<ul>
<li>英镑/美元呈现看涨关键反转，随着国债抛售减缓</li>
<li>市场预计今年至少两次英央行加息</li>
<li>英国工资和通胀数据备受关注</li>
<li>英镑/澳元在假突破下测试关键下行趋势</li>
</ul>
<h2>英镑多头的完美风暴</h2>
<p>周一为英镑多头提供了近乎完美的发展组合，在上周财政和政治动荡重创英镑并使长期国债收益率飙升至 1990 年代以来的最高水平后，触发了英国资产的急剧反转。工党领导候选人安迪·伯纳姆关于财政纪律的平静言论、国际货币基金组织的增长上调、英格兰银行决策者梅根·格林的鹰派言论以及特朗普的又一次发言共同推动了英镑/美元的急剧反转，同时长期国债收益率也出现了适度回撤。</p>
<p>尽管海湾地区的冲突仍然是英镑对美元的主要宏观驱动因素，但英镑再次开始受到特有的英国因素的影响。</p>
<h2>英央行再次成为焦点</h2>
<p>伯纳姆重返议会的潜在路径仍需数周时间，并且他在补选中是否能胜出并无保证，考虑到改革党在该地区地方政府选举中的近期强势，斯塔默面临的直接政治威胁目前看起来不那么紧迫，为其他因素影响英镑走势创造了空间。越来越多的情况下，这可能是英格兰银行的反应功能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100019-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100019-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView (BST)</p>
<p>这使得本周的英国数据备受关注。周二发布的劳动力市场报告中，除奖金外的平均周薪仍然是关键数据，因为英央行对国内产生的通胀压力持续关注，而失业率也将受到关注，尽管对调查数据的可靠性仍存在疑问。</p>
<p>这尤其重要，因为市场预计到年底英央行将至少再加息两次，使得即将发布的数据在本周的宏观背景下对英镑和英国利率定价具有更大意义。</p>
<p>对于 24 小时后的通胀报告，关注的焦点将是是否有明确证据表明更高的能源价格开始进一步渗透到供应链中，影响更广泛的定价行为。这使得核心、服务和生产者价格指标的关注度进一步提高，尤其是后者，因为它将提供关于向英国消费者传递的管道压力的信号。</p>
<p>在英国数据发布之间，交易者还应密切关注影响力巨大的美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒即将发表的讲话，他对通胀冲击美国经济的看法以及对联邦公开市场委员会货币政策框架的潜在变化，包括可能的通胀测量方法的转变，市场对此非常关注。</p>
<h2>国债压力暂时缓解</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100054-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100054-4.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>长期国债收益率目前似乎已经稳定，这不仅反映了围绕英国政治的消息流有所改善，也反映了上周持续抛售后收益率上升的幅度已经变得相当紧张。</p>
<p>围绕英国财政前景、政治不稳定和通胀风险的根本担忧并没有消失，远未结束，但当各地的头条新闻开始大声喊叫收益率达到 1990 年代以来的最高水平时，这通常是一个良好的迹象，表明市场定位和情绪可能已经接近极端。到目前为止，这一情况得到了验证。</p>
<h2>英镑关注突破</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095927-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095927-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>周一，国债市场的表现优于英镑，英镑/美元在亚洲时段早盘交易走低后迅速上涨，帮助在日线图上形成了看涨的关键反转蜡烛。该货币对目前位于 50 日和 200 日移动平均线的交汇处，前支撑位在 1.3450 略高于当前水平，成为交易者关注的直接水平。</p>
<p>鉴于关键反转预示着上行风险，交易者应关注突破 1.3450 的情况，从而建立多头头寸，并在下方设置紧密止损以保护。如果该货币对突破、回测并从 1.3450 反弹，设置的优点将进一步提高。100 日移动平均线是多头的第一个目标，1.3500 和 1.3550 是之后的下一个目标，因为英镑有向大整数和半整数靠拢的历史。</p>
<p>相反，如果看涨信号被证明是虚假的，这在这个以头条新闻驱动的环境中仍然是一个真实风险，那么回落至 50 日和 200 日移动平均线区域将再次允许考虑空头，并在上方设置紧密止损以保护，目标为周一的低点 1.3304。</p>
<p>振荡器发出的信号完全中立，更加强调价格行动而不是保持强烈的方向性偏见。</p>
<h2>英镑/澳元关注趋势突破</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095954-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095954-2.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>随着海湾地区的头条新闻主导了更广泛的美元方向，英国利率定价和国内基本面的变化可能在交叉货币对中更为明显。</p>
<p>英镑/澳元值得关注，在上周五假突破 12 月 2023 年低点后急剧反转，形成了吞没蜡烛，帮助周一进一步上涨。该货币对目前正关注自 3 月底以来的下行趋势，交易者需警惕潜在的趋势突破。</p>
<p>今天的下行趋势位于 1.8775 附近，轻微的阻力位于 1.8825 稍远处。如果价格突破下行趋势并保持在后者之上，将允许建立多头头寸，并在下方设置紧密止损以保护，目标为 50 日移动平均线与 1.8950 阻力的交汇处。</p>
<p>另一方面，如果该货币对测试下行趋势并失败，确认其为阻力，则可以考虑在下方建立空头头寸，并在上方设置紧密止损以保护，初始目标为 1.8696，之后是上周设定的低点 1.8550 以下。</p>
<p>在最近几周偏向下行趋势的情况下，振荡指标现在开始对多头变得更加积极，RSI（14）突破了其下行趋势但仍保持在 50 以下，而 MACD 看起来接近形成看涨交叉，同时仍然略微处于负区间。这尚未发出看涨动能信号，但推动该货币对达到多年低点的下行力量几乎已经消失。</p>

英镑 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>GBP/USD 显示出看涨的关键反转，因为英国国债收益率趋于稳定，这暗示近期英镑抛售可能接近尾声。市场预期今年至少会有两次英格兰银行加息，接下来的英国劳动力和通胀数据变得愈发重要。英镑的表现受到国内因素和持续的地缘政治紧张局势的影响。交易者应关注是否突破 1.3450，以寻找潜在的多头机会，而未能维持该水平可能会导致空头机会</p>

<ul>
<li>GBP/USD delivers bullish key reversal as gilt rout eases</li>
<li>Markets pricing at least two BoE hikes this year</li>
<li>UK wages and inflation data shift into sharp focus</li>
<li>GBP/AUD tests key downtrend after false downside break</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>英镑/美元呈现看涨关键反转，随着国债抛售减缓</li>
<li>市场预计今年至少两次英央行加息</li>
<li>英国工资和通胀数据备受关注</li>
<li>英镑/澳元在假突破下测试关键下行趋势</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Perfect Storm for Pound Bulls</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英镑多头的完美风暴</h2>
</div><p>Monday delivered a near-perfect combination of developments for sterling bulls, triggering a sharp reversal in UK assets after last week’s fiscal and political turmoil hammered the pound and sent long-end gilt yields surging to levels not seen since the 1990s. Calming remarks from Labour leadership candidate Andy Burnham on fiscal discipline, an IMF growth upgrade, hawkish rhetoric from Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene and another Trump TACO combined to fuel a sharp reversal in GBP/USD alongside a modest retracement in long-end gilt yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一为英镑多头提供了近乎完美的发展组合，在上周财政和政治动荡重创英镑并使长期国债收益率飙升至 1990 年代以来的最高水平后，触发了英国资产的急剧反转。工党领导候选人安迪·伯纳姆关于财政纪律的平静言论、国际货币基金组织的增长上调、英格兰银行决策者梅根·格林的鹰派言论以及特朗普的又一次发言共同推动了英镑/美元的急剧反转，同时长期国债收益率也出现了适度回撤。</p>
</div><p>While the conflict in the Gulf remains the dominant macro driver for the pound against the dollar, for the first time in a while sterling is once again starting to trade on idiosyncratic UK factors too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管海湾地区的冲突仍然是英镑对美元的主要宏观驱动因素，但英镑再次开始受到特有的英国因素的影响。</p>
</div><h2>BoE Back in Focus</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英央行再次成为焦点</h2>
</div><p>With Burnham’s potential path back to parliament still weeks away and no guarantee he even wins the byelection given Reform’s recent strength in local government elections in the area, the immediate political threat to Starmer looks less pressing for now, creating room for other drivers to influence sterling movements. Increasingly, that may now be the Bank of England reaction function.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯纳姆重返议会的潜在路径仍需数周时间，并且他在补选中是否能胜出并无保证，考虑到改革党在该地区地方政府选举中的近期强势，斯塔默面临的直接政治威胁目前看起来不那么紧迫，为其他因素影响英镑走势创造了空间。越来越多的情况下，这可能是英格兰银行的反应功能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100019-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100019-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView (BST)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView (BST)</p>
</div><p>That puts this week’s UK data into focus. For the labour market report out Tuesday, average weekly earnings excluding bonuses remains the key release given the Bank’s continued concern surrounding domestically generated inflation pressures, while the unemployment rate will also matter despite lingering questions about the reliability of the survey data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得本周的英国数据备受关注。周二发布的劳动力市场报告中，除奖金外的平均周薪仍然是关键数据，因为英央行对国内产生的通胀压力持续关注，而失业率也将受到关注，尽管对调查数据的可靠性仍存在疑问。</p>
</div><p>That’s especially important with markets pricing at least two further Bank of England rate hikes by year-end, leaving incoming data carrying far greater significance for sterling and UK rate pricing during what’s otherwise a fairly quiet week on the macro front.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这尤其重要，因为市场预计到年底英央行将至少再加息两次，使得即将发布的数据在本周的宏观背景下对英镑和英国利率定价具有更大意义。</p>
</div><p>For the inflation report 24 hours later, attention will be on whether there’s clear evidence higher energy prices are starting to bleed further down supply chains into broader pricing behaviour. That places extra emphasis on the core, services and producer price measures, especially the latter given it will provide signal on pipeline pressures heading towards UK consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 24 小时后的通胀报告，关注的焦点将是是否有明确证据表明更高的能源价格开始进一步渗透到供应链中，影响更广泛的定价行为。这使得核心、服务和生产者价格指标的关注度进一步提高，尤其是后者，因为它将提供关于向英国消费者传递的管道压力的信号。</p>
</div><p>Wedged in between the UK data, traders should also keep a close eye on an upcoming speech from influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller, with his views on the inflation impulse hitting the US economy and potential changes to the FOMC’s monetary policy framework, including a possible shift in inflation measurement, of interest to markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在英国数据发布之间，交易者还应密切关注影响力巨大的美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒即将发表的讲话，他对通胀冲击美国经济的看法以及对联邦公开市场委员会货币政策框架的潜在变化，包括可能的通胀测量方法的转变，市场对此非常关注。</p>
</div><h2>Gilt Stress Eases for Now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>国债压力暂时缓解</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100054-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519100054-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Long-end gilt yields look to have stabilised for now, likely reflecting not only the improved news flow surrounding UK politics, but also just how stretched the move higher had become after last week’s relentless selloff.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期国债收益率目前似乎已经稳定，这不仅反映了围绕英国政治的消息流有所改善，也反映了上周持续抛售后收益率上升的幅度已经变得相当紧张。</p>
</div><p>The underlying concerns surrounding Britain’s fiscal outlook, political instability and inflation risks haven’t disappeared, not by a long shot, but when headlines everywhere start screaming yields are hitting the highest levels since the 1990s, it’s often a decent sign positioning and sentiment may already be nearing an extreme. So far, that’s proven to be the case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>围绕英国财政前景、政治不稳定和通胀风险的根本担忧并没有消失，远未结束，但当各地的头条新闻开始大声喊叫收益率达到 1990 年代以来的最高水平时，这通常是一个良好的迹象，表明市场定位和情绪可能已经接近极端。到目前为止，这一情况得到了验证。</p>
</div><h2>Sterling Eyes Break Higher</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英镑关注突破</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095927-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095927-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The outperformance in gilt markets filtered through to sterling on Monday, with GBP/USD ripping higher after trading lower early in the Asian session, helping to deliver a bullish key reversal candle on the daily chart. The pair now finds itself resting on the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages with former support at 1.3450 sitting marginally overhead, leaving them as the immediate levels for traders to focus on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，国债市场的表现优于英镑，英镑/美元在亚洲时段早盘交易走低后迅速上涨，帮助在日线图上形成了看涨的关键反转蜡烛。该货币对目前位于 50 日和 200 日移动平均线的交汇处，前支撑位在 1.3450 略高于当前水平，成为交易者关注的直接水平。</p>
</div><p>Given the key reversal warns of upside risks, traders should be on the lookout for a break above 1.3450, allowing for longs to be established with a tight stop beneath for protection. The merits of the setup would improve further if the pair were to break, retest and bounce from 1.3450 before entry. The 100-day moving average is the first level for longs to target, with 1.3500 and 1.3550 the next levels after that given sterling’s track record to gravitate towards big and half-big figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于关键反转预示着上行风险，交易者应关注突破 1.3450 的情况，从而建立多头头寸，并在下方设置紧密止损以保护。如果该货币对突破、回测并从 1.3450 反弹，设置的优点将进一步提高。100 日移动平均线是多头的第一个目标，1.3500 和 1.3550 是之后的下一个目标，因为英镑有向大整数和半整数靠拢的历史。</p>
</div><p>Alternatively, if the bullish signal proves false, which remains a genuine risk in this headline-driven environment, a reversal back beneath the 50 and 200-day moving average zone would allow for shorts to be considered once again with a tight stop above for protection, targeting Monday’s low of 1.3304.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，如果看涨信号被证明是虚假的，这在这个以头条新闻驱动的环境中仍然是一个真实风险，那么回落至 50 日和 200 日移动平均线区域将再次允许考虑空头，并在上方设置紧密止损以保护，目标为周一的低点 1.3304。</p>
</div><p>The message from the oscillators remains entirely neutral, placing greater emphasis on price action rather than maintaining a strong directional bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>振荡器发出的信号完全中立，更加强调价格行动而不是保持强烈的方向性偏见。</p>
</div><h2>GBP/AUD Eyes Trend Break</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英镑/澳元关注趋势突破</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095954-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260519095954-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>With Gulf headlines dominating broader dollar direction, cleaner expressions of shifting UK rate pricing and domestic fundamentals may be more evident against the crosses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着海湾地区的头条新闻主导了更广泛的美元方向，英国利率定价和国内基本面的变化可能在交叉货币对中更为明显。</p>
</div><p>GBP/AUD is one to keep on the radar, reversing hard after a false break beneath the December 2023 swing low last Friday, delivering an engulfing candle that helped herald further gains on Monday. The pair now finds itself eyeing the downtrend from the late March swing high of 1.9400, putting traders on alert for a potential trend break.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑/澳元值得关注，在上周五假突破 12 月 2023 年低点后急剧反转，形成了吞没蜡烛，帮助周一进一步上涨。该货币对目前正关注自 3 月底以来的下行趋势，交易者需警惕潜在的趋势突破。</p>
</div><p>The downtrend sits around 1.8775 today with minor resistance located just beyond at 1.8825. If the price were to break the downtrend and hold above the latter, it would allow for longs to be established with a tight stop beneath for protection, targeting the confluence of the 50-day moving average and 1.8950 resistance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的下行趋势位于 1.8775 附近，轻微的阻力位于 1.8825 稍远处。如果价格突破下行趋势并保持在后者之上，将允许建立多头头寸，并在下方设置紧密止损以保护，目标为 50 日移动平均线与 1.8950 阻力的交汇处。</p>
</div><p>Alternatively, if the pair were to test the downtrend and fail, validating it as resistance, shorts could be considered beneath with a tight stop above for protection, targeting 1.8696 initially and, beyond that, the swing low set last week beneath 1.8550.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，如果该货币对测试下行趋势并失败，确认其为阻力，则可以考虑在下方建立空头头寸，并在上方设置紧密止损以保护，初始目标为 1.8696，之后是上周设定的低点 1.8550 以下。</p>
</div><p>Having favoured downside for a prolonged period over recent weeks, the oscillators are now starting to turn more constructive for bulls with RSI (14) breaking its downtrend while holding beneath 50, while MACD looks close to staging a bullish crossover while remaining marginally in negative territory. It’s not a bullish momentum signal yet, but the downside strength that helped drive the pair to multi-year lows has all but evaporated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近几周偏向下行趋势的情况下，振荡指标现在开始对多头变得更加积极，RSI（14）突破了其下行趋势但仍保持在 50 以下，而 MACD 看起来接近形成看涨交叉，同时仍然略微处于负区间。这尚未发出看涨动能信号，但推动该货币对达到多年低点的下行力量几乎已经消失。</p>
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英镑/美元的看涨关键反转形态警示英镑的抛售可能已经接近尾声