<p>美国四大零售商将在本周公布季度财报，而这些报告最紧迫的问题是，美国人是否终于开始承受不断上涨的价格带来的压力。来自家得宝、Lowe’s、沃尔玛和塔吉特的结果预计将提供美国家庭如何在因油价飙升、顽固的通货膨胀和高企的借贷成本而日益紧张的经济中应对的最清晰快照之一。随着能源价格的上涨继续波及更广泛的经济，推动运输、食品杂货和家庭成本的上升，风险尤其高，而许多消费者已经感到压力重重。经济学家、投资者和记者将分析财务结果及公司领导的相关评论，寻找明显的压力迹象：消费者是否在转向更便宜的产品？是否推迟家庭改善项目？或者是否在优先考虑必需品的同时减少非必要消费？家得宝将在周二东部时间上午 9 点拉开备受关注的财报序幕。高管的评论预计将为消费者信心和住房市场提供早期解读，根据《抵押贷款新闻日报》，周一全国平均抵押贷款利率为 30 年固定贷款的 6.68%。到目前为止，今年春季的早期消费数据表明，消费者的支出状况仍然不错——但并不均衡。根据美国银行研究所最近的报告，4 月份每户家庭的信用卡和借记卡总支出同比增长了 4.8%，是三年来单月增幅最大。但经济学家表示，在表面上的韧性之下，出现了更为明显的分化。所谓的 K 型经济——富裕家庭的支出占整体消费支出的过大份额，而低收入家庭则在挣扎——在最近几个月中加剧。报告发现，低收入和中等收入消费者在餐饮和娱乐等非必要消费类别上越来越缩减支出，而富裕家庭则因股市强劲上涨和房屋净值上升而继续保持健康的消费水平。随着 4 月份的通货膨胀率为 3.8%，高于当月 3.6% 的工资增长率，经济学家警告称，低收入家庭的财务压力可能会加剧。如果这种差距继续扩大，可能会使即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃尔什的政策路径变得复杂。沃尔什已经表示他对美联储的 “体制变革” 持开放态度，他将在持续的通货膨胀可能迫使中央银行维持利率高于几个月前任何人所能想象的水平的情况下，接任这一重要职位——以防止经济过热。美联储提高基准利率直接影响消费者借贷成本，这意味着同样高企的借贷成本将继续给已经在努力应对上涨成本的企业和消费者施加压力。美国银行的经济学家表示：“虽然家庭仍然有一些短期缓冲——包括税收退款和储蓄——但这些缓冲也分布不均，突显了表面韧性与一些家庭所经历的压力之间日益扩大的差距。”</p>

沃尔玛

家得宝

日常消费品 ETF - SPDR

<p>四家主要的美国零售商，包括家得宝和沃尔玛，将在本周公布季度财报，揭示消费者在通货膨胀和高借贷成本下如何应对不断上涨的价格。尽管整体支出有所增加，但出现了分化，富裕家庭的消费增加，而低收入家庭则削减了非必需品的购买。经济学家警告称，低收入家庭面临的财务压力可能加剧，这将使即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什的货币政策更加复杂</p>

<p>Four of America’s largest retailers will report their quarterly earnings this week, and the most pressing question the reports will answer is whether Americans are finally starting to buckle under the weight of rising prices. The results from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart and Target are expected to offer one of the clearest snapshots yet of how U.S. households are navigating an economy increasingly under strain from soaring gas prices, stubborn inflation and elevated borrowing costs. The stakes are especially high as rising energy prices continue to ripple through the broader economy, driving up transportation, grocery and household costs when many consumers are already stretched thin. Economists, investors and journalists will parse the financial results and the accompanying commentary from corporate leaders looking for explicit signs of strain: Are shoppers trading down to cheaper products? Delaying home improvement projects? Or pulling back on discretionary purchases to prioritize essentials? Home Depot kicks off the closely watched earnings parade at 9 a.m. ET Tuesday. Commentary from executives is expected to provide an early read on both consumer confidence and the housing market, in which average mortgage rates nationwide Monday were 6.68% for a 30-year fixed loan, according to Mortgage News Daily. So far this spring, early spending data suggests consumers are still holding up all right — but not evenly. According to a recent report from the Bank of America Institute, total credit and debit card spending per household rose 4.8% in April from a year ago, the strongest single-month increase in three years. But beneath the headline resilience, economists say, an even sharper divide is emerging. The so-called K-shaped economy — in which spending by wealthier households accounts for an outsized share of overall consumer spending while lower-income families struggle — has widened in recent months, according to economists. The report found lower- and middle-income consumers were increasingly pulling back on discretionary spending categories like dining and entertainment, while wealthier households — boosted by strong stock market gains and rising home equity values — continue to spend at a healthy pace. And with inflation running at 3.8% in April, above the wage growth rate of 3.6% that month, economists warn that financial pressure on lower-income households could intensify. And if the gap continues to widen, it could complicate the Federal Reserve’s path under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is expected to be sworn in as the central bank’s next chief Friday. Warsh, who already said he was open to “regime change” at the Fed, will assume the top job when persistent inflation could force the central bank to keep interest rates higher for longer than anyone could have imagined just a few months ago — to prevent the economy from overheating. Higher benchmark interest rates from the Fed have a direct impact on consumer lending costs, which means the same elevated borrowing costs would continue to keep the pressure on businesses and consumers who are already struggling to keep up with rising costs. “While households still have some near‑term buffers — including tax refunds and savings — these too are unevenly distributed, underscoring the growing gap between headline resilience and stress experienced by some households,” Bank of America economists said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国四大零售商将在本周公布季度财报，而这些报告最紧迫的问题是，美国人是否终于开始承受不断上涨的价格带来的压力。来自家得宝、Lowe’s、沃尔玛和塔吉特的结果预计将提供美国家庭如何在因油价飙升、顽固的通货膨胀和高企的借贷成本而日益紧张的经济中应对的最清晰快照之一。随着能源价格的上涨继续波及更广泛的经济，推动运输、食品杂货和家庭成本的上升，风险尤其高，而许多消费者已经感到压力重重。经济学家、投资者和记者将分析财务结果及公司领导的相关评论，寻找明显的压力迹象：消费者是否在转向更便宜的产品？是否推迟家庭改善项目？或者是否在优先考虑必需品的同时减少非必要消费？家得宝将在周二东部时间上午 9 点拉开备受关注的财报序幕。高管的评论预计将为消费者信心和住房市场提供早期解读，根据《抵押贷款新闻日报》，周一全国平均抵押贷款利率为 30 年固定贷款的 6.68%。到目前为止，今年春季的早期消费数据表明，消费者的支出状况仍然不错——但并不均衡。根据美国银行研究所最近的报告，4 月份每户家庭的信用卡和借记卡总支出同比增长了 4.8%，是三年来单月增幅最大。但经济学家表示，在表面上的韧性之下，出现了更为明显的分化。所谓的 K 型经济——富裕家庭的支出占整体消费支出的过大份额，而低收入家庭则在挣扎——在最近几个月中加剧。报告发现，低收入和中等收入消费者在餐饮和娱乐等非必要消费类别上越来越缩减支出，而富裕家庭则因股市强劲上涨和房屋净值上升而继续保持健康的消费水平。随着 4 月份的通货膨胀率为 3.8%，高于当月 3.6% 的工资增长率，经济学家警告称，低收入家庭的财务压力可能会加剧。如果这种差距继续扩大，可能会使即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃尔什的政策路径变得复杂。沃尔什已经表示他对美联储的 “体制变革” 持开放态度，他将在持续的通货膨胀可能迫使中央银行维持利率高于几个月前任何人所能想象的水平的情况下，接任这一重要职位——以防止经济过热。美联储提高基准利率直接影响消费者借贷成本，这意味着同样高企的借贷成本将继续给已经在努力应对上涨成本的企业和消费者施加压力。美国银行的经济学家表示：“虽然家庭仍然有一些短期缓冲——包括税收退款和储蓄——但这些缓冲也分布不均，突显了表面韧性与一些家庭所经历的压力之间日益扩大的差距。”</p>
</div>

Are consumers cracking under the weight of high prices? We’re about to find out.

- 美国四大零售商将公布季度财报，关注消费者受价格上涨压力的情况。  
- 经济学家指出，较高收入家庭消费强劲，而低收入家庭则减少非必要支出。  
- 通胀与工资增长的差距可能加剧低收入家庭的财务压力。

消费者是否在高价格的重压下崩溃？我们很快就会知道答案