<p>美国的中期选举还有六个月，但许多股票正在受到提振。选举对政策倡议有影响，尤其是中期选举更是如此。</p>
<p>S&amp;P 道琼斯研究显示，对于中小型公司，在仅有国会选举的月份，跨行业影响的发生率平均高达 83%，而在总统选举月份则为 67%。这表明，中期选举实际上可能对行业关系造成更大的干扰，即使它们受到的关注较少。</p>
<p>原因显而易见，并且随着两党极端派的影响力加大而愈加明显。具体到今年 11 月，如果在野党控制了国会两院，投资者应该预期政策优先事项会有很大不同。相反，如果现状保持不变，过去两年内的政策将会继续。</p>
<p>获取 <strong>Lockheed Martin</strong> 的提醒：</p>
<h2>政治因素不如宏观故事重要</h2>
<p>但这并不一定反映在市场上。这提醒我们，股市并不等同于经济，但经济基本面对市场的影响往往大于选举结果。随着中期选举的临近，通货膨胀、GDP 增长和地缘政治紧张等问题可能对投资者更为重要。</p>
<p>这就是为什么始终要记住市场是前瞻性的。短期动量确实起到了一定作用。但在许多情况下，当投资者看到某只股票或整个行业上涨或下跌时，他们应该拿出水晶球，因为这正是大资金所做的。在夏季活动之前，可能是考虑在这些证券中建立或增加头寸的时机。</p>
<h2>LMT 和 RTX 不必是非此即彼的选择</h2>
<p>即使与伊朗的冲突的动能部分已经结束，2026 年上半年也表明国防支出可能会增加。投资者通常将洛克希德·马丁 NYSE: LMT 和 RTX NYSE: RTX 视为非此即彼的选择。然而，在五角大楼加速向自主系统和人工智能驱动的战争转型的时刻，持有两者的理由值得考虑。</p>
<p>拟议的 2026 财年（FY2026）国防部预算单独分配超过 130 亿美元用于自主和人工智能项目。这表明支出争夺战不仅仅是关于传统采购。两家公司都在为这一转型做好准备，但路径不同。</p>
<p>洛克希德的论点集中在将传统硬件升级为下一代能力。该公司正在将人工智能和自主能力嵌入其世界领先的平台，使其成为网络战场中的智能节点。它还在开发包括高超音速和定向能武器在内的先进技术。这种方法较慢，但风险较低，因为公司的现有技术深深嵌入现有的政府合同中。</p>
<p>RTX 在自主方面的进展更快。该公司与 Shield AI 合作，推出了首个由网络协作自主技术驱动的作战武器，将自主能力整合到滞空弹药和传感器中——完全由公司自身资助，而没有政府投资。</p>
<p>这种私人资本的承诺表明对国防支出方向的真实信心。</p>
<p>在政治上，国防预算在中期权力转移后不会大幅缩减。无论 11 月的结果如何，现有合同都将保持不变。</p>
<p>问题不在于哪家公司赢得下一代转型，而在于它们能分得多少蛋糕。</p>
<h2>没有人同意这个中期策略——这使得它值得关注</h2>
<p>医疗保健是美国政治的第三轨道，每两年市场都必须考虑可能发生的变化。但正是这种紧张关系为在医疗保健精选 SPDR 基金 NYSEARCA: XLV 中提供广泛的投资机会创造了条件。</p>
<p>在 1994 年至 2024 年的中期选举年中，医疗保健的表现平均超过标准普尔 500 指数近 17%。然而，该行业目前表现滞后。XLV 年初至今下跌约 5%，受到药品定价不确定性和管理医疗保健盈利压力的影响。</p>
<p>尽管如此，人口结构的因素是明确的。老龄化人口意味着对医疗产品和服务的结构性需求增加，从药品和管理医疗到医疗设备和生物技术。这种需求不会因选举结果而改变。</p>
<p>但政治因素则较为复杂。医疗保健成本在特朗普第二任期的第一年中占据重要位置，并且在 2026 年中期选举前可能会发挥更大作用，税收立法将在十年内削减超过 1 万亿美元的健康保险支出——主要是医疗补助——以帮助资助更广泛的减税。ACA 补贴恢复和药品定价改革是两党都在关注的热点问题。</p>
<p>历史模式与当前表现之间的差距创造了机会。医疗保健成本对两党来说都是一个真正的预算问题。这意味着双方都无法承受该行业的崩溃，只能对其进行重塑。对于一个有六个月投资视野并能容忍政策噪音的投资者来说，今天的入场点在 11 月可能看起来更好。</p>
<h2>对利率无所谓？并非如此。</h2>
<p>在现在到中期选举之间，利率将成为焦点。CME FedWatch 工具现在将 10 月份加息的概率设定为约 21%。这推动了对金融精选行业 SPDR 基金 NYSEARCA: XLF 的兴趣。</p>
<p>这符合传统观点：利率上升对银行有利，而利率下降则压缩利润率。这个框架大体上是正确的。金融股并不完全无关紧要，但它们更关注利差而非绝对水平。随着 10 年期国债收益率曲线的正常化，地区贷款机构的净利差应该会改善，而数字资产整合和智能 AI 的采用为大型机构开辟了新的效率和收入渠道。</p>
<p>这也部分解释了 XLF 在 2026 年的糟糕开局。该基金的交易价格比其 52 周高点低近 13%，而金融股是标准普尔 500 指数年初至今表现最差的行业。</p>
<p>也就是说，金融股对政策的敏感性可能比利率更为重要，尤其是在我们接近 11 月的时候。从特朗普第二任期开始，市场对进一步金融放松监管（即进一步拆解多德 - 弗兰克法案条款和消费者金融保护局）的预期非常高。民主党控制众议院将使更严格的资本要求和恢复消费者保护重新回到议程上。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在洛克希德马丁吗？</h2>
<p>在你考虑洛克希德马丁之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只顶级分析师悄悄向客户推荐的股票，建议在更广泛的市场注意到之前买入……而洛克希德马丁并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然洛克希德马丁目前在分析师中被评为持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

洛克希德马丁

雷神技术公司

美国航天国防股指数 ETF - iShares

<p>随着 2026 年中期选举的临近，预计国防、医疗保健和金融股票将因潜在的政策变化而表现优于其他行业。研究表明，中期选举可能比总统选举更能扰动行业关系。投资者被建议考虑在像洛克希德马丁和雷神技术公司这样的公司中建立头寸，这些公司正在适应国防支出的增加。尽管医疗保健行业目前表现不佳，但预计将受益于人口趋势，尽管政治不确定性依然存在</p>

<p>The midterm elections in the United States are still six months away, but there are many stocks that are getting a boost. Elections have consequences for policy initiatives, and that’s particularly true for midterm elections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的中期选举还有六个月，但许多股票正在受到提振。选举对政策倡议有影响，尤其是中期选举更是如此。</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones research shows that for mid- and small-cap companies, cross-sector effects in congressional election months were greater than average 83% of the time in months with only congressional elections, outpacing presidential election months at 67%. This suggests midterms may actually be more disruptive to sector relationships than presidential elections, even if they receive less attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S&amp;P 道琼斯研究显示，对于中小型公司，在仅有国会选举的月份，跨行业影响的发生率平均高达 83%，而在总统选举月份则为 67%。这表明，中期选举实际上可能对行业关系造成更大的干扰，即使它们受到的关注较少。</p>
</div><p>The reason is obvious and becoming amplified as the extremes of both parties hold greater sway. Specific to this November, if the party out of power wins control of both houses of Congress, investors should expect a very different set of policy priorities. Conversely, if the status quo remains, there will be more of what’s been in place in the last two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因显而易见，并且随着两党极端派的影响力加大而愈加明显。具体到今年 11 月，如果在野党控制了国会两院，投资者应该预期政策优先事项会有很大不同。相反，如果现状保持不变，过去两年内的政策将会继续。</p>
</div><p>Get <strong>Lockheed Martin</strong> alerts:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取 <strong>Lockheed Martin</strong> 的提醒：</p>
</div><h2>Politics Matters Less Than the Macro Story</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>政治因素不如宏观故事重要</h2>
</div><p>But that’s not necessarily what the markets are showing. That’s a good reminder that the stock market is not the economy, but that economic fundamentals shape the market more than election outcomes do. With the midterm elections looming, issues like inflation, GDP growth, and geopolitical tensions may carry more weight for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这并不一定反映在市场上。这提醒我们，股市并不等同于经济，但经济基本面对市场的影响往往大于选举结果。随着中期选举的临近，通货膨胀、GDP 增长和地缘政治紧张等问题可能对投资者更为重要。</p>
</div><p>This is why it’s always important to remember that markets are forward-looking. Short-term momentum plays a role for sure. But in many cases, when investors see a stock or an entire sector moving higher or lower, they should take out their crystal ball, because that’s what the big money is doing. Before stepping away for summer activities, it may be time to consider taking, or adding to, a position in these securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么始终要记住市场是前瞻性的。短期动量确实起到了一定作用。但在许多情况下，当投资者看到某只股票或整个行业上涨或下跌时，他们应该拿出水晶球，因为这正是大资金所做的。在夏季活动之前，可能是考虑在这些证券中建立或增加头寸的时机。</p>
</div><h2>LMT and RTX Don't Have to Be an Either/Or Decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>LMT 和 RTX 不必是非此即彼的选择</h2>
</div><p>Even if the kinetic part of the conflict with Iran is over, the first half of 2026 has illustrated the likelihood that more will be spent on defense. Investors often frame Lockheed Martin NYSE: LMT and RTX NYSE: RTX as an either/or choice. However, at a time when the Pentagon is accelerating toward autonomous systems and AI-powered warfare, the case for holding both is worth considering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使与伊朗的冲突的动能部分已经结束，2026 年上半年也表明国防支出可能会增加。投资者通常将洛克希德·马丁 NYSE: LMT 和 RTX NYSE: RTX 视为非此即彼的选择。然而，在五角大楼加速向自主系统和人工智能驱动的战争转型的时刻，持有两者的理由值得考虑。</p>
</div><p>The proposed fiscal 2026 (FY2026) Defense Department budget allocates over $13 billion to autonomy and AI initiatives alone. This is a signal that the spending battle isn't just about legacy procurement. Both companies are positioning for this transition, but through different paths.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拟议的 2026 财年（FY2026）国防部预算单独分配超过 130 亿美元用于自主和人工智能项目。这表明支出争夺战不仅仅是关于传统采购。两家公司都在为这一转型做好准备，但路径不同。</p>
</div><p>Lockheed's argument centers on upgrading legacy hardware into next-generation capability. The company is embedding AI and autonomous capabilities into its world-leading platforms, making them intelligent nodes in a networked battlefield. It is also developing advanced technologies, including hypersonics and directed energy weapons. The approach is slower but carries lower risk because the company’s existing technology is deeply embedded in existing government contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>洛克希德的论点集中在将传统硬件升级为下一代能力。该公司正在将人工智能和自主能力嵌入其世界领先的平台，使其成为网络战场中的智能节点。它还在开发包括高超音速和定向能武器在内的先进技术。这种方法较慢，但风险较低，因为公司的现有技术深深嵌入现有的政府合同中。</p>
</div><p>RTX is moving faster on autonomy. The company partnered with Shield AI to field the first operational weapon powered by Networked Collaborative Autonomy, integrating autonomous capabilities into loitering munitions and sensors—fully funded by the companies themselves, without government investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RTX 在自主方面的进展更快。该公司与 Shield AI 合作，推出了首个由网络协作自主技术驱动的作战武器，将自主能力整合到滞空弹药和传感器中——完全由公司自身资助，而没有政府投资。</p>
</div><p>That private-capital commitment signals real conviction in where defense spending is heading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种私人资本的承诺表明对国防支出方向的真实信心。</p>
</div><p>Politically, defense budgets don't contract dramatically after midterm power shifts. Either outcome in November keeps the contracts already on the books intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在政治上，国防预算在中期权力转移后不会大幅缩减。无论 11 月的结果如何，现有合同都将保持不变。</p>
</div><p>The question isn't which company wins the next-gen transition, but how much of the pie they get.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题不在于哪家公司赢得下一代转型，而在于它们能分得多少蛋糕。</p>
</div><h2>Nobody Agrees on This Midterm Play—Which Makes It Worth Watching</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>没有人同意这个中期策略——这使得它值得关注</h2>
</div><p>Healthcare is the third rail of American politics, and every two years the market has to price in what might actually change. But it’s that tension that creates an opportunity for broad exposure in the Health Care Select SPDR Fund NYSEARCA: XLV.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>医疗保健是美国政治的第三轨道，每两年市场都必须考虑可能发生的变化。但正是这种紧张关系为在医疗保健精选 SPDR 基金 NYSEARCA: XLV 中提供广泛的投资机会创造了条件。</p>
</div><p>In midterm election years from 1994 to 2024, healthcare outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by an average of nearly 17%. And yet the sector is currently lagging. The XLV is down about 5% year-to-date, weighed down by drug-pricing uncertainty and managed-care earnings pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1994 年至 2024 年的中期选举年中，医疗保健的表现平均超过标准普尔 500 指数近 17%。然而，该行业目前表现滞后。XLV 年初至今下跌约 5%，受到药品定价不确定性和管理医疗保健盈利压力的影响。</p>
</div><p>That said, the demographic case is unambiguous. An aging population means structural increases in demand for healthcare products and services, ranging from pharmaceuticals and managed care to medical devices and biotech. That demand doesn't change based on election outcomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，人口结构的因素是明确的。老龄化人口意味着对医疗产品和服务的结构性需求增加，从药品和管理医疗到医疗设备和生物技术。这种需求不会因选举结果而改变。</p>
</div><p>But the political case is messy. Healthcare costs figured prominently in the first year of Trump's second term and will likely play an even bigger role heading into the 2026 midterms, with tax legislation cutting more than $1 trillion from health insurance spending over a decade—mostly Medicaid—to help fund broader tax cuts. ACA subsidy reinstatement and drug pricing reform are live issues on both sides of the aisle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但政治因素则较为复杂。医疗保健成本在特朗普第二任期的第一年中占据重要位置，并且在 2026 年中期选举前可能会发挥更大作用，税收立法将在十年内削减超过 1 万亿美元的健康保险支出——主要是医疗补助——以帮助资助更广泛的减税。ACA 补贴恢复和药品定价改革是两党都在关注的热点问题。</p>
</div><p>That gap between historical patterns and current performance sets up the opportunity. Healthcare costs are a genuine budget problem for both parties. That means neither side can afford to crater the sector, only reshape it. For an investor with a six-month horizon and tolerance for policy noise, the entry point today may look a lot better come November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史模式与当前表现之间的差距创造了机会。医疗保健成本对两党来说都是一个真正的预算问题。这意味着双方都无法承受该行业的崩溃，只能对其进行重塑。对于一个有六个月投资视野并能容忍政策噪音的投资者来说，今天的入场点在 11 月可能看起来更好。</p>
</div><h2>Agnostic to Interest Rates? Not Quite.</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对利率无所谓？并非如此。</h2>
</div><p>Interest rates will be on the front burner between now and the midterm elections. The CME FedWatch Tool now puts the odds of an October interest rate hike at around 21%. That’s driving interest in funds such as the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund NYSEARCA: XLF.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在现在到中期选举之间，利率将成为焦点。CME FedWatch 工具现在将 10 月份加息的概率设定为约 21%。这推动了对金融精选行业 SPDR 基金 NYSEARCA: XLF 的兴趣。</p>
</div><p>That follows conventional wisdom: rising rates are good for banks, while falling rates compress margins. That framework is mostly right. Financial stocks aren't truly agnostic, but they're less about the absolute level and more about the spread. As the 10-year Treasury yield curve normalizes, net interest margins should improve for regional lenders, while digital asset integration and agentic AI adoption are opening new avenues for efficiency and revenue for larger institutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这符合传统观点：利率上升对银行有利，而利率下降则压缩利润率。这个框架大体上是正确的。金融股并不完全无关紧要，但它们更关注利差而非绝对水平。随着 10 年期国债收益率曲线的正常化，地区贷款机构的净利差应该会改善，而数字资产整合和智能 AI 的采用为大型机构开辟了新的效率和收入渠道。</p>
</div><p>It also partly explains XLF's rough start in 2026. The fund is trading nearly 13% below its 52-week high, and financials have been the S&amp;P 500's worst-performing sector year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也部分解释了 XLF 在 2026 年的糟糕开局。该基金的交易价格比其 52 周高点低近 13%，而金融股是标准普尔 500 指数年初至今表现最差的行业。</p>
</div><p>That said, financials' sensitivity to policy may matter more than rates as we approach November. From the onset of Trump's second term, expectations ran high for additional financial deregulation (i.e., a further dismantling of Dodd-Frank provisions and the CFPB). A Democratic House takeover puts tighter capital requirements and reinstated consumer protections back on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，金融股对政策的敏感性可能比利率更为重要，尤其是在我们接近 11 月的时候。从特朗普第二任期开始，市场对进一步金融放松监管（即进一步拆解多德 - 弗兰克法案条款和消费者金融保护局）的预期非常高。民主党控制众议院将使更严格的资本要求和恢复消费者保护重新回到议程上。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Lockheed Martin Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在洛克希德马丁吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Lockheed Martin, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你考虑洛克希德马丁之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Lockheed Martin wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只顶级分析师悄悄向客户推荐的股票，建议在更广泛的市场注意到之前买入……而洛克希德马丁并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Lockheed Martin currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然洛克希德马丁目前在分析师中被评为持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

这些股票可能会成为 2026 年中期选举中的最大赢家