<p>作者：Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<p>Evercore 表示 “低杠杆领导者” 是关键</p>
<p>Monster Beverage 是一个 “低杠杆” 领导者，Evercore 表示，它可能为投资者提供在可能即将到来的债券和石油风暴中的避风港。</p>
<p>对更高债券收益率和通货膨胀的担忧最近对标普 500 造成了影响，该指数可能在周二迎来连续第三个下跌交易日。虽然这还不是令人担忧的趋势，但担忧正在上升。</p>
<p>例如，巴克莱警告称，涌入股票的巨额资金可能会同样迅速地流出。与此同时，Evercore 的今日观点指出，油价和债券收益率上升带来了明显威胁，警告投资者在进入这个可能颠簸的时期时保护措施不足。</p>
<p>Evercore ISI 团队的高级董事朱利安·埃曼纽尔表示：“自 3 月 30 日低点以来，广泛的股市反弹令人印象深刻，决定性地创造了自 1982 年牛市超级周期开始以来罕见的动量新纪录。”</p>
<p>他们认为 “长期上涨潜力” 依然存在，因为即使在 3 月市场下滑时，防御性股票表现不佳，意味着投资者在应对这种回调时表现得相对从容。4 月的强劲反弹也与历史上类似的反弹相比较，通常会随之而来更多的涨幅。</p>
<p>然而，Evercore 表示：“油价和收益率的上升带来了短期障碍。” 创始人罗杰·阿尔特曼在前一天警告称，石油市场正达到一个 “临界点”，可能将价格推高至每桶 150 美元，并对经济造成冲击。</p>
<p>埃曼纽尔及其同事表示，只要 WTI 原油价格保持在每桶 100 美元以上，10 年期收益率超过 4.5%，股票的风险就会不断增加。如果油价在 7 月 4 日假期之前没有缓解，他们认为消费者和经济面临特别风险。</p>
<p>目前特别危险的是投资者缺乏保护。在 3 月，投资者通过股票指数看跌期权购买了保护——在特定价格和特定日期出售的权利。因此，这种对下跌的保护使他们避免了在恐慌中抛售股票，而随后的保护撤回为 4 月的反弹提供了动力。</p>
<p>由于投资者保护措施有所降低，Evercore 表示，他们现在建议 “减缓对低防御性股票的投资”——例如表现强劲的科技股。相反，他们保持对低杠杆股票的长期倾斜，这些股票没有高债务，在利率上升时不会造成担忧。后者在今年市场的起伏中表现出相对一致的 “全气候超越”。</p>
<p>低杠杆股票还提供了 “对潜在重演互联网泡沫时代领导地位的曝光”，因为这一因素在互联网泡沫高峰期表现突出，聪明的投资者开始购买财务状况较好的公司。</p>
<p>Evercore 表示，他们已更新筛选条件，以寻找在罗素 3000 RUA 中低杠杆股票的潜在超越者，基于销售和每股收益修正，以及市值超过 5 亿美元的公司。他们还扫描了罗素 3000 中类似规模的高债务和较差修正的公司。</p>
<p>以下是他们偏好的 “低杠杆领导者”：</p>
<p>来源：Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
<p>以下是他们标记的一些 “低杠杆滞后者”：</p>
<p>来源：Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
<p>市场动态</p>
<p>美国股指期货（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）正在下跌，10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 上升至 4.609%。布伦特原油（BRN00）下跌近 2%。</p>
<p>市场热议</p>
<p>家得宝（HD）保持全年展望不变，股价上涨。</p>
<p>谷歌母公司 Alphabet（GOOGL）与黑石（BX）联手创建一家人工智能云公司，后者投资 50 亿美元。</p>
<p>特朗普总统在 Truth Social 上表示，应海湾盟友的请求，他取消了原定于周二对伊朗的打击，以便为 “严肃谈判” 留出时间。</p>
<p>4 月份待售房屋数据将在上午 10 点公布。在此之前，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒将在上午 8 点发言。</p>
<p>网络精选</p>
<p>特朗普的国税局和解包括一个 18 亿美元的 “反武器化” 基金，供盟友使用。以下是可能获得资金的人。</p>
<p>神秘的加密法官解决了多市场争议</p>
<p>埃博拉在刚果肆虐数周，才有人发出警报</p>
<p>图表</p>
<p>美国银行 5 月份的全球基金经理调查显示，股票配置创下纪录增长，现金水平大幅下降，主要受益于盈利乐观和对美联储降息的预期。请注意，近期美联储面临的压力正在增加，因对油价上涨的通胀担忧。美国银行警告称，鉴于几乎所有空头现在都已重返股市，6 月初可能 “适合获利了结”。</p>
<p>热门股票</p>
<p>截至上午 6 点，MarketWatch 上搜索最多的股票代码如下：</p>
<p>随机阅读</p>
<p>红牌，美国足球迷的安慰披萨。</p>
<p>皇家骑警抓住了偷热狗的狐狸。</p>
<p>挪威男孩挖掘出 1300 年前的维京前剑。</p>
<p>超越头条</p>
<p>MarketWatch 推荐：这是最被低估的退休储蓄举措，RBC 财富管理退休解决方案负责人表示。</p>
<p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<p>本内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和华尔街日报出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-19-26 0704ET</p>

标普 500 指数

怪物饮料

日常消费品 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

食品饮料 ETF - PowerShares

日常消费品 ETF - Vanguard

标普 500 ETF - iShares

美国消费品 ETF - iShares

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

纳斯达克食品饮料 ETF - First Trust

<p>Evercore 警告投资者，随着油价和债券收益率的上升，可能面临潜在风险，建议转向像怪物饮料这样的 “低杠杆领导者” 以寻求保护。随着对通胀和市场稳定性的担忧加剧，标普 500 指数面临压力。由于投资者保护减少，Evercore 提醒对防御性股票保持谨慎，并强调低负债公司在应对即将到来的市场挑战中的重要性</p>

<p>By Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
</div><p>Evercore says 'low leverage leaders' are key</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore 表示 “低杠杆领导者” 是关键</p>
</div><p>Monster Beverage is one &#34;low-leverage&#34; leader that could offer a shelter for investors in a possibly looming bond and oil storm, says Evercore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Monster Beverage 是一个 “低杠杆” 领导者，Evercore 表示，它可能为投资者提供在可能即将到来的债券和石油风暴中的避风港。</p>
</div><p>Worries around higher bond yields and inflation have taken a recent toll on the S&amp;P 500, which could be headed for a third-straight losing session on Tuesday. While not a worrying streak yet, concerns are rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对更高债券收益率和通货膨胀的担忧最近对标普 500 造成了影响，该指数可能在周二迎来连续第三个下跌交易日。虽然这还不是令人担忧的趋势，但担忧正在上升。</p>
</div><p>Barclays, for example, has warned that the massive flood of money rushing into stocks is at risk of rushing out just as fast. Meanwhile, our call of the day from Evercore flags clear threats from rising oil prices and bond yields, warning investors are entering this potentially bumpy period with less protection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，巴克莱警告称，涌入股票的巨额资金可能会同样迅速地流出。与此同时，Evercore 的今日观点指出，油价和债券收益率上升带来了明显威胁，警告投资者在进入这个可能颠簸的时期时保护措施不足。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The broad stock market's rally from the 3/30 low has been impressive, decisively setting fresh records on momentum rarely seen since the Bullsupercycle began in 1982,&#34; said an Evercore ISI team led by senior managing director Julian Emanuel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore ISI 团队的高级董事朱利安·埃曼纽尔表示：“自 3 月 30 日低点以来，广泛的股市反弹令人印象深刻，决定性地创造了自 1982 年牛市超级周期开始以来罕见的动量新纪录。”</p>
</div><p>And they see &#34;longer-term upside,&#34; given that even as the market slid in March, defensive stocks were underperformers meaning investors were taking that pullback in stride. April's strong bounce also compares to similar rallies in history that were followed by more gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们认为 “长期上涨潜力” 依然存在，因为即使在 3 月市场下滑时，防御性股票表现不佳，意味着投资者在应对这种回调时表现得相对从容。4 月的强劲反弹也与历史上类似的反弹相比较，通常会随之而来更多的涨幅。</p>
</div><p>However, &#34;rising oil and yields pose near-term speed bumps,&#34; said Evercore, whose founder Roger Altman warned a day earlier that the oil market was reaching a &#34;tipping point&#34; that could send prices to $150 a barrel, and shock the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Evercore 表示：“油价和收益率的上升带来了短期障碍。” 创始人罗杰·阿尔特曼在前一天警告称，石油市场正达到一个 “临界点”，可能将价格推高至每桶 150 美元，并对经济造成冲击。</p>
</div><p>Emanuel and his colleagues said risks for stocks are building as long as WTI crude remains above $100 a barrel and the 10-year yield above 4.5%. They see particular risks for consumers and the economy if oil prices do not ease by the July 4th holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃曼纽尔及其同事表示，只要 WTI 原油价格保持在每桶 100 美元以上，10 年期收益率超过 4.5%，股票的风险就会不断增加。如果油价在 7 月 4 日假期之前没有缓解，他们认为消费者和经济面临特别风险。</p>
</div><p>What's particularly dangerous now is the lack of protection for investors. In March, investors had bought protection through stock-index put options - the right to sell at a given price and given date. So that protection against a slump kept them from dumping stocks in a panic and subsequent rewinding of that protection provided fuel for the rally in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前特别危险的是投资者缺乏保护。在 3 月，投资者通过股票指数看跌期权购买了保护——在特定价格和特定日期出售的权利。因此，这种对下跌的保护使他们避免了在恐慌中抛售股票，而随后的保护撤回为 4 月的反弹提供了动力。</p>
</div><p>With investor protection a bit lower, Evercore said they're now recommeding &#34;tapping the brakes&#34; on low defensive stocks - such as strongly performing tech names. Instead, they are keeping a longstanding tilt to low-leverage stocks, which don't carry high debt that will create a worry down the road when rates rise. The latter has seen mostly consistent &#34;all-weather outperformance&#34; throughout market ups and downs of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于投资者保护措施有所降低，Evercore 表示，他们现在建议 “减缓对低防御性股票的投资”——例如表现强劲的科技股。相反，他们保持对低杠杆股票的长期倾斜，这些股票没有高债务，在利率上升时不会造成担忧。后者在今年市场的起伏中表现出相对一致的 “全气候超越”。</p>
</div><p>Low-leverage stocks also offer &#34;exposure to a potential rerun of dotcom era leadership,&#34; as that factor was a leading performer into the dotcom peak as smarter investors started to buy companies that had less-risky balance sheets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低杠杆股票还提供了 “对潜在重演互联网泡沫时代领导地位的曝光”，因为这一因素在互联网泡沫高峰期表现突出，聪明的投资者开始购买财务状况较好的公司。</p>
</div><p>Evercore said it has refreshed its screens to look for potential outperformers among low-leverage stocks in the top quintile of the Russell 3000 RUA, based also on sales and earnings per share revisions and companies with $500 million-plus market capitalization. They also scanned for similar-sized companies with heavier debt and worse revisions in the Russell 3000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore 表示，他们已更新筛选条件，以寻找在罗素 3000 RUA 中低杠杆股票的潜在超越者，基于销售和每股收益修正，以及市值超过 5 亿美元的公司。他们还扫描了罗素 3000 中类似规模的高债务和较差修正的公司。</p>
</div><p>Here are some of the &#34;low leverage leaders&#34; they prefer:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是他们偏好的 “低杠杆领导者”：</p>
</div><p>Source: Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
</div><p>And here are some &#34;low-leverage laggards&#34; they've flagged:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是他们标记的一些 “低杠杆滞后者”：</p>
</div><p>Source: Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Factset, Bloomberg, Evercore ISI Research</p>
</div><p>The markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场动态</p>
</div><p>U.S. stock futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are dropping, as the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y creeps up to 4.609%. Brent crude (BRN00) is down nearly 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股指期货（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）正在下跌，10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 上升至 4.609%。布伦特原油（BRN00）下跌近 2%。</p>
</div><p>The buzz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场热议</p>
</div><p>Home Depot (HD) kept its full-year outlook intact and shares are rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝（HD）保持全年展望不变，股价上涨。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet (GOOGL) and Blackstone (BX) are teaming up to create an AI cloud company, with $5 billion in capital from the latter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌母公司 Alphabet（GOOGL）与黑石（BX）联手创建一家人工智能云公司，后者投资 50 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that he cancelled a planned Tuesday strike on Iran at the request of Gulf allies, to allow &#34;serious negotiations&#34; on a deal time to work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统在 Truth Social 上表示，应海湾盟友的请求，他取消了原定于周二对伊朗的打击，以便为 “严肃谈判” 留出时间。</p>
</div><p>Pending-home sales for April are due at 10 a.m. Ahead of that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is speaking at 8 a.m.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月份待售房屋数据将在上午 10 点公布。在此之前，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒将在上午 8 点发言。</p>
</div><p>Best of the web</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>网络精选</p>
</div><p>Trump's IRS settlement features a $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund for allies. Here's who may get the money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的国税局和解包括一个 18 亿美元的 “反武器化” 基金，供盟友使用。以下是可能获得资金的人。</p>
</div><p>The mysterious crypto judges who settle polymarket disputes</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>神秘的加密法官解决了多市场争议</p>
</div><p>Ebola raged for weeks in Congo before anyone raised the alarm</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃博拉在刚果肆虐数周，才有人发出警报</p>
</div><p>The chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表</p>
</div><p>Bank of America's May global fund manager survey showed a record jump in equity allocation and a sharp drop in cash levels, driven by earnings optimism and expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Note, pressure has been building as of late on the Fed to shift to a hiking stance, given rising inflation worries around oil prices. BofA warned that given almost all the bears are now back into the stock market, early June could be &#34;ripe for profit taking.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行 5 月份的全球基金经理调查显示，股票配置创下纪录增长，现金水平大幅下降，主要受益于盈利乐观和对美联储降息的预期。请注意，近期美联储面临的压力正在增加，因对油价上涨的通胀担忧。美国银行警告称，鉴于几乎所有空头现在都已重返股市，6 月初可能 “适合获利了结”。</p>
</div><p>Top tickers</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>热门股票</p>
</div><p>These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至上午 6 点，MarketWatch 上搜索最多的股票代码如下：</p>
</div><p>Random reads</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随机阅读</p>
</div><p>Red card, consolation pizza for USA soccer fans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>红牌，美国足球迷的安慰披萨。</p>
</div><p>The Mounties get their hot-dog-stealing fox.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>皇家骑警抓住了偷热狗的狐狸。</p>
</div><p>Norweigian schoolboy unearths 1,300 year-old pre-Viking sword.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威男孩挖掘出 1300 年前的维京前剑。</p>
</div><p>Beyond the headlines</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>超越头条</p>
</div><p>MarketWatch Picks: This is the most underrated retirement savings move, says RBC Wealth Management's head of retirement solutions</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketWatch 推荐：这是最被低估的退休储蓄举措，RBC 财富管理退休解决方案负责人表示。</p>
</div><p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和华尔街日报出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 0704ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 0704ET</p>
</div>

Investors are unprotected against oil and yield shocks. Here are the stocks to buy and avoid.

- Evercore 指出 “低杠杆领袖” 是投资者的避风港。  
- 随着债券收益率上升，市场风险加大，建议投资者降低防御性股票配置。  
- 低杠杆股票的表现相对稳定，可能吸引寻求规避风险的投资者。

Dow Jones

Evercore

辉盛研究系统

家得宝

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

黑石集团

美国银行

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

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