<p>日本经济在年初增长速度远超预期，这为日本银行（BOJ）进一步加息提供了支持，尽管由于中东冲突，前景仍然高度不确定。</p>
<p>根据内阁办公室在周二（5 月 19 日）发布的报告，实际国内生产总值在第一季度按年率增长了 2.1%。这一数据超出了经济学家预测的 1.7% 的增幅，并且较上个季度向下修正后的 0.8% 的增长速度有所加快。强于预期的私人消费和贸易推动了这一加速。</p>
<p>报告显示，经济在 1 月至 3 月期间加速增长，此时伊朗战争的全面影响尚未显现。稳健的扩张为政策制定者提供了论据，认为经济足够强韧，可以承受更高的借贷成本，因为中央银行希望继续正常化政策并应对上行的通胀风险。</p>
<p>这是政策制定者可能希望在中东冲突的间接影响开始显现出更多对增长的压力之前采取的举措。</p>
<p>“政府方面可能会基于这些数据更加开放地接受进一步加息，” 日本邮政保险的高级经济学家冢井隆之表示。“这可能为日本银行在下次 GDP 发布之前，甚至在 6 月或 7 月就加息留出空间。”</p>
<p>尽管增长数据乐观，日元在发布后对美元略微走弱。隔夜掉期基本保持不变，显示中央银行在 6 月加息的可能性约为 77%。</p>
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<p>这一结果恰逢首相高市早苗寻求保持公众和投资者支持的敏感时刻。尽管她呼吁额外预算以支付紧急救助措施和重新启动能源补贴，这将受到公众的广泛欢迎，但她在对这些措施的资金需求上的反复可能会加剧投资者对其财政计划的不确定性。</p>
<p>报告显示，私人消费占日本 GDP 的 50% 以上，按非年化计算增长了 0.3%，超出了 0.1% 的预测。这可能得益于政府的公用事业补贴和工资增长终于开始超过通胀。然而，自战争爆发以来，消费者信心一直在下降。</p>
<p>净出口也比预期对经济提供了更多支持。3 月份的贸易数据显示，随着中国需求的反弹，日本的出口增长速度加快。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p></p>
<h3>日本在通胀担忧上升的情况下引领全球债券市场下跌</h3>
<p>商业投资的增长放缓至 0.3% 的增幅，较上个季度有所下降。财政部 3 月份的企业调查显示，普通利润连续第五个季度增长。全球人工智能热潮以及在劳动力短缺背景下对数字化的需求上升，继续支持企业的投资意愿。</p>
<p>在最近访问日本时，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特谈到了经济的强劲，暗示加息的时机已经成熟。他表示，日本经济 “强劲而有韧性” 的基本面最终将反映在汇率上，并且他对日本银行行长植田和男的工作充满信心。</p>
<p>然而，伊朗战争将如何继续影响日本经济仍有待观察，冲突似乎没有结束的迹象。日本银行已经将当前财政年度的增长预测下调至 0.5%，同时将通胀预测上调至 2.7%。</p>
<p>短期内采取行动可能比稍后采取的措施更可取，后者可能在经济出现压力的证据时受到批评。推迟加息也可能给日元施加压力，政府在最近几周已需要通过多达 640 亿美元的干预来支撑日元。</p>
<p>高市采取的措施以支持因中东危机而面临高能源价格的家庭，应该有助于在未来几个月维持消费。但经济学家指出，潜在的高通胀和较弱的商业信心可能会削弱增长。</p>
<p>“通过这些支持措施，日本可以避免在第二季度陷入负增长，” 冢井表示。“但通胀仍可能对实际消费和投资造成压力。” 彭博社</p>
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日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

南方两倍看多日经

<p>日本经济在第一季度增长了 2.1%，超出预期，增强了日本银行加息的理由。尽管中东冲突带来不确定性，强劲的私人消费和贸易仍然推动了这一增长。经济学家建议，日本银行可能在 6 月或 7 月就会加息，尽管通胀风险和消费者信心仍然是令人担忧的问题。报告发布后，日元略微贬值，日本银行已将其财政年度的增长预测下调至 0.5%，并将通胀预期上调至 2.7%</p>

<p>JAPAN’S economy grew much faster than expected at the start of the year, supporting the case for further Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest-rate hikes, though the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本经济在年初增长速度远超预期，这为日本银行（BOJ）进一步加息提供了支持，尽管由于中东冲突，前景仍然高度不确定。</p>
</div><p>Real gross domestic product expanded 2.1 per cent on an annualised basis in the first quarter, according to a Cabinet Office report on Tuesday (May 19). The reading topped economists’ forecast for a 1.7 per cent increase and marked an acceleration from a downwardly revised growth pace of 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter. Stronger-than-expected private consumption and trade helped power the acceleration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据内阁办公室在周二（5 月 19 日）发布的报告，实际国内生产总值在第一季度按年率增长了 2.1%。这一数据超出了经济学家预测的 1.7% 的增幅，并且较上个季度向下修正后的 0.8% 的增长速度有所加快。强于预期的私人消费和贸易推动了这一加速。</p>
</div><p>The report shows the economy picked up steam in the January-March period, before the full impact of the war in Iran started to play out. The solid expansion gives policymakers scope to argue that the economy is resilient enough to withstand higher borrowing costs as the central bank looks to continue its normalisation of policy and address upward inflation risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告显示，经济在 1 月至 3 月期间加速增长，此时伊朗战争的全面影响尚未显现。稳健的扩张为政策制定者提供了论据，认为经济足够强韧，可以承受更高的借贷成本，因为中央银行希望继续正常化政策并应对上行的通胀风险。</p>
</div><p>That’s a move that policymakers may want to make before the indirect impact of the Middle East conflict starts to show more signs of weighing on growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是政策制定者可能希望在中东冲突的间接影响开始显现出更多对增长的压力之前采取的举措。</p>
</div><p>“The government side may become more open to accepting further rate hikes based on these figures,” said Takayuki Toji, senior economist at Japan Post Insurance. “That could leave room for the BOJ to raise rates even before the next GDP release and as early as June or July.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“政府方面可能会基于这些数据更加开放地接受进一步加息，” 日本邮政保险的高级经济学家冢井隆之表示。“这可能为日本银行在下次 GDP 发布之前，甚至在 6 月或 7 月就加息留出空间。”</p>
</div><p>Despite the bullish growth figures, the yen edged a fraction weaker against the US dollar after the release. Overnight swaps were largely unchanged, showing around a 77 per cent likelihood that the central bank will hike rates in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管增长数据乐观，日元在发布后对美元略微走弱。隔夜掉期基本保持不变，显示中央银行在 6 月加息的可能性约为 77%。</p>
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</div><p>The result comes at a particularly sensitive time for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as she looks to keep the public and investors on her side. While her call for an extra budget to pay for emergency relief measures and renewed energy subsidies will be largely welcomed by a public struggling to cope with inflation, her flip-flop on the need for more funding for the measures may feed into uncertainty about her fiscal plans among investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一结果恰逢首相高市早苗寻求保持公众和投资者支持的敏感时刻。尽管她呼吁额外预算以支付紧急救助措施和重新启动能源补贴，这将受到公众的广泛欢迎，但她在对这些措施的资金需求上的反复可能会加剧投资者对其财政计划的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>The report showed that private consumption, which accounts for more than 50 per cent of Japan’s GDP, increased 0.3 per cent on a non-annualised basis, exceeding a 0.1 per cent forecast. That was likely supported by government utility subsidies and wage growth finally starting to outpace inflation. Still, consumer confidence has been waning since the war broke out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告显示，私人消费占日本 GDP 的 50% 以上，按非年化计算增长了 0.3%，超出了 0.1% 的预测。这可能得益于政府的公用事业补贴和工资增长终于开始超过通胀。然而，自战争爆发以来，消费者信心一直在下降。</p>
</div><p>Net exports also supported the economy by more than expected. March trade data showed that Japan’s exports grew at a faster clip as demand in China rebounded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净出口也比预期对经济提供了更多支持。3 月份的贸易数据显示，随着中国需求的反弹，日本的出口增长速度加快。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><h3>Japan leads global bond markets lower as inflation fears rise</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本在通胀担忧上升的情况下引领全球债券市场下跌</h3>
</div><p>Growth in business investment slowed to a 0.3 per cent gain from the previous quarter. The Finance Ministry’s March corporate survey showed a fifth consecutive quarterly increase in ordinary profits. The global artificial intelligence boom, along with rising demand for digitalisation amid labour shortages, continued to support companies’ appetite for investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商业投资的增长放缓至 0.3% 的增幅，较上个季度有所下降。财政部 3 月份的企业调查显示，普通利润连续第五个季度增长。全球人工智能热潮以及在劳动力短缺背景下对数字化的需求上升，继续支持企业的投资意愿。</p>
</div><p>On his recent visit to Japan, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke of the economy’s strength, hinting that the time was ripe for interest rates to go up. He said the “strong and resilient” fundamentals of Japan’s economy will end up reflected in the exchange rate, and that he has full confidence in the job done by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近访问日本时，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特谈到了经济的强劲，暗示加息的时机已经成熟。他表示，日本经济 “强劲而有韧性” 的基本面最终将反映在汇率上，并且他对日本银行行长植田和男的工作充满信心。</p>
</div><p>Still, it remains to be seen how the war in Iran will continue to impact the Japanese economy with no end to the conflict in sight. The BOJ has already halved its growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 0.5 per cemt, while raising its inflation forecast to 2.7 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，伊朗战争将如何继续影响日本经济仍有待观察，冲突似乎没有结束的迹象。日本银行已经将当前财政年度的增长预测下调至 0.5%，同时将通胀预测上调至 2.7%。</p>
</div><p>Near-term action may be preferable to a later move that might be criticised should evidence of strain on the economy emerge. Holding off on a hike may also heap pressure on a yen that the government has needed to prop up with as much as US$64 billion of intervention in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期内采取行动可能比稍后采取的措施更可取，后者可能在经济出现压力的证据时受到批评。推迟加息也可能给日元施加压力，政府在最近几周已需要通过多达 640 亿美元的干预来支撑日元。</p>
</div><p>Measures that Takaichi takes to support households dealing with elevated energy prices affected by the crisis in the Middle East should help consumption hold up over the coming months. But economists point to the potential for higher inflation and weaker business confidence to dent growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高市采取的措施以支持因中东危机而面临高能源价格的家庭，应该有助于在未来几个月维持消费。但经济学家指出，潜在的高通胀和较弱的商业信心可能会削弱增长。</p>
</div><p>“With those kinds of support measures, Japan can avoid slipping into negative growth in the second quarter,” Toji said. “But inflation can still weigh on real consumption and investment.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通过这些支持措施，日本可以避免在第二季度陷入负增长，” 冢井表示。“但通胀仍可能对实际消费和投资造成压力。” 彭博社</p>
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</div>

Japan’s faster economic growth offers window for BOJ rate hike

- 日本经济年初按年率增长 2.1%，超出预期的 1.7%。  
- 增长得益于私人消费和贸易，政策制定者可能考虑加息。  
- 日元略微走弱，加息概率约为 77%。

日本经济的快速增长为日本央行加息提供了机会