<p>在过去的一年中，市场一直期待全球降息，这得益于强劲的增长和逐渐缓解的通胀。当时，降息一般没有争议。争论的焦点转而集中在降息的时机和幅度上。</p>
<p>中东冲突从根本上改变了这一叙述。能源价格飙升，其影响在全球通胀数据中已经显现。</p>
<p>在三月份，许多主要经济体的年度消费者价格指数通胀率上升，主要是因为能源对通胀的贡献比二月份更大。</p>

<p>市场曾预计由于经济增长强劲和通胀缓解，全球将会降息，但中东冲突改变了这一前景。能源价格的上涨现在显著推动了通胀，正如在三月份主要经济体的消费者物价指数同比增长中所体现的</p>

<p>FOR much of the past year, markets had been looking forward to global rate cuts, supported by resilient growth and gradually easing inflation. At that time, rate cuts were generally not in question. The debate instead centred on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的一年中，市场一直期待全球降息，这得益于强劲的增长和逐渐缓解的通胀。当时，降息一般没有争议。争论的焦点转而集中在降息的时机和幅度上。</p>
</div><p>The Middle East conflict has fundamentally altered this narrative. Energy prices have surged, and the impact is already evident in global inflation data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东冲突从根本上改变了这一叙述。能源价格飙升，其影响在全球通胀数据中已经显现。</p>
</div><p>Year-on-year headline consumer price index inflation rose across many major economies in March, largely because energy contributed more to inflation than it did in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在三月份，许多主要经济体的年度消费者价格指数通胀率上升，主要是因为能源对通胀的贡献比二月份更大。</p>
</div>

准备迎接利率周期的变化