<p>美元/日元在日本于四月底进行干预后重新开始稳步攀升，市场普遍怀疑在五月初会有进一步的干预。自那时以来，价格走势变得更加积极，特别是在该货币对重新夺回关键的 158.00 水平后——这是一个重要的技术阈值。尽管美元交易出现了一些疲软，日元仍然面临困境，这加剧了市场对日本当局在进一步贬值方面容忍度的担忧。目前，风险平衡仍然指向美元/日元前景的进一步上行，而不是持久的下行反转。干预可能会引发剧烈但短暂的回调，但最近的经验表明，这些波动不太可能持续很长时间。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>干预及其对美元/日元的影响减弱</h2>
<p>越来越明显的是，市场对干预本身的有效性给予的重视程度在下降。相对温和的波动性表明，交易者将官方行动视为一种临时的制动，而不是持久的反转机制。这使得日元在美国收益率保持高位和全球风险偏好不确定的环境中变得脆弱。</p>
<p>最近一轮日元贬值发生在日本财政部终于对关于投机性和单边货币走势的反复警告采取行动，通过日本银行在黄金周假期期间进行干预。当美元/日元突破 160.00 时，东京似乎认为已经够了，触发了自 2024 年 7 月以来首次的日元买入行动。</p>
<p>干预最初引发了日元在各个方面的急剧反弹，但潜在趋势随后重新显现。市场再次质疑东京是否会再次干预，以及进一步行动的有效性如何。</p>
<h2>为什么日元贬值是个坏事？</h2>
<p>日本的核心问题在于，日元贬值显著提高了进口能源、食品和原材料的成本。考虑到该国对能源进口的高度依赖，最近与伊朗相关的油价上涨只加剧了压力。虽然日元贬值通常会支持日本出口，但这种好处目前被进口通胀和更高的能源成本所掩盖。</p>
<p>如果油价保持高位且美国国债收益率继续上升，干预的有效性可能会进一步减弱。在这种情况下，美元/日元仍可能果断突破 160.00。</p>
<h2>美日联合努力将更有效，但不太可能</h2>
<p>市场已经观察到连续干预轮次的收益递减，日本当局也清楚外汇储备并非无限。</p>
<p>一个可能的途径是与美国协调行动，尽管华盛顿迄今为止对直接参与表现出较少的兴趣。也就是说，如果美元的广泛强势加速，美国财政部最终可能会与日本当局合作以稳定日元。这种举动的可信度可能会高于单边干预，但目前没有证据表明这种情况即将发生。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，尽管反复尝试干预，美元/日元的整体前景仍然看涨。持续的下行反转可能需要油价显著下降，而这又取决于美国与伊朗之间的实质性进展以及地缘政治紧张局势的整体缓解。</p>
<h2>技术美元/日元前景：干预风险再次上升，160 再次成为焦点</h2>
<p>美元/日元的前景仍然坚定地指向汇率回到 160.00 区域，投资者越来越将其视为东京政策制定者的分界线。如果当局在这些水平附近再次不采取行动，注意力可能会迅速转向 161.00 至 162.00 区域——这是日本银行在 2024 年 7 月最后一次干预的区域。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20usdjpy.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20usdjpy.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
<p>自突破关键的 157.90/158.00 区域（现在是一个重要的支撑位）以来，美元/日元也重新回到了其 21 日指数移动平均线之上，现在正在测试 159.10 区域，该区域在 4 月 30 日干预驱动的急剧抛售之前曾作为支撑位。突破这一点，160.00 可能是下一个目标。</p>
<p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>

西方石油

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

<p>美元/日元在日本于四月下旬进行干预后恢复了上涨趋势，重新回到了关键的 158.00 水平。尽管如此，由于美国收益率和油价上涨，日元仍然承压，这引发了对进一步干预有效性的担忧。前景显示美元/日元有可能超过 160.00，但干预的收益正在减少。与美国的协调努力可能增强干预的可信度，但目前市场对单边行动的有效性仍持怀疑态度</p>

<p>The USD/JPY has resumed its steady climb after Japan intervened at the end of April, with further operations widely suspected in early May. Since then, price action has turned more constructive, particularly after the pair reclaimed the key 158.00 level — an important technical threshold. The Japanese yen continues to struggle despite periods of softer dollar trading, reinforcing concerns that markets are becoming increasingly comfortable testing Japanese authorities’ tolerance for further weakness. For now, the balance of risks still points towards further upside in USD/JPY outlook rather than a lasting reversal lower. Intervention may trigger sharp but short-lived pullbacks, yet recent experience suggests those moves are unlikely to hold for long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元在日本于四月底进行干预后重新开始稳步攀升，市场普遍怀疑在五月初会有进一步的干预。自那时以来，价格走势变得更加积极，特别是在该货币对重新夺回关键的 158.00 水平后——这是一个重要的技术阈值。尽管美元交易出现了一些疲软，日元仍然面临困境，这加剧了市场对日本当局在进一步贬值方面容忍度的担忧。目前，风险平衡仍然指向美元/日元前景的进一步上行，而不是持久的下行反转。干预可能会引发剧烈但短暂的回调，但最近的经验表明，这些波动不太可能持续很长时间。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>Intervention and its diminishing impact on USD/JPY</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>干预及其对美元/日元的影响减弱</h2>
</div><p>What is becoming increasingly evident is that markets are placing less weight on the effectiveness of intervention itself. The relatively subdued volatility suggests traders see official action as more of a temporary brake than a lasting reversal mechanism. That leaves the yen vulnerable in an environment where US yields remain elevated and global risk appetite remains uncertain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越来越明显的是，市场对干预本身的有效性给予的重视程度在下降。相对温和的波动性表明，交易者将官方行动视为一种临时的制动，而不是持久的反转机制。这使得日元在美国收益率保持高位和全球风险偏好不确定的环境中变得脆弱。</p>
</div><p>The latest bout of yen weakness comes after Japan’s Ministry of Finance finally acted on repeated warnings about speculative and one-sided currency moves, intervening through the Bank of Japan during the Golden Week holiday period. Once USD/JPY pushed through 160.00, Tokyo appeared to conclude that enough was enough, triggering its first yen-buying operation since July 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近一轮日元贬值发生在日本财政部终于对关于投机性和单边货币走势的反复警告采取行动，通过日本银行在黄金周假期期间进行干预。当美元/日元突破 160.00 时，东京似乎认为已经够了，触发了自 2024 年 7 月以来首次的日元买入行动。</p>
</div><p>The intervention initially sparked a sharp rally in the yen across the board, but the underlying trend has since reasserted itself. Markets are once again questioning not only whether Tokyo will intervene again, but also how effective further action is likely to be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>干预最初引发了日元在各个方面的急剧反弹，但潜在趋势随后重新显现。市场再次质疑东京是否会再次干预，以及进一步行动的有效性如何。</p>
</div><h2>Why is weakening yen a bad thing?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么日元贬值是个坏事？</h2>
</div><p>The core problem for Japan is that a weak yen significantly raises the cost of imported energy, food and raw materials. Given the country’s heavy dependence on energy imports, the recent rise in oil prices linked to tensions involving Iran has only intensified the pressure. While a weaker yen would ordinarily support Japanese exports, that benefit is currently being overshadowed by imported inflation and higher energy costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的核心问题在于，日元贬值显著提高了进口能源、食品和原材料的成本。考虑到该国对能源进口的高度依赖，最近与伊朗相关的油价上涨只加剧了压力。虽然日元贬值通常会支持日本出口，但这种好处目前被进口通胀和更高的能源成本所掩盖。</p>
</div><p>If oil prices remain elevated and US Treasury yields continue to rise, the effectiveness of intervention is likely to diminish further. Under those conditions, USD/JPY could still move decisively beyond 160.00.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果油价保持高位且美国国债收益率继续上升，干预的有效性可能会进一步减弱。在这种情况下，美元/日元仍可能果断突破 160.00。</p>
</div><h2>Joint US-Japan efforts will be more effectively, but unlikely</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美日联合努力将更有效，但不太可能</h2>
</div><p>The market has already observed diminishing returns from successive rounds of intervention, and Japanese authorities are well aware that foreign exchange reserves are not unlimited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场已经观察到连续干预轮次的收益递减，日本当局也清楚外汇储备并非无限。</p>
</div><p>One possible avenue would be coordinated action with the United States, although Washington has so far shown little appetite for direct involvement. That said, if broad-based dollar strength were to accelerate sharply, the US Treasury could eventually work alongside Japanese authorities to stabilise the yen. Such a move would likely carry greater credibility than unilateral intervention alone, but for now there is little evidence to suggest that scenario is imminent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个可能的途径是与美国协调行动，尽管华盛顿迄今为止对直接参与表现出较少的兴趣。也就是说，如果美元的广泛强势加速，美国财政部最终可能会与日本当局合作以稳定日元。这种举动的可信度可能会高于单边干预，但目前没有证据表明这种情况即将发生。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, the broader outlook for USD/JPY remains bullish despite repeated intervention attempts. A sustained reversal lower would probably require a meaningful decline in oil prices, which in turn depends on tangible progress between the US and Iran and a broader easing in geopolitical tensions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，尽管反复尝试干预，美元/日元的整体前景仍然看涨。持续的下行反转可能需要油价显著下降，而这又取决于美国与伊朗之间的实质性进展以及地缘政治紧张局势的整体缓解。</p>
</div><h2>Technical USD/JPY outlook: Intervention risks rise again as 160 comes back into focus</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技术美元/日元前景：干预风险再次上升，160 再次成为焦点</h2>
</div><p>The USD/JPY outlook remains firmly pointed towards the exchange rate returning to the 160.00 area, which investors increasingly view as the line in the sand for Tokyo policymakers. If authorities refrain from stepping in around those levels again, attention is likely to shift quickly towards the 161.00 162.00 region — the zone where the Bank of Japan last intervened in July 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元的前景仍然坚定地指向汇率回到 160.00 区域，投资者越来越将其视为东京政策制定者的分界线。如果当局在这些水平附近再次不采取行动，注意力可能会迅速转向 161.00 至 162.00 区域——这是日本银行在 2024 年 7 月最后一次干预的区域。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20usdjpy.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5532/26.05.19%20usdjpy.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView.com</p>
</div><p>Since breaking above the key 157.90/158.00 area (now an important support to watch), the USD/JPY has also moved back above its 21-day exponential moving average and is now testing the 159.10 region, which previously acted as support before the sharp intervention-driven sell-off on 30 April. Break this and 160.00 could be the next stop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自突破关键的 157.90/158.00 区域（现在是一个重要的支撑位）以来，美元/日元也重新回到了其 21 日指数移动平均线之上，现在正在测试 159.10 区域，该区域在 4 月 30 日干预驱动的急剧抛售之前曾作为支撑位。突破这一点，160.00 可能是下一个目标。</p>
</div><p>-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Fawad Razaqzada，市场分析师</p>
</div><p>Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Fawad @Trader_F_R</p>
</div>

USD/JPY outlook: Yen remains under pressure as oil and US yields press higher

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