<p>多年来，东南亚国家联盟的政府面临来自国际贷款机构和气候论坛的压力，要求宣布逐步淘汰化石燃料、暂停新电厂建设，并大力投资风能和太阳能。</p>
<p>印度尼西亚和越南获得了来自公正能源转型伙伴关系的以脱碳为目标的资金支持。领导人们谈到到 2050 年实现净零目标，并在 2040 年或更早退出煤炭。天然气被视为过渡燃料，被认为是通往未来可再生能源乌托邦的必要之恶，在那里风能和太阳能将被 “扩大应用”。</p>
<p>然而，自信的言辞与现实相遇。</p>
<p>由于中东冲突的扩大，突发的石油和天然气危机暴露了净零计划的致命缺陷。天然气市场几乎在一夜之间紧缩。霍尔木兹海峡的航运路线变得危险。液化天然气价格飙升。供应链陷入困境。</p>
<p>现在，东盟各国政府悄然撕毁气候承诺，重新依赖石油、煤炭和天然气——这些是唯一能够保证其不断增长的经济不间断供电的可负担能源来源。</p>
<p>简而言之，化石燃料再次受到青睐。</p>
<p>自四月中旬以来，报告显示亚洲出现了明显的模式：液化天然气中断、现货价格上涨，以及对煤炭这种仍能以更便宜和更迅速提供可调度电力的争夺。东盟不靠口号运作，工厂、港口、商场和家庭也不靠幻想运作。当天然气价格飙升、供应紧张时，公用事业公司会选择煤炭，因为它是可用且熟悉的。</p>
<p>本月，印度尼西亚能源部长巴希尔·拉哈达利亚明确表示：“我决定，煤炭暂时继续。这关乎生存模式和效率。我们不能让人民承受高电价。”</p>
<p>印度尼西亚已批准提高煤炭生产配额，并推迟了如 Cirebon-1 等煤电厂的早期淘汰计划。消除煤炭使用的计划被搁置。为 2.8 亿人提供可负担的电力是首要任务。</p>
<p>在越南，3 月份煤电发电量环比增长 44%，达到 16 太瓦时。这占该国总发电量的 56%——是近期的最高比例。公用事业公司谈判额外的煤炭进口，以填补因液化天然气昂贵和稀缺而留下的空缺。</p>
<p>泰国采取了直接行动。有关部门重新启动了梅莫煤电厂的两个退役机组，并命令现有煤电站满负荷运转。增加的 600 兆瓦帮助在天然气价格飙升后稳定了电力成本。</p>
<p>菲律宾在 3 月底宣布国家能源紧急状态，因为汽油价格翻了一番。煤炭已经提供约 60% 的电力。政府加大了煤电厂的产出，并考虑放宽新产能的限制。能源部长拉斐尔·洛蒂拉表示，暂时依赖煤炭将防止短缺。</p>
<p>在缅甸，汽油站排起了长队。黑市价格超过官方价格两倍，导致稻米收割放缓和食品价格上涨。尽管当前危机主要影响柴油和汽油，但电力公司更加依赖国内煤炭储备，以避免更大范围的停电。马来西亚等国也在考虑采取类似措施，以保护工业产出和农村经济。</p>
<p>东盟国家迅速放弃净零承诺的速度应该告诉你关于气候议程可行性的一切。当真正的威胁出现时，绿色能源转型暴露出是一种奢侈的信念，只有那些从未担心过下一千瓦电力从何而来的人的信仰。</p>
<p>发展中经济体正在拒绝要求其持续贫困的气候教条。它们正在积极扩大煤矿开采，以确保稳定的国内燃料供应。这保护了它们的经济免受进口液化天然气价格剧烈波动的影响。</p>
<p>讽刺的是，曾花费多年承诺快速脱碳的政府现在依赖煤炭来维持电力供应和电价的可承受性。中产阶级对此表示赞赏，因为替代方案是更高的账单、燃料配给和失业。</p>
<p>对于普通家庭而言，能源安全不是辩论俱乐部的主题。这是可负担电力与不必要甚至危险的现代生活中断之间的区别。</p>
<p><em>Vijay Jayaraj 是</em> <em>CO2 Coalition</em> <em>的科学与研究助理，曾是不列颠哥伦比亚大学变化海洋研究单位的研究助理。</em></p>

印尼 MSCI ETF - iShares

VNAM

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

印尼 ETF - Market Vectors

<p>东南亚国家正在逆转其净零排放的承诺，因中东冲突加剧导致的能源危机而重新依赖化石燃料。印尼和越南等国正在增加煤炭的生产和使用，以确保其不断增长的经济能够获得负担得起且可靠的电力。这一转变突显了在天然气价格上涨和供应链中断的背景下，向可再生能源过渡所面临的挑战，因为各国政府将能源安全置于气候承诺之上</p>

<p>For years, the governments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations faced pressure from international lenders and climate forums to announce fossil fuel phase-outs, moratoria on new plants, and heavy bets on wind and solar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，东南亚国家联盟的政府面临来自国际贷款机构和气候论坛的压力，要求宣布逐步淘汰化石燃料、暂停新电厂建设，并大力投资风能和太阳能。</p>
</div><p>Indonesia and Vietnam secured decarbonization-inspired funding from the Just Energy Transition Partnership. Leaders spoke of achieving net-zero goals by 2050 and exiting coal by 2040 or earlier. Natural gas was regarded as the transition fuel, a supposedly necessary evil to get to a future renewable energy utopia, in which wind and solar would be “scaled up.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚和越南获得了来自公正能源转型伙伴关系的以脱碳为目标的资金支持。领导人们谈到到 2050 年实现净零目标，并在 2040 年或更早退出煤炭。天然气被视为过渡燃料，被认为是通往未来可再生能源乌托邦的必要之恶，在那里风能和太阳能将被 “扩大应用”。</p>
</div><p>Then the confident rhetoric met reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自信的言辞与现实相遇。</p>
</div><p>A sudden oil and natural gas crunch, triggered by the expanding conflict in the Middle East, has laid bare fatal flaws in the net zero program. Gas markets tightened almost overnight. Shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz got risky. Liquefied natural gas prices surged. Supply chains stumbled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于中东冲突的扩大，突发的石油和天然气危机暴露了净零计划的致命缺陷。天然气市场几乎在一夜之间紧缩。霍尔木兹海峡的航运路线变得危险。液化天然气价格飙升。供应链陷入困境。</p>
</div><p>Now, ASEAN governments are quietly tearing up their climate pledges and returning to oil, coal, and natural gas — the only affordable energy sources that guarantee uninterrupted power for their growing economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，东盟各国政府悄然撕毁气候承诺，重新依赖石油、煤炭和天然气——这些是唯一能够保证其不断增长的经济不间断供电的可负担能源来源。</p>
</div><p>In short, fossil fuels are back in style.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，化石燃料再次受到青睐。</p>
</div><p>Since mid-April, reports have described a clear pattern across Asia: liquefied natural gas disruption, higher spot prices, and a scramble for dispatchable power that coal can still provide more cheaply and immediately than many alternatives. ASEAN does not run on slogans, and factories, ports, malls, and homes do not operate on wishful thinking. When gas prices jump and supplies tighten, utilities reach for coal because it is available and familiar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自四月中旬以来，报告显示亚洲出现了明显的模式：液化天然气中断、现货价格上涨，以及对煤炭这种仍能以更便宜和更迅速提供可调度电力的争夺。东盟不靠口号运作，工厂、港口、商场和家庭也不靠幻想运作。当天然气价格飙升、供应紧张时，公用事业公司会选择煤炭，因为它是可用且熟悉的。</p>
</div><p>This month, Indonesia Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia made it plain: “I decided, let coal continue for now. This is about survival mode and efficiency. We must not sacrifice our people with high electricity prices.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月，印度尼西亚能源部长巴希尔·拉哈达利亚明确表示：“我决定，煤炭暂时继续。这关乎生存模式和效率。我们不能让人民承受高电价。”</p>
</div><p>Indonesia has approved higher quotas for coal production and delayed earlier phase-out schedules for coal plants like Cirebon-1. Plans to eliminate coal use sit on the shelf. Affordable power for 280 million people comes first.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度尼西亚已批准提高煤炭生产配额，并推迟了如 Cirebon-1 等煤电厂的早期淘汰计划。消除煤炭使用的计划被搁置。为 2.8 亿人提供可负担的电力是首要任务。</p>
</div><p>In Vietnam, coal-fired generation jumped 44 percent month-over-month in March, reaching 16 terawatt-hours. That accounted for 56 percent of the country’s total power output — the highest share in recent memory. Utilities negotiated extra coal imports to fill gaps left by expensive and scarce liquefied natural gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在越南，3 月份煤电发电量环比增长 44%，达到 16 太瓦时。这占该国总发电量的 56%——是近期的最高比例。公用事业公司谈判额外的煤炭进口，以填补因液化天然气昂贵和稀缺而留下的空缺。</p>
</div><p>Thailand took direct action. Authorities restarted two decommissioned units at the Mae Moh coal-fired power plant and ordered existing coal stations to maximum capacity. The added 600 megawatts helped stabilize electricity costs after gas prices soared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泰国采取了直接行动。有关部门重新启动了梅莫煤电厂的两个退役机组，并命令现有煤电站满负荷运转。增加的 600 兆瓦帮助在天然气价格飙升后稳定了电力成本。</p>
</div><p>The Philippines declared a national energy emergency in late March after gasoline prices more than doubled. Coal already supplies about 60 percent of electricity. The government ramped up output from coal plants and considered easing restrictions on new capacity. Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla signaled that temporary reliance on coal would prevent shortages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲律宾在 3 月底宣布国家能源紧急状态，因为汽油价格翻了一番。煤炭已经提供约 60% 的电力。政府加大了煤电厂的产出，并考虑放宽新产能的限制。能源部长拉斐尔·洛蒂拉表示，暂时依赖煤炭将防止短缺。</p>
</div><p>In Myanmar, there have been long queues at petrol stations. Black-market prices more than twice official rates have slowed rice harvesting and hiked food prices. Although the immediate crisis hits diesel and gasoline, power utilities lean harder on domestic coal reserves to avoid broader blackouts. Malaysia and others eye similar steps to protect industrial output and rural economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在缅甸，汽油站排起了长队。黑市价格超过官方价格两倍，导致稻米收割放缓和食品价格上涨。尽管当前危机主要影响柴油和汽油，但电力公司更加依赖国内煤炭储备，以避免更大范围的停电。马来西亚等国也在考虑采取类似措施，以保护工业产出和农村经济。</p>
</div><p>The speed with which ASEAN nations abandoned their net-zero pledges should tell you everything you need to know about the viability of the climate agenda. The moment a real threat emerged, the green energy transition was exposed as a luxury belief held by those who have never had to worry about where their next kilowatt is coming from.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东盟国家迅速放弃净零承诺的速度应该告诉你关于气候议程可行性的一切。当真正的威胁出现时，绿色能源转型暴露出是一种奢侈的信念，只有那些从未担心过下一千瓦电力从何而来的人的信仰。</p>
</div><p>Developing economies are rejecting the climate dogma that demands their perpetual impoverishment. They are actively expanding coal mining operations to ensure a steady supply of domestic fuel. This protects their economies from the wild price-swings of imported liquefied natural gas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>发展中经济体正在拒绝要求其持续贫困的气候教条。它们正在积极扩大煤矿开采，以确保稳定的国内燃料供应。这保护了它们的经济免受进口液化天然气价格剧烈波动的影响。</p>
</div><p>The irony is obvious. Governments that spent years promising rapid decarbonization are now leaning on coal to keep lights on and electricity prices tolerable. The middle class applauds because the alternative is higher bills, fuel rationing, and lost jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讽刺的是，曾花费多年承诺快速脱碳的政府现在依赖煤炭来维持电力供应和电价的可承受性。中产阶级对此表示赞赏，因为替代方案是更高的账单、燃料配给和失业。</p>
</div><p>For ordinary households, energy security is not a subject for a debate club. It is the difference between affordable electricity and unnecessary, even dangerous, interruptions to modern living.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于普通家庭而言，能源安全不是辩论俱乐部的主题。这是可负担电力与不必要甚至危险的现代生活中断之间的区别。</p>
</div><p><em>Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the</em> <em>CO2 Coalition</em> <em>and a former research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Vijay Jayaraj 是</em> <em>CO2 Coalition</em> <em>的科学与研究助理，曾是不列颠哥伦比亚大学变化海洋研究单位的研究助理。</em></p>
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东盟国家重新使用化石燃料，逐渐放弃净零排放计划