<p>本周五，凯文·沃什将在白宫举行的仪式上宣誓就任美联储主席，由美国总统唐纳德·特朗普主持。</p>
<p>本文的逻辑</p>
<p>I. 沃什组合：降息、缩表与金融改革</p>
<p>II. 沃什主义：美元、人工智能与国家竞争</p>
<p>III. 沃什冲击：预期、定价与市场趋势</p>
<h2>沃什组合：降息、缩表与金融改革</h2>
<p>沃什将采取什么货币政策组合？</p>
<p>由于严格的监管限制了银行创造货币（贷款 - 存款）的能力，市场流动性变得严重依赖于美联储（基础货币）。美联储被迫大规模扩张其资产负债表，而银行则被迫或主动持有大量准备金。</p>
<p>在流动性充裕的时期，美联储采用了利率走廊来控制短期利率，这种方法促成了一个庞大的无风险套利市场。银行可以在货币市场借入廉价资金，然后通过套利将其作为准备金存入美联储。目前，法定准备金已降至零，但超额准备金超过 3 万亿美元。这笔巨额资本长期闲置流通，导致资源配置效率低下，准备金需求曲线趋于平坦。</p>
<p>这削弱了美联储传统的政策工具（利率），并限制了其缩减资产负债表的能力——可能引发准备金恐慌。换句话说，如果不放松对银行的限制，美联储的资产负债表就无法正常化；如果不放松对银行的限制，由资产负债表缩减引发的流动性枯竭风险就无法得到缓解。沃什的任务是通过放松银行监管、降低准备金要求和消除与准备金相关的套利机会，将准备金 “挤入” 信贷市场；同时，他还旨在通过降低利率刺激市场对信贷的需求，并向市场注入流动性。因此，缩表并不等同于紧缩流动性或高利率。</p>

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>凯文·沃什将宣誓就任美联储主席，专注于利率下调、资产负债表缩减和金融改革的货币政策组合。他的做法旨在通过放宽银行监管和刺激信贷需求来增强市场流动性，同时管理美联储的资产负债表以支持美元。这一策略强调 “紧缩货币，宽松信贷”，以应对当前市场挑战</p>

<p>This Friday, Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Chairman of the Federal Reserve at a ceremony held at the White House, presided over by US President Donald Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周五，凯文·沃什将在白宫举行的仪式上宣誓就任美联储主席，由美国总统唐纳德·特朗普主持。</p>
</div><p>This article's logic</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文的逻辑</p>
</div><p>I. The Warsh Mix: Interest Rate Cuts, Balance Sheet Reduction, and Financial Reform</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>I. 沃什组合：降息、缩表与金融改革</p>
</div><p>II. Warshism: The Dollar, AI, and National Competition</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>II. 沃什主义：美元、人工智能与国家竞争</p>
</div><p>III. The Warsh Shock: Expectations, Pricing, and Market Trends</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>III. 沃什冲击：预期、定价与市场趋势</p>
</div><h2>The Warsh Mix: Interest Rate Cuts, Balance Sheet Reduction, and Financial Reform</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃什组合：降息、缩表与金融改革</h2>
</div><p>What monetary policy mix will Warsh adopt?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什将采取什么货币政策组合？</p>
</div><p>Due to stringent regulations restricting banks' ability to create money (loans-deposits), market liquidity has become heavily reliant on the Federal Reserve (base money). The Fed has been forced to massively expand its balance sheet, while banks have been forced or have actively held large amounts of reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于严格的监管限制了银行创造货币（贷款 - 存款）的能力，市场流动性变得严重依赖于美联储（基础货币）。美联储被迫大规模扩张其资产负债表，而银行则被迫或主动持有大量准备金。</p>
</div><p>During periods of ample liquidity, the Fed has adopted an interest rate corridor to control short-term interest rates, a method that has fostered a massive risk-free arbitrage market. Banks can borrow cheap funds in the money market and then deposit them as reserves with the Fed through arbitrage. Currently, required reserves have fallen to zero, but excess reserves exceed $3 trillion. This huge amount of capital has been circulating idly for a long time, resulting in inefficient allocation and a flattening of the reserve demand curve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在流动性充裕的时期，美联储采用了利率走廊来控制短期利率，这种方法促成了一个庞大的无风险套利市场。银行可以在货币市场借入廉价资金，然后通过套利将其作为准备金存入美联储。目前，法定准备金已降至零，但超额准备金超过 3 万亿美元。这笔巨额资本长期闲置流通，导致资源配置效率低下，准备金需求曲线趋于平坦。</p>
</div><p>This weakens the Fed's traditional policy tools (interest rates) and constrains its ability to shrink its balance sheet—potentially triggering a reserve panic. In other words, without easing restrictions on banks, the Fed's balance sheet cannot normalize; without easing restrictions on banks, the risk of liquidity depletion caused by balance sheet reduction cannot be mitigated. Warsh's task was to &#34;squeeze&#34; reserves into the credit market by relaxing bank regulations, lowering reserve requirements, and eliminating arbitrage opportunities related to reserves; simultaneously, he aimed to stimulate market demand for credit and inject liquidity into the market by lowering interest rates. The Warsh combination was &#34;tight money, loose credit,&#34; using the Fed's balance sheet reduction to boost the dollar, and using interest rate cuts and relaxed bank regulations to release credit and create liquidity. Therefore, balance sheet reduction does not equate to tight liquidity or high interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这削弱了美联储传统的政策工具（利率），并限制了其缩减资产负债表的能力——可能引发准备金恐慌。换句话说，如果不放松对银行的限制，美联储的资产负债表就无法正常化；如果不放松对银行的限制，由资产负债表缩减引发的流动性枯竭风险就无法得到缓解。沃什的任务是通过放松银行监管、降低准备金要求和消除与准备金相关的套利机会，将准备金 “挤入” 信贷市场；同时，他还旨在通过降低利率刺激市场对信贷的需求，并向市场注入流动性。因此，缩表并不等同于紧缩流动性或高利率。</p>
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沃什冲击：美国美元、美国股票和美国债券接下来会如何发展？