<p>作者：诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
<p>分析师表示，股票、商品和货币等风险资产在近期历史中证明能够抵御更大幅度的抛售。</p>
<p>德意志银行的分析师表示，导致过去能源冲击期间风险资产出现激烈抛售的因素目前并不存在。</p>
<p>德意志银行认为，尽管伊朗长期战争的可能性加大，风险资产仍可能保持韧性。</p>
<p>尽管近期由于投资者对霍尔木兹海峡可能持续关闭的担忧，股票、商品和货币等风险资产出现了下滑，但由德意志银行宏观经济策略师亨利·艾伦领导的分析师在周二的一份报告中写道，这些资产在近期历史中证明能够抵御更大幅度的抛售。</p>
<p>尽管市场已经考虑到中东持续冲突和滞涨的可能性，他们指出，标普 500 指数（S&amp;P 500）距离历史最高点仅低 1.3%，而欧洲的 Stoxx 600 指数距离其历史最高点仅低 4%，美国和欧洲的信用利差也比战争在 2 月底开始时更为紧缩。</p>
<p>布伦特原油（BRN00）（BRNN26），作为全球基准，仍徘徊在每桶 110 美元左右，而西德克萨斯中质原油（CL.1）（CLM26），作为美国基准，稳稳保持在每桶 100 美元以上。同时，预测市场 Polymarket 的投注者预计霍尔木兹海峡在 6 月底重新开放的概率仅为 31%，而在 7 月底重新开放的概率为 46%。(Polymarket 与《华尔街日报》的出版商道琼斯有数据合作关系。)</p>
<p>分析师指出：“这种明显的错位看起来不一致，但导致过去风险资产大幅下跌的条件目前并不存在。”</p>
<p>他们写道：“所有这些之前的抛售都伴随着能源冲击的持续、明显的经济衰退数据或激进的中央银行紧缩。”</p>
<p>需要关注的第一个因素是长期的油价冲击。回顾过去几十年的重大危机，油价通常会持续高企。1973 年，当阿拉伯石油禁运袭击美国时，油价几乎翻了四倍，并维持了多年。2022 年，当俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，12 个月的布伦特期货价格攀升至每桶 100 美元以上，尽管这一冲击是暂时的。然而，在当前情况下，历史价格与 6 个月期货之间存在持续的差距。</p>
<p>分析师还强调，数据下滑通常会迅速跟随之前的能源冲击，例如 1973 年失业率立即上升。这一次，美国非农就业人数在 3 月和 4 月增长超过 10 万，而全球采购经理人指数在 4 月上升。</p>
<p>他们提到的最后一个条件是中央银行进入激进加息周期，正如在 2022 年和 1979 年伊朗革命后发生的那样。美联储、欧洲中央银行和日本银行尚未加息。</p>
<p>-诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-19-26 0940ET</p>

标普 500 指数

德意志银行

标普 500 ETF - iShares

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

<p>德意志银行的分析师建议，尽管对伊朗长期冲突的担忧，股票和商品等风险资产可能仍会保持韧性。他们指出，目前的情况与过去导致重大抛售的能源冲击不同。标普 500 指数接近历史最高点，信用利差也比冲突开始前更紧。分析师强调，目前并不存在持续的能源冲击、经济衰退数据和激进的中央银行收紧政策等关键因素</p>

<p>By Nora Redmond</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
</div><p>Riskier assets like stocks, commodities and currencies have proved in recent history to be able to resist more significant selloffs, analysts say</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，股票、商品和货币等风险资产在近期历史中证明能够抵御更大幅度的抛售。</p>
</div><p>The factors that led to aggressive selloffs in riskier assets during past energy shocks are not currently in place, analysts at Deutsche Bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德意志银行的分析师表示，导致过去能源冲击期间风险资产出现激烈抛售的因素目前并不存在。</p>
</div><p>Risk assets look likely to remain resilient despite the heightened chance of a prolonged war in Iran, according to Deutsche Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德意志银行认为，尽管伊朗长期战争的可能性加大，风险资产仍可能保持韧性。</p>
</div><p>While riskier assets like stocks, commodities and currencies have faltered in recent weeks as investors panic about the potential for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed, those assets have proved in recent history to be able to resist more significant selloffs, analysts led by Henry Allen, macroeconomic strategist at at the German investment bank's research unit, wrote in a note on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管近期由于投资者对霍尔木兹海峡可能持续关闭的担忧，股票、商品和货币等风险资产出现了下滑，但由德意志银行宏观经济策略师亨利·艾伦领导的分析师在周二的一份报告中写道，这些资产在近期历史中证明能够抵御更大幅度的抛售。</p>
</div><p>Despite markets pricing in a continued conflict in the Middle East and an increased chance of stagflation, they noted, the S&amp;P 500 SPX is close to 1.3% below its all-time high, while Europe's Stoxx 600 is within 4% of its record high and credit spreads in both the U.S. and Europe are tighter than when the war started at the end of February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管市场已经考虑到中东持续冲突和滞涨的可能性，他们指出，标普 500 指数（S&amp;P 500）距离历史最高点仅低 1.3%，而欧洲的 Stoxx 600 指数距离其历史最高点仅低 4%，美国和欧洲的信用利差也比战争在 2 月底开始时更为紧缩。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude (BRN00) (BRNN26), the global benchmark, is still hovering around the $110-a-barrel mark, and West Texas Intermediate (CL.1) (CLM26), the U.S. benchmark, is holding firmly above $100 per barrel. At the same time, bettors on prediction market Polymarket are pricing in just a 31% chance of the Strait of Hormuz reopening by the end of June and a 46% chance of it doing so by the end of July. (Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of MarketWatch.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油（BRN00）（BRNN26），作为全球基准，仍徘徊在每桶 110 美元左右，而西德克萨斯中质原油（CL.1）（CLM26），作为美国基准，稳稳保持在每桶 100 美元以上。同时，预测市场 Polymarket 的投注者预计霍尔木兹海峡在 6 月底重新开放的概率仅为 31%，而在 7 月底重新开放的概率为 46%。(Polymarket 与《华尔街日报》的出版商道琼斯有数据合作关系。)</p>
</div><p>&#34;This seeming dislocation looks inconsistent,&#34; the analysts noted, but none of the conditions that caused major declines in risk assets in the past are currently in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师指出：“这种明显的错位看起来不一致，但导致过去风险资产大幅下跌的条件目前并不存在。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;All those previous selloffs featured some combination of persistence in the energy shock, economic data that was clearly recessionary, or aggressive central bank tightening,&#34; they wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们写道：“所有这些之前的抛售都伴随着能源冲击的持续、明显的经济衰退数据或激进的中央银行紧缩。”</p>
</div><p>One of the first factors to watch out for is a protracted oil shock. Looking at the major crises of the past few decades, higher prices lasted for a long time. In 1973, when an Arab oil embargo hit the U.S., prices almost quadrupled and stayed there for years. In 2022, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, 12-month Brent futures climbed above $100 a barrel, although the shock was temporary. In the current situation, however, there has been a consistent gap between back-dated prices and 6-month futures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要关注的第一个因素是长期的油价冲击。回顾过去几十年的重大危机，油价通常会持续高企。1973 年，当阿拉伯石油禁运袭击美国时，油价几乎翻了四倍，并维持了多年。2022 年，当俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，12 个月的布伦特期货价格攀升至每桶 100 美元以上，尽管这一冲击是暂时的。然而，在当前情况下，历史价格与 6 个月期货之间存在持续的差距。</p>
</div><p>The analysts also highlighted that data downturns have quickly followed previous energy shocks, like when the unemployment rate immediately climbed in 1973. This time, U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by over 100,000 in March and April and the global Purchasing Managers Index for April rose.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师还强调，数据下滑通常会迅速跟随之前的能源冲击，例如 1973 年失业率立即上升。这一次，美国非农就业人数在 3 月和 4 月增长超过 10 万，而全球采购经理人指数在 4 月上升。</p>
</div><p>The last condition they noted is central banks entering into cycles of aggressive interest-rate hikes, as happened during the shocks of 2022 and 1979, which followed the Iranian Revolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank nor the Bank of Japan have tightened rates yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们提到的最后一个条件是中央银行进入激进加息周期，正如在 2022 年和 1979 年伊朗革命后发生的那样。美联储、欧洲中央银行和日本银行尚未加息。</p>
</div><p>-Nora Redmond</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 0940ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 0940ET</p>
</div>

Don't worry about risk assets coming under pressure just yet, Deutsche Bank says

- 德意志银行分析师表示，风险资产能抵御重大抛售。  
- 当前并无导致以往抛售的因素，如持续的能源冲击和经济衰退。  
- 尽管中东冲突持续，风险资产依然显示出韧性。

德意志银行称，目前无需担心风险资产会面临压力