<p>[东京] 日本经济在第一季度以超出预期的速度增长，尽管这种势头现在面临严峻考验，因为伊朗战争带来的能源冲击正在全面影响企业和消费者。</p>
<p>数据显示，日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长 2.1%，超出市场中值预测的 1.7% 增幅，以及修正后的前一季度（10 月至 12 月）0.8% 的增长。</p>
<p>按季度计算，经济增长 0.5%，而市场中值预测为 0.4% 的增幅。</p>
<p>分析师预计，随着中东冲突的影响加剧，全球能源供应遭遇前所未有的干扰，未来几个季度的增长将放缓。</p>
<p>“今天的数据表明，在伊朗战争之前，经济处于稳固的基础上，这意味着它有一定的缓冲能力来应对能源冲击，” 大和生命研究所高级执行经济学家新家义树表示。</p>
<p>“经济可能在第二季度收缩，但如果只是整体价格上涨，之后可能会恢复增长。如果出现严重的供应中断，增长的损害可能会如此严重，以至于日本央行可能没有加息的空间，” 他说。</p>
<h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
<p>获取洞察信息，直接发送到您的邮箱。</p>
<p>私人消费占日本 GDP 的半数以上，数据显示增长 0.3%，高于市场预测的 0.2%。</p>
<p>净外部需求，即出口减去进口，为增长贡献了 0.3 个百分点。路透社调查的分析师预计贡献为 0.2 个百分点。</p>
<p>数据显示，资本支出在 1 月至 3 月季度增长 0.3%，高于市场预测的 0.2%。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6fa4b69be65cead700d5e564d39bce2e4584ce02286910fc15c83c20f3706c9f/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6fa4b69be65cead700d5e564d39bce2e4584ce02286910fc15c83c20f3706c9f/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>日本服务业增长在 4 月降至 11 个月低点：PMI</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f1c19b0274d3c9179aee861b4a52513f6098bb52adda181c9aa9f57e2e6602b3/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f1c19b0274d3c9179aee861b4a52513f6098bb52adda181c9aa9f57e2e6602b3/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>日本实际工资在 3 月连续第三个月上涨，支持日本央行加息的理由</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>日本制造业活动增长因囤积而达到四年高点，PMI 显示</h3>
<p>尽管数据显示国内需求和企业支出保持稳定，但自 2 月 28 日中东冲突爆发以来，经济风险加剧。</p>
<p>伊朗在回应美以攻击时有效关闭霍尔木兹海峡，导致油价飙升，并引发对严重供应中断的担忧。</p>
<p>由于日本对来自中东的石油进口依赖严重，能源冲击使其特别脆弱，激增的燃料成本推高了通货膨胀，同时对企业利润和整体经济造成压力。</p>
<p>前景的变化已经在政策预期中产生涟漪效应。日本央行发出了鹰派信号，促使市场预计 6 月加息的可能性很大。路透社</p>
<p>解码亚洲通讯：您在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲的指南。点击此处注册以获取解码亚洲通讯，直接发送到您的邮箱。免费。</p>

日本指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

1321

南方日经225

南方两倍看多日经

南方两倍看空日经

1570

1357

<p>日本经济在第一季度年化增长 2.1%，超出预期，但由于伊朗战争对能源供应的影响，面临挑战。私人消费增长 0.3%，净外部需求也带来了积极贡献。分析师预测，随着能源成本上升，可能在第二季度出现收缩，这将影响通货膨胀和企业利润。日本银行的加息预期可能会根据供应中断的严重程度而变化</p>

<p>[TOKYO] Japan’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter, though that momentum now faces a severe test as the full force of the energy shock from the Iran war filters through businesses and consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[东京] 日本经济在第一季度以超出预期的速度增长，尽管这种势头现在面临严峻考验，因为伊朗战争带来的能源冲击正在全面影响企业和消费者。</p>
</div><p>Japan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased an annualised 2.1 per cent, data showed on Tuesday, outstripping the median market forecast for a 1.7 per cent gain and a revised 0.8 per cent rise in the previous October-to-December quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据显示，日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长 2.1%，超出市场中值预测的 1.7% 增幅，以及修正后的前一季度（10 月至 12 月）0.8% 的增长。</p>
</div><p>On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the economy grew 0.5 per cent compared with the median market forecast for a 0.4 per cent gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按季度计算，经济增长 0.5%，而市场中值预测为 0.4% 的增幅。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect growth to slow in the coming quarters as the fallout from the Middle East conflict, which has caused an unprecedented disruption to global energy supplies, intensifies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计，随着中东冲突的影响加剧，全球能源供应遭遇前所未有的干扰，未来几个季度的增长将放缓。</p>
</div><p>“Today’s data shows the economy was on a solid footing before the Iran war, which means it has some buffers to weather the energy shock,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“今天的数据表明，在伊朗战争之前，经济处于稳固的基础上，这意味着它有一定的缓冲能力来应对能源冲击，” 大和生命研究所高级执行经济学家新家义树表示。</p>
</div><p>“The economy may contract in the second quarter but if it’s just about prices rising overall, it can probably resume a recovery thereafter. If there’s huge supply disruptions, the damage to growth could be so severe the BOJ may not have scope to raise interest rates,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“经济可能在第二季度收缩，但如果只是整体价格上涨，之后可能会恢复增长。如果出现严重的供应中断，增长的损害可能会如此严重，以至于日本央行可能没有加息的空间，” 他说。</p>
</div><h3>Navigate Asia in  a new global order</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
</div><p>Get the insights delivered to your inbox.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取洞察信息，直接发送到您的邮箱。</p>
</div><p>Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan’s GDP, rose 0.3 per cent, compared with market forecasts for a 0.2 per cent gain, the government data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人消费占日本 GDP 的半数以上，数据显示增长 0.3%，高于市场预测的 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>Net external demand, or exports minus imports, added 0.3 percentage point to growth. Analysts polled by Reuters had projected a 0.2 percentage point contribution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净外部需求，即出口减去进口，为增长贡献了 0.3 个百分点。路透社调查的分析师预计贡献为 0.2 个百分点。</p>
</div><p>Capital expenditure grew 0.3 per cent in January-to-March quarter compared with market forecasts for a 0.2 per cent gain, the data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据显示，资本支出在 1 月至 3 月季度增长 0.3%，高于市场预测的 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6fa4b69be65cead700d5e564d39bce2e4584ce02286910fc15c83c20f3706c9f/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6fa4b69be65cead700d5e564d39bce2e4584ce02286910fc15c83c20f3706c9f?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japan service sector growth slows to 11-month low in April: PMI</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本服务业增长在 4 月降至 11 个月低点：PMI</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f1c19b0274d3c9179aee861b4a52513f6098bb52adda181c9aa9f57e2e6602b3/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f1c19b0274d3c9179aee861b4a52513f6098bb52adda181c9aa9f57e2e6602b3?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japan real wages climb for third month in March, backing case for BOJ rate hike</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本实际工资在 3 月连续第三个月上涨，支持日本央行加息的理由</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japan’s factory activity growth hits 4-year high on stockpiling, PMI shows</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本制造业活动增长因囤积而达到四年高点，PMI 显示</h3>
</div><p>While the data suggests domestic demand and business spending were holding up, risks to the economy have heightened since the Middle East conflict erupted on Feb 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管数据显示国内需求和企业支出保持稳定，但自 2 月 28 日中东冲突爆发以来，经济风险加剧。</p>
</div><p>Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli attacks, sending oil prices soaring and stoking fears of severe supply disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗在回应美以攻击时有效关闭霍尔木兹海峡，导致油价飙升，并引发对严重供应中断的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Japan is particularly vulnerable to the energy shock due to its heavy reliance on oil imports from the Middle East, with surging fuel costs driving up inflation, while weighing on corporate profits and the broader economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于日本对来自中东的石油进口依赖严重，能源冲击使其特别脆弱，激增的燃料成本推高了通货膨胀，同时对企业利润和整体经济造成压力。</p>
</div><p>The shift in the outlook is already rippling through policy expectations. The Bank of Japan has dialled up hawkish signals that had prompted markets to price in a strong chance of an interest-rate hike in June. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前景的变化已经在政策预期中产生涟漪效应。日本央行发出了鹰派信号，促使市场预计 6 月加息的可能性很大。路透社</p>
</div><p>Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解码亚洲通讯：您在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲的指南。点击此处注册以获取解码亚洲通讯，直接发送到您的邮箱。免费。</p>
</div>

Japan’s economy grows at solid pace in Q1, but Iran war set to upend momentum

- 日本第一季度 GDP 年化增长 2.1%，超出预期 1.7%。
- 能源冲击因伊朗战争影响经济前景，未来增长可能放缓。
- 日本央行可能因供应中断而无法加息。

日本经济在第一季度稳步增长，但伊朗战争可能会扰乱这一增长势头