<p>苹果公司（NASDAQ: AAPL）的股票在最近几周表现出色，上周首次突破 300 美元。这意味着自四月初以来，股价上涨超过 20%，在经历了数月的区间交易后终于反弹。</p>
<p>推动这一走势的更广泛的牛市论点已经被充分记录——一份超预期的财报、两位数的收入增长、1000 亿美元的大规模回购，以及市场已经坚定地转向风险偏好模式。</p>
<p>然而，受到的关注相对较少的是，苹果在其业务的一个非常特定部分可能仍然被严重低估的论点。Evercore ISI 上周的一份新报告指出，该公司的服务部门在最近一个季度产生了近 310 亿美元的收入，但市场却将其定价为硬件业务。</p>
<p>分析师认为，如果将其更恰当地估值，作为一个高利润、经常性收入的软件业务，可能会单独为苹果的股价增加多达 13 美元。考虑到苹果目前正在销售创纪录数量的标志性 iPhone，这一观点值得认真对待。</p>
<h2>为什么服务业务变得不容忽视</h2>
<p>Evercore 论点的核心并不复杂，这也是其吸引人的部分。根据分析师 Amit Daryanani 的说法，苹果的服务部门涵盖了 App Store、Apple Music、iCloud、Apple TV+、Apple Pay 以及不断增长的订阅产品组合，其增长方式并不像硬件业务，而更像是软件业务。</p>
<p>更重要的是，利润率的表现与 iPhone 业务截然不同。服务业务的毛利率远高于硬件，这意味着每增加一美元的服务收入对底线的贡献远远超过一美元的 iPhone 收入。</p>
<p>这一区别在建模苹果未来三到五年的收益时至关重要，因为服务业务在整体收入结构中占据越来越主导的份额。公司的活跃设备安装基础为持续增长提供了极其稳固的基础，感觉苹果在从该生态系统中变现方面几乎才刚刚开始。</p>
<h2>华尔街开始连接点滴</h2>
<p>Evercore ISI 的看涨观点并不是在真空中出现的。上周，Tigress Financial 重申了对苹果股票的强力买入评级，并将其目标价提高至 375 美元，意味着从当前水平还有约 25% 的上涨空间。</p>
<p>这一立场与 TD Cowen 和 Wedbush 本月的类似看涨呼声相呼应，后者设定了引人注目的 400 美元目标价。当前股价刚刚达到 300 美元，而这些目标价却聚集在 300 美元之上，表明华尔街最聪明的资金并不将 300 美元视为上限，而是作为一个中途点。</p>
<h3>苹果公司（AAPL）2026 年 5 月 19 日的价格图表</h3>
<p>所有这一切的背景是 WWDC，苹果的年度开发者大会，将于下个月举行，可能成为一个重要的短期催化剂。如果苹果利用这一活动进一步加大对人工智能和服务路线图的投入，将为市场提供一个具体的理由来支持看涨的分析师观点。</p>
<h2>估值担忧是真实的</h2>
<p>与此同时，这并不意味着股票没有风险，投资者应该清楚他们在为什么付费。苹果当前的市盈率（P/E）约为 36，是过去十年中最高的之一。</p>
<p>服务是一个潜在巨头的论点很有吸引力，但只有在该部门继续以两位数的速度增长时才成立。如果宏观经济逆风开始影响消费者对订阅的支出，或者如果整体股市出现风险规避情绪，苹果股票的溢价将更难以证明。</p>
<p>还有一个简单的观察是，股票在最近几周已经显著上涨。在 300 美元时介入的投资者并不算是这轮反弹的早期参与者，考虑到如此强劲的上涨后短期获利了结并不是不合理的担忧。股票现在可能看起来并不技术性超买，但确实正在逼近那个领域。</p>
<p>投资者现在真正的问题不是苹果是否是一家伟大的公司。这一点没有争议。关键在于市场是否正确地评估了它的全部潜力。如果服务业务的论点在接下来的几周内获得更广泛的关注，当前的价格在事后看来可能会显得便宜，这正是看涨者所期待的。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在苹果吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑苹果之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只顶级分析师正在悄悄推荐给客户的股票，建议在更广泛的市场注意到之前买入……而苹果并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然苹果目前在分析师中获得了适度买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得投资。</p>
<p>查看这五只股票</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的服务部门正受到关注，成为关键的增长动力，分析师认为这可能会显著提升股票的价值。自四月以来，股价已上涨超过 20%，这得益于强劲的收益和 1000 亿美元的回购计划。Evercore ISI 的分析师认为，服务部门的利润率高于硬件，当前被低估。各公司给出的目标价暗示了进一步的上涨潜力。然而，关于估值和市场状况的担忧依然存在，因为该股票的市盈率较高，近期的涨幅可能导致获利了结</p>

<p>Shares of Apple Inc NASDAQ: AAPL have been on an impressive run in recent weeks, breaking through $300 for the first time last week. It means they're now up more than 20% since the start of April, finally rallying after months of range-bound trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果公司（NASDAQ: AAPL）的股票在最近几周表现出色，上周首次突破 300 美元。这意味着自四月初以来，股价上涨超过 20%，在经历了数月的区间交易后终于反弹。</p>
</div><p>The broader bull case that has fuelled this move has been well documented—a blowout earnings report, double-digit revenue growth, a massive $100 billion buyback, and a market that has firmly shifted back into risk-on mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动这一走势的更广泛的牛市论点已经被充分记录——一份超预期的财报、两位数的收入增长、1000 亿美元的大规模回购，以及市场已经坚定地转向风险偏好模式。</p>
</div><p>What's received considerably less attention, though, is the argument that Apple may still be significantly undervalued in one very specific part of its business. A fresh note from Evercore ISI last week argued that the company's Services segment, which generated nearly $31 billion in revenue in its most recent quarter, is being priced by the market as if it were a hardware business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，受到的关注相对较少的是，苹果在其业务的一个非常特定部分可能仍然被严重低估的论点。Evercore ISI 上周的一份新报告指出，该公司的服务部门在最近一个季度产生了近 310 亿美元的收入，但市场却将其定价为硬件业务。</p>
</div><p>The analysts believe that if it were valued more appropriately, as a high-margin, recurring-revenue software operation, it could add as much as $13 per share to Apple's stock price on its own. Considering Apple is currently selling record numbers of its iconic iPhone, that's an interesting take worth taking seriously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师认为，如果将其更恰当地估值，作为一个高利润、经常性收入的软件业务，可能会单独为苹果的股价增加多达 13 美元。考虑到苹果目前正在销售创纪录数量的标志性 iPhone，这一观点值得认真对待。</p>
</div><h2>Why Services Is Becoming Impossible to Ignore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么服务业务变得不容忽视</h2>
</div><p>The core of Evercore's argument isn't complicated, and that's part of what makes it so compelling. According to analyst Amit Daryanani, Apple's Services division, which covers the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, Apple TV+, Apple Pay, and a growing suite of subscription products, isn't growing like a hardware business; it's growing like a software one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore 论点的核心并不复杂，这也是其吸引人的部分。根据分析师 Amit Daryanani 的说法，苹果的服务部门涵盖了 App Store、Apple Music、iCloud、Apple TV+、Apple Pay 以及不断增长的订阅产品组合，其增长方式并不像硬件业务，而更像是软件业务。</p>
</div><p>More importantly, the margin profile tells a very different story from the iPhone business. Services carries dramatically higher gross margins than hardware, meaning every incremental dollar of Services revenue benefits the bottom line far more than a dollar of iPhone revenue ever could.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，利润率的表现与 iPhone 业务截然不同。服务业务的毛利率远高于硬件，这意味着每增加一美元的服务收入对底线的贡献远远超过一美元的 iPhone 收入。</p>
</div><p>That distinction matters enormously when modeling what Apple's earnings could look like three to five years from now, as Services becomes an increasingly dominant share of the overall revenue mix. The company's installed base of active devices provides a remarkably durable foundation for that continued growth, and it feels as if Apple has barely scratched the surface of what it could monetize from that ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一区别在建模苹果未来三到五年的收益时至关重要，因为服务业务在整体收入结构中占据越来越主导的份额。公司的活跃设备安装基础为持续增长提供了极其稳固的基础，感觉苹果在从该生态系统中变现方面几乎才刚刚开始。</p>
</div><h2>Wall Street Is Starting to Connect the Dots</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街开始连接点滴</h2>
</div><p>The bullish take from Evercore ISI didn't exactly arrive in a vacuum either. Last week, Tigress Financial reiterated its Strong Buy rating on Apple stock and raised its price target to $375, implying around 25% additional upside from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Evercore ISI 的看涨观点并不是在真空中出现的。上周，Tigress Financial 重申了对苹果股票的强力买入评级，并将其目标价提高至 375 美元，意味着从当前水平还有约 25% 的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>That stance echoes similarly bullish calls from TD Cowen and Wedbush this month, too, the latter of which has set an eye-catching $400 price target. The fact that these targets are clustering well above $300 at a time when the stock is only just reaching that level signals that the smartest money on Wall Street isn't treating $300 as a ceiling, but rather as a waypoint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一立场与 TD Cowen 和 Wedbush 本月的类似看涨呼声相呼应，后者设定了引人注目的 400 美元目标价。当前股价刚刚达到 300 美元，而这些目标价却聚集在 300 美元之上，表明华尔街最聪明的资金并不将 300 美元视为上限，而是作为一个中途点。</p>
</div><h3>Apple Inc. (AAPL) Price Chart for Tuesday, May, 19, 2026</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>苹果公司（AAPL）2026 年 5 月 19 日的价格图表</h3>
</div><p>Underscoring all of this is WWDC, Apple's annual developer conference, which is happening next month and could serve as a significant near-term catalyst. If Apple uses the event to double down on its AI and Services roadmap, it would give the market a concrete reason to back up the bullish analyst calls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这一切的背景是 WWDC，苹果的年度开发者大会，将于下个月举行，可能成为一个重要的短期催化剂。如果苹果利用这一活动进一步加大对人工智能和服务路线图的投入，将为市场提供一个具体的理由来支持看涨的分析师观点。</p>
</div><h2>The Valuation Concern Is Real</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值担忧是真实的</h2>
</div><p>At the same time, none of this means the stock is without risk, and investors should think clearly about what they're paying for. Apple's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 36, one of its highest in the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，这并不意味着股票没有风险，投资者应该清楚他们在为什么付费。苹果当前的市盈率（P/E）约为 36，是过去十年中最高的之一。</p>
</div><p>The Services-is-a-sleeping-giant thesis is compelling, but it only holds up if the segment continues to grow at double-digit rates. If macro headwinds start hurting consumer spending on subscriptions, or if equities in general take on a risk-off sentiment, the premium on Apple stock would be much harder to justify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服务是一个潜在巨头的论点很有吸引力，但只有在该部门继续以两位数的速度增长时才成立。如果宏观经济逆风开始影响消费者对订阅的支出，或者如果整体股市出现风险规避情绪，苹果股票的溢价将更难以证明。</p>
</div><p>There's also the straightforward observation that the stock has already gained significantly in recent weeks. Investors getting involved at $300 aren't exactly getting in on the ground floor of the rally, and some near-term profit-taking following such a strong run isn't an unreasonable concern. The stock mightn't look technically overbought right now, but it's definitely edging towards that territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有一个简单的观察是，股票在最近几周已经显著上涨。在 300 美元时介入的投资者并不算是这轮反弹的早期参与者，考虑到如此强劲的上涨后短期获利了结并不是不合理的担忧。股票现在可能看起来并不技术性超买，但确实正在逼近那个领域。</p>
</div><p>The real question for investors right now isn't whether Apple is a great business. That's not in dispute. It's whether the market is correctly valuing it given its full potential. If the Services argument gains broader traction in the coming weeks, the current price might look like a bargain in hindsight, which is exactly what the bulls are counting on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者现在真正的问题不是苹果是否是一家伟大的公司。这一点没有争议。关键在于市场是否正确地评估了它的全部潜力。如果服务业务的论点在接下来的几周内获得更广泛的关注，当前的价格在事后看来可能会显得便宜，这正是看涨者所期待的。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Apple Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在苹果吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Apple, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑苹果之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Apple wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只顶级分析师正在悄悄推荐给客户的股票，建议在更广泛的市场注意到之前买入……而苹果并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Apple currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然苹果目前在分析师中获得了适度买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得投资。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

AAPL: Forget the iPhone—Services Will Drive the Next Phase of Growth

- 苹果公司股票最近上涨超过 20%，首次突破 300 美元。  
- Evercore ISI 认为其服务业务被低估，可能单独为股价增加 13 美元。  
- 分析师提醒投资者注意当前市盈率高，风险不容忽视。

苹果：抛开 iPhone 不谈——服务业务将推动下一阶段的增长