<ul>
<li>全球基金经理在 5 月份的股票配置创下纪录新高</li>
<li>仅有 4% 的基金经理认为会出现硬着陆</li>
<li>66% 的受访者预计霍尔木兹海峡的瓶颈将在未来几个月内结束</li>
<li>62% 的受访者目标为 30 年期国债收益率 6%，20% 的受访者目标为 4%</li>
<li>40% 的受访者表示第二波通胀是最大的尾部风险</li>
<li>现金水平从 4.3% 降至 3.9%，为 2024 年 2 月以来最大月度降幅</li>
</ul>
<p>美国银行全球基金经理调查（FMS）是金融界最具影响力的月度报告之一。它对大约 200 到 400 名机构基金经理（管理数千亿美元对冲基金、养老基金和共同基金的人士）进行调查，以了解他们在市场中的定位。</p>
<p>它作为一个逆向指标非常有用。事实上，当市场定位在某一侧过于极端时，激进平仓的风险会增加。市场会惩罚自满。通常会有一个催化剂触发反转，或者多个因素发出拐点的信号。</p>
<p>我想强调标题中的 “仅有 4% 的基金经理认为会出现硬着陆”。我认为这与 “5 月份股票配置创纪录新高” 结合在一起，是市场乐观情绪的最强信号。市场中已经定价了过多的乐观情绪。</p>
<p>尽管第二波通胀现在是最大的尾部风险，但我认为连续的美联储加息会更糟。如果霍尔木兹海峡的情况没有改变，油价保持高位，那么在这种情况下美联储收紧政策将引发股市崩盘，这时硬着陆的概率将迅速上升。</p>
<p>4 月份股市的反弹是由于对美伊协议的积极预期和对负增长恐惧的重新定价，但考虑到现在的风险不对称，5 月份的抛物线式上涨看起来 “非理性”。</p>

<p>美国银行的一项调查显示，只有 4% 的基金经理预期经济将出现硬着陆，而 5 月份股权配置创下新高。尽管 66% 的人预计霍尔木兹海峡的瓶颈将很快得到解决，但对第二波通货膨胀的担忧依然存在。现金水平显著下降，表明市场乐观情绪上升，尽管由于潜在的美联储加息和高企的油价，风险仍然很高</p>

<ul>
<li>Record rise in equity allocations by global fund managers in May</li>
<li>Just 4% of fund managers see hard landing</li>
<li>66% of respondents expect Hormuz bottleneck to end in next few months</li>
<li>62% of respondents target 6% on 30-year treasury yields, 20% target 4%</li>
<li>40% of respondents say second wave of inflation is biggest tail risk</li>
<li>Cash levels drop to 3.9% from 4.3%, biggest monthly drop since February 2024</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>全球基金经理在 5 月份的股票配置创下纪录新高</li>
<li>仅有 4% 的基金经理认为会出现硬着陆</li>
<li>66% 的受访者预计霍尔木兹海峡的瓶颈将在未来几个月内结束</li>
<li>62% 的受访者目标为 30 年期国债收益率 6%，20% 的受访者目标为 4%</li>
<li>40% 的受访者表示第二波通胀是最大的尾部风险</li>
<li>现金水平从 4.3% 降至 3.9%，为 2024 年 2 月以来最大月度降幅</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is one of the most influential monthly reports in the financial world. It polls roughly 200 to 400 institutional fund managers (people managing hundreds of billions of dollars in hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds) to see how they are positioned in the markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行全球基金经理调查（FMS）是金融界最具影响力的月度报告之一。它对大约 200 到 400 名机构基金经理（管理数千亿美元对冲基金、养老基金和共同基金的人士）进行调查，以了解他们在市场中的定位。</p>
</div><p>It's useful as a contrarian indicator. In fact, when positioning gets overstretched on one side or the other, the risk of aggressive unwinding increases. Complacency is punished in the markets. There's generally a catalyst triggering the reversals or just multiple factors signalling an inflection point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它作为一个逆向指标非常有用。事实上，当市场定位在某一侧过于极端时，激进平仓的风险会增加。市场会惩罚自满。通常会有一个催化剂触发反转，或者多个因素发出拐点的信号。</p>
</div><p>I wanted to highlight the &#34;just 4% of fund managers see a hard landing&#34; in the headline. I think that's the strongest signal of market optimism if you couple it with the &#34;record rise in equity allocations in May&#34;. There's too much optimism priced in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我想强调标题中的 “仅有 4% 的基金经理认为会出现硬着陆”。我认为这与 “5 月份股票配置创纪录新高” 结合在一起，是市场乐观情绪的最强信号。市场中已经定价了过多的乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>Although a second wave of inflation is now the biggest tail risk, I would say that consecutive Fed rate hikes would be even worse. If conditions in the Strait of Hormuz don't change and oil prices remain elevated, then Fed tightening into such conditions would trigger a crash in the stock market and that's when the hard landing probabilities will start to climb quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管第二波通胀现在是最大的尾部风险，但我认为连续的美联储加息会更糟。如果霍尔木兹海峡的情况没有改变，油价保持高位，那么在这种情况下美联储收紧政策将引发股市崩盘，这时硬着陆的概率将迅速上升。</p>
</div><p>The stock market rally in April was justified by positive expectations about a US-Iran deal and a repricing of negative growth fears, but the parabolic gains in May look &#34;irrational&#34; given the risk asymmetry now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月份股市的反弹是由于对美伊协议的积极预期和对负增长恐惧的重新定价，但考虑到现在的风险不对称，5 月份的抛物线式上涨看起来 “非理性”。</p>
</div>

Just 4% of fund managers see a hard landing - BofA survey

Investinglive

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BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

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Bank of America Corp

根据 BofA 的调查，仅有 4% 的基金经理预期经济会出现硬着陆