<p>看起来市场似乎不再完全相信特朗普总统在声称与伊朗正在进行 “严肃谈判” 并因此暂停计划中的打击后所说的话。然而，投资者仍然持怀疑态度。由于美伊僵局持续，油价从近期高点回落的幅度非常有限，交易者们保持紧张。我们不太可能在谈判取得实质性突破、允许霍尔木兹海峡重新开放之前看到任何有意义的趋势变化。目前，油价相对稳定，帮助美元在特朗普昨日的言论后恢复。受能源影响的货币再次承压，EUR/USD 跌入 1.16 低位，而 USD/JPY 再次突破 159.00，再次测试日本银行对日元贬值的容忍度。黄金也随之下滑，同时美国股指期货走软。目前，EUR/USD 的预测依然略显看跌。</p>
<h2>市场等待美伊进展</h2>
<p>市场反应表明，投资者在等待实质性进展，而非空洞的言辞。特朗普之前曾表现出乐观的语气，坚称与伊朗的协议即将达成，但谈判却停滞不前，市场也因此受到影响。目前，市场的感觉是白宫试图争取时间，希望德黑兰提出特朗普最终可以视为政治胜利的条件。</p>
<p>在缺乏实质性进展的情况下，美元看起来有望重新获得上周末时的强势，而这一趋势在撰写时已经开始。因此，EUR/USD 可能会迅速回落至 1.160 以下，而 USD/JPY 可能再次挑战备受关注的 160.00 关口。</p>
<p>目前，这仍然是一个对美元有利的环境。全球和美国国债收益率的上升再次支撑了美元，但与之前因财政焦虑驱动的情况不同，目前的走势反映了对通胀压力的重新关注。市场似乎越来越相信，持续的价格动态将使美国利率保持在较高水平，从而增强对美元的需求。</p>
<h2>投资者本周关注什么？</h2>
<p>由于美国经济日历在接下来的几个交易日相对清淡，地缘政治头条可能仍将是市场的主要驱动因素。特朗普昨日表示，针对伊朗的计划打击已在海湾国家的呼吁和持续的外交讨论后被推迟。然而，报告继续表明华盛顿与德黑兰在核条件和停火条款上仍存在重大分歧。</p>
<p>这在很大程度上还取决于明天英伟达的业绩是否能帮助稳定更广泛的市场情绪。强劲的业绩可能会使美国主要股指回升至历史高点，而疲弱的业绩则可能对风险资产不利，对美元有利。</p>
<p>与此同时，关注日元，因为它可能间接影响美元。尽管美元交易时段有所放软，但该货币仍面临压力，这加剧了市场对日本当局在进一步贬值方面的容忍度的担忧。</p>
<p>巴黎的 G7 峰会也将受到关注，尽管对任何市场驱动突破的预期仍然有限。</p>
<h2>技术 EUR/USD 预测：下行的最小阻力路径</h2>
<p>EUR/USD 仍处于区间震荡中，尽管近期的偏向略显看跌，过去七个交易日中有六个交易日出现下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20eurusd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1783" height="762" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>更重要的是，EUR/USD 现在已跌破 1.1670 至 1.1700 的关键支撑区间——该区域之前曾作为支撑，并受到 200 日移动平均线的强化。只要该货币对保持在该区域以下，最小阻力路径可能仍然是向下。</p>
<p>下一个支撑区域在 1.1600 至 1.1605 附近，标志着 4 月初反弹的底部。在此之下，直到 1.1500 之前几乎没有显著的支撑。如果该水平被突破，市场可能会开始瞄准新的年度低点，3 月的低点约为 1.1411 将重新受到关注。</p>
<p>在上行方面，若回升至 1.1700 以上，将改善短期技术图景，并可能使 EUR/USD 重新测试 1.1800。</p>
<p>然而，要使该货币对维持向上的突破，市场可能需要看到美伊局势的实质性进展。只要油价保持在高位，投资者可能会难以对欧元区的前景产生信心，从而限制对欧洲资产的需求，并使我们的 EUR/USD 预测风险偏向下行。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

1.5 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Tradr

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

<p>EUR/USD 的预测保持适度看跌，因为市场在等待美伊谈判的实质性进展。油价已经稳定，支持了美元的复苏。该货币对已跌破关键支撑位，如果趋势持续，可能会向 1.1500 进一步下滑。投资者保持谨慎，关注地缘政治动态和即将发布的经济数据，特别是英伟达的业绩，这可能会影响市场情绪</p>

<p>It looks like markets no longer appear to be taking Donald Trump entirely at his word after the US president claimed that “serious negotiations” with Iran are under way and that planned strikes have therefore been paused. Investors, however, remain unconvinced. Oil prices gave given back very little from their recent highs, as the ongoing US-Iran stalemate keeps traders on edge. It is unlikely we will see any meaningful moves against the prevailing trends until we get a real breakthrough in negotiations that allows for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. For now, oil prices have held relatively steady, helping the dollar recover after yesterday’s jawboning from Trump. Energy-sensitive currencies have come back under pressure, with EUR/USD slipping into the low 1.16s, while USD/JPY has pushed back above 159.00, once again testing the Bank of Japan’s tolerance for yen weakness. Gold has also slipped, alongside softer US equity futures. For now, the EUR/USD forecast remains modestly bearish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看起来市场似乎不再完全相信特朗普总统在声称与伊朗正在进行 “严肃谈判” 并因此暂停计划中的打击后所说的话。然而，投资者仍然持怀疑态度。由于美伊僵局持续，油价从近期高点回落的幅度非常有限，交易者们保持紧张。我们不太可能在谈判取得实质性突破、允许霍尔木兹海峡重新开放之前看到任何有意义的趋势变化。目前，油价相对稳定，帮助美元在特朗普昨日的言论后恢复。受能源影响的货币再次承压，EUR/USD 跌入 1.16 低位，而 USD/JPY 再次突破 159.00，再次测试日本银行对日元贬值的容忍度。黄金也随之下滑，同时美国股指期货走软。目前，EUR/USD 的预测依然略显看跌。</p>
</div><h2>Markets await progress on US-Iran</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场等待美伊进展</h2>
</div><p>The market reaction suggests investors are waiting for tangible progress rather than rhetoric. Trump has struck an optimistic tone before, insisting a deal with Iran was close, only for negotiations to stall and markets to be caught out. For now, the sense in the market is that the White House is attempting to buy time in the hope that Tehran presents terms that Trump can ultimately frame as a political win.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场反应表明，投资者在等待实质性进展，而非空洞的言辞。特朗普之前曾表现出乐观的语气，坚称与伊朗的协议即将达成，但谈判却停滞不前，市场也因此受到影响。目前，市场的感觉是白宫试图争取时间，希望德黑兰提出特朗普最终可以视为政治胜利的条件。</p>
</div><p>In the absence of tangible progress, the dollar looks well placed to regain the strong footing seen late last week, and that motion was already underway at the time of writing. So, it is quite possible the EUR/USD could quickly drift back below 1.160, while USD/JPY may once again challenge the closely watched 160.00 threshold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在缺乏实质性进展的情况下，美元看起来有望重新获得上周末时的强势，而这一趋势在撰写时已经开始。因此，EUR/USD 可能会迅速回落至 1.160 以下，而 USD/JPY 可能再次挑战备受关注的 160.00 关口。</p>
</div><p>For now, this remains a dollar-positive environment. Rising global and US Treasury yields are once again underpinning the dollar, but unlike previous episodes driven by fiscal anxiety, the current move reflects renewed concern around inflation pressures. Markets appear increasingly convinced that sticky price dynamics will keep US rates elevated for longer, reinforcing demand for the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，这仍然是一个对美元有利的环境。全球和美国国债收益率的上升再次支撑了美元，但与之前因财政焦虑驱动的情况不同，目前的走势反映了对通胀压力的重新关注。市场似乎越来越相信，持续的价格动态将使美国利率保持在较高水平，从而增强对美元的需求。</p>
</div><h2>What will investors watch out for this week?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者本周关注什么？</h2>
</div><p>With the US economic calendar relatively light over the coming sessions, geopolitical headlines are likely to remain the dominant market driver. Trump indicated yesterday that a planned strike on Iran had been postponed following appeals from Gulf states and ongoing diplomatic discussions. However, reports continue to suggest significant divisions remain between Washington and Tehran over nuclear conditions and ceasefire terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国经济日历在接下来的几个交易日相对清淡，地缘政治头条可能仍将是市场的主要驱动因素。特朗普昨日表示，针对伊朗的计划打击已在海湾国家的呼吁和持续的外交讨论后被推迟。然而，报告继续表明华盛顿与德黑兰在核条件和停火条款上仍存在重大分歧。</p>
</div><p>Much will also depend on whether Nvidia’s results tomorrow can help stabilise broader market sentiment. A strong print could see the US major US indices climb back towards ATHs, while a weak set of results could be bad for risk assets, and good for the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这在很大程度上还取决于明天英伟达的业绩是否能帮助稳定更广泛的市场情绪。强劲的业绩可能会使美国主要股指回升至历史高点，而疲弱的业绩则可能对风险资产不利，对美元有利。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, keep an eye on the yen as it could impact the dollar indirectly. The currency has struggled despite periods of softer dollar trading, reinforcing concerns that markets are becoming increasingly comfortable testing Japanese authorities’ tolerance for further weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，关注日元，因为它可能间接影响美元。尽管美元交易时段有所放软，但该货币仍面临压力，这加剧了市场对日本当局在进一步贬值方面的容忍度的担忧。</p>
</div><p>There will be some attention on the G7 summit in Paris, although expectations for any market-moving breakthroughs remain limited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴黎的 G7 峰会也将受到关注，尽管对任何市场驱动突破的预期仍然有限。</p>
</div><h2>Technical EUR/USD forecast: Path of least resistance lower</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技术 EUR/USD 预测：下行的最小阻力路径</h2>
</div><p>The EUR/USD remains range-bound, although the recent bias has turned modestly bearish, with the pair declining in six of the past seven trading sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EUR/USD 仍处于区间震荡中，尽管近期的偏向略显看跌，过去七个交易日中有六个交易日出现下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20eurusd.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20eurusd.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>More importantly, EUR/USD has now broken below a key support zone around 1.1670 to 1.1700 — an area that had previously acted as support and was reinforced by the 200-day moving average. As long as the pair remains below that region, the path of least resistance is likely to remain to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，EUR/USD 现在已跌破 1.1670 至 1.1700 的关键支撑区间——该区域之前曾作为支撑，并受到 200 日移动平均线的强化。只要该货币对保持在该区域以下，最小阻力路径可能仍然是向下。</p>
</div><p>The next area of support comes in around 1.1600 to 1.1605, which marks the base of the rally seen in early April. Beneath that, there is relatively little in the way of notable support until 1.1500. Should that level give way, the market could begin targeting fresh yearly lows, with the March trough around 1.1411 coming back into focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一个支撑区域在 1.1600 至 1.1605 附近，标志着 4 月初反弹的底部。在此之下，直到 1.1500 之前几乎没有显著的支撑。如果该水平被突破，市场可能会开始瞄准新的年度低点，3 月的低点约为 1.1411 将重新受到关注。</p>
</div><p>On the upside, a move back above 1.1700 would improve the near-term technical picture and could allow EUR/USD to retest 1.1800.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上行方面，若回升至 1.1700 以上，将改善短期技术图景，并可能使 EUR/USD 重新测试 1.1800。</p>
</div><p>However, for the pair to sustain a break higher, markets would likely need to see meaningful progress on the US-Iran situation. As long as oil prices remain elevated, investors may struggle to gain confidence in a stronger Eurozone outlook, limiting appetite for European assets and keeping the risks to our EUR/USD forecast titled to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，要使该货币对维持向上的突破，市场可能需要看到美伊局势的实质性进展。只要油价保持在高位，投资者可能会难以对欧元区的前景产生信心，从而限制对欧洲资产的需求，并使我们的 EUR/USD 预测风险偏向下行。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

EUR/USD forecast: Dollar holds steady as markets await US-Iran progress

Forex

英伟达

NVIDIA Corporation

欧元兑美元的预测：美元保持稳定，市场正在等待美国与伊朗之间的进展