<p>周二股市下跌，标准普尔 500 指数（S&amp;P 500，SPX）下跌 0.70%，纳斯达克指数（NASDAQ，NDX）下跌约 1%，投资者继续对国债收益率上升、油价高企和持续的通胀担忧作出反应。最近的经济数据描绘出一个依然强劲的经济，但这种强劲也使得对未来美联储政策的预期变得复杂。上周强于预期的通胀数据推动债券收益率进一步上升，而由于中东紧张局势，油价保持高位，增加了通胀可能比市场之前预期的更持久的担忧。</p>
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<p>科技股是此次下跌的主要推动力，因为更高的收益率继续对以增长为导向的估值施加压力。投资者在过去一年中大多时间都在热衷于人工智能支出和企业盈利的韧性。然而，最近市场对借贷成本上升和利率可能比预期更长时间保持高位变得更加敏感。</p>
<p>根据高盛投资组合策略副总裁安德烈亚·费拉里奥（Andrea Ferrario）的说法，最近的疲软反映了投资者对收益率上升的解读发生了重大变化。费拉里奥认为，当强劲的经济增长推动收益率上升时，股票通常能够合理应对更高的利率。在这些时期，改善的盈利预期可以帮助抵消因折现率上升而引发的估值担忧。</p>
<p>费拉里奥认为，目前的形势看起来非常不同，因为通胀担忧，而不是对经济扩张的乐观情绪，现在似乎是推动收益率上升的主要原因。他指出，上周的通胀数据意外上行，而经济活动依然稳健，导致全球债券抛售超出了美国的范围。</p>
<p>费拉里奥解释说，美国股票与 10 年期国债收益率之间的相关性最近变得 “自 90 年代末以来最为负面”，反映出市场对当前宏观背景的担忧程度加深。</p>
<p>费拉里奥还指出，最近与中东紧张局势相关的能源冲击，认为对通胀敏感的债券市场领域对股票表现的影响变得更加显著。费拉里奥表示，“在通胀主导的利率环境中，股票/债券收益率的相关性变为负值”，这意味着收益率上升对股价的支持作用大大减弱。</p>
<p>另一个担忧是最近债券市场变动的速度。费拉里奥指出，历史上每当收益率以无序的方式上升时，股票通常会面临困难，无论经济状况是否健康。他将上周国债收益率的跳升形容为 “提醒我们不要过早忽视利率的右尾风险”，尤其是在美国 10 年期收益率在短时间内经历了异常大的波动之后。</p>
<p>费拉里奥还建议投资者应密切关注实际收益率，而不仅仅关注名义国债利率。历史上，当实际收益率超过某些阈值时，市场往往会遇到更多困难，尤其是在借贷成本开始超过长期增长预期时。</p>
<p>与此同时，最近几个月股市的韧性在很大程度上依赖于对人工智能投资和其他微观驱动主题的热情，而不是广泛的宏观经济改善。费拉里奥表示，如果收益率继续上升而通胀压力保持高位，这种支持可能会变得更加难以维持。</p>

纳斯达克 100 指数

纳斯达克综合指数

标普 500 指数

GS-A

GS-D

GS-C

高盛

纳指 100 ETF - Invesco

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

<p>股市在周二下跌，标普 500 指数下跌 0.70%，纳斯达克指数下跌 1%，主要受到国债收益率上升、高油价和通胀担忧的影响。高盛的安德烈亚·费拉里奥指出，目前市场反应反映了投资者情绪的转变，因为通胀担忧掩盖了经济增长的乐观情绪。他强调了股票与国债收益率之间的负相关关系，指出在通胀主导的环境中，收益率上升可能会阻碍股票表现。投资者被建议密切关注实际收益率，因为它们会影响市场动态</p>

<p>The stock market moved lower on Tuesday, with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) declining 0.70% while the Nasdaq (NDX) dropped about 1%, as investors continued reacting to rising Treasury yields, elevated oil prices, and persistent inflation worries. Recent economic data painted a picture of an economy that remains resilient, yet that strength has also complicated expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy. Bond yields climbed further following stronger-than-expected inflation readings last week, while oil prices remained elevated amid Middle East tensions, adding to concerns that inflation could stay hotter for longer than markets previously anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二股市下跌，标准普尔 500 指数（S&amp;P 500，SPX）下跌 0.70%，纳斯达克指数（NASDAQ，NDX）下跌约 1%，投资者继续对国债收益率上升、油价高企和持续的通胀担忧作出反应。最近的经济数据描绘出一个依然强劲的经济，但这种强劲也使得对未来美联储政策的预期变得复杂。上周强于预期的通胀数据推动债券收益率进一步上升，而由于中东紧张局势，油价保持高位，增加了通胀可能比市场之前预期的更持久的担忧。</p>
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</div><p>Tech stocks led much of the decline as higher yields continued weighing on growth-oriented valuations. Investors spent much of the past year embracing enthusiasm surrounding AI spending and resilient corporate earnings. Lately, however, markets have become far more sensitive to rising borrowing costs and the possibility that interest rates could stay elevated longer than anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技股是此次下跌的主要推动力，因为更高的收益率继续对以增长为导向的估值施加压力。投资者在过去一年中大多时间都在热衷于人工智能支出和企业盈利的韧性。然而，最近市场对借贷成本上升和利率可能比预期更长时间保持高位变得更加敏感。</p>
</div><p>According to Goldman Sachs Portfolio Strategy Vice President Andrea Ferrario, the recent weakness reflects a meaningful shift in how investors interpret rising yields. Ferrario argues that equities generally handle higher rates reasonably well when stronger economic growth drives the move. In those periods, improving earnings expectations can help offset valuation concerns caused by higher discount rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据高盛投资组合策略副总裁安德烈亚·费拉里奥（Andrea Ferrario）的说法，最近的疲软反映了投资者对收益率上升的解读发生了重大变化。费拉里奥认为，当强劲的经济增长推动收益率上升时，股票通常能够合理应对更高的利率。在这些时期，改善的盈利预期可以帮助抵消因折现率上升而引发的估值担忧。</p>
</div><p>Ferrario believes the current setup looks very different because inflation concerns, rather than optimism surrounding economic expansion, now appear responsible for much of the move higher in yields. He notes that inflation data surprised to the upside last week while economic activity remained solid, contributing to a global bond selloff that extended beyond the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>费拉里奥认为，目前的形势看起来非常不同，因为通胀担忧，而不是对经济扩张的乐观情绪，现在似乎是推动收益率上升的主要原因。他指出，上周的通胀数据意外上行，而经济活动依然稳健，导致全球债券抛售超出了美国的范围。</p>
</div><p>Ferrario explains that the correlation between U.S. equities and 10-year Treasury yields recently turned &#34;the most negative since the late 1990s,&#34; reflecting how uncomfortable markets have become with the present macro backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>费拉里奥解释说，美国股票与 10 年期国债收益率之间的相关性最近变得 “自 90 年代末以来最为负面”，反映出市场对当前宏观背景的担忧程度加深。</p>
</div><p>Ferrario also points toward the recent energy shock linked to Middle East tensions, arguing that inflation-sensitive areas of the bond market have become far more influential for equity performance. According to Ferrario, &#34;in an inflation-led rate environment the equity/bond yield correlation turns negative,&#34; meaning rising yields become far less supportive for stock prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>费拉里奥还指出，最近与中东紧张局势相关的能源冲击，认为对通胀敏感的债券市场领域对股票表现的影响变得更加显著。费拉里奥表示，“在通胀主导的利率环境中，股票/债券收益率的相关性变为负值”，这意味着收益率上升对股价的支持作用大大减弱。</p>
</div><p>Another concern involves the pace of the recent bond-market move. Ferrario points out that equities historically struggle whenever yields rise in a disorderly fashion, regardless of whether economic conditions remain healthy. He describes last week's jump in Treasury yields as &#34;a reminder not to fade right tail risk in rates too early,&#34; particularly after the U.S. 10-year yield experienced an unusually large move within a short period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个担忧是最近债券市场变动的速度。费拉里奥指出，历史上每当收益率以无序的方式上升时，股票通常会面临困难，无论经济状况是否健康。他将上周国债收益率的跳升形容为 “提醒我们不要过早忽视利率的右尾风险”，尤其是在美国 10 年期收益率在短时间内经历了异常大的波动之后。</p>
</div><p>Ferrario also suggests that investors should pay close attention to real yields rather than focusing only on nominal Treasury rates. Historically, markets have encountered more difficulty whenever real yields move beyond certain thresholds, especially when borrowing costs begin exceeding longer-term growth expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>费拉里奥还建议投资者应密切关注实际收益率，而不仅仅关注名义国债利率。历史上，当实际收益率超过某些阈值时，市场往往会遇到更多困难，尤其是在借贷成本开始超过长期增长预期时。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the stock-market resilience during recent months depended heavily on enthusiasm surrounding AI investment and other micro-driven themes rather than broad macroeconomic improvement. That support, according to Ferrario, may become harder to maintain if yields continue climbing while inflation pressures remain elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，最近几个月股市的韧性在很大程度上依赖于对人工智能投资和其他微观驱动主题的热情，而不是广泛的宏观经济改善。费拉里奥表示，如果收益率继续上升而通胀压力保持高位，这种支持可能会变得更加难以维持。</p>
</div>

Why the Stock Market Is Down Today and What Goldman Sachs Expects Ahead

- 周二股市下挫，标普 500 指数下跌 0.70%，纳斯达克下跌约 1%。
- 投资者对国债收益率上升、油价高企和持续通胀的担忧作出反应。
- 高收益率对股票市场的支持减弱，特别是在通胀敏感领域的影响下。

为什么今天股市下跌以及高盛对未来的预期是什么