<p><strong>利奥波德·阿申布伦纳</strong> 的情境意识基金最新的 13F 文件显示，该基金已开设了约 85 亿美元名义价值的看跌期权，针对 <strong>英伟达公司</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA) 及其他芯片公司，仅在英伟达发布财报前两天。</p>
<p>该 13F 文件于周五向 SEC 提交，显示英伟达的新看跌头寸为 15.7 亿美元，<strong>VanEck 半导体 ETF</strong> (NASDAQ: SMH) 为 20.4 亿美元，<strong>甲骨文公司</strong> (NYSE: ORCL) 为 10.7 亿美元，<strong>博通公司</strong> (NASDAQ: AVGO) 为 10.1 亿美元，<strong>超微半导体公司</strong> (NASDAQ: AMD) 为 9.69 亿美元。</p>
<p>其他看跌期权涵盖 ASML、台积电、英特尔和印度信息技术公司。</p>
<p>这些看跌期权的名义价值合计超过该基金报告的 13F 总值的 60%。</p>
<h2>停止相信芯片的牛市</h2>
<p>阿申布伦纳是前 OpenAI 超级对齐研究员，他的 165 页《情境意识》论文认为 AGI 比市场预期的更近，这使他成为该领域的投资者。</p>
<p>他的基金在 2025 年迅速膨胀至超过 15 亿美元，并在 2026 年 2 月将其披露的股票投资组合扩大至 55 亿美元，基于该 理论。现在他利用这一理论做空让他成名的公司。</p>
<p>该文件似乎暗示阿申布伦纳认为 AI 交易正在从芯片制造商向为其提供电力和容量的层面转移。</p>
<p>燃料电池制造商 <strong>Bloom Energy Corp.</strong> (NYSE: BE) 是最大的多头 头寸，金额为 8.79 亿美元，此外还有一篮子比特币矿工填补多头投资组合，重新定位为 AI 托管，以利用其允许的电网容量。芯片看跌期权是同一交易的另一面。</p>
<p>芯片看跌期权并不统一。在 <strong>美光科技公司</strong> (NASDAQ: MU) 和台积电上，该基金还分别购买了价值 4.22 亿美元和 3.55 亿美元的看涨期权，暗示对内存和代工的特定走势下注，而不是单纯的方向性做空。</p>
<h2>预测市场仍然看好英伟达</h2>
<p>Polymarket 上的散户交易者并未定价相同的风险。</p>
<p>英伟达在 2026 年结束时以市值成为全球最大公司的概率为 65%，而 “AI 泡沫在 2026 年底破裂” 的合约仅交易在 23%。该合约的一个触发因素是英伟达从历史高点下跌 50%。</p>
<p>华尔街与 Polymarket 的共识一致。NVDA 获得 42 位分析师中 40 位的强烈买入共识评级，Cantor Fitzgerald、美国银行和瑞银在过去一周均在财报前上调了目标价。英伟达将在周三收盘后发布 2024 财年第一季度财报。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

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<p>Leopold Aschenbrenner 的情境意识基金在财报发布前，已对英伟达和其他芯片公司开设了价值 85 亿美元的卖出期权。该基金的 13F 文件显示出对英伟达、甲骨文和博通的显著空头头寸，表明其关注点已从芯片制造商转向电力和容量层。尽管如此，散户交易者对英伟达的未来仍持乐观态度，分析师在财报发布前对其给予了强烈的共识评级</p>

<p><strong>Leopold Aschenbrenner’s</strong> Situational Awareness fund’s latest 13F filing shows it has opened put options representing roughly $8.5 billion in notional value against <strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA) and the rest of the chip complex, just two days before Nvidia reports earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>利奥波德·阿申布伦纳</strong> 的情境意识基金最新的 13F 文件显示，该基金已开设了约 85 亿美元名义价值的看跌期权，针对 <strong>英伟达公司</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA) 及其他芯片公司，仅在英伟达发布财报前两天。</p>
</div><p>The 13F, filed Friday with the SEC, shows new put positions of $1.57 billion on Nvidia, $2.04 billion on the <strong>VanEck Semiconductor ETF</strong> (NASDAQ: SMH), $1.07 billion on <strong>Oracle Corp.</strong> (NYSE: ORCL), $1.01 billion on <strong>Broadcom Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AVGO) and $969 million on <strong>Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AMD).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该 13F 文件于周五向 SEC 提交，显示英伟达的新看跌头寸为 15.7 亿美元，<strong>VanEck 半导体 ETF</strong> (NASDAQ: SMH) 为 20.4 亿美元，<strong>甲骨文公司</strong> (NYSE: ORCL) 为 10.7 亿美元，<strong>博通公司</strong> (NASDAQ: AVGO) 为 10.1 亿美元，<strong>超微半导体公司</strong> (NASDAQ: AMD) 为 9.69 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Other puts cover ASML, Taiwan Semi, Intel and Infosys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他看跌期权涵盖 ASML、台积电、英特尔和印度信息技术公司。</p>
</div><p>Combined, the notional value of these puts makes up over 60% of the fund’s total reported 13F value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些看跌期权的名义价值合计超过该基金报告的 13F 总值的 60%。</p>
</div><h2>The Bull Who Stopped Believing In Chips</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>停止相信芯片的牛市</h2>
</div><p>Aschenbrenner is the former OpenAI Superalignment researcher whose 165-page “Situational Awareness” essay argued AGI was closer than the market thought and turned him into an investor in the space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿申布伦纳是前 OpenAI 超级对齐研究员，他的 165 页《情境意识》论文认为 AGI 比市场预期的更近，这使他成为该领域的投资者。</p>
</div><p>His fund quickly swelled past $1.5 billion in 2025 and grew its disclosed equity book to $5.5 billion by February 2026 on the back of that thesis. Now he has used it to short the company that made him famous.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的基金在 2025 年迅速膨胀至超过 15 亿美元，并在 2026 年 2 月将其披露的股票投资组合扩大至 55 亿美元，基于该 理论。现在他利用这一理论做空让他成名的公司。</p>
</div><p>The filing seems to imply Aschenbrenner thinks the AI trade is moving downstream from the chipmakers to the power and capacity layer that feeds them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该文件似乎暗示阿申布伦纳认为 AI 交易正在从芯片制造商向为其提供电力和容量的层面转移。</p>
</div><p>Fuel cell maker <strong>Bloom Energy Corp.</strong> (NYSE: BE) is the largest long position at $879 million, with a basket of Bitcoin miners filling out the long book, repurposed as AI hosting plays for their permitted gigawatts of grid capacity. The chip puts are the other side of the same trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>燃料电池制造商 <strong>Bloom Energy Corp.</strong> (NYSE: BE) 是最大的多头 头寸，金额为 8.79 亿美元，此外还有一篮子比特币矿工填补多头投资组合，重新定位为 AI 托管，以利用其允许的电网容量。芯片看跌期权是同一交易的另一面。</p>
</div><p>The chip puts aren’t uniform. On <strong>Micron Technology Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: MU) and Taiwan Semi, the fund also bought calls worth $422 million and $355 million respectively, suggesting a bet on a move in memory and foundry specifically rather than a clean directional short.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芯片看跌期权并不统一。在 <strong>美光科技公司</strong> (NASDAQ: MU) 和台积电上，该基金还分别购买了价值 4.22 亿美元和 3.55 亿美元的看涨期权，暗示对内存和代工的特定走势下注，而不是单纯的方向性做空。</p>
</div><h2>Prediction Markets Are Still Long Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预测市场仍然看好英伟达</h2>
</div><p>Retail traders on Polymarket are not pricing the same risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 上的散户交易者并未定价相同的风险。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia sits at 65% to finish 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap, and the “AI bubble burst by end of 2026” contract trades at just 23%. One of the triggers for that contract is Nvidia falling 50% off its all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在 2026 年结束时以市值成为全球最大公司的概率为 65%，而 “AI 泡沫在 2026 年底破裂” 的合约仅交易在 23%。该合约的一个触发因素是英伟达从历史高点下跌 50%。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street is aligned with the Polymarket consensus. NVDA holds a Strong Buy consensus rating from 40 of 42 analysts, with Cantor Fitzgerald, Bank of America and UBS all raising price targets ahead of earnings in the past week. Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 earnings Wednesday after the close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街与 Polymarket 的共识一致。NVDA 获得 42 位分析师中 40 位的强烈买入共识评级，Cantor Fitzgerald、美国银行和瑞银在过去一周均在财报前上调了目标价。英伟达将在周三收盘后发布 2024 财年第一季度财报。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Why AI Wunderkind Leopold Aschenbrenner Started Betting Against Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom

- Leopold Aschenbrenner 的基金最新的 13F 申报显示其对 Nvidia 的期权价值约为 85 亿美元。  
- 目前持有 Nvidia、VanEck 半导体 ETF 等的看跌期权共计超过 60% 的基金报告价值。  
- 预测市场显示，Nvidia 被认为将在 2026 年结束时成为市值最大的公司。

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为什么人工智能奇才 Leopold Aschenbrenner 开始做空英伟达、甲骨文和博通