<h2><strong>加元技术预测：USD/CAD 每周交易水平</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>USD/CAD 正在尝试保持在一个关键突破区间之上，此前从四月低点反弹。</li>
<li>价格仍然被困在一个主要的支点附近，动能难以确认上涨。</li>
<li>如果价格再次跌破之前的阻力，将威胁到虚假突破的情景，并可能重新走低。</li>
<li>持续的上涨将支持更广泛的恢复，朝向主要阻力水平。</li>
<li>阻力 1.3788-1.3808（关键），~1.39，1.3944 – 支持 1.3725/33，1.3617（关键），1.3563</li>
</ul>
<p>USD/CAD 正在尝试在一个主要支点区间之上稳定，此前从多周低点反弹，价格走势现在正在测试突破是否能在每周收盘时保持。尽管这一走势改善了短期技术前景，但动能仍然不够令人信服，增加了虚假突破的风险。现在的焦点转向买家是否能够在支撑位之上维持控制，或者更广泛的下行趋势是否会重新显现。USD/CAD 每周技术图表上的战斗线已划定。</p>
<p>查看我最新的 <strong>每周策略网络研讨会</strong>，深入分析这个加元设置及更多内容。<strong>每周一上午 8:30（东部时间）直播</strong>。</p>
<h3><strong>加元价格图表 – USD/CAD 每周</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133822-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="634" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133822-3.png"/></p>
<p><em>图表由</em> <em>Michael Boutros，资深技术策略师；</em> <em>USD/CAD 在 TradingView 上</em></p>
<p><strong>技术展望：</strong> 在上个月的 <strong>加元技术预测</strong> 中，我们指出 USD/CAD 正在 “在经历了三周的下跌后测试主要支撑，面临价格反转的风险。从交易的角度来看，如果价格在这一波段上升，损失需要限制在本周的低点，收盘价需高于 1.3733，以暗示更显著的中期低点已形成。” USD/CAD 在那一周跌入年度低点收盘，随后在五月开盘时反弹，价格在上周标记了一个关键支点区间之上的每周收盘。是否形成了更显著的低点？</p>
<p>关注的支点区间是 <strong>1.3725/33</strong>- 这是一个由年度开盘价、二月份高点和 2025 年低周收盘（LWC）定义的区域。尽管上周收盘高于该区间确实为进一步上涨打开了大门，但每周动能仍低于 50，且多头尚未提供令人信服的推动力。尽管如此，每周开盘区间正在该标记上方形成，未来几天的突破可能会提供指导。</p>
<p>初步的每周阻力关注 52 周移动平均线和三月下跌的 61.8% 回撤位 <strong>1.3788-1.3808</strong>。若突破/每周收盘高于该阈值，将需要推动下一轮主要上涨，目标指向 2025 年趋势线（目前约在 <strong>1.39</strong> 附近），并受到年度高周收盘（HWC）<strong>1.3944</strong> 和 2022 年波动高点 <strong>1.3978</strong> 的支持。这两个水平可能会出现顶部疲软/价格反转，若达到请关注更大的反应。</p>
<p>若回落至年度开盘价以下，将威胁到虚假突破的情景，每周支撑目标保持不变，位于年度低周收盘（LWC）<strong>1.3617</strong> 和 2026 年低收盘 <strong>1.3563</strong>。若跌破该阈值，将威胁到年度低点的重新测试，后续支撑见于 2024 年八月低收盘 <strong>1.3494</strong> 和 <strong>1.3360/66</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p><strong>底线：</strong> USD/CAD 正在尝试验证突破关键支点区间，焦点在于每周收盘是否在 1.3425/33 之上。从交易的角度来看，若价格在这一波段上升，损失需限制在 1.3617，最终收盘高于 1.3808 将是推动下一轮主要上涨所需。</p>
<p>本周经济日历相对清淡，加拿大 CPI 明天将成为焦点。本周伊朗战争谈判将再次成为中心焦点。霍尔木兹海峡的长期封锁继续对能源行业施加压力，解决方案进展甚微。市场开始定价长期冲突，联邦基金期货现在将 12 月加息的概率定为 50/50。这一利率预期的变化有利于美元，而持续的高能源价格可能会迫使中央银行在今年更积极地应对上升的通胀。请关注战争头条，并观察每周收盘以获取指导。查看我最新的 <strong>加元短期展望</strong>，以更详细地了解近期 USD/CAD 技术交易水平。</p>
<h3><strong>美国/加拿大经济数据发布</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133832-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="727" height="662" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133832-4.png"/></p>
<p><strong>经济日历</strong> <strong>-</strong> 最新经济动态和即将到来的事件风险。</p>
<h3><strong>活跃的每周技术图表</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>欧元 (EUR/USD)</li>
<li>美元指数 (DXY)</li>
<li>黄金 (XAU/USD)</li>
<li>日元 (USD/JPY)</li>
<li>澳元 (AUD/USD)</li>
<li>瑞士法郎 (USD/CHF)</li>
<li>比特币 (BTC/USD)</li>
<li>英镑 (GBP/USD)</li>
<li>标普 500，纳斯达克，道琼斯</li>
</ul>
<p>--- 由 Michael Boutros 撰写，资深技术策略师</p>
<p>在 X 上关注 Michael <strong>@MBForex</strong></p>

加元 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>美元/加元正在测试一个关键的突破区间，此前从四月的低点反弹，价格走势显示出潜在的虚假突破风险。动能依然疲弱，令人担忧能否在支撑位上方维持涨幅。需要收盘价高于 1.3808 才能实现显著上涨，而跌破 1.3617 可能导致重新测试年度低点。经济日历较为清淡，加拿大 CPI 数据和持续的地缘政治紧张局势影响市场情绪</p>

<h2><strong>Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>加元技术预测：USD/CAD 每周交易水平</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li>USD/CAD is attempting to hold above a key breakout zone after rebounding from April low.</li>
<li>Price remains trapped near a major pivot as momentum struggles to confirm the advance.</li>
<li>A move back below former resistance would threaten a false-break scenario and renewed downside.</li>
<li>A sustained push higher would support a broader recovery toward major resistance levels.</li>
<li>Resistance 1.3788-1.3808 (key), ~1.39, 1.3944 – Support 1.3725/33, 1.3617 (key), 1.3563</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>USD/CAD 正在尝试保持在一个关键突破区间之上，此前从四月低点反弹。</li>
<li>价格仍然被困在一个主要的支点附近，动能难以确认上涨。</li>
<li>如果价格再次跌破之前的阻力，将威胁到虚假突破的情景，并可能重新走低。</li>
<li>持续的上涨将支持更广泛的恢复，朝向主要阻力水平。</li>
<li>阻力 1.3788-1.3808（关键），~1.39，1.3944 – 支持 1.3725/33，1.3617（关键），1.3563</li>
</ul>
</div><p>USD/CAD is attempting to stabilize above a major pivot zone after rebounding from multi-week lows, with price action now testing whether the breakout can hold into the weekly close. While the move has improved the near-term technical outlook, momentum remains unconvincing, raising the risk of a false break scenario. The focus now shifts to whether buyers can sustain control above support or if the broader downtrend begins to reassert itself. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>USD/CAD 正在尝试在一个主要支点区间之上稳定，此前从多周低点反弹，价格走势现在正在测试突破是否能在每周收盘时保持。尽管这一走势改善了短期技术前景，但动能仍然不够令人信服，增加了虚假突破的风险。现在的焦点转向买家是否能够在支撑位之上维持控制，或者更广泛的下行趋势是否会重新显现。USD/CAD 每周技术图表上的战斗线已划定。</p>
</div><p>Review my latest <strong>Weekly Strategy Webinar</strong> for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. <strong>Join live</strong> on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看我最新的 <strong>每周策略网络研讨会</strong>，深入分析这个加元设置及更多内容。<strong>每周一上午 8:30（东部时间）直播</strong>。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>加元价格图表 – USD/CAD 每周</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133822-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133822-3.png"/></p>
<p><em>Chart Prepared by</em> <em>Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist;</em> <em>USD/CAD on TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图表由</em> <em>Michael Boutros，资深技术策略师；</em> <em>USD/CAD 在 TradingView 上</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Technical Outlook:</strong> In last month’s <strong>Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast</strong> we noted that USD/CAD was, “testing major support here on the back of a three-week selloff from the yearly high- risk for price inflection ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on <em>this</em> stretch with a close above 1.3733 needed to suggest a more significant medium-term low is in place.” USD/CAD dropped into the yearly low-close that week before rebounding into the May open with price marking a weekly close above a key pivot zone last week. Is a more significant low in place?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>技术展望：</strong> 在上个月的 <strong>加元技术预测</strong> 中，我们指出 USD/CAD 正在 “在经历了三周的下跌后测试主要支撑，面临价格反转的风险。从交易的角度来看，如果价格在这一波段上升，损失需要限制在本周的低点，收盘价需高于 1.3733，以暗示更显著的中期低点已形成。” USD/CAD 在那一周跌入年度低点收盘，随后在五月开盘时反弹，价格在上周标记了一个关键支点区间之上的每周收盘。是否形成了更显著的低点？</p>
</div><p>The pivot zone in focus is <strong>1.3725/33</strong>- a region defined by the objective yearly open, the February high, and the 2025 low-week close (LWC). While a close above this zone last week dose open the door to further gains, weekly momentum remains sub-fifty and the bulls have not yet offered a convincing push. That said, the weekly opening-range is taking shape just above this mark and a breakout in the days ahead may offer guidance here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关注的支点区间是 <strong>1.3725/33</strong>- 这是一个由年度开盘价、二月份高点和 2025 年低周收盘（LWC）定义的区域。尽管上周收盘高于该区间确实为进一步上涨打开了大门，但每周动能仍低于 50，且多头尚未提供令人信服的推动力。尽管如此，每周开盘区间正在该标记上方形成，未来几天的突破可能会提供指导。</p>
</div><p>Initial weekly resistance is eyed at the 52-week moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the March decline at <strong>1.3788-1.3808</strong>. A topside breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards the 2025 trendline (currently near ~ <strong>1.39</strong>) backed by the yearly high-week close (HWC) at <strong>1.3944</strong> and the 2022 swing high at <strong>1.3978</strong>. Both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初步的每周阻力关注 52 周移动平均线和三月下跌的 61.8% 回撤位 <strong>1.3788-1.3808</strong>。若突破/每周收盘高于该阈值，将需要推动下一轮主要上涨，目标指向 2025 年趋势线（目前约在 <strong>1.39</strong> 附近），并受到年度高周收盘（HWC）<strong>1.3944</strong> 和 2022 年波动高点 <strong>1.3978</strong> 的支持。这两个水平可能会出现顶部疲软/价格反转，若达到请关注更大的反应。</p>
</div><p>A pivot back below the yearly open would threaten a false break scenario with weekly support targets unchanged at the yearly low-week close (LWC) at <strong>1.3617</strong> and the 2026 low close at <strong>1.3563</strong>. Losses below this threshold would threaten a retest of the yearly lows with subsequent support seen at the 2024 August low close at <strong>1.3494</strong> and <strong>1.3360/66</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>若回落至年度开盘价以下，将威胁到虚假突破的情景，每周支撑目标保持不变，位于年度低周收盘（LWC）<strong>1.3617</strong> 和 2026 年低收盘 <strong>1.3563</strong>。若跌破该阈值，将威胁到年度低点的重新测试，后续支撑见于 2024 年八月低收盘 <strong>1.3494</strong> 和 <strong>1.3360/66</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p><strong>Bottom line:</strong> USD/CAD is attempting to validate a break above a key pivot zone, and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to 1.3425/33. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3617 IF price is heading higher on <em>this</em> stretch with a close above 1.3808 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>底线：</strong> USD/CAD 正在尝试验证突破关键支点区间，焦点在于每周收盘是否在 1.3425/33 之上。从交易的角度来看，若价格在这一波段上升，损失需限制在 1.3617，最终收盘高于 1.3808 将是推动下一轮主要上涨所需。</p>
</div><p>The economic calendar is rather light this week with Canada CPI tomorrow headlining the docket. The Iranian war negotiations will be central focus again this week. The prolonged blockade of the Hormuz Strait has continued to squeeze the energy sector with little progress made on a resolution. Markets are beginning to price in a protracted conflict with Fed Fund Futures now putting a December rate hike at 50/50. This shift in interest rate expectations has favored the US Dollar and persistent high energy prices may pressure the central bank to address rising inflation this year more aggressively. Keep an eye on the war headlines and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest <strong>Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook</strong> for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周经济日历相对清淡，加拿大 CPI 明天将成为焦点。本周伊朗战争谈判将再次成为中心焦点。霍尔木兹海峡的长期封锁继续对能源行业施加压力，解决方案进展甚微。市场开始定价长期冲突，联邦基金期货现在将 12 月加息的概率定为 50/50。这一利率预期的变化有利于美元，而持续的高能源价格可能会迫使中央银行在今年更积极地应对上升的通胀。请关注战争头条，并观察每周收盘以获取指导。查看我最新的 <strong>加元短期展望</strong>，以更详细地了解近期 USD/CAD 技术交易水平。</p>
</div><h3><strong>US / Canada Economic Data Release</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>美国/加拿大经济数据发布</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133832-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260518133832-4.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Economic Calendar</strong> <strong>-</strong> latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>经济日历</strong> <strong>-</strong> 最新经济动态和即将到来的事件风险。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Active Weekly Technical Charts</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>活跃的每周技术图表</strong></h3>
</div><ul>
<li>Euro (EUR/USD)</li>
<li>US Dollar Index (DXY)</li>
<li>Gold (XAU/USD)</li>
<li>Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)</li>
<li>Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)</li>
<li>Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)</li>
<li>Bitcoin (BTC/USD)</li>
<li>British Pound (GBP/USD)</li>
<li>S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, Dow</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>欧元 (EUR/USD)</li>
<li>美元指数 (DXY)</li>
<li>黄金 (XAU/USD)</li>
<li>日元 (USD/JPY)</li>
<li>澳元 (AUD/USD)</li>
<li>瑞士法郎 (USD/CHF)</li>
<li>比特币 (BTC/USD)</li>
<li>英镑 (GBP/USD)</li>
<li>标普 500，纳斯达克，道琼斯</li>
</ul>
</div><p>--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>--- 由 Michael Boutros 撰写，资深技术策略师</p>
</div><p>Follow Michael on X <strong>@MBForex</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 X 上关注 Michael <strong>@MBForex</strong></p>
</div>

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Tests Breakout—False Break Risk Looms

加元预测：美元/加元正在测试突破——虚假突破的风险正在逼近