<h2>基本面概述</h2>
<p>尽管美国与伊朗之间的僵局持续以及霍尔木兹海峡关闭，纳斯达克仍在不断创下新高。四月份的反弹得益于美国与伊朗紧张局势的缓解、对外交解决方案的持续推动，而不是另一场全面战争，以及对最终达成协议的预期。</p>
<p>现在，我们可能正接近一个拐点，从不对称的角度来看，短期基本面正在转向看跌。</p>
<p>事实上，支持股市的并不仅仅是美国与伊朗的降温，还有美联储的宽松倾向。这导致金融条件的放松，即使没有降息，实际收益率也下降了。</p>
<p>现在面临两个主要风险：战争的重新爆发和美联储的鹰派立场。昨天，我们收到伊朗的报道，称美国将提议暂时豁免制裁。这在短期内帮助了股市，但在美国官员否认这些报道后，涨幅迅速回落。</p>
<p>此外，特朗普在 Truth Social 上表示，针对伊朗的大规模军事打击因海湾领导人的请求而暂停，以便继续进行和平谈判。他补充说，现在达成协议的 “机会很大”。尽管特朗普发布了这一消息，市场却未能反弹。这可能是疲软的信号。</p>
<p>如果我们确实达成官方解决方案，霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放可能会在短期内给纳斯达克带来另一个推动，因为油价可能会下降，降息的预期将增加。然而，之后的关注将迅速转回美联储和经济数据。</p>
<p>随着战争的结束和霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放，经济活动的增加可能会使通胀在更长时间内保持高位，并最终需要加息。</p>
<p>今天，我们收到了美国银行的基金经理调查，其中 “仅有 4% 的基金经理认为未来会出现硬着陆”。我认为，如果将其与 “五月份股票配置的创纪录上升” 结合起来，这发出了过于乐观的强烈信号。市场中已经定价了太多的好消息。</p>
<p>尽管第二波通胀现在是最大的尾部风险，但连续的美联储加息将更糟。如果霍尔木兹海峡的情况没有改变，油价保持高位，那么在这种情况下美联储收紧政策将引发股市崩盘，而这时硬着陆的概率将迅速上升。</p>
<h2>纳斯达克技术分析 – 日线图</h2>
<p>在日线图上，我们可以看到强劲的看涨动能终于停滞。纳斯达克现在在 28,800 水平上方整合。从风险管理的角度来看，买家显然在 26,400 水平附近有更好的风险回报设置，但我们可能需要更鹰派的美联储或美国与伊朗局势的升级来触发如此大的修正。</p>
<h2>纳斯达克技术分析 – 4 小时图</h2>
<p>在 4 小时图上，我们可以看到价格突破了自这场惊人反弹开始以来定义看涨动能的上升趋势线。这一整合看起来像是一个头肩形态，目标接近 27,600 水平。我们可以预期买家将在 28,800 颈线附近介入，并在其下方设定明确的风险，以继续推动新高，而卖家则会寻找突破以便在 27,600 水平进行回调。</p>
<h2>纳斯达克技术分析 – 1 小时图</h2>
<p>在 1 小时图上，我们有一条小的下行趋势线，定义了当前对 28,800 支撑的回调。如果我们在支撑位附近反弹，我们可以预期卖家会依赖趋势线，并在其上方设定明确的风险，以便在支撑位回落并瞄准突破。另一方面，买家将寻找向上突破，以增加对新纪录高点的看涨押注。红线定义了今天的平均日内波动范围。</p>
<h2>即将到来的催化剂</h2>
<p>今天，我们有美联储的沃勒发言。明天，我们将发布 FOMC 会议纪要。周四，我们将获得最新的美国失业救济申请数据和美国闪电 PMI。</p>

纳斯达克综合指数

纳斯达克综合指数 ETF - Fidelity

纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克 100 平均加权指数 ETF - First Trust

2 倍做多纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - ProShares

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>纳斯达克近期的上涨势头正在减弱，因为短期基本面在美国与伊朗局势的风险以及美联储可能采取鹰派立场的影响下变得悲观。尽管之前因紧张局势缓解和美联储态度友好而获得的涨幅，市场乐观情绪可能过于乐观。技术分析显示，市场在 28,800 附近整固，可能会回调至 27,600。即将发布的经济数据和美联储的沟通可能会影响市场方向</p>

<h2>FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基本面概述</h2>
</div><p>The Nasdaq has been surging into new record highs despite the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The rally in April was justified by easing US-Iran tensions, the constant push for a diplomatic resolution instead of another full-fledged war and expectations that a deal would be reached eventually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美国与伊朗之间的僵局持续以及霍尔木兹海峡关闭，纳斯达克仍在不断创下新高。四月份的反弹得益于美国与伊朗紧张局势的缓解、对外交解决方案的持续推动，而不是另一场全面战争，以及对最终达成协议的预期。</p>
</div><p>Now, we are likely approaching an inflection point as from an asymmetric point of view, the near-term fundamentals are turning bearish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，我们可能正接近一个拐点，从不对称的角度来看，短期基本面正在转向看跌。</p>
</div><p>In fact, it wasn’t just the US-Iran de-escalation supporting the stock market, but also the Federal Reserve’s easing bias. This has led to an easing in financial conditions even without rate cuts as real yields fell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，支持股市的并不仅仅是美国与伊朗的降温，还有美联储的宽松倾向。这导致金融条件的放松，即使没有降息，实际收益率也下降了。</p>
</div><p>Now there are two main risks ahead: the restart of the war and a hawkish Fed. Yesterday, we had Iranian reports saying that the US would propose a temporary waiver to sanctions. That helped stocks for a bit, but the gains were quickly pared after US officials denied the reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在面临两个主要风险：战争的重新爆发和美联储的鹰派立场。昨天，我们收到伊朗的报道，称美国将提议暂时豁免制裁。这在短期内帮助了股市，但在美国官员否认这些报道后，涨幅迅速回落。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Trump said on Truth Social that a large-scale military strike against Iran got suspended at the request of Gulf leaders to allow for peace talks to continue. He added that there is a &#34;good chance&#34; of a deal now. Despite Trump’s post, the market failed to rally. This might be a signal of exhaustion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特朗普在 Truth Social 上表示，针对伊朗的大规模军事打击因海湾领导人的请求而暂停，以便继续进行和平谈判。他补充说，现在达成协议的 “机会很大”。尽管特朗普发布了这一消息，市场却未能反弹。这可能是疲软的信号。</p>
</div><p>If we do get an official resolution, the reopening of the Strait could give the Nasdaq another boost in the short-term as oil prices will likely fall and rate cut bets will increase. After that though, the focus will quickly turn back to the Fed and the economic data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我们确实达成官方解决方案，霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放可能会在短期内给纳斯达克带来另一个推动，因为油价可能会下降，降息的预期将增加。然而，之后的关注将迅速转回美联储和经济数据。</p>
</div><p>With the end of the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the increase in economic activity could keep inflation higher for longer and eventually require rate hikes anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着战争的结束和霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放，经济活动的增加可能会使通胀在更长时间内保持高位，并最终需要加息。</p>
</div><p>Today, we got the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey where “just 4% of fund managers see a hard landing” ahead. I think that's the strongest signal of too much optimism if you couple it with the &#34;record rise in equity allocations in May&#34;. There's too much good news priced into the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我们收到了美国银行的基金经理调查，其中 “仅有 4% 的基金经理认为未来会出现硬着陆”。我认为，如果将其与 “五月份股票配置的创纪录上升” 结合起来，这发出了过于乐观的强烈信号。市场中已经定价了太多的好消息。</p>
</div><p>Although a second wave of inflation is now the biggest tail risk, consecutive Fed rate hikes would be even worse. If conditions in the Strait of Hormuz don't change and oil prices remain elevated, then Fed tightening into such conditions would trigger a crash in the stock market and that's when the hard landing probabilities will start to climb quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管第二波通胀现在是最大的尾部风险，但连续的美联储加息将更糟。如果霍尔木兹海峡的情况没有改变，油价保持高位，那么在这种情况下美联储收紧政策将引发股市崩盘，而这时硬着陆的概率将迅速上升。</p>
</div><h2>NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>纳斯达克技术分析 – 日线图</h2>
</div><p>On the daily chart, we can see the strong bullish momentum has finally stalled. The Nasdaq is now consolidating above the 28,800 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers would obviously have a much better risk to reward setup around the 26,400 level but we will likely need a more hawkish Fed or an escalation on the US-Iran front to trigger such a major correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日线图上，我们可以看到强劲的看涨动能终于停滞。纳斯达克现在在 28,800 水平上方整合。从风险管理的角度来看，买家显然在 26,400 水平附近有更好的风险回报设置，但我们可能需要更鹰派的美联储或美国与伊朗局势的升级来触发如此大的修正。</p>
</div><h2>NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>纳斯达克技术分析 – 4 小时图</h2>
</div><p>On the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke below the upward trendline that was defining the bullish momentum since the start of this incredible rally. This consolidation looks like a head and shoulders pattern with the target near the 27,600 level. We can expect the buyers to step in around the 28,800 neckline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to pile in for a pullback into the 27,600 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 小时图上，我们可以看到价格突破了自这场惊人反弹开始以来定义看涨动能的上升趋势线。这一整合看起来像是一个头肩形态，目标接近 27,600 水平。我们可以预期买家将在 28,800 颈线附近介入，并在其下方设定明确的风险，以继续推动新高，而卖家则会寻找突破以便在 27,600 水平进行回调。</p>
</div><h2>NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>纳斯达克技术分析 – 1 小时图</h2>
</div><p>On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback into the 28,800 support. If we get a bounce around the support, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the support targeting a breakout. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs. The red lines define average daily range for today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1 小时图上，我们有一条小的下行趋势线，定义了当前对 28,800 支撑的回调。如果我们在支撑位附近反弹，我们可以预期卖家会依赖趋势线，并在其上方设定明确的风险，以便在支撑位回落并瞄准突破。另一方面，买家将寻找向上突破，以增加对新纪录高点的看涨押注。红线定义了今天的平均日内波动范围。</p>
</div><h2>UPCOMING CATALYSTS</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>即将到来的催化剂</h2>
</div><p>Today, we have Fed’s Waller speaking. Tomorrow, we have the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US Flash PMIs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我们有美联储的沃勒发言。明天，我们将发布 FOMC 会议纪要。周四，我们将获得最新的美国失业救济申请数据和美国闪电 PMI。</p>
</div>

Nasdaq's bullish momentum stalls as downside risks mount: pause or start of a correction?

Investinglive

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随着下行风险的增加，纳斯达克的看涨势头是否会停滞：这是暂时的停顿还是修正的开始？