<p>风险资产的新一周开始得相对平静，使得英镑从接近 1.3300 的低点反弹至约 1.3380。欧洲股市和美国指数期货在亚洲市场开盘时最初延续了周五的下跌后，表现出回升的迹象。但这种平静是否会持续还有待观察。现在很多事情取决于油价。如果油价回升，我们预计债券市场将面临进一步压力，这将限制风险偏好。简而言之，短期内 GBP/USD 的预测仍然偏向下行，但现在很多因素取决于能源价格、全球债券收益率和投资者的整体情绪。</p>
<h2>美元回落，油价回落</h2>
<p>尽管对英国经济的担忧也日益明显，但主要驱动因素仍然是全球固定收益市场的激进重新定价。今天早上，英镑和其他风险资产设法从低点反弹。除了获利了结外，Tasnim 的一份报告称美国在谈判期间提议暂时豁免对伊朗的石油制裁，这导致油价从早前的高点回落。这是否会导致油价大幅下跌，因为投资者在考虑战争可能结束的情况下进行定价？伊朗坚持认为，解除对伊朗的所有制裁应是美国的承诺之一，但如果得到确认，这将是一个良好的第一步。油价从早前的高点下跌了约 5 美元，这对美元产生了普遍的压力。</p>
<h2>关注债券收益率</h2>
<p>油价的回落是否会转化为收益率的下降还有待观察。上周五，在通胀数据高于预期后，美国国债收益率再次飙升，强化了市场对美联储可能需要维持鹰派基调更长时间的预期。在美国与伊朗的僵局中，原油价格的高企正在给全球市场带来通胀冲击。对于像英镑这样的货币，因其对增长预期和外部风险敏感，环境变得越来越具有挑战性。</p>
<p>本周，美元开始走低。但这是在上周国债收益率再次大幅上升的背景下发生的。基准 10 年期收益率已攀升至 2025 年初以来的最高水平，延续了上周通胀数据公布后上涨的趋势。</p>
<p>除了 CPI 高于预期外，美国的 PPI 通胀也显著上升，进一步加剧了人们对通胀压力比政策制定者预期的要持久得多的担忧。市场越来越质疑美联储在价格压力仍然高企的情况下是否有空间继续讨论最终的放松政策。</p>
<p>结果是债券市场普遍重新定价。投资者要求更高的收益率以补偿通胀风险，这一变化支撑了美元对大多数主要货币的表现。</p>
<p>本周的关注将转向美联储官员的评论以及最新 FOMC 会议纪要的发布。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒定于周二发言，而周三的会议纪要可能会提供更多关于政策制定者如何认真对待近期通胀反弹的线索。</p>
<p>目前，收益率上升和风险偏好减弱的组合继续有利于美元。</p>
<h2>政治不确定性影响 GBP/USD 预测</h2>
<p>由于英国的政治不确定性，英镑最近也承受了压力。在上周大幅下跌后，GBP/USD 与大多数其他风险资产一起反弹。但从这里看，反弹的空间似乎有限，1.3400 可能会提供一些阻力，因为基尔·斯塔默在地方选举结果令人失望后继续面临批评，这使得英国的财政和经济方向再次充满不确定性。在英国经济已经脆弱于高能源成本的情况下，市场对政治不稳定的敏感度正在加大。</p>
<p>考虑到英国对进口能源的依赖，这一风险尤为严重。高企的原油价格和霍尔木兹海峡的持续干扰威胁着加深通胀压力，同时削弱消费者需求和商业信心。在这种背景下，卖方可能会在任何有意义的反弹中重新出现，就像我们今天看到的那样。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.18%20gbpusd%20forecast.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1788" height="766" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.18%20gbpusd%20forecast.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>在 1.3400 以上，下一个关键阻力位在 1.3450，然后是 1.3500。潜在支撑位在 1.3300、1.3250 和 1.3140。</p>
<h2>到目前为止，英国已度过难关</h2>
<p>尽管如此，仍然有一些令人鼓舞的经济信号。国际货币基金组织将其对 2026 年英国经济增长的预测上调至 1%，高于之前的 0.8%。然而，IMF 也警告称，英国仍然特别容易受到中东紧张局势和持续国内不确定性的经济影响。</p>
<p>上周发布的英国 GDP 数据展现了一定的韧性。英国经济在第一季度环比增长 0.6%，高于之前的 0.2% 并符合预期。尽管对能源成本上升和通胀压力的担忧，3 月份的 GDP 也意外地增长了 0.3%。</p>
<p>重要的是，增长相对广泛。服务业、制造业和建筑业都作出了积极贡献，这表明扩张并非仅由临时因素或消费者支出扭曲所驱动。</p>
<h2>关注英国通胀和全球 PMI</h2>
<p>市场现在将注意力转向周三的英国通胀数据。考虑到最近油价的跳涨和全球债券收益率的急剧上升，这一发布可能显得尤为重要。</p>
<p>英国国债收益率在最近几天大幅上升，反映了政治担忧和能源市场引发的更广泛的通胀恐慌。如果英国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据也出现意外上升，投资者可能会开始预期英格兰银行将维持更长时间的紧缩货币政策。</p>
<p>这种情况可能会在英镑、国债和英国股票市场产生新的波动。</p>
<p>本周晚些时候，来自英国、欧元区和美国的快速采购经理人指数（PMI）数据将提供全球经济动能在夏季前的更广泛快照。投资者将密切关注制造业活动是否受到油价的拖累，以及服务业是否能够继续缓解全球经济增长放缓的压力。</p>
<p>对于英镑/美元的预测，短期前景依然困难。油价上涨、顽固的通胀和更高的债券收益率继续支持美元，而英镑则面临国内政治不确定性和对英国外部冲击暴露的日益担忧。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

英镑 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>GBP/USD 的预测显示短期内可能出现下行，受到能源价格和全球债券收益率的影响。英镑略微回升至约 1.3380，但英国的政治不确定性和美国国债收益率的上升带来了挑战。油价有所回落，影响了美元，而国际货币基金组织将英国的增长预测上调至 1%。GBP/USD 的关键阻力位在 1.3400 和 1.3450，支撑位在 1.3300</p>

<p>It has been a much calmer start to the new week for risk assets, allowing sterling to stage a decent recovery from near 1.3300 to around 1.3380. European stock markets and US index futures were firmer, after initially extending Friday’s drop at the Asian open overnight. But whether the calm will last remains to be seen. A lot depends on oil now. Should oil go back up, we’d then expect further pressure on the bond markets, and this should limit risk appetite. In short, the near-term GBP/USD forecast still leans to the downside, but a lot now depend on energy prices, global bond yields and investor sentiment generally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风险资产的新一周开始得相对平静，使得英镑从接近 1.3300 的低点反弹至约 1.3380。欧洲股市和美国指数期货在亚洲市场开盘时最初延续了周五的下跌后，表现出回升的迹象。但这种平静是否会持续还有待观察。现在很多事情取决于油价。如果油价回升，我们预计债券市场将面临进一步压力，这将限制风险偏好。简而言之，短期内 GBP/USD 的预测仍然偏向下行，但现在很多因素取决于能源价格、全球债券收益率和投资者的整体情绪。</p>
</div><h2>Dollar eases as oil falls back</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元回落，油价回落</h2>
</div><p>While concerns surrounding the UK economy are also becoming more visible, the key driver remains the aggressive repricing in global fixed income markets. This morning, though, the pound and other risk assets managed to bounce off their lows. As well as profit-taking, a report by Tasnim that the US had proposed a temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions during the negotiation period caused oil to ease back from its earlier highs. Will this lead to a big drop in oil as investors price in a potential end to the war? Iran insists that lifting all sanctions on Iran should be part of the US's commitments, but this is good first step, if confirmed. Oil fell around $5 from its earlier highs and this weighed on the US dollar across the board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对英国经济的担忧也日益明显，但主要驱动因素仍然是全球固定收益市场的激进重新定价。今天早上，英镑和其他风险资产设法从低点反弹。除了获利了结外，Tasnim 的一份报告称美国在谈判期间提议暂时豁免对伊朗的石油制裁，这导致油价从早前的高点回落。这是否会导致油价大幅下跌，因为投资者在考虑战争可能结束的情况下进行定价？伊朗坚持认为，解除对伊朗的所有制裁应是美国的承诺之一，但如果得到确认，这将是一个良好的第一步。油价从早前的高点下跌了约 5 美元，这对美元产生了普遍的压力。</p>
</div><h2>Keep an eye on bond yields</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关注债券收益率</h2>
</div><p>Whether the easing of oil will translate into lower yields remains to be seen. On Friday, a renewed surge in US Treasury yields after hotter-than-expected inflation data last week reinforced expectations that the Fed may need to maintain a hawkish tone for longer. Elevated crude prices amid the US-Iran stalemate are creating inflationary shock for global markets. For currencies such as sterling, which are sensitive to growth expectations and external risks, the environment is becoming increasingly challenging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价的回落是否会转化为收益率的下降还有待观察。上周五，在通胀数据高于预期后，美国国债收益率再次飙升，强化了市场对美联储可能需要维持鹰派基调更长时间的预期。在美国与伊朗的僵局中，原油价格的高企正在给全球市场带来通胀冲击。对于像英镑这样的货币，因其对增长预期和外部风险敏感，环境变得越来越具有挑战性。</p>
</div><p>This week, the US dollar has started the lower. But this comes on the back of a noticeable rally last week after another sharp rise in Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year yield has meanwhile climbed to its highest level since the opening months of 2025, extending the move higher that followed last week’s inflation figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，美元开始走低。但这是在上周国债收益率再次大幅上升的背景下发生的。基准 10 年期收益率已攀升至 2025 年初以来的最高水平，延续了上周通胀数据公布后上涨的趋势。</p>
</div><p>As well as a hotter CPI, PPI inflation in the US surprised significantly to the upside, fuelling concern that inflationary pressures are proving far more persistent than policymakers had hoped. Markets are increasingly questioning whether the Federal Reserve has room to continue discussing eventual easing while price pressures remain elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 CPI 高于预期外，美国的 PPI 通胀也显著上升，进一步加剧了人们对通胀压力比政策制定者预期的要持久得多的担忧。市场越来越质疑美联储在价格压力仍然高企的情况下是否有空间继续讨论最终的放松政策。</p>
</div><p>The result has been a broad repricing across bond markets. Investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for inflation risks, and that shift is supporting the dollar against most major currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是债券市场普遍重新定价。投资者要求更高的收益率以补偿通胀风险，这一变化支撑了美元对大多数主要货币的表现。</p>
</div><p>Attention this week will turn towards commentary from Federal Reserve officials and the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, while Wednesday’s minutes may provide further clues about how seriously policymakers are taking the recent inflation rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周的关注将转向美联储官员的评论以及最新 FOMC 会议纪要的发布。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒定于周二发言，而周三的会议纪要可能会提供更多关于政策制定者如何认真对待近期通胀反弹的线索。</p>
</div><p>For now, the combination of rising yields and weakening risk appetite continues to favour the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，收益率上升和风险偏好减弱的组合继续有利于美元。</p>
</div><h2>Political uncertainty clouds GBP/USD forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>政治不确定性影响 GBP/USD 预测</h2>
</div><p>Sterling has also been under pressure in recent times because of political uncertainty in the UK. Following last week’s steep decline, the GBP/USD has bounced back along with most other risk assets. But the upside looks limited form here with 1.3400 likely to offer some resistance as Keir Starmer continues to face criticism following disappointing local election results, creating renewed uncertainty around the UK’s fiscal and economic direction. Markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to political instability at a time when the UK economy is already vulnerable to higher energy costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于英国的政治不确定性，英镑最近也承受了压力。在上周大幅下跌后，GBP/USD 与大多数其他风险资产一起反弹。但从这里看，反弹的空间似乎有限，1.3400 可能会提供一些阻力，因为基尔·斯塔默在地方选举结果令人失望后继续面临批评，这使得英国的财政和经济方向再次充满不确定性。在英国经济已经脆弱于高能源成本的情况下，市场对政治不稳定的敏感度正在加大。</p>
</div><p>That risk is particularly acute given Britain’s reliance on imported energy. Elevated crude prices and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz threaten to deepen inflationary pressures while simultaneously weakening consumer demand and business confidence. Against this backdrop, the sellers could come back on any meaningful rebounds like the one we have seen today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到英国对进口能源的依赖，这一风险尤为严重。高企的原油价格和霍尔木兹海峡的持续干扰威胁着加深通胀压力，同时削弱消费者需求和商业信心。在这种背景下，卖方可能会在任何有意义的反弹中重新出现，就像我们今天看到的那样。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.18%20gbpusd%20forecast.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.18%20gbpusd%20forecast.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Above 1.3400, the next key resistance is at 1.3450 and then 1.3500. Potential support is seen at 1.3300, 1.3250 and then 1.3140.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1.3400 以上，下一个关键阻力位在 1.3450，然后是 1.3500。潜在支撑位在 1.3300、1.3250 和 1.3140。</p>
</div><h2>So far, the UK has weathered the storm</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>到目前为止，英国已度过难关</h2>
</div><p>There have nevertheless been some encouraging economic signals. The International Monetary Fund upgraded its UK growth forecast for 2026 to 1%, up from 0.8% previously. However, the IMF also warned that the UK remains particularly exposed to the economic fallout from Middle East tensions and ongoing domestic uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，仍然有一些令人鼓舞的经济信号。国际货币基金组织将其对 2026 年英国经济增长的预测上调至 1%，高于之前的 0.8%。然而，IMF 也警告称，英国仍然特别容易受到中东紧张局势和持续国内不确定性的经济影响。</p>
</div><p>Last week’s release of UK GDP figures offered a degree of resilience. The UK economy expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, accelerating from 0.2% previously and matching expectations. March GDP also surprised positively with a 0.3% monthly increase despite concerns over rising energy costs and inflation pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周发布的英国 GDP 数据展现了一定的韧性。英国经济在第一季度环比增长 0.6%，高于之前的 0.2% 并符合预期。尽管对能源成本上升和通胀压力的担忧，3 月份的 GDP 也意外地增长了 0.3%。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, growth was relatively broad-based. Services, manufacturing and construction all contributed positively, suggesting the expansion was not solely driven by temporary factors or consumer spending distortions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，增长相对广泛。服务业、制造业和建筑业都作出了积极贡献，这表明扩张并非仅由临时因素或消费者支出扭曲所驱动。</p>
</div><h2>Focus turns to UK inflation and global PMIs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关注英国通胀和全球 PMI</h2>
</div><p>Markets will now shift attention towards Wednesday’s UK inflation figures. The release could prove particularly important given the recent jump in oil prices and the sharp rise in global bond yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场现在将注意力转向周三的英国通胀数据。考虑到最近油价的跳涨和全球债券收益率的急剧上升，这一发布可能显得尤为重要。</p>
</div><p>UK gilt yields have moved aggressively higher in recent sessions, reflecting both political concerns and broader inflation fears stemming from energy markets. If UK CPI data also surprises to the upside, investors may begin pricing in a more prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy from the Bank of England.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国国债收益率在最近几天大幅上升，反映了政治担忧和能源市场引发的更广泛的通胀恐慌。如果英国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据也出现意外上升，投资者可能会开始预期英格兰银行将维持更长时间的紧缩货币政策。</p>
</div><p>That scenario could generate fresh volatility across sterling, gilts and UK equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情况可能会在英镑、国债和英国股票市场产生新的波动。</p>
</div><p>Later in the week, flash PMI data from the UK, eurozone and the US will offer a broader snapshot of global economic momentum heading into the summer months. Investors will be watching closely for signs that manufacturing activity is being weighed down by oil. and whether the services sector can continue cushioning the slowdown in global growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周晚些时候，来自英国、欧元区和美国的快速采购经理人指数（PMI）数据将提供全球经济动能在夏季前的更广泛快照。投资者将密切关注制造业活动是否受到油价的拖累，以及服务业是否能够继续缓解全球经济增长放缓的压力。</p>
</div><p>For the GBP/USD forecast, the near-term picture remains difficult. Rising oil prices, stubborn inflation and higher bond yields continue to favour the dollar, while sterling faces the additional burden of domestic political uncertainty and growing concerns over the UK’s exposure to external shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于英镑/美元的预测，短期前景依然困难。油价上涨、顽固的通胀和更高的债券收益率继续支持美元，而英镑则面临国内政治不确定性和对英国外部冲击暴露的日益担忧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-GBP-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
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英镑/美元预测：本周的货币对 |2026年5月18日