<p>摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊警告称，如果债券市场波动持续，股票市场将面临自三月底以来的首次重大回调，尽管该行将其 12 个月的标普 500 目标上调至 8300 点。</p>
<p>在你继续之前，特朗普对收益率上升和股票下跌的反应，正如他一贯所做的那样，发表了一个 TACO：</p>
<ul>
<li>特朗普：应沙特和阿联酋的请求，停止对伊朗的计划攻击</li>
<li>特朗普表示，在海湾国家确保攻击暂停后，达成伊朗协议的机会很大</li>
</ul>
<p>回到摩根士丹利。<strong>总结：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>如果债券市场波动加剧，长期收益率继续上升，股票面临显著回调风险</li>
<li>标普 500 在上周末从历史高位回落，期货指向周一进一步下跌</li>
<li>与伊朗冲突相关的持续高企的能源价格引发的通胀担忧，推动国债收益率在整个期限上升，30 年期收益率达到近三年来的最高水平</li>
<li>日本收益率也飙升至数十年来的最高水平</li>
<li>摩根士丹利上周将其 12 个月的标普 500 目标上调至 8300 点，称这是 20 多年来除重大冲击复苏外最强劲的盈利增长</li>
<li>威尔逊指出，投资者低估了盈利增长在 AI 公司之外的广泛延伸，但注意到对这种扩展的布局仍然有限</li>
<li>解决伊朗冲突被视为收益率回落和盈利扩展交易加速的关键前提</li>
</ul>
<p>摩根士丹利的策略师警告称，全球债券抛售对股票市场构成严重威胁，受 AI 驱动的股票反弹面临自市场在三月底触底以来的首次重大回调风险。</p>
<p>迈克·威尔逊领导的团队在一份报告中表示，如果债券市场波动加剧，长期利率继续上升，股票价格应预期出现显著回调。标普 500 在上周末从历史高位回落，股票指数期货指向新一周开始时进一步下跌，使得这一警告具有直接的相关性。</p>
<p>催化剂是熟悉的。由于与伊朗冲突相关的持续高企的能源价格引发的通胀担忧，推动国债收益率在整个期限上升。30 年期收益率上升至近三年来的最高水平，而日本收益率飙升至数十年来未见的水平，突显出债券压力并非纯粹的美国现象。威尔逊将国债抛售直接与油价飙升和强劲经济联系在一起，同时指出美联储在新主席凯文·沃什领导下日益鹰派的基调正在加剧这一趋势。他认为，伊朗冲突的持久解决是债券市场在利率能够显著回落之前所需的。</p>
<p>尽管短期内谨慎，摩根士丹利仍然维持对股票的长期看涨立场。该行上周将其 12 个月的标普 500 目标上调至 8300 点，基于其所描述的 20 多年来最强劲的盈利增长，排除重大经济冲击后的复苏。</p>
<p>威尔逊指出，盈利复苏的广泛性是市场最不具备布局的交易。他认为，盈利增长已经超出了 AI 受益者的核心群体，但投资者对这种扩展的布局意愿仍然有限。在他看来，关键的触发因素是油价和收益率从近期高位回落，这些发展在很大程度上取决于结束伊朗冲突的进展。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>30 年期国债收益率达到近三年来的最高水平是股票市场需要密切关注的数字，因为它代表了在 AI 驱动的成长股上，拉伸估值的折现率压力点。威尔逊的框架将责任明确归于伊朗冲突的解决，以使利率回落，这意味着地缘政治新闻流现在直接影响股票布局决策。盈利复苏的广泛性是长期看涨的案例，但它仍然在很大程度上未被定价，使市场在这一理论有机会发挥之前，面临利率驱动的回调风险。</p>

标普 500 指数

3 倍做空标普 500 ETF - ProShares

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - iShares

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

<p>摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊警告称，如果债券市场的波动性持续，股票可能面临重大调整，尽管他将 12 个月的标普 500 目标上调至 8300 点。由于与伊朗冲突相关的通胀担忧，标普 500 最近从历史高点回落，受到国债收益率上升的影响。解决这一冲突被视为稳定收益率和支持更广泛盈利增长的关键，而这一点仍未得到投资者的充分重视</p>

<p>Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson warns equities face their first meaningful correction since late March if bond volatility persists, even as the bank raises its 12-month S&amp;P 500 target to 8,300.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊警告称，如果债券市场波动持续，股票市场将面临自三月底以来的首次重大回调，尽管该行将其 12 个月的标普 500 目标上调至 8300 点。</p>
</div><p>Before you go on, Trump reacted to rising yields and falling stocks, as he reliably does, with a TACO:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你继续之前，特朗普对收益率上升和股票下跌的反应，正如他一贯所做的那样，发表了一个 TACO：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Trump: Stops the planned attack on Iran on request from Saudi's and UAE</li>
<li>Trump says good chance of Iran deal after Gulf states secure attack pause</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>特朗普：应沙特和阿联酋的请求，停止对伊朗的计划攻击</li>
<li>特朗普表示，在海湾国家确保攻击暂停后，达成伊朗协议的机会很大</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Back to Morgan Stanley. <strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到摩根士丹利。<strong>总结：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Equities face a significant pullback risk if bond market volatility intensifies and long-term yields continue to rise</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 pulled back from an all-time high late last week, with futures pointing to further losses on Monday</li>
<li>Inflation fears tied to prolonged elevated energy prices from the Iran conflict have pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve, with the 30-year at its highest in nearly three years</li>
<li>Japanese yields also surged to multi-decade highs</li>
<li>Morgan Stanley raised its 12-month S&amp;P 500 target to 8,300 last week, citing the strongest earnings growth in more than two decades outside of major shock recoveries</li>
<li>Wilson flagged that investors have underestimated how broadly profit growth has extended beyond AI names, but noted positioning for that broadening remains limited</li>
<li>A resolution to the Iran conflict is seen as the key prerequisite for yields to retreat and the broadening earnings trade to accelerate</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果债券市场波动加剧，长期收益率继续上升，股票面临显著回调风险</li>
<li>标普 500 在上周末从历史高位回落，期货指向周一进一步下跌</li>
<li>与伊朗冲突相关的持续高企的能源价格引发的通胀担忧，推动国债收益率在整个期限上升，30 年期收益率达到近三年来的最高水平</li>
<li>日本收益率也飙升至数十年来的最高水平</li>
<li>摩根士丹利上周将其 12 个月的标普 500 目标上调至 8300 点，称这是 20 多年来除重大冲击复苏外最强劲的盈利增长</li>
<li>威尔逊指出，投资者低估了盈利增长在 AI 公司之外的广泛延伸，但注意到对这种扩展的布局仍然有限</li>
<li>解决伊朗冲突被视为收益率回落和盈利扩展交易加速的关键前提</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley strategists are warning that the global bond selloff poses a serious threat to equity markets, with the AI-driven stock rally at risk of its first meaningful correction since markets bottomed at the end of March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的策略师警告称，全球债券抛售对股票市场构成严重威胁，受 AI 驱动的股票反弹面临自市场在三月底触底以来的首次重大回调风险。</p>
</div><p>The team led by Mike Wilson said in a note that if bond market volatility intensifies and long-term interest rates continue to climb, a significant pullback in equity prices should be expected. The S&amp;P 500 retreated from a record high late last week, and equity index futures pointed to further losses at the start of the new week, giving the warning immediate relevance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迈克·威尔逊领导的团队在一份报告中表示，如果债券市场波动加剧，长期利率继续上升，股票价格应预期出现显著回调。标普 500 在上周末从历史高位回落，股票指数期货指向新一周开始时进一步下跌，使得这一警告具有直接的相关性。</p>
</div><p>The catalyst is familiar. Inflation fears driven by persistently elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict have pushed Treasury yields higher across the maturity spectrum. The 30-year yield rose to its highest level in nearly three years, while Japanese yields surged to levels not seen in several decades, underscoring that the bond pressure is not a purely American phenomenon. Wilson tied the Treasury selloff directly to surging oil prices and a strong economy, while noting that the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish tone under new chair Kevin Warsh is amplifying the move. A lasting resolution to the Iran conflict, he argued, is what bond markets need before rates can meaningfully retreat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>催化剂是熟悉的。由于与伊朗冲突相关的持续高企的能源价格引发的通胀担忧，推动国债收益率在整个期限上升。30 年期收益率上升至近三年来的最高水平，而日本收益率飙升至数十年来未见的水平，突显出债券压力并非纯粹的美国现象。威尔逊将国债抛售直接与油价飙升和强劲经济联系在一起，同时指出美联储在新主席凯文·沃什领导下日益鹰派的基调正在加剧这一趋势。他认为，伊朗冲突的持久解决是债券市场在利率能够显著回落之前所需的。</p>
</div><p>Despite the near-term caution, Morgan Stanley maintained its longer-term bullish stance on equities. The bank raised its 12-month S&amp;P 500 target to 8,300 last week, underpinned by what it described as the strongest earnings growth in more than two decades, excluding recoveries from major economic shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管短期内谨慎，摩根士丹利仍然维持对股票的长期看涨立场。该行上周将其 12 个月的标普 500 目标上调至 8300 点，基于其所描述的 20 多年来最强劲的盈利增长，排除重大经济冲击后的复苏。</p>
</div><p>Wilson identified a broadening of that earnings recovery as the trade that markets are most poorly positioned for. Profit growth has extended well beyond the core group of AI beneficiaries, he argued, but investor appetite to position for that broadening remains limited. The key triggers to watch, in his view, are oil prices and yields pulling back from recent highs, developments that hinge heavily on progress toward ending the Iran conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威尔逊指出，盈利复苏的广泛性是市场最不具备布局的交易。他认为，盈利增长已经超出了 AI 受益者的核心群体，但投资者对这种扩展的布局意愿仍然有限。在他看来，关键的触发因素是油价和收益率从近期高位回落，这些发展在很大程度上取决于结束伊朗冲突的进展。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level in nearly three years is the number that equity markets need to watch most closely, as it represents the discount rate pressure point at which stretched valuations on AI-driven growth stocks become hardest to defend. Wilson's framework puts the onus squarely on an Iran conflict resolution to bring rates back down, meaning geopolitical newsflow is now a direct input into equity positioning decisions. A broadening earnings recovery is the longer-term bullish case, but it remains largely unpriced, leaving the market vulnerable to a rates-driven unwind before that thesis gets the chance to play out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30 年期国债收益率达到近三年来的最高水平是股票市场需要密切关注的数字，因为它代表了在 AI 驱动的成长股上，拉伸估值的折现率压力点。威尔逊的框架将责任明确归于伊朗冲突的解决，以使利率回落，这意味着地缘政治新闻流现在直接影响股票布局决策。盈利复苏的广泛性是长期看涨的案例，但它仍然在很大程度上未被定价，使市场在这一理论有机会发挥之前，面临利率驱动的回调风险。</p>
</div>

Morgan Stanley warns bond rout could trigger equity correction, still sees S&P500 @ 8300

- 摩根士丹利警告称，如果债市波动加剧，股市将面临重大回调风险。  
- 标普 500 指数在上周末从历史高位回落，周一期货预示进一步下跌。  
- 解决伊朗冲突被视为利率回落的关键前提。

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摩根士丹利

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

摩根士丹利警告称，债券市场的抛售可能会导致股市出现调整，但仍然预计标普 500 指数将达到 8300 点