<ul>
<li>纳斯达克的看涨势头停滞，随着下行风险增加：是暂停还是修正的开始？</li>
<li>欧元区贸易顺差在 3 月份缩小，因中东冲突导致能源赤字扩大</li>
<li>油价在美国与伊朗的僵局中持续高企</li>
<li>巴克莱：本周有强势美元反弹的潜力</li>
<li>FMAS：26 在开普敦为金融专业人士举办独家加密货币活动</li>
<li>USD/JPY 在宏观背景仍偏向上行的情况下持续抹去干预损失</li>
<li>美银调查显示仅有 4% 的基金经理认为会出现硬着陆</li>
<li>今天的主要事件是什么？</li>
<li>伊朗重申最新提案包括解除海上封锁和制裁</li>
<li>英国劳动力市场放缓，中东冲突的阴云笼罩</li>
<li>5 月 19 日纽约时间上午 10 点的外汇期权到期</li>
<li>随着美伊冲突持续，谨慎情绪依然高涨</li>
<li>NVDA 在 5 月 20 日周三财报前的股票预测</li>
</ul>
<p>这一交易时段相对平淡，只有英国就业报告在日程上。数据表现混合，但总体上低于预期，失业率上升，4 月份的初步估计显示就业人数减少 10 万。英国国家统计局（ONS）也发出警告称：<em>&#34;2026 年 4 月的估计应视为临时估计，预计在下个月收到更多数据时会进行修正。由于税务年度的变化，4 月的初步估计更不确定。&#34;</em></p>
<p>在市场上，即使特朗普取消了对伊朗的大规模军事打击，仍然存在一些谨慎情绪。为了提供背景，他表示，暂停是应海湾领导人的请求，以便继续进行和平谈判。他补充说，现在取消打击后达成协议的 “好机会” 存在。</p>
<p>由于美国与伊朗的僵局、持续高企的油价、强劲的美国数据以及美联储加息的潜力，美元昨日收复了失地。这些因素在周五国债收益率突破 3 月份高点后，正在更广泛地影响市场。我们可能已经达到了一个痛点，唯一的解决方案是迅速重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
<p>在美国交易时段，我们将发布加拿大 CPI 报告。预计总体 CPI 将从之前的 2.4% 上升至 3.1%，而更重要的修剪均值 CPI 年率预计保持在 2.2% 不变。</p>
<p>我们最近获得了加拿大就业报告，数据显示劳动力市场再次疲软。行长麦克勒姆强调，虽然央行将 “忽视战争对通胀的直接影响”，但如果其蔓延至更广泛的经济，“可能需要连续提高政策利率”。央行可能会关注修剪均值 CPI 以寻找溢出迹象。</p>
<p>最后，我们有美联储的沃勒发言。我认为今天值得强调，因为我们即将迎来 6 月 FOMC 会议，会议将包含经济预测摘要（SEP）和点阵图。这些会议通常对政策信号更为重要。</p>
<p>沃勒在这一周期内一直是美联储政策的 “领先指标”，如果他现在改变立场，市场可能会产生重大反应。他一直担心劳动力市场，但数据显示出强劲的条件。现在更紧张的是通胀，如果他将注意力重新转向通胀，可能会被视为潜在加息的信号。</p>

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

<p>英国就业数据表现不一，失业率上升，工资单减少 10 万。由于美国与伊朗之间的紧张局势以及高企的油价，美元保持支撑。欧元区贸易顺差缩小，纳斯达克的上涨势头停滞。美联储的沃勒即将发表的讲话被期待为 6 月 FOMC 会议前的政策信号</p>

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</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>纳斯达克的看涨势头停滞，随着下行风险增加：是暂停还是修正的开始？</li>
<li>欧元区贸易顺差在 3 月份缩小，因中东冲突导致能源赤字扩大</li>
<li>油价在美国与伊朗的僵局中持续高企</li>
<li>巴克莱：本周有强势美元反弹的潜力</li>
<li>FMAS：26 在开普敦为金融专业人士举办独家加密货币活动</li>
<li>USD/JPY 在宏观背景仍偏向上行的情况下持续抹去干预损失</li>
<li>美银调查显示仅有 4% 的基金经理认为会出现硬着陆</li>
<li>今天的主要事件是什么？</li>
<li>伊朗重申最新提案包括解除海上封锁和制裁</li>
<li>英国劳动力市场放缓，中东冲突的阴云笼罩</li>
<li>5 月 19 日纽约时间上午 10 点的外汇期权到期</li>
<li>随着美伊冲突持续，谨慎情绪依然高涨</li>
<li>NVDA 在 5 月 20 日周三财报前的股票预测</li>
</ul>
</div><p>It's been a rather uneventful session with only the UK jobs report on the agenda. The data was mixed, but overall softer than expected as the unemployment rate ticked higher and the early estimate for April showing a 100K drop in payrolls. The ONS did put out a caveat though in saying that: <em>&#34;the April 2026 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month. The early April estimate is more uncertain because of the change of tax year.&#34;</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一交易时段相对平淡，只有英国就业报告在日程上。数据表现混合，但总体上低于预期，失业率上升，4 月份的初步估计显示就业人数减少 10 万。英国国家统计局（ONS）也发出警告称：<em>&#34;2026 年 4 月的估计应视为临时估计，预计在下个月收到更多数据时会进行修正。由于税务年度的变化，4 月的初步估计更不确定。&#34;</em></p>
</div><p>In the markets, there's still some caution in the air even if Trump called off a large-scale military strike against Iran. For context, he said that the suspension was at the request of Gulf leaders, to allow for peace talks to continue. He added that there is a &#34;good chance&#34; of a deal now that the strike has been called off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在市场上，即使特朗普取消了对伊朗的大规模军事打击，仍然存在一些谨慎情绪。为了提供背景，他表示，暂停是应海湾领导人的请求，以便继续进行和平谈判。他补充说，现在取消打击后达成协议的 “好机会” 存在。</p>
</div><p>The US dollar recouped yesterday's losses as the greenback remains supported amid the US-Iran stalemate, the persistently elevated oil prices, the resilient US data and the potential for Fed rate hikes. These forces are now weighing on the markets more broadly after Treasury yields broke above March highs on Friday. We might have reached a pain point where the only solution is to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国与伊朗的僵局、持续高企的油价、强劲的美国数据以及美联储加息的潜力，美元昨日收复了失地。这些因素在周五国债收益率突破 3 月份高点后，正在更广泛地影响市场。我们可能已经达到了一个痛点，唯一的解决方案是迅速重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。</p>
</div><p>In the American session, we get the Canadian CPI report. Headline CPI is expected to increase to 3.1% vs 2.4% prior, while the more important Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is seen remaining unchanged at 2.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国交易时段，我们将发布加拿大 CPI 报告。预计总体 CPI 将从之前的 2.4% 上升至 3.1%，而更重要的修剪均值 CPI 年率预计保持在 2.2% 不变。</p>
</div><p>We recently got the Canadian employment report and the data showed once again a soft labour market. Governor Macklem stressed that while the Bank would be “looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation”, if it spills into the broader economy, “there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate”. The central bank will likely be watching the Trimmed-Mean CPI for signs of spillovers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们最近获得了加拿大就业报告，数据显示劳动力市场再次疲软。行长麦克勒姆强调，虽然央行将 “忽视战争对通胀的直接影响”，但如果其蔓延至更广泛的经济，“可能需要连续提高政策利率”。央行可能会关注修剪均值 CPI 以寻找溢出迹象。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, we have Fed's Waller speaking. I think it's worth highlighting it today because we are approaching the June FOMC meeting and it will contain the SEP and the dot plot. These meetings are generally more important for policy signals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，我们有美联储的沃勒发言。我认为今天值得强调，因为我们即将迎来 6 月 FOMC 会议，会议将包含经济预测摘要（SEP）和点阵图。这些会议通常对政策信号更为重要。</p>
</div><p>Fed's Waller has been a great &#34;leading indicator&#34; for Fed policy in this cycle and I think the market would react in a big way if he were to change his stance now. He's been worrying about the labour market but the data has been pointing to resilient conditions. What is more in tension now is inflation and if he switches his focus back to that, it might be taken as a signal of potential rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃勒在这一周期内一直是美联储政策的 “领先指标”，如果他现在改变立场，市场可能会产生重大反应。他一直担心劳动力市场，但数据显示出强劲的条件。现在更紧张的是通胀，如果他将注意力重新转向通胀，可能会被视为潜在加息的信号。</p>
</div>

investingLive European FX news wrap: UK jobs data disappoints, US dollar remains supported

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投资直播欧洲外汇新闻汇总：英国就业数据表现不佳，美国美元依然受到支撑