<p>5 月 19 日：周二，美元上涨，投资者在对中东和平协议的谨慎希望与对美联储可能加息以遏制能源驱动的通胀的担忧之间进行权衡。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周一表示，现在达成限制伊朗核计划协议的&#34;非常好机会&#34;。在伊朗有效关闭霍尔木兹海峡后，油价上涨，美元在 3 月份大幅上涨，这对依赖石油的经济体如日本和欧元区造成压力，同时增加了对美元的避险需求。周二，在特朗普的言论后，油价下跌了 2%。汇丰银行全球外汇研究负责人保罗·麦克尔表示：&#34;美元未能回升至 3 月份的水平有其原因。&#34;他补充道：&#34;值得注意的是，全球风险情绪强劲恢复；美元 OIS（隔夜指数掉期）市场的紧张局势仍然存在，未能定价激进的美联储加息周期；而月度全球增长动能仍然积极。&#34;与此同时，投资者现在预计美联储在 12 月加息的可能性接近 48.5%，而根据 CME FedWatch 工具，预计美联储在 6 月的下一次会议上维持当前利率的可能性为 98.8%。&#34;即使美联储在 6 月发出将采取中性偏向的信号，也可能不足以稳定通胀预期和长期美国国债收益率，&#34;麦夸里集团全球外汇和利率策略师蒂埃里·维兹曼表示。&#34;在 6 月 6 日之前的一小段美联储讲话中，将有机会使美联储的言辞明显转向 ‘鹰派’。&#34;美元指数衡量美元对一篮子六种货币的强度，周一在恐慌缓解后上涨 0.2%，至 99.18，结束了五天的连胜。欧元下跌 0.2%，至 1.1633 美元。日元接近干预区间：美元对日元上涨 0.15%，至 159.10 日元，此前政府数据显示日本经济在第一季度年化增长 2.1%，支持市场对日本央行在 6 月加息的预期。日本财政大臣片山萨津基周一对记者表示，日本准备对过度的外汇波动采取行动，同时确保任何支持日元和抛售美元的干预方式不会推高美国国债收益率。投资者一直在关注进一步支持日元的干预迹象，日元略强于日本官员上个月首次进入市场近两年来的水平。澳元在 5 月 5 日澳大利亚储备银行会议纪要发布后下跌 0.5%，至 0.71345 美元。由于与澳元的联动，新西兰元下跌 0.4%，至 0.5854 美元。美元在离岸交易中对人民币上涨 0.1%，至 6.8031 元。</p>

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

<p>美国美元上涨，因为投资者在对中东和平协议的希望与对美联储加息以应对通胀的担忧之间进行权衡。特朗普总统表示与伊朗达成协议的机会很大，这影响了油价和对美元的避险需求。目前市场预期显示，12 月份加息的概率为 48.5%，而 6 月份维持利率不变的可能性为 98.8%。美元指数上涨 0.2%，至 99.18，而欧元和澳大利亚元对美元则下跌</p>

<p>May 19 : The U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday as investors balanced cautious hopes for a Middle East peace deal against concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise rates to curb energy-driven inflation. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday there was now a &#34;very good chance&#34; of reaching a deal limiting Iran's nuclear program. The dollar jumped in March after Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, weighing on oil-dependent economies such as Japan and the euro area while increasing safe-haven demand for the greenback. Oil prices fell 2 per cent on Tuesday after Trump's remarks. &#34;There are reasons why the dollar has not strengthened back to the levels seen in March,” Paul Mackel, global head of forex research at HSBC, said. &#34;Notably, global risk sentiment has recovered strongly; tension remains in USD OIS (overnight index swaps) markets which have stopped short of pricing an aggressive Fed hiking cycle; and monthly global growth momentum is still positive,&#34; he added. At the same time, investors are now pricing in almost a 48.5 per cent chance that the Fed could raise rates in December, and a 98.8 per cent chance it maintains current rates at its next meeting in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. &#34;Even if the Fed moves to signal that it will adopt a neutral bias in June, it may not be enough to stabilize inflation expectations and long-term U.S. Treasury yields,&#34; said Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Group’s global foreign exchange and rates strategist. &#34;An opportunity to change the Fed's rhetoric decidedly toward 'hawkish' will come with the small flurry of Fed speeches, between now and June 6,&#34; he added. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.2 per cent at 99.18, after snapping a five-day winning streak on Monday as fears eased of an escalation in the war. The euro was down 0.2 per cent at $1.1633. YEN NEAR INTERVENTION ZONE Against the yen, the U.S. dollar was up 0.15 per cent at 159.10 yen after government data showed on Tuesday that Japan's economy grew by an annualised 2.1 per cent in the first quarter, supporting expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in June. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told reporters on Monday that Japan stands ready to act against excessive foreign exchange volatility, while ensuring that any intervention to support the yen and sell dollars is conducted in a way that avoids pushing up U.S. Treasury yields. Investors have been on watch for further signs of intervention to support the yen, which is a little stronger than it was before Japanese officials last month began their first foray into the market in almost two years. The Australian dollar was down 0.5 per cent at $0.71345 after the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting on May 5. The kiwi slipped 0.4 per cent to $0.5854 in sympathy with the Aussie. Against the Chinese yuan, the U.S. dollar was up 0.1 per cent at 6.8031 yuan in offshore trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>5 月 19 日：周二，美元上涨，投资者在对中东和平协议的谨慎希望与对美联储可能加息以遏制能源驱动的通胀的担忧之间进行权衡。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周一表示，现在达成限制伊朗核计划协议的&#34;非常好机会&#34;。在伊朗有效关闭霍尔木兹海峡后，油价上涨，美元在 3 月份大幅上涨，这对依赖石油的经济体如日本和欧元区造成压力，同时增加了对美元的避险需求。周二，在特朗普的言论后，油价下跌了 2%。汇丰银行全球外汇研究负责人保罗·麦克尔表示：&#34;美元未能回升至 3 月份的水平有其原因。&#34;他补充道：&#34;值得注意的是，全球风险情绪强劲恢复；美元 OIS（隔夜指数掉期）市场的紧张局势仍然存在，未能定价激进的美联储加息周期；而月度全球增长动能仍然积极。&#34;与此同时，投资者现在预计美联储在 12 月加息的可能性接近 48.5%，而根据 CME FedWatch 工具，预计美联储在 6 月的下一次会议上维持当前利率的可能性为 98.8%。&#34;即使美联储在 6 月发出将采取中性偏向的信号，也可能不足以稳定通胀预期和长期美国国债收益率，&#34;麦夸里集团全球外汇和利率策略师蒂埃里·维兹曼表示。&#34;在 6 月 6 日之前的一小段美联储讲话中，将有机会使美联储的言辞明显转向 ‘鹰派’。&#34;美元指数衡量美元对一篮子六种货币的强度，周一在恐慌缓解后上涨 0.2%，至 99.18，结束了五天的连胜。欧元下跌 0.2%，至 1.1633 美元。日元接近干预区间：美元对日元上涨 0.15%，至 159.10 日元，此前政府数据显示日本经济在第一季度年化增长 2.1%，支持市场对日本央行在 6 月加息的预期。日本财政大臣片山萨津基周一对记者表示，日本准备对过度的外汇波动采取行动，同时确保任何支持日元和抛售美元的干预方式不会推高美国国债收益率。投资者一直在关注进一步支持日元的干预迹象，日元略强于日本官员上个月首次进入市场近两年来的水平。澳元在 5 月 5 日澳大利亚储备银行会议纪要发布后下跌 0.5%，至 0.71345 美元。由于与澳元的联动，新西兰元下跌 0.4%，至 0.5854 美元。美元在离岸交易中对人民币上涨 0.1%，至 6.8031 元。</p>
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Dollar edges up as investors weigh Iran peace hopes against Fed rate outlook

汇丰

美元小幅上涨，投资者在伊朗和平希望与美联储利率前景之间进行权衡