<p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
<p>“我很难想象市场会对此置之不理，” Evercore 创始人 Roger Altman 表示。</p>
<p>Evercore 创始人 Roger Altman 在周一接受了 CNBC 的采访。</p>
<p>“我认为目前的大问题是……我们是否正处于油市的转折点，以及在接下来的两周内，油价是否会大幅上涨。”</p>
<p>这是 Evercore 的创始人兼高级主席 Roger Altman 的警告，他表示油价可能很快会给迄今为止表现出惊人韧性的股市带来更多问题。</p>
<p>Altman 在周一的 CNBC 采访中表示，原油价格的急剧上涨可能会通过引发 “本十年第二次大通胀冲击（继 COVID 之后）” 来破坏市场，尤其是在油价攀升至每桶 150 美元或更高的情况下。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，Altman 表示：“我很难想象市场会对此置之不理，” 并补充道：“但也许他们会。”</p>
<p>在唐纳德·特朗普总统周日发文称 “时间在流逝” 后，油价在周一上涨。他在 Truth Social 上表示，伊朗 “最好快点行动，否则他们将不复存在。” 根据 FactSet 的数据，布伦特原油（BRN00）周一上涨 1.4%，超过每桶 110 美元，而西德克萨斯中质原油（CL.1）上涨 1.3%，突破每桶 106 美元。</p>
<p>到目前为止，股市对油价上涨表现得相对从容。标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）和纳斯达克综合指数（COMP）在上周仍处于历史高位，投资者押注企业盈利、人工智能支出和依然强劲的经济能够继续支撑市场。但持续的油价冲击可能会考验这种观点。</p>
<p>尽管投资者在很大程度上将最新的能源驱动的通胀压力视为暂时，但 Evercore 的 Altman 表示，曾经帮助吸收失去的石油供应冲击的缓冲措施可能正在减弱。</p>
<p>他指出，每天有 1200 万到 1400 万桶的石油被排除在市场之外，而全球日均消费量约为 1.02 亿桶。到目前为止，影响已被储存的石油库存、已经在海上的油轮、战略石油储备的释放以及中国的大量库存所缓解。换句话说，市场有备用供应可供调配。</p>
<p>但他表示，这些缓冲措施已经减少，可能很快失去缓冲市场免受供应短缺全面影响的能力。</p>
<p>这将使 Altman 所描述的美国经济的强劲背景变得复杂。Altman 表示，在面临油价上涨的潜在冲击之前，市场和经济的条件看起来非常强劲，指出企业利润、消费者韧性和商业投资，其中大部分投资集中在人工智能上，但并不限于此。</p>
<p>问题在于，油价现在可能会压倒这些积极因素，Altman 表示。</p>
<p>根据 Altman 的说法，原油已成为市场的 “关键”。如果美国与伊朗达成某种协议，油价在年底前回落至每桶 70 至 80 美元，经济和市场将 “处于良好状态”。</p>
<p>“但目前看起来正好相反，这很危险，” Altman 补充道。</p>
<p>-Frances Yue</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>05-18-26 1210ET</p>

西方石油

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

<p>Evercore 创始人罗杰·阿尔特曼警告称，石油市场可能正处于一个临界点，这可能导致价格大幅上涨，从而使股市不稳定。他强调，原油价格上涨至每桶 150 美元可能会引发 COVID 后的第二次通胀冲击。尽管股票市场保持韧性，但对石油供应短缺的缓冲减少可能会使经济前景复杂化，而经济前景本来因企业利润和消费者韧性而显得强劲</p>

<p>By Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>'I would have a hard time seeing markets just shrugging that off', says Evercore founder Roger Altman</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我很难想象市场会对此置之不理，” Evercore 创始人 Roger Altman 表示。</p>
</div><p>Evercore founder Roger Altman was interviewed on CNBC on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore 创始人 Roger Altman 在周一接受了 CNBC 的采访。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think the big question of the moment ... is whether we're now at a tipping point in terms of the oil market and whether we're about to see over the next two weeks, really substantially higher oil prices.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为目前的大问题是……我们是否正处于油市的转折点，以及在接下来的两周内，油价是否会大幅上涨。”</p>
</div><p>That was Roger Altman, founder and senior chairman of Wall Street investment bank Evercore, warning that oil prices could soon create more problems for a stock market that has proved remarkably resilient so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是 Evercore 的创始人兼高级主席 Roger Altman 的警告，他表示油价可能很快会给迄今为止表现出惊人韧性的股市带来更多问题。</p>
</div><p>Altman said in a CNBC interview on Monday that a sharp rise in crude could destabilize markets by triggering &#34;the second big inflation shock of this decade after COVID,&#34; especially if oil prices climb toward $150 a barrel or higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Altman 在周一的 CNBC 采访中表示，原油价格的急剧上涨可能会通过引发 “本十年第二次大通胀冲击（继 COVID 之后）” 来破坏市场，尤其是在油价攀升至每桶 150 美元或更高的情况下。</p>
</div><p>In that case, &#34;I would have a hard time seeing markets just shrugging that off,&#34; Altman said, adding: &#34;But maybe they will.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，Altman 表示：“我很难想象市场会对此置之不理，” 并补充道：“但也许他们会。”</p>
</div><p>Oil prices pushed higher on Monday after President Donald Trump wrote on Sunday that the &#34;Clock is Ticking&#34; for Iran. Iran had &#34;better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them,&#34; he said on Truth Social then. Brent crude oil (BRN00) rose 1.4% to above $110 a barrel on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate crude (CL.1) went up 1.3% passing $106 a barrel, according to FactSet data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在唐纳德·特朗普总统周日发文称 “时间在流逝” 后，油价在周一上涨。他在 Truth Social 上表示，伊朗 “最好快点行动，否则他们将不复存在。” 根据 FactSet 的数据，布伦特原油（BRN00）周一上涨 1.4%，超过每桶 110 美元，而西德克萨斯中质原油（CL.1）上涨 1.3%，突破每桶 106 美元。</p>
</div><p>Stocks have taken higher oil prices in stride so far. With the S&amp;P 500 SPX and Nasdaq composite COMP trading in record territory as recently as last week, investors are betting that corporate earnings, AI spending and a still-solid economy can continue to support the market. But a sustained oil-price shock could test that view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，股市对油价上涨表现得相对从容。标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）和纳斯达克综合指数（COMP）在上周仍处于历史高位，投资者押注企业盈利、人工智能支出和依然强劲的经济能够继续支撑市场。但持续的油价冲击可能会考验这种观点。</p>
</div><p>While investors have largely treated the latest energy-driven inflation pressures as temporary, the buffers that had helped absorb the shock from lost oil supply may be fading, Evercore's Altman said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管投资者在很大程度上将最新的能源驱动的通胀压力视为暂时，但 Evercore 的 Altman 表示，曾经帮助吸收失去的石油供应冲击的缓冲措施可能正在减弱。</p>
</div><p>He noted that 12 million to 14 million barrels a day have been taken out of the oil market, compared with the average daily global consumption of about 102 million barrels. So far, the impact has been softened by stored oil inventories, tankers already at sea, releases from strategic petroleum reserves and large inventories in China. In other words, the market has had backup supplies to draw on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，每天有 1200 万到 1400 万桶的石油被排除在市场之外，而全球日均消费量约为 1.02 亿桶。到目前为止，影响已被储存的石油库存、已经在海上的油轮、战略石油储备的释放以及中国的大量库存所缓解。换句话说，市场有备用供应可供调配。</p>
</div><p>But those buffers have been reduced, he said, and may soon lose their ability to cushion the market from the full impact of the supply shortfall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他表示，这些缓冲措施已经减少，可能很快失去缓冲市场免受供应短缺全面影响的能力。</p>
</div><p>It would complicate what Altman described as an otherwise strong backdrop for the U.S. economy. Altman said the conditions for markets and the economy looked very strong before the potential hit from higher oil prices, pointing to corporate profits, consumer resilience, and business investment, with much of that investment centered on AI, but not limited to AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将使 Altman 所描述的美国经济的强劲背景变得复杂。Altman 表示，在面临油价上涨的潜在冲击之前，市场和经济的条件看起来非常强劲，指出企业利润、消费者韧性和商业投资，其中大部分投资集中在人工智能上，但并不限于此。</p>
</div><p>The problem is that oil may now overwhelm those positives, Altman said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于，油价现在可能会压倒这些积极因素，Altman 表示。</p>
</div><p>Crude has become the &#34;linchpin&#34; for markets, according to Altman. If the U.S. were to reach some accommodation with Iran and oil prices fell back toward $70 to $80 a barrel by the end of the year, the economy and markets would be &#34;in good shape,&#34; he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Altman 的说法，原油已成为市场的 “关键”。如果美国与伊朗达成某种协议，油价在年底前回落至每桶 70 至 80 美元，经济和市场将 “处于良好状态”。</p>
</div><p>&#34;But at the moment it looks like the opposite is going to happen, and that's risky,&#34; Altman added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“但目前看起来正好相反，这很危险，” Altman 补充道。</p>
</div><p>-Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>05-18-26 1210ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-18-26 1210ET</p>
</div>

The oil market is reaching a 'tipping point' that could create problems for stocks, according to this Wall Street legend

Dow Jones

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

能源业 ETF - SPDR

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

Evercore

辉盛研究系统

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克综合指数

根据这位华尔街传奇人物的说法，石油市场正在接近一个可能会给股票市场带来问题的'临界点'