<p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>现金水平下降，市场情绪高涨，意味着市场距离抛售仅一步之遥</p>
<p>美国银行警告称，股市可能面临夏季抛售，因为投资者纷纷涌入市场。</p>
<p>由于强劲的盈利增长推动过度乐观，投资者情绪已升至三个月来的高点。然而，这使得市场在 6 月初面临获利回吐的风险，任何下跌的严重程度将取决于债券收益率的上升幅度。</p>
<p>这是美国银行 5 月份基金经理调查的主要发现，该调查由首席股票策略师迈克尔·哈特内特领导的团队于周二发布。报告指出，哈特内特现在认为，由于投资者情绪变得如此乐观，市场距离技术性卖出信号仅一步之遥。</p>
<p>FMS 现金水平降至 3.9%，触发卖出信号</p>
<p>该调查的一个引人注目的数据是，在 170 位管理近 5000 亿美元资产的基金经理中，现金水平在过去四周内从 4.3% 降至 3.9%。这是自 2024 年 2 月以来最大的一次下降。一般来说，低于 4% 的读数会触发卖出信号，值得注意的是，在过去十五年中观察到的 24 个卖出信号后，市场的中位数下跌为-1%。</p>
<p>调查结果显示，投资者存在一定程度的自满。例如，只有 16% 的受访者预计未来十二个月内美联储会加息，尽管 2 年期国债收益率为 4.1%——通常被视为未来美联储基金利率（FF00）的最佳指引，目前为 3.50-3.75%——这表明加息的可能性。</p>
<p>对美联储可能在通胀威胁上 “滞后” 的担忧，或在应对通胀方面缺乏前瞻性，解释了为什么近三分之二的受访投资者认为美国长期国债收益率 6% 是一个可能的目标。</p>
<p>只有 16% 的投资者预计美联储将在未来 12 个月内加息</p>
<p>对利率的相对乐观预期似乎与调查中不到一半的受访者预计霍尔木兹海峡在 6 月底前将允许原油通行的事实相矛盾。不出所料，调查显示投资者对年末油价（BRN00）的共识约为 85 美元。</p>
<p>根据投资者的说法，最拥挤的交易是全球半导体 SOX 的多头，73% 的投资者认同这一点。他们承认，最大的尾部风险或罕见但灾难性市场发展的可能性是通胀。这可能解释了为什么大宗商品的超配头寸是 FMS 有史以来最高的，以及为什么债券的超配程度是自 2022 年 6 月以来的最大低配，当时美国的通胀飙升至 9%。</p>
<p>利用调查结果提出可能的逆向交易思路，哈特内特强调了固定收益、美元 DXY、不受欢迎的英国资产 UK:UKX 和因汽油价格上涨而受挫的消费股 XLY 的趋势反转潜力。</p>
<p>-朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-19-26 0828ET</p>

美国银行

<p>美国银行警告称，随着投资者情绪达到三个月来的高峰，股市可能面临夏季抛售。基金经理调查显示现金水平降至 3.9%，触发了卖出信号。尽管乐观情绪存在，但对债券收益率上升和通货膨胀的担忧依然存在，只有 16% 的投资者预计美联储在明年会加息。调查还强调了半导体领域的拥挤交易和债券的显著低配，暗示可能出现逆向交易的想法</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>Falling cash levels, soaring sentiment mean market's a 'chip shot' away from selling</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现金水平下降，市场情绪高涨，意味着市场距离抛售仅一步之遥</p>
</div><p>Bank of America is warning that stock markets could be facing a summer rout after investors have piled into the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行警告称，股市可能面临夏季抛售，因为投资者纷纷涌入市场。</p>
</div><p>Excessive optimism, driven by robust earnings growth has whipped up investor sentiment to a three-month peak. However, this leaves the market vulnerable to profit-taking in early June, with the severity of any decline to be determined by how high bond yields rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于强劲的盈利增长推动过度乐观，投资者情绪已升至三个月来的高点。然而，这使得市场在 6 月初面临获利回吐的风险，任何下跌的严重程度将取决于债券收益率的上升幅度。</p>
</div><p>That's according the main findings of Bank of America's Fund Manager Survey for May, which published Tuesday by a team led by chief equity strategist Michael Hartnett. The report notes that Hartnett now reckons that because investor sentiment has become so bullish, markets are within a &#34;chip shot&#34; of hitting a technical sell signal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是美国银行 5 月份基金经理调查的主要发现，该调查由首席股票策略师迈克尔·哈特内特领导的团队于周二发布。报告指出，哈特内特现在认为，由于投资者情绪变得如此乐观，市场距离技术性卖出信号仅一步之遥。</p>
</div><p>FMS cash level drops to 3.9%, triggering sell signal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FMS 现金水平降至 3.9%，触发卖出信号</p>
</div><p>The eye-catching figure from the survey, conducted among 170 fund managers running almost half a trillion in assets, was the cash level that fell from 4.3% to 3.9% in the last four weeks. That was the biggest such drop since February 2024. A reading below 4% generally triggers a sell signal and it's worth noting that the median market decline, following the 24 sell signals observed in the last fifteen years, is -1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该调查的一个引人注目的数据是，在 170 位管理近 5000 亿美元资产的基金经理中，现金水平在过去四周内从 4.3% 降至 3.9%。这是自 2024 年 2 月以来最大的一次下降。一般来说，低于 4% 的读数会触发卖出信号，值得注意的是，在过去十五年中观察到的 24 个卖出信号后，市场的中位数下跌为-1%。</p>
</div><p>Some of the poll's findings show a degree of complacency on behalf of investors. Only 16% of respondents, for example, expect Fed rate hikes in the next twelve months, despite 2-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y yields of 4.1% - yypically interpreted as the best guide to the future Fed Funds rate (FF00), now at 3.50-3.75% - suggesting they are probable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>调查结果显示，投资者存在一定程度的自满。例如，只有 16% 的受访者预计未来十二个月内美联储会加息，尽管 2 年期国债收益率为 4.1%——通常被视为未来美联储基金利率（FF00）的最佳指引，目前为 3.50-3.75%——这表明加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Concerns that the Fed may &#34;be behind the curve&#34; on the threat of inflation, or not forward-thinking enough in terms of tackling it, explains why almost two-thirds of investors surveyed believe a 6% yield on the U.S. long bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y is a likely target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对美联储可能在通胀威胁上 “滞后” 的担忧，或在应对通胀方面缺乏前瞻性，解释了为什么近三分之二的受访投资者认为美国长期国债收益率 6% 是一个可能的目标。</p>
</div><p>Just 16% of investors expect the Fed to hike rates in the next 12 months</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有 16% 的投资者预计美联储将在未来 12 个月内加息</p>
</div><p>The relatively sanguine expectations for interest rates also seems at odds with the fact that less than half of the survey's respondents expect the Strait of Hormuz to be free for the transit of crude by the end of June. Not surprisingly, the survey shows the consensus among investors for the oil price (BRN00) at year-end to be around $85.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对利率的相对乐观预期似乎与调查中不到一半的受访者预计霍尔木兹海峡在 6 月底前将允许原油通行的事实相矛盾。不出所料，调查显示投资者对年末油价（BRN00）的共识约为 85 美元。</p>
</div><p>The most crowded trade, according to investors, is the long global semiconductors SOX bandwagon, identified by 73% of them. The biggest tail risk, or probability of a rare but catastrophic market development, they acknowledged was inflation. This might explain why the overweight position in commodities is the highest the FMS has ever registered, and why bonds are the biggest underweight seen since June in 2022 at the height of the spike in inflation to 9% in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据投资者的说法，最拥挤的交易是全球半导体 SOX 的多头，73% 的投资者认同这一点。他们承认，最大的尾部风险或罕见但灾难性市场发展的可能性是通胀。这可能解释了为什么大宗商品的超配头寸是 FMS 有史以来最高的，以及为什么债券的超配程度是自 2022 年 6 月以来的最大低配，当时美国的通胀飙升至 9%。</p>
</div><p>Using the survey's findings to suggest possible contrarian trade ideas, Hartnett highlights the potential for a trend reversal in fixed-income, the dollar DXY, unloved U.K. assets UK:UKX and consumer stocks XLY that have foundered as gasoline prices have jumped at the pump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利用调查结果提出可能的逆向交易思路，哈特内特强调了固定收益、美元 DXY、不受欢迎的英国资产 UK:UKX 和因汽油价格上涨而受挫的消费股 XLY 的趋势反转潜力。</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 0828ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 0828ET</p>
</div>

Investors are all-in on stocks, and a June swoon could be next, BofA says

- 美银警告股市可能在夏季遭遇回调，因投资者情绪过于乐观。
- 调查显示现金水平降至 3.9%，触发卖出信号；过去 15 年的市场平均跌幅为 -1%。
- 大多数投资者认为美联储将面临通胀挑战，预期长期债券收益率可能达 6%。

Dow Jones

精选消费品板块指数 ETF - SPDR

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

美国银行表示，投资者全力投入股票市场，六月可能会出现股市下跌