<p>倒计时已经开始，<strong>Nvidia (</strong> <strong>NASDAQ:NVDA</strong> <strong>)</strong> 将于本周三公布其第一季度财报。投资者在发布前充满期待，因为 Nvidia 一再实现了巨大的增长，这得益于超大规模企业和企业在扩展计算能力方面的持续 AI 基础设施支出。</p>
<h3>在 TipRanks 上享受 55% 的折扣</h3>
<p>忘掉保证金或期权吧。专业人士是如何交易 NVDA 的</p>
<p>在财报发布前，NVDA 股票本月迄今已上涨约 11%，反映出市场对该公司再次交出超出预期业绩的信心依然强烈。</p>
<p>然而，投资者 Florian Muller 表示，有理由相信 Nvidia 可能无法以投资者习惯的幅度超出预期。</p>
<p>Muller 指出：“Nvidia 仍然是核心持股，拥有强劲的收入和盈利质量，但我在财报发布前不再进一步增持。”</p>
<p>Muller 的谨慎主要归结于一个问题——预期可能终于追上了 Nvidia 的增长轨迹。这位投资者指出，超大规模企业的资本支出历来是 Nvidia 收入表现最强的领先指标之一，谷歌、微软、Meta 和亚马逊的支出趋势与 Nvidia 的收入在一个季度后表现出极高的相关性。</p>
<p>这种关系在过去几个季度表现得尤为明显，随着 AI 基础设施支出的加速，Nvidia 的收入持续远超华尔街的预期。然而，这一次，Muller 认为情况看起来有所不同。尽管谷歌最新的资本支出数据仍然强劲，但投资者指出，微软和 Meta 的支出趋势在环比上有所减弱，微软的资本支出几乎保持 “平稳”，而 Meta 的支出实际上较上个季度有所下降。</p>
<p>使用相同的历史框架，Muller 估计 Nvidia 本季度的收入可能在 780 亿美元到 800 亿美元之间。问题在于，这些数字现在与分析师的共识大致相符，而不是明显高于共识。Muller 认为，投资者逐渐习惯于 Nvidia 的巨大超预期，导致上涨惊喜的幅度随时间缩小。</p>
<p>Muller 解释道：“惊喜的幅度总体上在缩小，因为分析师习惯了超预期，投资者继续提高他们的预期。”</p>
<p>重要的是，Muller 明确表示，他的谨慎并不是基于对 Nvidia 基础业务质量的担忧。事实上，他称赞了公司的 “强劲收入和盈利质量”，同时强调 Nvidia 强大的自由现金流生成和改善的现金转化指标。这位投资者还反驳了关于应收账款的担忧，认为应将其与公司快速扩张的销售基础相对比，而不是孤立地看待。</p>
<p>在估值层面，Muller 承认，随着现金流预期的改善和净现金头寸的上升，他的折现现金流假设在最近几个月变得更加积极。然而，他表示，Nvidia 最近的反弹已经在很大程度上反映了乐观情绪。尽管他仍然将 Nvidia 视为核心的长期持股，但他表示，如果股价低于 200 美元，他会更愿意增加持仓。</p>
<p>目前，Muller 仍然持有 Nvidia 的投资，尽管他指出，在可能成为本季度市场最受关注的财报发布之前，他相对于更广泛的指数和 ETF 保持了低配的仓位。</p>
<p>为此，Muller 对 NVDA 股票给予持有（即中性）评级。</p>
<p>这在华尔街并不是一个常见的观点。NVDA 拥有 40 个买入评级，仅有 1 个持有和 1 个卖出评级，整体共识评级为强烈买入。其 12 个月的平均目标价为 281.59 美元，意味着从当前水平约有 27% 的上涨空间。（见 <strong>NVDA 股票预测</strong>）</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

1.5 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Tradr

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>投资者 Florian Muller 在英伟达财报发布前建议谨慎对待该股票，认为市场预期可能已经追赶上公司的增长。他承认英伟达的收入和盈利质量强劲，但认为潜在的重大上行惊喜的可能性已经减小。Muller 对 NVDA 股票维持持有评级，表明中立立场，尽管该股近期反弹且分析师的共识评级强劲</p>

<p>The countdown has begun, as <strong>Nvidia (</strong> <strong>NASDAQ:NVDA</strong> <strong>)</strong> prepares to unveil its first-quarter report this Wednesday. Investors are heading into the release with expectations running high, as Nvidia has repeatedly delivered massive growth fueled by relentless AI infrastructure spending from hyperscalers and enterprises racing to expand computing capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倒计时已经开始，<strong>Nvidia (</strong> <strong>NASDAQ:NVDA</strong> <strong>)</strong> 将于本周三公布其第一季度财报。投资者在发布前充满期待，因为 Nvidia 一再实现了巨大的增长，这得益于超大规模企业和企业在扩展计算能力方面的持续 AI 基础设施支出。</p>
</div><h3>Claim 55% Off TipRanks</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在 TipRanks 上享受 55% 的折扣</h3>
</div><p>Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade NVDA</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>忘掉保证金或期权吧。专业人士是如何交易 NVDA 的</p>
</div><p>Heading into the print, NVDA stock has climbed about 11% so far this month, reflecting continued confidence that the company can once again deliver results well ahead of expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财报发布前，NVDA 股票本月迄今已上涨约 11%，反映出市场对该公司再次交出超出预期业绩的信心依然强烈。</p>
</div><p>However, according to investor Florian Muller, there are reasons to believe Nvidia may not exceed expectations by the same magnitude investors have grown accustomed to seeing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者 Florian Muller 表示，有理由相信 Nvidia 可能无法以投资者习惯的幅度超出预期。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Nvidia remains a core holding, with robust revenue and earnings quality, but I refrain from further accumulation ahead of earnings,&#34; Muller noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Muller 指出：“Nvidia 仍然是核心持股，拥有强劲的收入和盈利质量，但我在财报发布前不再进一步增持。”</p>
</div><p>Muller's caution mainly comes down to one issue – expectations may have finally caught up with Nvidia's growth trajectory. The investor points out that hyperscaler capital spending has historically been one of the strongest leading indicators for Nvidia's revenue performance, with spending trends from Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon showing an exceptionally high correlation with Nvidia's revenue one quarter later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Muller 的谨慎主要归结于一个问题——预期可能终于追上了 Nvidia 的增长轨迹。这位投资者指出，超大规模企业的资本支出历来是 Nvidia 收入表现最强的领先指标之一，谷歌、微软、Meta 和亚马逊的支出趋势与 Nvidia 的收入在一个季度后表现出极高的相关性。</p>
</div><p>That relationship has worked especially well over the past several quarters, when accelerating AI infrastructure spending consistently translated into Nvidia delivering revenue far ahead of Wall Street expectations. This time, however, Muller believes the setup looks different. While Google's latest capex figure remained strong, the investor notes that spending trends at Microsoft and Meta were less aggressive on a sequential basis, with Microsoft's capex remaining &#34;almost flat QoQ&#34; while Meta's spending actually declining from the prior quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种关系在过去几个季度表现得尤为明显，随着 AI 基础设施支出的加速，Nvidia 的收入持续远超华尔街的预期。然而，这一次，Muller 认为情况看起来有所不同。尽管谷歌最新的资本支出数据仍然强劲，但投资者指出，微软和 Meta 的支出趋势在环比上有所减弱，微软的资本支出几乎保持 “平稳”，而 Meta 的支出实际上较上个季度有所下降。</p>
</div><p>Using the same historical framework that successfully projected Nvidia's outsized beats in recent quarters, Muller estimates Nvidia could report about $78 billion to $80 billion in quarterly revenue. The problem is that those figures are now largely aligned with analyst consensus rather than meaningfully above it. Muller believes investors are gradually becoming accustomed to Nvidia's huge beats, reducing the scale of upside surprises over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用相同的历史框架，Muller 估计 Nvidia 本季度的收入可能在 780 亿美元到 800 亿美元之间。问题在于，这些数字现在与分析师的共识大致相符，而不是明显高于共识。Muller 认为，投资者逐渐习惯于 Nvidia 的巨大超预期，导致上涨惊喜的幅度随时间缩小。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The margin of surprises is shrinking overall, as analysts get used to beats and investors continue to up their expectations,&#34; Muller explained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Muller 解释道：“惊喜的幅度总体上在缩小，因为分析师习惯了超预期，投资者继续提高他们的预期。”</p>
</div><p>Importantly, Muller made clear that his caution is not rooted in concerns about Nvidia's underlying business quality. In fact, he praised the company's &#34;robust revenue and earnings quality,&#34; while highlighting Nvidia's strong free cash flow generation and improving cash conversion metrics. The investor also pushed back against concerns surrounding receivables, arguing they should be viewed relative to the company's rapidly expanding sales base rather than in isolation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，Muller 明确表示，他的谨慎并不是基于对 Nvidia 基础业务质量的担忧。事实上，他称赞了公司的 “强劲收入和盈利质量”，同时强调 Nvidia 强大的自由现金流生成和改善的现金转化指标。这位投资者还反驳了关于应收账款的担忧，认为应将其与公司快速扩张的销售基础相对比，而不是孤立地看待。</p>
</div><p>At the valuation level, Muller acknowledged that his discounted cash flow assumptions have become more constructive in recent months, helped by improving cash flow expectations and a rising net cash position. Nevertheless, he suggested Nvidia's recent rally has already priced in much of the optimism. While he still views Nvidia as a core long-term holding, he said he would find share prices below $200 more attractive for adding exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在估值层面，Muller 承认，随着现金流预期的改善和净现金头寸的上升，他的折现现金流假设在最近几个月变得更加积极。然而，他表示，Nvidia 最近的反弹已经在很大程度上反映了乐观情绪。尽管他仍然将 Nvidia 视为核心的长期持股，但他表示，如果股价低于 200 美元，他会更愿意增加持仓。</p>
</div><p>For now, Muller remains invested in Nvidia, though he noted he is maintaining an underweight position relative to broader indexes and ETFs ahead of what could become one of the market's most closely watched earnings releases this quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，Muller 仍然持有 Nvidia 的投资，尽管他指出，在可能成为本季度市场最受关注的财报发布之前，他相对于更广泛的指数和 ETF 保持了低配的仓位。</p>
</div><p>To this end, Muller assigns NVDA shares a Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为此，Muller 对 NVDA 股票给予持有（即中性）评级。</p>
</div><p>That's not a very common view on Wall Street. With 40 Buys, and just 1 Hold and Sell, each, NVDA boasts a Strong Buy consensus rating. Its 12-month average price target of $281.59 implies ~27% upside from current levels. (See <strong>NVDA stock forecast</strong>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这在华尔街并不是一个常见的观点。NVDA 拥有 40 个买入评级，仅有 1 个持有和 1 个卖出评级，整体共识评级为强烈买入。其 12 个月的平均目标价为 281.59 美元，意味着从当前水平约有 27% 的上涨空间。（见 <strong>NVDA 股票预测</strong>）</p>
</div>

'Don't Go All In,' Says Investor About Nvidia Stock Ahead of Earnings

- Nvidia 将于本周三发布第一季度财报，预计将面临高期望。  
- 投资者对 Nvidia 未来表现持乐观态度，但分析师的预期已经上升。  
- 财报前，Nvidia 股价已上涨约 11%，反映出市场信心逐渐增强。

投资者在英伟达股票即将公布财报前表示：‘不要全押’