<p>作者：Claudia Assis 和 Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>最近，绕过好望角和通过巴拿马运河的油轮通行量达到了新高</p>
<p>Tradition Energy 的 Gary Cunningham 表示，从波斯湾运输石油的管道 &#34;仅运输了通常通过油轮运输的一小部分&#34;。</p>
<p>由于霍尔木兹海峡几乎停滞不前，原油和重要的原油产品如汽油和液化气正在绕道前往目的地，各国被迫通过几个月前相对安静的路线来满足其能源需求。</p>
<p>自美国和以色列在二月底与伊朗开战以来，绕过非洲好望角的油轮和干散货船的交通量按船舶运载能力计算比之前高出约 20%。在四月中旬达到了历史最高点。</p>
<p>通过巴拿马运河的油轮交通量也在增加，三月底达到了至少五年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>这些路线虽然不是完美的解决方案，但各国和公司正在采用这些替代方案，以便从其他地方采购原油、精炼产品和其他商品，以替代曾经通过霍尔木兹海峡来自波斯湾国家的部分产品。这包括美国的石油，因为美国的原油出口在四月底创下了新高。</p>
<p>根据 Veson Nautical 的数据，从西向东、朝向亚洲的绕过好望角的油轮和干散货运输能力约为 7800 万吨，这是衡量船舶可承载量的标准。朝向美洲和欧洲的流量约为 7700 万吨。</p>
<p>与战争开始后的第一周，即 3 月 6 日结束的一周的 6400 万吨和 6360 万吨相比，情况有所变化。</p>
<p>查看巴拿马运河，数据分析公司 Kpler 表示，连接太平洋和大西洋的设施的每周油轮通行量在五月初上升至 76 艘，而三月初每周为 57 艘。</p>
<p>一些通过巴拿马运河的油轮正在运输原油，但其他一些则是将汽油和其他原油蒸馏物从美国墨西哥湾沿岸运输到美国西海岸，后者在很大程度上依赖于来自其他地方的汽油，Bloomberg Intelligence 的分析师 Brett Gibbs 说。这些航程中有一些是由外国船只完成的，因为美国暂时放弃了琼斯法案。他表示，特朗普政府在三月发布了对 1920 年法律的 60 天豁免，该法律限制了美国目的地之间的水上石油运输，仅限于美国注册和建造的船只。</p>
<p>他说，从东向西经过好望角的许多船只可能正在向欧洲运输精炼产品。西向东的交通主要是亚洲买家转向美国采购原油，Gibbs 说。</p>
<p>即使绕过好望角的风险较小，尽管这是一条更长的航程——根据目的地，亚洲到欧洲的航程增加约两周。即使霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，美国、以色列和伊朗达成协议，风险厌恶的航运公司仍可能继续偏好绕过好望角的通行，Gibbs 说。</p>
<p>这一航线在四月中旬开始显示出交通量的上升。这反映了公司和国家在危机展开时首先处理库存的情况，Gibbs 说。</p>
<p>集装箱航线也进行了类似的调整，尽管增加了成本和航程，集装箱运输公司仍然继续偏好安全的好望角航线。</p>
<p>几十艘原油油轮已经通过海峡，缓解了能源市场的压力，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋加大了通过管道运输部分能源产品的努力。</p>
<p>但这远远低于每天通过海峡运输的约 2000 万桶原油和原油产品。根据一些计算，全球每天缺少 1000 万到 1200 万桶这些产品。</p>
<p>原油库存迅速减少，导致全球能源价格上涨，包括美国，零售汽油的全国平均价格正逐渐接近每加仑 5 美元，正值夏季需求高峰即将来临之际。原油期货（CL00）（BRN00）徘徊在每桶 100 美元左右。</p>
<p>上周，伊朗成立了波斯湾海峡管理局，旨在宣示其在该水道的主导地位。摩根大通的分析师在周二的一份报告中表示，这是对全球最重要的石油瓶颈施加影响的更微妙方式。</p>
<p>他们表示，&#34;伊朗似乎并不是要完全关闭海峡，而是寻求对其进行监管。&#34;</p>
<p>德黑兰允许遵循规则并获得事先授权的船只通行，这导致最近几天通过的油轮数量有所增加，尽管这一数字仍远低于战争前每天约 135 次的通行量，甚至低于四月中旬超过 20 次的通行量，那时人们对美国和伊朗达成协议的希望未能实现。</p>
<p>目前尚不清楚在新系统下是否会收取费用。在冲突早期，伊朗据报道对几艘船的安全通行收取过过路费，或在谈判后允许友好国家的船只通行。伊朗的最新举动被批评为违反国际海事法。</p>
<p>美国试图开辟自己的霍尔木兹安全通道，设立一条紧贴阿曼海岸的航道，但所谓的自由行动几乎没有启动就被特朗普总统叫停，他表示要给谈判更多时间。</p>
<p>一些海湾国家如沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋已专注于通过管道出口其石油。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯最近表示，其东 - 西管道将能源出口输送到红海的港口，已达到每日 700 万桶的最大容量。阿联酋在周五表示，正在加快一个管道项目，期望通过富查伊拉港口城市将出口能力翻倍，该地有多个石油和工业设施。现有管道每天可运输高达 180 万桶的石油。</p>
<p>运输石油向西至红海或向东南至阿曼湾的管道 “仅能运输通常通过油轮运输的一小部分”，能源咨询和采购公司 Tradition Energy 的市场研究主任 Gary Cunningham 表示。</p>
<p>这样的项目通常需要数年才能完成，因此管道可能 “更多是为了阻止伊朗在未来将霍尔木兹海峡作为经济武器，而不是对当前问题的真正缓解，” 他说。</p>
<p>阅读：霍尔木兹海峡在未来可能变得不那么重要 - 这是为什么</p>
<p>阿联酋的管道项目目前正在建设中，预计将在 2027 年投入运营，该国表示。关于该设施的先前时间表或具体路线尚无消息。</p>
<p>“我的理解是，这将沿着现有路线进行，这在地形和任何管道所需的前期开发工作方面都是合理的，” 莱斯大学能源研究中心的高级主任 Kenneth Medlock 表示。</p>
<p>富查伊拉的多个设施在战争中遭到据称是伊朗的无人机和导弹攻击，部分设施需要数年才能修复。管道并非免受攻击，但相对来说对无人机攻击具有一定的韧性，并且可以快速修复，Medlock 表示。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹危机的长期解决方案将包括更多的管道，无论是通过恢复退役设施还是增加新路线。尽管霍尔木兹长期以来被认为是全球经济最重要的瓶颈之一，但这样的项目一直被视为过于昂贵和雄心勃勃而无法尝试。战争改变了这种计算。</p>
<p>“我们确实认为，中东能源出口国将得出这样的结论，即这样的投资是必要的，因为伊朗将始终保留在未来干扰油轮交通的能力，” Catalyst Funds 的投资组合经理 Simon Lack 表示。“霍尔木兹海峡的重要性将逐渐降低，但这需要很多年。”</p>
<p>不要错过：由于伊朗战争，集装箱航运路线正在变化 - 商品价格可能会上涨。</p>
<p>-Claudia Assis -Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和华尔街日报独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-19-26 1214ET</p>

西方石油

美国布伦特原油期货基金

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

<p>由于霍尔木兹海峡几乎停滞，原油和成品油现在需要走更长的路线，绕过非洲好望角和通过巴拿马运河的油轮交通达到了创纪录的高点。美国的原油出口激增，尽管一些油轮缓解了能源市场的压力，但全球每天仍缺少 1000 万到 1200 万桶。这一中断正在推高全球能源价格，随着夏季需求的临近，美国汽油价格接近每加仑 5 美元</p>

<p>By Claudia Assis and Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Claudia Assis 和 Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>Tanker transits around the Cape of Good Hope and through the Panama Canal hit highs recently</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，绕过好望角和通过巴拿马运河的油轮通行量达到了新高</p>
</div><p>Pipelines that transport oil from the Persian Gulf &#34;only carry a fraction of what normally travels via tanker,&#34; said Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Tradition Energy 的 Gary Cunningham 表示，从波斯湾运输石油的管道 &#34;仅运输了通常通过油轮运输的一小部分&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Crude oil and vital crude products such as gasoline and cooking gas are taking the long way to their destinations, as the near-standstill at the Strait of Hormuz has forced countries to meet their energy needs via routes that were relatively quiet only a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于霍尔木兹海峡几乎停滞不前，原油和重要的原油产品如汽油和液化气正在绕道前往目的地，各国被迫通过几个月前相对安静的路线来满足其能源需求。</p>
</div><p>Tanker and dry-bulk-vessel traffic around Africa's Cape of Good Hope is about 20% higher, as measured by vessel capacity, than before the U.S. and Israel launched the war with Iran at the end of February. It reached a record high in mid-April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自美国和以色列在二月底与伊朗开战以来，绕过非洲好望角的油轮和干散货船的交通量按船舶运载能力计算比之前高出约 20%。在四月中旬达到了历史最高点。</p>
</div><p>Tanker traffic through the Panama Canal is also increasing, hitting the highest level in at least five years in late March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过巴拿马运河的油轮交通量也在增加，三月底达到了至少五年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>These routes represent imperfect solutions, but they are workarounds that countries and companies are embracing as they go elsewhere to procure their crude, refined products and other commodities to replace at least some of the products that used to come from Persian Gulf countries through Hormuz. That includes U.S. oil, as U.S. crude exports hit a record in late April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些路线虽然不是完美的解决方案，但各国和公司正在采用这些替代方案，以便从其他地方采购原油、精炼产品和其他商品，以替代曾经通过霍尔木兹海峡来自波斯湾国家的部分产品。这包括美国的石油，因为美国的原油出口在四月底创下了新高。</p>
</div><p>According to Veson Nautical, tanker and dry-bulk shipping capacity moving around the Cape of Good Hope from west to east, toward Asia, stands at about 78 million deadweight tonnage, which is a measure of how much a ship can carry. Flows from east to west, toward the Americas and Europe, are around 77 million DWT.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Veson Nautical 的数据，从西向东、朝向亚洲的绕过好望角的油轮和干散货运输能力约为 7800 万吨，这是衡量船舶可承载量的标准。朝向美洲和欧洲的流量约为 7700 万吨。</p>
</div><p>That is compared with 64 million DWT and 63.6 million DWT, respectively, in the week ended March 6, the first full week after the start of the war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与战争开始后的第一周，即 3 月 6 日结束的一周的 6400 万吨和 6360 万吨相比，情况有所变化。</p>
</div><p>Looking at the Panama Canal, data-analytics company Kpler said that weekly tanker transits through the facility linking the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have risen to 76 in early May, the latest available week, compared with 57 a week in early March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看巴拿马运河，数据分析公司 Kpler 表示，连接太平洋和大西洋的设施的每周油轮通行量在五月初上升至 76 艘，而三月初每周为 57 艘。</p>
</div><p>Some of the tankers transiting the Panama Canal are carrying crude oil, but others are carrying gasoline and other crude distillates from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the U.S. West Coast, which is heavily dependent on gasoline from elsewhere, said Brett Gibbs, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Some of those trips are being made by foreign-flagged ships because the U.S. temporarily waived the Jones Act, he said. The Trump administration in March issued a 60-day waiver of the 1920 law, which restricts waterborne oil shipments between U.S. destinations to ships that are U.S.-flagged and U.S.-built.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些通过巴拿马运河的油轮正在运输原油，但其他一些则是将汽油和其他原油蒸馏物从美国墨西哥湾沿岸运输到美国西海岸，后者在很大程度上依赖于来自其他地方的汽油，Bloomberg Intelligence 的分析师 Brett Gibbs 说。这些航程中有一些是由外国船只完成的，因为美国暂时放弃了琼斯法案。他表示，特朗普政府在三月发布了对 1920 年法律的 60 天豁免，该法律限制了美国目的地之间的水上石油运输，仅限于美国注册和建造的船只。</p>
</div><p>Many of the ships taking the Cape of Good Hope route from east to west are likely carrying refined products to Europe, he said. West-to-east traffic is likely mostly Asian buyers turning to the U.S. for their crude oil, Gibbs said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，从东向西经过好望角的许多船只可能正在向欧洲运输精炼产品。西向东的交通主要是亚洲买家转向美国采购原油，Gibbs 说。</p>
</div><p>Going around the cape is less risky even if it's a longer trip - it adds about two weeks to an Asia-to-Europe route, depending on destinations. For the balance of 2026, even if Hormuz reopens and the U.S., Israel and Iran reach a deal, risk-averse shippers are likely to continue to favor passage around the cape, Gibbs said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使绕过好望角的风险较小，尽管这是一条更长的航程——根据目的地，亚洲到欧洲的航程增加约两周。即使霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，美国、以色列和伊朗达成协议，风险厌恶的航运公司仍可能继续偏好绕过好望角的通行，Gibbs 说。</p>
</div><p>This route started to show an uptick in traffic around mid-April. That reflects how companies and countries first worked through inventories as the crisis unfolded, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一航线在四月中旬开始显示出交通量的上升。这反映了公司和国家在危机展开时首先处理库存的情况，Gibbs 说。</p>
</div><p>Container routes have been similarly rearranged, with container-shipping companies continuing to favor the safety of the cape route, even though it adds to the cost and length of their trips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>集装箱航线也进行了类似的调整，尽管增加了成本和航程，集装箱运输公司仍然继续偏好安全的好望角航线。</p>
</div><p>A few dozen crude tankers have transited out of the strait, taking some pressure off energy markets, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have stepped up efforts to move some of their energy products through pipelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几十艘原油油轮已经通过海峡，缓解了能源市场的压力，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋加大了通过管道运输部分能源产品的努力。</p>
</div><p>But that's nowhere close to the about 20 million barrels of crude and crude products that used to move through the strait every day. By some calculations, the world is missing between 10 million and 12 million barrels a day of those products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这远远低于每天通过海峡运输的约 2000 万桶原油和原油产品。根据一些计算，全球每天缺少 1000 万到 1200 万桶这些产品。</p>
</div><p>Crude stockpiles are quickly dwindling, leading to higher energy prices around the world, including in the U.S., where the national average for retail gasoline has been creeping up closer to $5 a gallon just as peak summer demand approaches. Crude-oil futures (CL00) (BRN00) are hovering around $100 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油库存迅速减少，导致全球能源价格上涨，包括美国，零售汽油的全国平均价格正逐渐接近每加仑 5 美元，正值夏季需求高峰即将来临之际。原油期货（CL00）（BRN00）徘徊在每桶 100 美元左右。</p>
</div><p>Iran last week created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority with the aim of asserting its dominance in the waterway. It's a subtler way to exert leverage over the world's most important oil chokepoint, analysts at J.P. Morgan said in a note Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，伊朗成立了波斯湾海峡管理局，旨在宣示其在该水道的主导地位。摩根大通的分析师在周二的一份报告中表示，这是对全球最重要的石油瓶颈施加影响的更微妙方式。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Rather than closing the strait outright, Iran appears to be seeking to regulate it,&#34; they said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们表示，&#34;伊朗似乎并不是要完全关闭海峡，而是寻求对其进行监管。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Tehran is allowing vessels that follow rules and obtain prior authorization to transit, which has led to an uptick in tankers making the crossing in recent days, although the number is still far from the about 135 daily crossings before the war or even from a mid-April spurt of more than 20 daily crossings that came amid hopes for a deal between the U.S. and Iran, which has failed to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德黑兰允许遵循规则并获得事先授权的船只通行，这导致最近几天通过的油轮数量有所增加，尽管这一数字仍远低于战争前每天约 135 次的通行量，甚至低于四月中旬超过 20 次的通行量，那时人们对美国和伊朗达成协议的希望未能实现。</p>
</div><p>It is unclear if payments are being exacted under the new system. Earlier in the conflict, Iran reportedly charged tolls for the safe passage of several ships or allowed the transit of ships of friendly nations after negotiations. Iran's latest move has been criticized as violating international maritime law.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前尚不清楚在新系统下是否会收取费用。在冲突早期，伊朗据报道对几艘船的安全通行收取过过路费，或在谈判后允许友好国家的船只通行。伊朗的最新举动被批评为违反国际海事法。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. attempted to carve out its own Hormuz safe passage with a shipping lane hugging the Oman coast, but the so-called Operation Freedom barely got off the ground before President Donald Trump halted it, saying that he was giving more time for negotiations to work.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国试图开辟自己的霍尔木兹安全通道，设立一条紧贴阿曼海岸的航道，但所谓的自由行动几乎没有启动就被特朗普总统叫停，他表示要给谈判更多时间。</p>
</div><p>Some Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. have focused on exporting their oil through pipelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些海湾国家如沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋已专注于通过管道出口其石油。</p>
</div><p>Saudi Arabia said recently that its East-West pipeline, which sends energy exports to a port in the Red Sea, had reached its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels a day. And the U.A.E. on Friday said it was fast-tracking a pipeline project, hoping to double its export capacity through the port city of Fujairah, the location of several oil and industrial facilities. The existing pipeline carries up to 1.8 million barrels of oil a day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯最近表示，其东 - 西管道将能源出口输送到红海的港口，已达到每日 700 万桶的最大容量。阿联酋在周五表示，正在加快一个管道项目，期望通过富查伊拉港口城市将出口能力翻倍，该地有多个石油和工业设施。现有管道每天可运输高达 180 万桶的石油。</p>
</div><p>Pipelines that transport oil westward to the Red Sea or southeast to the Gulf of Oman &#34;only carry a fraction of what normally travels via tanker,&#34; said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at energy consulting and procurement firm Tradition Energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>运输石油向西至红海或向东南至阿曼湾的管道 “仅能运输通常通过油轮运输的一小部分”，能源咨询和采购公司 Tradition Energy 的市场研究主任 Gary Cunningham 表示。</p>
</div><p>Such projects also take years to complete, so pipelines might be &#34;more of a solution to stop Iran from using the strait as an economic weapon in the future than any real relief to the issues of today,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样的项目通常需要数年才能完成，因此管道可能 “更多是为了阻止伊朗在未来将霍尔木兹海峡作为经济武器，而不是对当前问题的真正缓解，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>Read: The Strait of Hormuz could matter a lot less in the future - here's how</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：霍尔木兹海峡在未来可能变得不那么重要 - 这是为什么</p>
</div><p>The U.A.E. pipeline project is currently under construction and is expected to become operational in 2027, that country said. There was no word on the previous timeline for the facility or on a precise route.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿联酋的管道项目目前正在建设中，预计将在 2027 年投入运营，该国表示。关于该设施的先前时间表或具体路线尚无消息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;My understanding is that this will follow the existing route, which makes sense given the terrain and predevelopment work that is required for any pipeline,&#34; said Kenneth Medlock, senior director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我的理解是，这将沿着现有路线进行，这在地形和任何管道所需的前期开发工作方面都是合理的，” 莱斯大学能源研究中心的高级主任 Kenneth Medlock 表示。</p>
</div><p>Several facilities at Fujairah have been damaged during the war by alleged Iranian drone and missile attacks, and some will take years to repair. Pipelines are not immune to attacks, but they are relatively resilient to drone attacks and can be repaired quickly, Medlock said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富查伊拉的多个设施在战争中遭到据称是伊朗的无人机和导弹攻击，部分设施需要数年才能修复。管道并非免受攻击，但相对来说对无人机攻击具有一定的韧性，并且可以快速修复，Medlock 表示。</p>
</div><p>Longer-term solutions for the Hormuz crisis would include even more pipelines, either by reviving decommissioned facilities or adding routes. Even though Hormuz has been long known as one of the most consequential chokepoints for the global economy, such projects had been viewed as too expensive and too ambitious to attempt. The war changed that calculus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹危机的长期解决方案将包括更多的管道，无论是通过恢复退役设施还是增加新路线。尽管霍尔木兹长期以来被认为是全球经济最重要的瓶颈之一，但这样的项目一直被视为过于昂贵和雄心勃勃而无法尝试。战争改变了这种计算。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We do think that Middle East energy exporters will conclude that such investments are necessary because Iran will always retain the ability to disrupt tanker traffic in the future,&#34; said Simon Lack, a portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds. &#34;Gradually the Strait of Hormuz will lose importance, but it will take many years.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们确实认为，中东能源出口国将得出这样的结论，即这样的投资是必要的，因为伊朗将始终保留在未来干扰油轮交通的能力，” Catalyst Funds 的投资组合经理 Simon Lack 表示。“霍尔木兹海峡的重要性将逐渐降低，但这需要很多年。”</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Container shipping routes are shifting due to the Iran war - prices of goods could go higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：由于伊朗战争，集装箱航运路线正在变化 - 商品价格可能会上涨。</p>
</div><p>-Claudia Assis -Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Claudia Assis -Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和华尔街日报独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-19-26 1214ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-19-26 1214ET</p>
</div>

Crude oil is going the long way around the world as countries scramble to plug Hormuz supply hole

Dow Jones

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

能源业 ETF - SPDR

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

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由于各国争相填补霍尔木兹供应缺口，原油正在绕道全球运输