competing macroeconomic forces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银作为工业金属和价值储存的双重角色，继续使其暴露于相互竞争的宏观经济力量之中。</p>
</div><p>While geopolitical risks and inflation concerns could offer some support through safe-haven buying, that effect is currently being outweighed by a stronger dollar, tighter monetary policy expectations and weakening industrial demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然地缘政治风险和通胀担忧可能通过避险买盘提供一些支持，但这种影响目前被更强的美元、紧缩的货币政策预期和减弱的工业需求所抵消。</p>
</div><p>India’s import restrictions may also create longer-lasting distortions in global demand flows if they remain in place for an extended period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果印度的进口限制持续一段时间，可能还会在全球需求流动中造成更持久的扭曲。</p>
</div><p>For now, traders are expected to remain focused on Federal Reserve policy expectations, movements in the dollar and any further signs of slowing industrial activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，交易者预计将继续关注美联储的政策预期、美元的走势以及任何进一步放缓的工业活动迹象。</p>
</div><p>With investment demand weakening and supply concerns easing, the near-term outlook for silver prices remains under pressure despite elevated geopolitical tensions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着投资需求减弱和供应担忧缓解，尽管地缘政治紧张局势高企，银价的短期前景仍然承压。</p>
</div><p>The post Silver falls again: are Fed rate fears about to hit prices harder? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该文章的标题为《银价再次下跌：美联储加息担忧是否将更大程度地影响价格？》，首次发布在 Invezz 上。</p>
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Silver falls again: are Fed rate fears about to hit prices harder?

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白银价格再次下跌：美联储加息的担忧是否会对价格造成更大的冲击？