<p>上周，加元兑美元（USDCAD）上涨并突破了从 3 月 31 日高点以来趋势性下跌的 50% 中点，该关键水平为 1.37576。周五，该货币对上涨至 1.37665 后回落，最终收盘回到中点水平以下——这表明买方无法维持在重要技术指标之上的动能。</p>
<p>在新交易周开始时，买方在亚太时段再次尝试上涨，短暂回升至 50% 回撤水平之上。然而，反弹再次在周五的高点前停滞，最高接近 1.3763 后又回落。市场现在已经两次测试了 50% 中点以上的上行空间，而这两次尝试都以失败告终。这种重复的拒绝使得市场的焦点集中在卖方捍卫该水平的能力上。</p>
<p>下行走势使该货币对跌至 1.3733。尽管价格仍相对接近 50% 回撤水平，但现在也接近由 100 日移动平均线（1.3720）和上升的 100 小时移动平均线（1.3722）定义的重要支撑区。这些水平代表了一个重要的短期战场。如果卖方能够将价格压低至该支撑区以下并保持在其下方，焦点将转向下一个关键目标区域，位于 1.3708 至 1.37149 之间——这里是 38.2% 回撤位和之前的波动区顶部。如果跌破这些水平，将使技术偏向卖方，并增加下行动能。</p>
<p>也就是说，最近的回调可能仅仅是 5 月 1 日低点强劲反弹后的暂停。买方仍然非常活跃，但在两次未能突破 50% 回撤水平后，技术路线图变得更加清晰：买方现在需要突破并保持在 1.37576 之上，以重新获得控制权并建立上行动能。</p>
<p>正如所说：“第一次被愚弄是你的错，第二次被愚弄是我的错。” 在两次未能突破中点水平后，交易者不太可能在没有持续买入动能的证明下盲目追逐上涨。随着新交易周的到来，战斗的界限已经清晰划定。</p>

加元 做多 - CurrencyShares

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>USDCAD 在未能维持在 50% 回撤位 1.37576 之上后回落。经过两次未能突破这一关键水平的尝试后，该货币对目前正在测试接近 100 日和 100 小时移动平均线的支撑位，分别为 1.3720 和 1.3722。如果跌破这些水平，关注点可能会转向 1.3708 到 1.37149 之间的下一个目标区域，而买方需要重新控制在 1.37576 之上，以建立上行动能</p>

<p>The USDCAD pushed up to and through the 50% midpoint of the trend-like decline from the March 31 high last week, with that key level coming in at 1.37576. On Friday, the pair extended to 1.37665 before rotating lower and ultimately closing back below the midpoint level — a sign that buyers could not sustain momentum above an important technical barometer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，加元兑美元（USDCAD）上涨并突破了从 3 月 31 日高点以来趋势性下跌的 50% 中点，该关键水平为 1.37576。周五，该货币对上涨至 1.37665 后回落，最终收盘回到中点水平以下——这表明买方无法维持在重要技术指标之上的动能。</p>
</div><p>At the start of the new trading week, buyers made another run higher during the Asia-Pacific session, briefly moving back above the 50% retracement level. However, the rally once again stalled ahead of Friday’s high, peaking near 1.3763 before rotating back to the downside. The market has now tested the upside above the 50% midpoint on two separate occasions, and both attempts have failed. That repeated rejection keeps the focus squarely on the sellers’ ability to defend the level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新交易周开始时，买方在亚太时段再次尝试上涨，短暂回升至 50% 回撤水平之上。然而，反弹再次在周五的高点前停滞，最高接近 1.3763 后又回落。市场现在已经两次测试了 50% 中点以上的上行空间，而这两次尝试都以失败告终。这种重复的拒绝使得市场的焦点集中在卖方捍卫该水平的能力上。</p>
</div><p>The move lower has since taken the pair down toward 1.3733. While the price remains relatively close to the 50% retracement level, it is also now approaching an important support cluster defined by the 100-day moving average at 1.3720 and the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3722. Those levels represent an important near-term battleground. If sellers can push below that support zone and keep the price below it, the focus would then shift toward the next key target area between 1.3708 and 1.37149 — home to the 38.2% retracement and a prior swing-area ceiling. A break below those levels would tilt the technical bias back in favor of the sellers and increase downside momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下行走势使该货币对跌至 1.3733。尽管价格仍相对接近 50% 回撤水平，但现在也接近由 100 日移动平均线（1.3720）和上升的 100 小时移动平均线（1.3722）定义的重要支撑区。这些水平代表了一个重要的短期战场。如果卖方能够将价格压低至该支撑区以下并保持在其下方，焦点将转向下一个关键目标区域，位于 1.3708 至 1.37149 之间——这里是 38.2% 回撤位和之前的波动区顶部。如果跌破这些水平，将使技术偏向卖方，并增加下行动能。</p>
</div><p>That said, the recent pullback may simply represent a pause after the strong recovery rally from the May 1 low. Buyers are still very much in the game, but after two failed attempts above the 50% retracement level, the technical roadmap has become clearer: buyers now need to get and stay above 1.37576 to regain control and build upside momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，最近的回调可能仅仅是 5 月 1 日低点强劲反弹后的暂停。买方仍然非常活跃，但在两次未能突破 50% 回撤水平后，技术路线图变得更加清晰：买方现在需要突破并保持在 1.37576 之上，以重新获得控制权并建立上行动能。</p>
</div><p>As the saying goes: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” After two failed breaks above the midpoint level, traders are less likely to blindly chase the upside without proof of sustained buying momentum. The battle lines are now clearly drawn heading into the new trading week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如所说：“第一次被愚弄是你的错，第二次被愚弄是我的错。” 在两次未能突破中点水平后，交易者不太可能在没有持续买入动能的证明下盲目追逐上涨。随着新交易周的到来，战斗的界限已经清晰划定。</p>
</div>

USDCAD 汇率回撤至均线支撑位。买家会守住这个支撑位吗？