<p>作者：Tomi Kilgore</p>
<p>与 “爆炸性” 突破的替代方案可能是收益率再上升一点，足以导致经济恶化并降低收益率。这更好吗？</p>
<p>这个 “旗形” 图表模式警告称，国债收益率可能会大幅上升。</p>
<p>一代投资者只知道一件事：长期利率——如果你等待，收益率会降低。现在有理由担心，情况可能正好相反。</p>
<p>有许多图表被技术分析师称为当前市场环境中最令人担忧的，但有一个图表可能是最糟糕的——基准 10 年期国债收益率的非常长期图表 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y。</p>
<p>这个图表的关键在于过去几年形成的 “旗形” 整合模式，这表明收益率可能会在更长时间内大幅上升。</p>
<p>这很重要，因为 10 年期收益率影响着一切的利率，从大型科技公司发行的债券收益率以支付人工智能建设，到抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡的利率。</p>
<p>阅读：债券市场对美联储发出警告：尽快认真对待通胀和潜在的加息。</p>
<p>“这种风险非常真实，我们可能会在短期内继续看到更高的利率，甚至可能是大幅更高的利率，” ICAP 技术分析师 Brian LaRose 在网络研讨会上表示。</p>
<p>10 年期收益率从 2020 年因 COVID 而导致的约 0.5% 的低点飙升至 2023 年 10 月中旬接近 5% 的峰值。从那时起，收益率一直在收敛，形成一个看起来像旗形的窄幅区间，出现了更低的高点和更高的低点。</p>
<p>旗形被视为延续模式，这意味着图表中的工具倾向于沿着之前的趋势方向突破。</p>
<p>对于 10 年期收益率来说，这意味着突破将朝着上升的 “旗杆” 方向进行。</p>
<p>对于 ICAP 的 LaRose 来说，牛市的情况——如果旗形按照通常的方式完成，并在下降的顶部趋势线之上突破——是收益率不会止步于 2023 年 10 月的高点约 5%，甚至略高于 5.5%。</p>
<p>另请阅读：随着 Kevin Warsh 接任美联储新主席，债券市场已经开始加息。</p>
<p>他认为存在爆炸性上升的风险，范围在 6.25% 到 6.8% 之间，甚至可能高达 8.1% 到 8.6%。他称之为 “公交车轮子脱落” 的情景。</p>
<p>LaRose 对这种情景的担忧在于，过去这只是一个技术观点，但当前的模式伴随着一个 “重大催化剂”——由于中东冲突导致的能源价格上涨。</p>
<p>而且，收益率的上升不仅仅是美国现象，全球各国的政府债券收益率，如英国国债、德国国债和日本国债，已经上涨至多年高点。</p>
<p>与此同时，美国 10 年期图表的真正担忧不仅仅是旗形模式，而是当你放大视角，从代际的角度来看。</p>
<p>许多图表观察者认为，旗形往往出现在趋势的中间。因此，如果模式像往常一样发展，图表观察者通常会提出一个 “测量移动” 目标，这意味着他们通过将旗杆的长度加到突破点来估计潜在的移动。</p>
<p>10 年期图表显示，旗杆的高度约为 4.5 个百分点。如果将其加到突破点，可能在未来一周达到 4.60% 的区域，测量移动目标将是 9.1%。</p>
<p>如果你计算旗杆到底部旗形的长度，正如一些技术分析师所做的，向上的目标将约为 7.4%。</p>
<p>无论如何，结果都相当可怕，因为随着公司借贷成本的上升，它们生产的成本也会相应上升以弥补差额。</p>
<p>还有另一种潜在的情景，可能以不同的方式令人担忧。</p>
<p>虽然 LaRose 认为短期内风险在于更高的利率，但他说他 “并不一定相信” 存在决定性和爆炸性的向上突破的观点。</p>
<p>他认为 10 年期国债收益率可能会略微上升，达到 5% 到 5.5% 的范围。但在这个水平上，经济可能仍会受到足够的伤害，以至于利率最终朝相反方向发展。</p>
<p>基本上，要小心你所希望的。</p>
<p>“市场被推向极端，经济条件迅速恶化，因此我们会经历经济收缩，” LaRose 说。“我们会经历动荡，股市大幅回落，利率也会因此大幅降低。”</p>
<p>-Tomi Kilgore</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>05-19-26 0651ET</p>

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<p>一项新的分析警告称，国债收益率可能会显著上升，这可能导致经济恶化。'三角旗'图表模式表明，突破可能会将 10 年期收益率推高至超过 5%，甚至可能达到 6.25% 至 8.6%。利率的上升可能会增加公司的借贷成本，从而影响生产成本。尽管一些分析师预测收益率会略有上升，但他们警告称，经济状况可能会恶化，导致未来出现收缩和利率降低</p>

<p>By Tomi Kilgore</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Tomi Kilgore</p>
</div><p>The alternative to an 'explosive' breakout could be that yields rise a little more, enough to cause economic deterioration and lower yields. Is that better?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 “爆炸性” 突破的替代方案可能是收益率再上升一点，足以导致经济恶化并降低收益率。这更好吗？</p>
</div><p>This &#34;pennant&#34; chart pattern warns that Treasury yields could be headed much higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个 “旗形” 图表模式警告称，国债收益率可能会大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>A generation of investors have known only one thing about long-term interest rates - if you wait, yields will go lower. There's now reason to worry that the opposite may be true.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一代投资者只知道一件事：长期利率——如果你等待，收益率会降低。现在有理由担心，情况可能正好相反。</p>
</div><p>There are many charts that technicians have claimed to be the most worrisome in the current market environment, but there's one that likely takes the cake - a very long-term chart of the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有许多图表被技术分析师称为当前市场环境中最令人担忧的，但有一个图表可能是最糟糕的——基准 10 年期国债收益率的非常长期图表 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y。</p>
</div><p>The key to this chart is what is known as a &#34;pennant&#34; consolidation pattern that has formed over the past few years, that suggests yields could be headed much higher for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个图表的关键在于过去几年形成的 “旗形” 整合模式，这表明收益率可能会在更长时间内大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>The reason that matters is that the 10-year yield influences rates on everything, from yields on bonds issued by Big Tech companies to pay for the artificial-intelligence buildout, to rates on mortgages, car loans and credit cards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很重要，因为 10 年期收益率影响着一切的利率，从大型科技公司发行的债券收益率以支付人工智能建设，到抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡的利率。</p>
</div><p>Read: The bond market has a warning for the Fed: Get serious about inflation and potential rate hikes ASAP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：债券市场对美联储发出警告：尽快认真对待通胀和潜在的加息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This risk is very real that we continue to see higher rates here, at least over the short run, perhaps even substantially higher rates,&#34; said Brian LaRose, technical analyst at ICAP Technical Analysis, in a webcast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这种风险非常真实，我们可能会在短期内继续看到更高的利率，甚至可能是大幅更高的利率，” ICAP 技术分析师 Brian LaRose 在网络研讨会上表示。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year yield had soared off the COVID-induced bottom of around 0.5% in 2020 to a peak a touch shy of 5% in mid-October 2023. The yield has been consolidating with a narrowing range that looks like a pennant, with lower highs and higher lows, since then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期收益率从 2020 年因 COVID 而导致的约 0.5% 的低点飙升至 2023 年 10 月中旬接近 5% 的峰值。从那时起，收益率一直在收敛，形成一个看起来像旗形的窄幅区间，出现了更低的高点和更高的低点。</p>
</div><p>Pennants are viewed as continuation patterns, which means the charted instrument tends to break out in the direction of the trend that preceded it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>旗形被视为延续模式，这意味着图表中的工具倾向于沿着之前的趋势方向突破。</p>
</div><p>For the 10-year yield, that means the breakout would come in the direction of the rising &#34;flagpole.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 10 年期收益率来说，这意味着突破将朝着上升的 “旗杆” 方向进行。</p>
</div><p>For ICAP's LaRose, the bull case - if the pennant is completed in usual fashion with a breakout above the falling top trendline - is that the yield doesn't stop at the October 2023 high around 5%, or even a little higher at 5.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 ICAP 的 LaRose 来说，牛市的情况——如果旗形按照通常的方式完成，并在下降的顶部趋势线之上突破——是收益率不会止步于 2023 年 10 月的高点约 5%，甚至略高于 5.5%。</p>
</div><p>Also read: The bond market is already hiking rates as Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed's new chair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：随着 Kevin Warsh 接任美联储新主席，债券市场已经开始加息。</p>
</div><p>He believes there's a risk of an explosive move higher, to a range of 6.25% to 6.8%, and perhaps as high as 8.1% to 8.6%. He would call that the &#34;wheels come off the bus&#34; scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他认为存在爆炸性上升的风险，范围在 6.25% 到 6.8% 之间，甚至可能高达 8.1% 到 8.6%。他称之为 “公交车轮子脱落” 的情景。</p>
</div><p>What worries LaRose about this scenario was that in the past it would have been just a technical view, but the current pattern has developed along with a &#34;major catalyst&#34; - rising energy prices resulting from the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LaRose 对这种情景的担忧在于，过去这只是一个技术观点，但当前的模式伴随着一个 “重大催化剂”——由于中东冲突导致的能源价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>And the yield rise isn't just a U.S. phenomenon, as government bond yields around the world, such as on the U.K.'s gilts, Germany's bunds and Japan's JGBs, have run up to multi-year highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，收益率的上升不仅仅是美国现象，全球各国的政府债券收益率，如英国国债、德国国债和日本国债，已经上涨至多年高点。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the real worry about the U.S. 10-year chart isn't just the pennant pattern, it comes when you zoom way out, to put it in a generational perspective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美国 10 年期图表的真正担忧不仅仅是旗形模式，而是当你放大视角，从代际的角度来看。</p>
</div><p>Many chart watchers believe pennants tend to appear around the middle of a trend. So as if the pattern plays out as usual, chart watchers often present a &#34;measured move&#34; target, meaning they estimate the potential move by adding the length of the flagpole to the point of the breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多图表观察者认为，旗形往往出现在趋势的中间。因此，如果模式像往常一样发展，图表观察者通常会提出一个 “测量移动” 目标，这意味着他们通过将旗杆的长度加到突破点来估计潜在的移动。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year chart shows the flagpole being about 4.5 percentage points in height. If that is added to the point of the breakout, which could be in the area of 4.60% in the coming week, the measured move target would be 9.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期图表显示，旗杆的高度约为 4.5 个百分点。如果将其加到突破点，可能在未来一周达到 4.60% 的区域，测量移动目标将是 9.1%。</p>
</div><p>If you calculate the length of the flagpole to the bottom pennant, as some technicians do, the upside target would be about 7.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你计算旗杆到底部旗形的长度，正如一些技术分析师所做的，向上的目标将约为 7.4%。</p>
</div><p>Either way, the outcome would be pretty scary, because as borrowing costs for companies rise, the costs for what they produce will also rise to make up the difference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，结果都相当可怕，因为随着公司借贷成本的上升，它们生产的成本也会相应上升以弥补差额。</p>
</div><p>There is another potential scenario that could be scary in a different way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有另一种潜在的情景，可能以不同的方式令人担忧。</p>
</div><p>While LaRose believes the risk in the short term is for higher rates, he said he's &#34;not necessarily sold&#34; on the notion that there's a decisive and explosive breakout to the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 LaRose 认为短期内风险在于更高的利率，但他说他 “并不一定相信” 存在决定性和爆炸性的向上突破的观点。</p>
</div><p>He believes the 10-year Treasury yield could rise slightly, into the 5% to 5.5% range. But at that level, the economy could still be hurt enough that rates end up heading in the opposite direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他认为 10 年期国债收益率可能会略微上升，达到 5% 到 5.5% 的范围。但在这个水平上，经济可能仍会受到足够的伤害，以至于利率最终朝相反方向发展。</p>
</div><p>Basically, be careful what you wish for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基本上，要小心你所希望的。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Market gets pushed to extremes, economic conditions deteriorate rapidly, as a result we get economic contraction,&#34; LaRose said. &#34;We get turmoil, we get equity markets pulling back significantly, we get rates reduced significantly as a result.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市场被推向极端，经济条件迅速恶化，因此我们会经历经济收缩，” LaRose 说。“我们会经历动荡，股市大幅回落，利率也会因此大幅降低。”</p>
</div><p>-Tomi Kilgore</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Tomi Kilgore</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 0651ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 0651ET</p>
</div>

这些图表向下一代发出警告：一个更高利率的新时代可能即将来临