<p><strong>关键要点：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Strategy 的积极比特币购买帮助抵消了近期的杠杆多头平仓。</li>
<li>上升的债券收益率和沉重的美国政府债务负担正在推动投资者转向稀缺资产。</li>
<li>美国与伊朗之间的潜在协议可能迅速恢复交易者的风险偏好。</li>
</ul>
<p>比特币（BTC）在周四未能突破 82,000 美元后遭遇拒绝。周一对 76,000 美元水平的再次测试触发了 4 天内 4 亿美元的多头比特币头寸平仓。尽管交易者的信心因价格下跌 7% 而受到打击，但恢复 80,000 美元的前景依然有效。</p>
<p><em>Strategy（MSTR US）的比特币储备积累。来源：Strategy</em></p>
<p>在过去一周，上市公司 Strategy（MSTR US）完成了 20 亿美元比特币的收购。在迈克尔·塞勒的带领下，该公司继续通过创新方式降低资本成本并通过股权发行筹集现金，无论是通过 MSTR 普通股还是 STRC 优先股，令投资者感到惊喜。</p>
<p>更重要的是，Strategy 证明公司也可以通过回购 2029 年到期的 15 亿美元债务来利用疲软的市场。偿还部分高级可转换债券减少了对当前 MSTR 持有者的潜在未来稀释。这一举措为新股发行和额外比特币购买清理了道路。</p>
<p><em>标准普尔 500 指数（左）与美国 10 年期国债收益率（右）。来源：</em> TradingView</p>
<p>从宏观经济角度来看，随着交易者要求更高的回报来持有政府债券，比特币可持续看涨动能的机会有所改善。10 年期国债收益率跃升至 4.60%，达到 16 个月来的最高水平。投资者逐渐意识到美国财政部的沉重负担，尤其是 2026 年到期的 2 万亿美元长期债务。</p>
<p><strong>美元疲软与潜在的伊朗协议</strong></p>
<p>美国联邦储备委员会可能需要继续积累债券和国债，这一举措可能会削弱美元。通常，当投资者对中央银行在不贬值货币的情况下应对危机的能力失去信心时，他们会寻求稀缺资产的避风港。即使黄金作为主要受益者，持有固定收益资产的诱因也显著下降。</p>
<p><em>黄金/USD（左）与比特币/USD（右）。来源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>在美国捕获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗和特朗普总统的全球贸易战升级后，1 月份黄金价格飙升。然而，在接下来的四个月中，黄金几乎回吐了所有涨幅，而比特币则建立了强劲的看涨动能，从 2 月底的 65,000 美元跃升至 76,500 美元。这些近期的价格波动暗示了对比特币作为可靠对冲工具的信心增强。</p>
<p>由于霍尔木兹海峡全面重开的谈判倒退，布伦特原油价格在周一跃升至 113 美元。自 2 月底美国和以色列攻击伊朗以来，油价已上涨超过 50%。特朗普总统的政府还决定不再续签对俄罗斯原油的豁免，进一步压缩了供应，Yahoo Finance 报道。</p>
<p>虽然美国与伊朗之间的协议并非基本情景，但可能会触发重新的风险偏好，并将比特币价格推回 80,000 美元以上。高能源价格抑制了通货膨胀，限制了扩张性货币政策的可能性。尽管如此，形势对比特币有利，因为美国股市徘徊在历史最高点附近，而该加密货币仍低于其峰值 39%。</p>

MARA

MSTR

IMRA

MSTW

BITB

HODL

<p>比特币最近价格跌破 8 万美元可能会因 Strategy 的积极买入、债券收益率上升以及潜在的美伊协议而逆转。Strategy 的 20 亿美元比特币收购和债务回购增强了市场信心。随着国债收益率上升，投资者可能会寻求像比特币这样的稀缺资产，尤其是在美元疲软的情况下。尽管比特币下跌了 7%，但其复苏前景依然强劲，目前比特币价格比峰值低 39%</p>

<p><strong>Key takeaways:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键要点：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Aggressive Bitcoin buying by Strategy helped to offset the recent leveraged long liquidations.</li>
<li>Rising bond yields and a heavy US government debt burden are driving investors toward scarce assets.</li>
<li>A potential deal between the US and Iran could quickly restore traders’ risk appetite.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Strategy 的积极比特币购买帮助抵消了近期的杠杆多头平仓。</li>
<li>上升的债券收益率和沉重的美国政府债务负担正在推动投资者转向稀缺资产。</li>
<li>美国与伊朗之间的潜在协议可能迅速恢复交易者的风险偏好。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Bitcoin (BTC) faced a rejection following a failed attempt to break above $82,000 on Thursday. A subsequent retest of the $76,000 level on Monday triggered $400 million in liquidations for bullish Bitcoin positions over a four-day period. While traders’ confidence took a hit from the 7% price decline, the prospects for recovering the $80,000 mark remain valid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币（BTC）在周四未能突破 82,000 美元后遭遇拒绝。周一对 76,000 美元水平的再次测试触发了 4 天内 4 亿美元的多头比特币头寸平仓。尽管交易者的信心因价格下跌 7% 而受到打击，但恢复 80,000 美元的前景依然有效。</p>
</div><p><em>Bitcoin reserve accumulation by Strategy (MSTR US). Source: Strategy</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Strategy（MSTR US）的比特币储备积累。来源：Strategy</em></p>
</div><p>US-listed Strategy (MSTR US) completed the acquisition of $2 billion in BTC over the past week alone. Spearheaded by Michael Saylor, the company continues to surprise investors by finding innovative ways to reduce the cost of capital and raise cash through equity issuance, whether via MSTR common stock or STRC preferred equity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，上市公司 Strategy（MSTR US）完成了 20 亿美元比特币的收购。在迈克尔·塞勒的带领下，该公司继续通过创新方式降低资本成本并通过股权发行筹集现金，无论是通过 MSTR 普通股还是 STRC 优先股，令投资者感到惊喜。</p>
</div><p>More importantly, Strategy proved the company can also capitalize on a weaker market by repurchasing $1.5 billion of its debt due in 2029. Retiring some of its senior convertible notes reduces potential future dilution for current MSTR holders. This move clears the runway for new share issuance and additional Bitcoin purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，Strategy 证明公司也可以通过回购 2029 年到期的 15 亿美元债务来利用疲软的市场。偿还部分高级可转换债券减少了对当前 MSTR 持有者的潜在未来稀释。这一举措为新股发行和额外比特币购买清理了道路。</p>
</div><p><em>S&amp;P 500 index (left) vs. US 10-year Treasury yield (right). Source:</em> TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>标准普尔 500 指数（左）与美国 10 年期国债收益率（右）。来源：</em> TradingView</p>
</div><p>From a macroeconomic perspective, the odds of a sustainable bullish momentum for Bitcoin improved as traders demanded higher returns to hold government bonds. Yields on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.60%, hitting their highest level in 16 months. Investors are gradually realizing the heavy burden on the US Treasury, especially with $2 trillion in long-term debt maturing in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从宏观经济角度来看，随着交易者要求更高的回报来持有政府债券，比特币可持续看涨动能的机会有所改善。10 年期国债收益率跃升至 4.60%，达到 16 个月来的最高水平。投资者逐渐意识到美国财政部的沉重负担，尤其是 2026 年到期的 2 万亿美元长期债务。</p>
</div><p><strong>US dollar weakness and a potential deal with Iran</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美元疲软与潜在的伊朗协议</strong></p>
</div><p>The US Federal Reserve will likely need to continue accumulating bonds and Treasurys, a move that potentially weakens the US dollar. Typically, investors seek shelter in scarce assets when they lose confidence in the central bank's ability to navigate a crisis without devaluing the currency. Even if gold acts as the primary beneficiary, the incentive to hold fixed-income assets drops significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国联邦储备委员会可能需要继续积累债券和国债，这一举措可能会削弱美元。通常，当投资者对中央银行在不贬值货币的情况下应对危机的能力失去信心时，他们会寻求稀缺资产的避风港。即使黄金作为主要受益者，持有固定收益资产的诱因也显著下降。</p>
</div><p><em>Gold/USD (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>黄金/USD（左）与比特币/USD（右）。来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>Gold prices surged in January after the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and President Trump’s global trade war escalated. However, gold retraced most of those gains over the next four months, while Bitcoin built strong bullish momentum, jumping to $76,500 from $65,000 in late February. These recent price moves hint at growing confidence in Bitcoin as a reliable hedge instrument.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国捕获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗和特朗普总统的全球贸易战升级后，1 月份黄金价格飙升。然而，在接下来的四个月中，黄金几乎回吐了所有涨幅，而比特币则建立了强劲的看涨动能，从 2 月底的 65,000 美元跃升至 76,500 美元。这些近期的价格波动暗示了对比特币作为可靠对冲工具的信心增强。</p>
</div><p>Crude Brent oil prices jumped to $113 on Monday as negotiations to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz backpedaled. Oil prices have surged more than 50% since the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. President Trump’s administration also decided not to renew a waiver for Russian crude oil, further squeezing supply, according to Yahoo Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于霍尔木兹海峡全面重开的谈判倒退，布伦特原油价格在周一跃升至 113 美元。自 2 月底美国和以色列攻击伊朗以来，油价已上涨超过 50%。特朗普总统的政府还决定不再续签对俄罗斯原油的豁免，进一步压缩了供应，Yahoo Finance 报道。</p>
</div><p>A deal between the US and Iran, while not the baseline scenario, could trigger renewed risk appetite and catapult the Bitcoin price back above $80,000. Inflation has been pinned down by high energy prices, limiting the odds of expansionary monetary policies. Even so, the odds favor Bitcoin, as the US stock market is hovering near its all-time high while the cryptocurrency still sits 39% below its peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然美国与伊朗之间的协议并非基本情景，但可能会触发重新的风险偏好，并将比特币价格推回 80,000 美元以上。高能源价格抑制了通货膨胀，限制了扩张性货币政策的可能性。尽管如此，形势对比特币有利，因为美国股市徘徊在历史最高点附近，而该加密货币仍低于其峰值 39%。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin lost its hold on $80K, but three events may send it back sooner than markets expect

Cointelegraph

Marathon Digital

Strategy

Bitwise MARA Option Income Strategy ETF

Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

标普 500 指数

MicroStrategy Pref Shares MSTR 10.0 Perp

Microstrategy Inc Pref Shares STRC 9.0 Perp

MicroStrategy Pref Shares MSTR 8.0 Perp

比特币失去了对 8 万美元的掌控，但有三个事件可能会比市场预期更快地推动其回升至该水平