<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2025/06/A-worker-storing-platinum-bars-at-a-facility.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2025/06/A-worker-storing-platinum-bars-at-a-facility.png"/></p>
<p>根据世界铂金投资委员会（WPIC）的数据，铂金市场正面临连续第四年的供应不足。</p>
<p>德国商业银行的商品分析师卡斯滕·弗里茨（Carsten Fritsch）表示，预计到 2026 年，供应缺口将达到 297,000 盎司，略高于之前的预测。</p>
<p>弗里茨指出：“这将标志着铂金市场连续第四年出现供应赤字。” 他补充说，库存预计将大幅下降。</p>
<p>“由于预计今年将出现赤字，地面库存将降至 174.7 万盎司，库存使用比率将降至 22%。因此，库存将只能满足不到三个月的需求。”</p>
<p>过去三年的累计赤字已经达到 300 万盎司，突显了这种失衡的规模。去年的赤字接近 120 万盎司，创下历史最高纪录。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194594.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194594.png"/></p>
<p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
<h2>紧张局势缓解的迹象</h2>
<p>尽管前景严峻，但有迹象表明紧张局势可能正在缓解。</p>
<p>在 2026 年第一季度，铂金市场录得供应过剩 26.8 万盎司，这是六个季度以来的首次过剩。相比之下，去年同期的赤字为 65.8 万盎司，代表着 92.6 万盎司的转变。</p>
<p>弗里茨解释了这一变化：“尽管由于 ETF 资金流出、汽车行业需求疲软和铂金首饰需求下降，需求下降了 31%，但由于矿产生产增加和回收量上升，供应增长了 18%。”</p>
<p>矿产产量从较低的比较基数上升，南非生产商将维护计划从第一季度转移到第三季度。</p>
<p>与此同时，预计今年回收量将上升 9%，达到五年来的最高水平，这主要是由于汽车行业报废的催化转换器。</p>
<h2>各行业需求疲软</h2>
<p>根据 WPIC 的预测，2026 年铂金需求预计将下降 9%，降至四年来的最低点 767.4 万盎司。</p>
<p>投资需求的下降幅度最大，预计将比去年减少一半以上。</p>
<p>铂金 ETF 的净流出和交易所注册库存的下降对市场情绪造成了沉重打击。</p>
<p>实物需求（如铂金条和硬币）预计将上升，这表明一些投资者仍然偏好实物资产。但其他行业则面临困境。</p>
<p>随着内燃机车辆生产的下降，欧洲和日本的汽车需求正在下降，尽管北美和中国在重型车辆方面有所增长。</p>
<p>珠宝需求也面临压力。中国的购买量下降超过 40%，因为买家在去年激增后转向黄金。</p>
<p>这一反转发生在 2025 年中国铂金首饰需求达到七年来的最高点之后。其他工业用途（如玻璃行业）正在恢复，但不足以抵消其他领域的下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194688.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194688.png"/></p>
<p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
<h2>价格前景取决于黄金</h2>
<p>供需动态为价格呈现出复杂的局面。一方面，四年的供应不足和库存下降暗示着上涨压力。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>市场已经连续四年供应不足，库存因此大幅下降，这表明铂金价格将会上涨。这是通过增加供应和减少需求来重新平衡市场的唯一途径。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>另一方面，回收供应的增加和需求的疲软可能会限制涨幅。</p>
<p>“然而，与去年相比，预计供应赤字将减少近 90 万盎司。如果需求趋势持续，矿产和回收的供应大幅上升，市场可能会转向供应过剩——正如第一季度所发生的那样，” 他警告道。</p>
<p>德国商业银行预计到年底铂金价格将达到每盎司 2300 美元，尽管弗里茨强调这一预测主要与黄金价格上涨的预期有关，而不是铂金自身的基本面。</p>
<h2>处于转型中的市场</h2>
<p>铂金市场正处于结构性供应不足与周期性疲软之间。</p>
<p>库存正在减少，但需求正在减弱，尤其是在投资和珠宝领域。</p>
<p>回收量上升，反映出价格上涨和汽车行业的技术变革。</p>
<p>对于投资者来说，信息很明确：2026 年铂金价格的走势将更依赖于其自身的基本面，而不是更广泛的贵金属市场，尤其是黄金。</p>
<p>如果黄金如预期上涨，铂金可能会随之上涨。但如果需求继续疲软，回收进一步扩大，市场可能会转向过剩，从而限制价格上涨。</p>
<p>铂金赤字预计将在 2026 年缩小，但库存仍然承受压力的文章首发于 Invezz。</p>

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<p>铂金市场预计将面临连续第四年的供应不足，预计到 2026 年将出现 29.7 万盎司的短缺。库存预计将急剧下降，满足需求的时间不足三个月。尽管近期出现了供应过剩，但需求预计将下降，特别是在投资和珠宝领域。德国商业银行预测，铂金价格到年底可能达到每盎司 2300 美元，受黄金价格的影响大于铂金基本面的影响</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2025/06/A-worker-storing-platinum-bars-at-a-facility.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2025/06/A-worker-storing-platinum-bars-at-a-facility.png"/></p>
<p>The platinum market is heading for its fourth consecutive year of undersupply, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据世界铂金投资委员会（WPIC）的数据，铂金市场正面临连续第四年的供应不足。</p>
</div><p>Commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank AG said the shortfall is expected to reach 297,000 ounces in 2026, slightly higher than earlier forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国商业银行的商品分析师卡斯滕·弗里茨（Carsten Fritsch）表示，预计到 2026 年，供应缺口将达到 297,000 盎司，略高于之前的预测。</p>
</div><p>“This would mark the fourth consecutive year of a supply deficit in the platinum market,” Fritsch noted, adding that inventories are set to fall sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗里茨指出：“这将标志着铂金市场连续第四年出现供应赤字。” 他补充说，库存预计将大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>“With the deficit expected this year, above-ground stocks are set to fall to 1.747 million ounces and the stock-to-use ratio to 22%. Stocks would therefore cover demand for less than three months.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由于预计今年将出现赤字，地面库存将降至 174.7 万盎司，库存使用比率将降至 22%。因此，库存将只能满足不到三个月的需求。”</p>
</div><p>The cumulative deficit over the past three years has already reached 3 million ounces, underscoring the scale of the imbalance. Last year’s deficit was nearly 1.2 million ounces, the largest on record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去三年的累计赤字已经达到 300 万盎司，突显了这种失衡的规模。去年的赤字接近 120 万盎司，创下历史最高纪录。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194594.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194594.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
</div><h2>Signs of easing tightness</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>紧张局势缓解的迹象</h2>
</div><p>Despite the grim outlook, there are signs that tightness may be easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管前景严峻，但有迹象表明紧张局势可能正在缓解。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter of 2026, the platinum market recorded a supply surplus of 268,000 ounces—its first in six quarters. That compares with a deficit of 658,000 ounces in the same period last year, representing a swing of 926,000 ounces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年第一季度，铂金市场录得供应过剩 26.8 万盎司，这是六个季度以来的首次过剩。相比之下，去年同期的赤字为 65.8 万盎司，代表着 92.6 万盎司的转变。</p>
</div><p>Fritsch explained the shift: “Whilst demand fell by 31% due to ETF outflows, weaker demand from the automotive industry and for platinum jewellery, supply rose by 18% due to higher mine production and increased recycling.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>弗里茨解释了这一变化：“尽管由于 ETF 资金流出、汽车行业需求疲软和铂金首饰需求下降，需求下降了 31%，但由于矿产生产增加和回收量上升，供应增长了 18%。”</p>
</div><p>Mine output rose from a low comparative base, with South African producers shifting maintenance schedules from the first to the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>矿产产量从较低的比较基数上升，南非生产商将维护计划从第一季度转移到第三季度。</p>
</div><p>Recycling, meanwhile, is expected to rise 9% this year to a five-year high, driven largely by scrapped catalytic converters from the automotive sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，预计今年回收量将上升 9%，达到五年来的最高水平，这主要是由于汽车行业报废的催化转换器。</p>
</div><h2>Demand weakens across sectors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>各行业需求疲软</h2>
</div><p>Platinum demand is forecast to fall 9% in 2026 to a four-year low of 7.674 million ounces, according to WPIC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 WPIC 的预测，2026 年铂金需求预计将下降 9%，降至四年来的最低点 767.4 万盎司。</p>
</div><p>The sharpest decline is in investment demand, which is expected to more than halve compared with last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资需求的下降幅度最大，预计将比去年减少一半以上。</p>
</div><p>Net outflows from platinum ETFs and a drop in exchange-registered stocks are weighing heavily on sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铂金 ETF 的净流出和交易所注册库存的下降对市场情绪造成了沉重打击。</p>
</div><p>Physical demand for bars and coins is expected to rise, suggesting some investors still favor tangible holdings. But other sectors are struggling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实物需求（如铂金条和硬币）预计将上升，这表明一些投资者仍然偏好实物资产。但其他行业则面临困境。</p>
</div><p>Automotive demand is falling in Europe and Japan as production of internal combustion vehicles declines, though North America and China are seeing gains, particularly in heavy-duty vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着内燃机车辆生产的下降，欧洲和日本的汽车需求正在下降，尽管北美和中国在重型车辆方面有所增长。</p>
</div><p>Jewellery demand is also under pressure. Purchases in China have slumped more than 40%, as buyers shift back to gold after last year’s surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>珠宝需求也面临压力。中国的购买量下降超过 40%，因为买家在去年激增后转向黄金。</p>
</div><p>That reversal comes after platinum jewellery demand in China hit a seven-year high in 2025. Other industrial uses, such as in the glass industry, are recovering, but not enough to offset declines elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一反转发生在 2025 年中国铂金首饰需求达到七年来的最高点之后。其他工业用途（如玻璃行业）正在恢复，但不足以抵消其他领域的下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194688.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1779194688.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Commerzbank Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：德国商业银行研究</p>
</div><h2>Price outlook hinges on gold</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>价格前景取决于黄金</h2>
</div><p>The supply-demand dynamics present a mixed picture for prices. On one hand, four years of undersupply and falling inventories suggest upward pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供需动态为价格呈现出复杂的局面。一方面，四年的供应不足和库存下降暗示着上涨压力。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The fact that the market has been undersupplied for four years and that inventories have consequently fallen significantly points to a rise in the platinum price. This is the only way to rebalance the market via an increase in supply and a decline in demand.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>市场已经连续四年供应不足，库存因此大幅下降，这表明铂金价格将会上涨。这是通过增加供应和减少需求来重新平衡市场的唯一途径。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>On the other hand, rising recycled supply and weakening demand could limit gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，回收供应的增加和需求的疲软可能会限制涨幅。</p>
</div><p>“Compared with the previous year, however, the supply deficit is expected to be almost 900,000 ounces lower. Should demand trends continue and supply from mining and recycling rise more sharply, the market could shift to a supply surplus – as already happened in the first quarter,” he cautioned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，与去年相比，预计供应赤字将减少近 90 万盎司。如果需求趋势持续，矿产和回收的供应大幅上升，市场可能会转向供应过剩——正如第一季度所发生的那样，” 他警告道。</p>
</div><p>Commerzbank expects platinum to reach $2,300 per troy ounce by year-end, though Fritsch emphasized that this forecast is primarily tied to expectations of a rising gold price rather than platinum’s own fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国商业银行预计到年底铂金价格将达到每盎司 2300 美元，尽管弗里茨强调这一预测主要与黄金价格上涨的预期有关，而不是铂金自身的基本面。</p>
</div><h2>A market in transition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>处于转型中的市场</h2>
</div><p>The platinum market is caught between structural undersupply and cyclical weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铂金市场正处于结构性供应不足与周期性疲软之间。</p>
</div><p>Inventories are shrinking, but demand is faltering, particularly in investment and jewellery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>库存正在减少，但需求正在减弱，尤其是在投资和珠宝领域。</p>
</div><p>Recycling is rising, reflecting both higher prices and technological shifts in the automotive sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回收量上升，反映出价格上涨和汽车行业的技术变革。</p>
</div><p>For investors, the message is clear: platinum’s price trajectory in 2026 will depend less on its own fundamentals and more on the broader precious metals complex, especially gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者来说，信息很明确：2026 年铂金价格的走势将更依赖于其自身的基本面，而不是更广泛的贵金属市场，尤其是黄金。</p>
</div><p>If gold rallies as expected, platinum may follow. But if demand continues to weaken and recycling expands further, the market could tip into surplus, capping price gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果黄金如预期上涨，铂金可能会随之上涨。但如果需求继续疲软，回收进一步扩大，市场可能会转向过剩，从而限制价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>The post Platinum deficit set to narrow in 2026 but inventories remain under strain appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铂金赤字预计将在 2026 年缩小，但库存仍然承受压力的文章首发于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

铂金的供应缺口预计将在 2026 年缩小，但库存仍然面临压力